BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. Keith Windschuttle is such a ratbag even Gerard Henderson has had a go at him (SMH, December 2004)

    [ The problem with Windschuttle’s work is that, at times, you get the impression that he is a former Marxist – turned political conservative – who is waging a personal war on the very left-wing interpretation of Australian history that he once both embraced and proclaimed. His revisionism is essential reading for anyone who wants to join the debate on Australian history. Yet, because his history contains a substantial degree of personal polemic, it sometimes lacks empathy.

    For example, in his revisionist interpretation concerning the fate of the Tasmanian Aborigines, Windschuttle recorded that “only” about 120 had been killed. His assertion has not been disproved, yet the word “only” was regrettable. It is much the same with his current work. Relying on contemporary sources and Myra Willard’s 1923 History of the White Australia Policy, Windschuttle argues that the WAP was introduced for economic and nationalistic reasons and was not motivated primarily by race.]

  2. shellbell

    Keith Windschuttle is such a ratbag even Gerard Henderson has had a go at him (SMH, December 2004)

    For example, in his revisionist interpretation concerning the fate of the Tasmanian Aborigines, Windschuttle recorded that “only” about 120 had been killed. His assertion has not been disproved.

    I think wikipedia gives a more accurate account.

  3. Trump floats conspiracy by Democrats, FBI and Russia to pay for ‘pee pee tape’ dossier

    President Donald Trump on Thursday suggested that the infamous “pee-pee tape” dossier that alleged he got a “golden shower” from Russian prostitutes was concocted by a conspiracy between the Democratic Party, the FBI, and the Russian government.

    “Workers of firm involved with the discredited and Fake Dossier take the 5th,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Who paid for it, Russia, the FBI or the Dems (or all)?”

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump

    Workers of firm involved with the discredited and Fake Dossier take the 5th. Who paid for it, Russia, the FBI or the Dems (or all)?

    The dossier, which was compiled by former British spy Christopher Steele, alleges that the Russian government has been cultivating Trump as a potential asset for years. Although the dossier’s allegations about Trump’s sexual activities in Russia have not been verified, some of its other allegations are apparently being taken seriously by special counsel Robert Mueller, who has been tasked with investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

  4. ‘The face of the Resistance’: Internet gobsmacked after George W. Bush delivers ‘remarkable’ anti-Trump screed

    George W. Bush on Thursday delivered a stunning address at his namesake presidential center, issuing a brutal takedown of Donald Trump without ever saying the president’s name.

    “Bullying and prejudice in our public life sets a national tone, provides permission for cruelty and bigotry, and compromises the moral education of children,” Bush said in the 16-minute speech. “The only way to pass along civic values is to first live up to them.”

  5. New Poll Shows You’re Not Alone. America Thinks Trump Is One Of The Worst Presidents Ever

    A new Marist Poll found that 59% of Americans already believe that Donald Trump will go down as one of the worst presidents in history.

    Via The Marist Poll:

