Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition

The gap narrows in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds strong support for a clean energy target.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day. What we do have in the report is that 65% support a clean energy target, 74% back support for renewable energy and “a majority” support Labor’s goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Sixty-one per cent say the government is not doing enough “to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy” (down from 71% in February), with only 15% saying it is doing enough (steady). Forty-two per cent say Tony Abbott should remain in parliament (down a point since April), with 30% saying he should remain (down two).

The fortnightly YouGov poll maintains the usual peculiarities of the series, most notably a headline two-party figure showing the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, based on low primary votes for the major parties and a strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition (two-thirds, along with 27% of Greens preferences and half of the remainder). With preference flows like those of the 2016 election, Labor would come out about 52.5-47.5 ahead. The primary votes are Coalition 34% (steady), Labor 32% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 11% (up two). The poll also found 67% had voted in the same-sex marriage survey, of whom 61% voted yes and 35% no. The remainder, including the 20% still likely to vote, broke 54% to 28% in favour. Thirty per cent said companies declaring their support for same-sex marriage gave them a more favourable view of their brand, compared with 20% less favourable and 46% no difference.

Other findings: 37% thought the Constitution should be changed to allow dual citizens to run for parliament, with 45% opposed; 56% favoured stricter gun laws, compared with 7% for less strict and 34% for “remain about the same”; and 42% would deem it a bad thing if the government dropped its clean energy targets for 2020, compared with 32% for good thing. Asked to pick out of a list of 16 most important issues for the next election, health came out tops on 44% (though this was down five since August), with unemployment, living standards and the economy next placed on 30% each.

Note also that a Queensland state results from Newspoll came out overnight, which you can read about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,690 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Shorten_Suite: .@JulieBishopMP tells @RNBreakfast she was “not aware of the specific details” of energy plan discussed at Cabinet last night #auspol

  2. …and that’s the other side of the coin. Promise tax cuts and you’ll win votes. Deliver them, and two weeks later people have forgotten all about them.

    A couple of hundred dollars off the yearly power bills will go unnoticed (if it were a one off hit, yes; but $25-30 a quarter gets put down to normal fluctuation, at best).

    And the Coalition promised to take $500 off electricity bills, and people know that didn’t happen, so it’s not a promise that they’ll trust.

    The ‘preventative’ side of it – ‘you would have had ten powercuts this summer, but you’ve had none” – is even harder to sell.

    A riskier strategy – ‘in the 2017/8 summer you had ten powercuts, in the 2018/9 you won’t have any because we’ve solved the problem’ – risks having people think you waited too long to act (if they think you can deliver on it at all).

    AND Malcolm is interfering in the operation of private businesses, which will upset some people with very deep pockets, who are more and more interested in having a government which will provide investment certainty; and undermines arguments about privatisation and the benefits of small government – basically, p*ssing off the Coalition’s true base, which is big business.

    The politics of this is atrocious. If Turnbull had the nous to stand up to the RWNJs , whatever happened as a result could not be as damaging to his government – let alone the country or the planet – as what he’s doing now.

  3. guytaur @ #47 Tuesday, October 17th, 2017 – 8:29 am

    Kieran_Gilbert: $115 save for average Aust household power bill under Govt’s “reliability guarantee”, Finkle projected a $90 save under his CET #auspol

    TheKouk: 30 cents a day … twitter.com/Kieran_Gilbert…

    Which also doesn’t even begin to factor in how much extra in insurance people will have to pay because the Insurance Industry sure does believe in Climate Change and really wishes that Fossil Fool governments beholden to the Fossil Fuel Industry, the equivalent of the 20th century’s tobacco industry vice-like grip on Conservative political parties via their outsize donations, would just get real!

  4. political_alert: Shadow Energy Minister @Mark_Butler_MP will hold a doorstop on the Government’s latest energy plan, 9:15AM APH #auspol

  5. Morning bludgers

    I watched the Hillary Clinton interview on fourcorners. It revealed nothing I didn’t already know, but surprisingly found it worthwhile anyway

  6. When you read absolute crap like this:
    Nationals MP Andrew Broad said it was important to free up gas supply as an immediate measure to put downward pressure on prices but argued longer term efforts needed to be made to reconfigure the national coal-fired power fleet.

    As if a coal-fired power station is some kind of noble landship sallying forth to save the country from the enemy, SS Renewables, you just have to shake your head in wonderment at the gormlessness and utter deviancy of The Nationals. What a toxic combination.

  7. Meanwhile, ABC radio news lead story”

    Govt abandons CET in favour of reducing prices and guaranteeing reliability. Or something.

  8. “JulieBishopMP tells @RNBreakfast she was “not aware of the specific details” of energy plan discussed at Cabinet last night “

    Did she sleep through last night’s Cabinet meeting?

  9. srpeatling: .@RichardDiNatale: “The laws of physics mean when u put more coal in the system, u get more emissions. U can’t ignore the laws of physics.”

  10. victoria:

    I haven’t watched it, but am laughing at Assange’s outburst in response to it. He really has a problem with women leaders doesn’t he?

  11. Zoomster – for the libs, the next election is going to be two months of screaming that the greenies are going to have you living in caves. If it works, we don’t deserve to survive as a species. But you never know

  12. Guytaur – Turnbull doesn’t care about policy. He just wants to prance around being PM and scream “I made it”. That’s why he does his stupid selfies in trains. It’s his way of getting affirmation from the little people. None of what is happening is his fault. Survival is success, as far as he’s concerned. Nothing else is.

  13. “Liberals can’t be trusted to deliver lower power prices, their record speaks for itself” would have thought it writes itself

  14. adrian

    Oh gawd! Today’s daily govt minister 10 minute fireside chat on AM belonged to Ms Cash.

    10 seconds was enough me.