    Nearly six in ten Americans, 58%, believe Mr. Trump will be remembered as either one of the worst presidents in the nation’s history, 42%, or a below average leader, 16%. About one in five, 19%, think he will be considered an average president. Just 18% say Trump will be thought of as either an above average president, 11%, or one of the best presidents in U.S. history, 7%.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Over to you Mesma!
    Meanwhile North Korea has taken the unprecedented step of writing to the Australian Parliament in a blistering letter that demonises US President Donald Trump and which offers Australia “assurances of its highest consideration”. James Massola reports.
    The Australian Energy Council, has provided cautious approval for the Turnbull government’s National Energy Guarantee, while warning significant design work was still required and that a carbon price is an inevitable outcome of the scheme.
    John Hewson has said that the Turnbull Government’s National Energy Guarantee (NEG) is a Clayton’s emissions intensity scheme – that is, the EIS that you are having when you have explicitly ruled it out previously. This will fire Abbott up!
    And Peter Hannam writes that Renewable energy’s share of the electricity sector will plateau from 2020 under the Turnbull government’s new energy plan, which critics say will make it harder for Australia to meet its climate goals and dent jobs in the industry.
    Turnbull’s new energy policy is fuelling anxiety among government MPs, who are liken-ing it to a “cap and trade” carbon scheme and demanding that emissions reductions be delayed as long as possible to minimise costs. Google.
    Mark Butler says if state governments don’t veto the Turnbull government’s national energy guarantee, and if the policy passes into law, Labor will ramp up the level of emissions reduction in the event it wins the next federal election.
    The Coalition’s new energy plan fails on every dimension: energy, environment and politics, writes Ben Eltham. The only winner is Tony Abbott. He says a plan beyond 2030 is required for energy investment. Much faster decarbonisation is also needed. The NEG provides neither.
    Coal is to Turnbull’s new National Energy Guarantee what copper was to his lacklustre version of the National Broadband Network, writes The Independent Australia’s managing editor Dave Donovan. Dave is on the money,–guaranteed,10836
    Abbott needs to go back to bible class if he wants to quote it on climate change.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    The Law Council has praised Labor’s stand against mandatory minimum sentences for sexual offences against children as Peter Dutton and the justice minister, Michael Keenan, step up their attack over the controversial measure.
    Michelle Grattan says that the rift between Brandis and Dutton deepens as the behemoth of Home Affairs rises.
    Catherine McGregor explains why the Liberal Party is facing oblivion.
    A 26-year study find rising temperatures could cause soils to release carbon on a scale with the potential to accelerate climate change even further,,10837
    Sean Nicholls writes that when it comes to representation by women the NSW government has some parallels with Saudi Arabia.
    And it’s not only in NSW! Anger has erupted in the Victorian Liberal Party over treatment of women, after a young female student claimed she was so intimidated by a Liberal club president that she needed security to escort her around campus.
    Bill Scales, who was right in the middle of it, writes about the rise and fall of the Australian automotive industry. Google.
    How fake news spreads on Facebook, and why it’s so difficult to stop.
    A senior Reserve Bank official has flagged concerns about the “awful lot” of apartments due to flood the Brisbane property market, and the potential hit facing investors who had bet on making capital gains.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Stephen Koukoulas writes that the employment results are at odds with just about every other indicator in the economy. Either they are misleading or the employment data are misleading he says.
    Canberra’s safety watchdog will not launch a prosecution over a bridge collapse that hospitalised nine workers and, for good reason, unions are not happy.
    Rates of home ownership among young Australians have taken a battering in recent years thanks to turbocharged growth in the cost of housing – and the trend looks set to continue, a new report has found.
    The Government’s latest attempt to prop up the profits of the private health insurance funds, courtesy of federal Health Minister Greg Hunt’s reform package, will achieve little for members, says John Menadue who argues the case for abolishing the $11 billion a year Private Health Insurance subsidy.
    This headmaster’s got the right idea.
    Tracey Spicer says she will reveal the names of “long-term offenders” of sexual harassment in Australia’s media industry, and has called on her social media followers to share their stories of harassment and abuse. Has a tipping point been reached?
    How long do you have to live? The ABS has put up an interactive applet.
    The saga of the Ibrahim family continues.
    Thousands of people are living and working in six potentially flammable Melbourne high-rise towers while authorities argue with builders in court over who should fix them.
    Fairfax has done well in this year’s Walkey award nominations.

    Section 4 . . .

    Murray-Goulburn is in a classic death spiral. Google.
    The booming after-hours home doctors industry has been slammed for deploying under-qualified doctors, disrupting a regular GP’s continuity of care and demonstrating a “pricing failure”, and may soon face new restrictions.
    The Turnbull government’s landmark higher education reforms have been killed off in the Senate, with the Nick Xenophon Team rejecting key elements of the $2.8 billion package and calling for a “Gonski style” review of the university sector.
    Richard Wolffe writes that instead of standing on a pedestal, Trump clambers down into the gutter of Twitter where he can indulge in the pettiest form of politics.
    The SMH editorial farewells the Holden car.
    Paul Keating has his say against the proposed Victorian voluntary euthanasia legislation.
    And Kevin Donnelly from the Australian Catholic Church says that the Church’s child abuse record doesn’t disqualify it from opposing same-sex marriage.
    This is countered by a superb contribution from Richo who shares with us the travails of his major health issues. Google.
    Tony Abbott will once again address a controversial American Christian organisation which has been deemed a “hate group” and supports the criminalisation of homosexuality. And I suppose the taxpayer will stump up the cost of his pilgrimage.
    Tensions in Victoria’s Labor government over the assisted dying bill have spilled out in an accidental text message. Health Minister Jill Hennessy called Deputy Premier James Merlino a “c—” in a text message sent to him by mistake on Wednesday night

  10. Section 5 . . .

    Andrew Lamming doesn’t like the ACT’s pill testing program.
    More than 130 South Australian charities are set to lose their charity status because they have failed to lodge their financial information with the national regulator. Google.
    It’s incredible. In Brussels tonight, this tactless, inept, humiliated prime minister Theresa May will be the only thing keeping this nation on the plank it is walking.
    A nice contribution from Jacqui Maley on gender issues with kids’ toys and cartoon characters.

  11. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding with a suspiciously orgasmic Tony Abbott.

    Some perspective on domestic violence from Cathy Wilcox.

    Matt Golding and the NEG.

    Mark David celebrates Turnbull’s energy policy “success”.

    Peter Broelman and coal-powered policy development.

    Paul Zanetti joins the media salary game.

    Roy Taylor with a faulty power board.

    Matt Golding justifiably puts the boot into Trump.

    As does David Rowe!

    Pat Clement has a good dig too.
    David Pope on the demise of the Australian automotive industry. If only . . .
    And Golding sneaks us into the Crown Casino.

    Glen Le Lievre provides an art test for aspiring Australian cartoonists.

    Le Lievre gives us “Son of Coal”.

    Sean Leahy with another sacrifice.

    A cracker on the NEG from Alan Moir.

    Andrew Dyson calls out the NEG.

  12. Poroti

    The troubke with the Rupists is that they are used to UK tories getting an absolute majority of seats with 37% of the vote. Talk about “losers” winning.

    They just can’t get their little minds around the workings of a fairly elected Parliament. In fact the “winners” have over 50% of the votes and seats.

  13. swamprat

    I do love how well they are taking it at Mordor Media central 🙂

    Ean Higgins,Primrose Riordan
    NZ’s socialist-leaning Jacinda Ardern will form a ­Labour-led coalition government
    Greg Sheridan
    Trust the Kiwis. The thought of perhaps 10 years of good government was ultimately unbearable for them

  14. Fresh from his ‘victory’ over the car industry and renewables, I wonder which industry Truffles has in his sights for his next triumph? It was very hard to watch him in QT yesterday.

  15. Morning all

    Trump continuing to do his part to convince all he is losing the plot. Now he accuses FBI and Russia of collaborating against him.

  16. Sick And Twisted Trump Uses John Kelly’s Son’s Death To Defend Disrespect Of The Troops

    A press conference that was designed to manipulate and deflect criticism of Trump’s disrespect for the troops immediately backfired on White House Chief of Staff John Kelly.

    The daily briefing began with Kelly telling the moving story of how a soldier killed in combat comes home, but it quickly morphed into something much darker as Kelly described Trump as offering his condolences to the families in the best way that he could.

    Things really got ugly when Kelly attacks Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL) for listening in on Trump’s phone call with La David Johnson’s family

    Nowhere in Kelly’s press conference was there an apology to the families for any perception of disrespect. In fact, the families were not mentioned at all.

    Just to drive the authoritarian propaganda home, Kelly took questions, but only from journalists who knew a Gold Star family.

    Donald Trump golfed five times before he acknowledged the deaths of the four Green Berets in Niger. The performance at the daily press briefing by Kelly can’t excuse away Trump’s words, conduct, and lack of concern.

    There was no apology from the White House about Trump using the deaths of soldiers as political tools.

    The press conference was an ugly spectacle that demonstrated just how low those who work in this White House are willing to go.

  17. Puerto Rico Governor Shoots Down Trump As He Begs For Compliments On Hurricane Response

    Trump tried to fish for a compliment on the hurricane response from Gov. Ricardo Rossello but instead was completely shut down.

    THE PRESIDENT: Governor, I just want to maybe ask you a question. Because for the spirit of these people that have worked so hard and so long, like Tom and like Brock, and like so many others, did the United States — did our government — when we came in, did we do a great job? Military, first responders, FEMA — did we do a great job?

    GOVERNOR ROSSELLÓ: You responded immediately, sir. And you did so — Tom and Brock, they have been on the phone with me essentially every day since the disaster. We recognize that there are some logistical limitations that we have in Puerto Rico. We didn’t have the ports open for a couple of days. We didn’t have the airports working at full capacity until about a day or two ago.
    So that was always a very limiting step. Buy if you consider that we’ve gotten — even with those obstacles — we’ve gotten about 15,000 DOD personnel in Puerto Rico, about 2,000 FEMA personnel, HHS and others — the response is there. Do we need to do a lot more? Of course, we do. And I think everybody over here recognizes there’s a lot of work to be done in Puerto Rico. But with your leadership, sir, and with everybody over here, we’re committed to achieving that in the long run.