    *********************************

    ……… definitely fingernails down the blackboard stuff …..

  15. Fess

    You know my feelings on Assange. But one thing I will give him is that he is super smart, so dear old Assange knows he is f@@ked.

  16. NewYorker: When the conversation in a meeting turned to gay rights, Donald Trump motioned toward Mike Pence and joked: nyer.cm/duItLH7 pic.twitter.com/SMW3E0PczI

  17. So govt has flick-passed the problem to retailers and energy board. This is like their 2013 pamphlet – all glossy pix but no actual plan except to say, more coal.

  18. Barnaby Joyce is due to hand down an update on the Northern Australia White Paper (remember that? It was to turn the north into an “economic powerhouse”?) and Labor’s Jason Clare has had some thoughts:

    “Two and a half years ago they announced the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility. Two and a half years on bugger all has happened. No money has been allocated to infrastructure projects and no jobs have been created. It’s just a great example of a government which talks a big game and doesn’t deliver. Today when Barnaby Joyce comes into the Parliament to give an update to the Australian people on their Northern Australia plans he needs to explain what the hold-up is.”

    Joyce took over the portfolio when Matt Canavan stepped down from the ministry during the citizenship kerfuffle.

    Guardian live.

  19. Astropysicists have detected gravitational waves generated by a titanic explosion resulting from the collision of neutron stars in a distant galaxy. A neutron star is an extremely dense and massive object, a dead star weighing more than the Sun, packed into a blob a few kilometres across:

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/technology/technology-news/revelation-of-cosmic-secrets-triggers-a-frenzy-of-global-scientific-activity-20171015-gz1hmw.html

    The explosion is believed to have created a mass of gold equivalent to the size of Earth, together with platinum, uranium and other heavy elements. Unfortunately, no coal.

  20. srpeatling: Labor’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler: “Tony Abbott’s right wing agenda for Australia is now complete.”

  21. But-but-
    One Nation isn’t living in the 21C. Does she know what she means? No, just a thought bubble.

    Pauline Hanson ✔@PaulineHansonOz
    Good to see the Gov plans to scrap RET & CET like One Nation has been suggesting. About time they joined us in the 21st century. -PH #auspol

  22. An old RW fossil thinks the lycra wearer is fantastic:

    Abbott tells it like it is
    JOHN STONE
    Tony Abbott’s London speech was one of the most outstanding speeches in years by any Australian politician.

    (Oz headline)

  23. Darn @ #30 Tuesday, October 17th, 2017 – 4:46 am

    So it seems that Turnbull’s grand plan will lower the cost of electricity by $2.20 a week for the average family. Not even a cup of coffee. I don’t think anyone will be getting too excited about that.

    You’ll get that $2.20 in the same envelope as your cheque for $550, which you’re still waiting for.

    Don’t hold your breath.

  24. Unbelievable. -Turnbull goes full Trump.
    Fucking Turnbull is going to appoint his former chief of staff – a complete Know Nothing on energy – as head of AEMO.
    This will supplant either the position or the authority of Audrey Zibelman the new current head of AEMO, who has extensive experience including sorting out the grid after hurricane Sandy on the US east coast.
    e.g.

    ….. AEMO as Chief Executive Officer on 20 March 2017. Audrey has extensive international experience in the public, private and not-for profit energy sectors, most recently having held the position of Chair of the New York State Public Service Commission (NYPSC), where she was responsible for overseeing the regulation and safety of New York’s electricity, gas, telephone, cable, water and steam utilities. Prior to joining NYPSC, Ms Zibelman was the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of GO15 member organisation, PJM, a system operator organisation responsible for operating the power grid and wholesale power market which serves 14 states across the eastern United States.

    (from AEMO website)
    Instead Turnbull wants to replace an experienced professional, who is likely to challenge his stupidity, with a tame political hack to “ensure continuity of supply”.
    UNCONSCIONABLE


  25. Steve777

    You get to a point in life where you just don’t care and the gray stubble is easier than a shave,

    Or at least have days like that. Stubble doesn’t work for me, just makes me look like I spent the night on a park bench.

    Exactly.

  26. guytaur @ #68 Tuesday, October 17th, 2017 – 8:23 am

    BK

    Another excellent Dawn Patrol from you this morning. Thank you.

    Hope life is going well 🙂

    Yes guytaur, all is well. This morning after putting the Dawn Patrol together I fed the horses, cleaned their stables, cleaned out at refilled two cattle troughs, cut a lot of grass around the stables and cut more around the dam. And then it was 7:30! Time for a rest methinks, although the little grandson has arrived and reminded me of a carpentry project I promised to share with him.

  27. One unannounced feature of the government’s energy plan is incentives for backyard coal fired mini power stations:

    In a move set to further heat up the national energy debate, an Australian startup has launched the first ever in-home coal-fired micro generation unit.

    Start up Power Miner says the units, which go on sale on Monday for $4,999 including installation, will give households a way to benefit from the unused fuel available following the closure of coal-fired generators in Australia.

    Each unit takes up the space of an average-sized family fridge. The bottom section is reserved for water to prevent the unit from overheating, and small lumps of coal can be fed in through a wooden shaft at the top.

    https://energylocals.com.au/power-miner-to-launch-in-home-coal-power-station/

  28. BK

    Glad to hear it. However you make my morning ritual seem lazy by comparison. The only animal I ever had to look after was a cat.

    Sounds like a great morning coming up. 🙂


  29. citizen

    An old RW fossil thinks the lycra wearer is fantastic:

    Abbott tells it like it is
    JOHN STONE
    Tony Abbott’s London speech was one of the most outstanding speeches in years by any Australian politician.

    (Oz headline)

    The man who stopped the Australia card and ex Queensland National senator; born 1929; I wonder how the years have treated him?

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