    That was not the answer that Donald Trump was looking for. Trump wanted to hear. Trump wanted to hear that he did a great job and the problem was solved. What he got was the most lukewarm response imaginable that was on par with, well you did respond to us. You may not have given us any aid for weeks, but hey, at least you responded.

  18. ‘Dozens, if not hundreds’ of Russian troll farms are still operating in the U.S. right now: report

    Russian troll farms are not necessarily a thing of the past, a new report reveals.

    According to McClatchy, “dozens, if not hundreds of troll networks” run by Russian operatives — many of which appear to be operating out of other countries like Albania, Cyprus and Macedonia — are still operating in the US, Michael Carpenter, an ex-Obama Defense Department official specializing in Russia, told the news network.

    These revelations come from a Russian-language report published on Tuesday that exposed the existence of what may be the largest “troll farm” yet — a St. Petersburg outfit where “80 to 90 employees devoted their time solely to posing as Americans and trying to lure U.S. citizens to interact with them.”

  19. Good Morning

    Good on Tracey Spicer. I hope it is the tipping point. Glad to see women are not letting a crisis go to waste.

  20. There’s steady light rain in Sydney this morning, with accumulations of about 6 to 9 millimetres, an amount which would not normally attract comment here other than the odd whinge. Not exactly drought-breaking but welcome. Inland areas in NSW have done well, with widespread falls of 20-30mm.

  21. poroti
    Those over at the Rupertarium have taken the NZ election result graciously

    Yes, and here’s a further selection from Greg Sheridan’s tantrum:
    Jacinda Ardern at 37 is an infant in politics. She has neither policy nor political achievements to her name. She became leader five minutes ago. During the campaign she made an absolute hash of tax ­policy. So naturally she won.

    Of course, when we say that Ardern won, we are only talking about winning under the wacky New Zealand mixed-member ­proportional-representation system.

    Ardern and Peters will almost certainly take New Zealand backwards.

  22. Poroti

    Socialist leaning …….. yes please. I’ll have more of that.

    Though i am sure that “socialist leaning” to the Rupists probably means only that Jacinta can read and write.

  23. Victoria

    Yes. Like Sessions he also did the no answer thing in committee without Presidential Privilege. For any that did not know before that has been the giveaway.

  24. Guytaur

    Yep. A lot of his actions to date, have raised red flags. I don’t think it is any secret in the intelligence community that he is compromised

  25. taylormade

    Which just shows how hypocritical people are – they use that kind of language in real life, but then get outraged when politicians do, then get upset when politicians watch their words and don’t talk like real people.

    Of course, Kennett, as Opposition Leader, used exactly the same language to describe Howard. Somehow it didn’t seem to affect his career much at all.

  26. joshgnosis: “The only polls I’m concerned about are the poles and wires” that energy companies are charging too much for, Turnbull says.
    joshgnosis: Mitchell: Are you comfortable working with a socialist prime minister in New Zealand?
    Turnbull says he’ll work constructively with Ardern
    joshgnosis: Turnbull says no apology is necessary from Julie Bishop.

  27. tomarild82: Part of the elite club that was blocked by Julie Bishop (who knows what i said), and now she doesn’t have a twitter account anymore!?

  28. I think that text helps not hinders Hennessy. People forgive strong language on an issue of passion showing passion. Genuine is always a plus. Unless of course you are a neo liberal attacking the poor to give money to the rich.

  29. TheShovel: Barnaby Joyce has congratulated Jacinda Ardern, saying he wants to work very closely with her government. Hopefully as a cabinet minister.

  30. This gives an idea how weak Turnbull is. We all know how weak May is.

    Electricity and gas companies have been bluntly warned that “change is coming” by the head of the UK’s energy regulator, who indicated that Theresa May’s proposed price cap was just one of the reforms planned to help consumers with their bills.

    Energy suppliers were put on notice that they face a range of radical reforms, including a potential rule change that would automatically switch customers to better deals without them taking action.

    “Change is coming whether the industry likes it or not,” Dermot Nolan, the chief executive of Ofgem, told energy firms in an impassioned speech, the tone of which sometimes bordered on anger.

  31. In the Murdoch phrase book, “Socialist leaning” refers to anyone holding a position that people other than wealthy white heterosexual males deserve a fair go.

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