BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. Thank goodness. I wondered when she’d get it right, or whether she mispronounced it deliberately. (Anyone remember Jeff Kennett pretending to not know how to pronounce “Brumby” when he became Labor leader?)

  2. Such a dumb headline in the Australian. Voters who wanted National have voted National. Those who wanted Labour voted Labour. Those who wanted Winston Peters to decide who to anoint according to whatever his own personal agenda and fancy dictated voted for his mob.

  3. Julie Bishop will be consoled that even though Arden is PM. It is.only of NZ and therefore being FM of Australia is besting her. Cos we know how Bishop feels about any woman holding a higher station than her!

  4. WRT that headline in the Oz the Nationals were losers too. They couldn’t form a government in their own right. Bloody silly headline.

  5. Fascinating to read & watch all the outraged commentary in the US towards the Russians for meddling in the election of Donald Trump; because of course, the US never meddles in elections in other countries and are thus totally shocked that someone should meddle in theirs.

  6. Does Keating have a point that politicians shouldn’t be talking about assisted dying until politicians have properly funded palliative care.

  7. No, because not everybody wants palliative care and nobody should have palliative care foisted on them against their will.

    This issue is about empowering individuals to take control of their own circumstances and make informed decisions about what actions they want to take. Not about making sure everyone has access to just one option while keeping another option completely shut down.

  8. No ? I mean you’re not doing people any favours by sentencing them to continued suffering for societies inability to fund palliative care (and that’s not even considering those for whom even the best palliative care is merely mitigating unbearable pain).

    Besides which what’s proper funding ? Its pretty likely you could poor the entire GDP of Australia into palliative care and minor improvements for specific cases would still be possible at vast cost/benefit ratios.

  9. Booleanbach

    The word meddling is so innocuous. Not what happened. If it were mere meddling, it would not be a big deal. In any case the USA have been shit meddlers, cos Putin has been in power for years

  10. @ Anton – Keating’s argument is exactly as good as saying

    “Governments should not pay unemployment support payments until they have properly supported education”

  11. Victoria

    The US have been appalling at meddling for years. Vietnam Iraq etc. By those standards the Russians showed how it is done.

  12. Why would you consign someone to a rest of their life of palliative care when you can give them the choice to determine when they exit stage left? I don’t see it as one or the other.

  13. [ The problem with Windschuttle’s work is that, at times, you get the impression that he is a former Marxist – turned political conservative – who is waging a personal war on the very left-wing interpretation of Australian history that he once both embraced and proclaimed. ]

    I was surprised that the church had not engaged Windschuttle to write the “real” story on child abuse, but then I see that Donnell is doing a more than adequate job.

  14. anton:

    I do agree palliative care should be properly resourced. But legal assisted dying just puts another option on the table.

  15. ccroucher9: Julie Bishop says Jacinda Ardern can look at the bottom of media releases to find her number.
    Hope reception is ready. pic.twitter.com/SfMDeKi1zr

  16. bishop not knowing how to pronounce Ardern’s name is no big deal for her.

    she did not know how to contact trump when he was elected and had to call on a retired golfer for details on how to contact him, and holds up a letter sent by north korea via Indonesia as an example of how on top of foreign policy she is.

    ceremonial post no more no less like dolly in london and eleventy in washington

  17. [Julie Bishop says Jacinda Ardern can look at the bottom of media releases to find her number.]

    usually you include the country code when you provide your details to international contacts.

    or is bishop not aware that NZ has its own unique code different from Australia and you cannot just direct dial.

  18. Bill Maher
    1 hr ·
    Sex abuse, Russian meddling, cyber-bullying – the list of things our president can’t speak about because HE DOES THEM just keeps growing…

  19. Fess

    On a different track, I recently observed in a facility, an elderly woman who was still very frail but physically able, and well and truly mentally gone, go on a sustained freak out. It can be best described as a scene from the exorcist. The spitting cursing etc. I understood then why it was believed once that people were possessed by the devil. It was so damn disturbing.
    It took hours for the medicos to finally settle her down.
    Of course this very elderly frail woman would not be in any position to make a rationale decision to have an assisted death, although frankly her current existence sure ain’t living a dignified life.

  20. Anton

    Why assisted dying laws are required.
    For those patients who ask to be knocked off, the medicos can’t oblige them under law. That is precisely the point.

  21. My grandmother was. There was nothing that could really be done except for very heavy duty painkillers (synthetic morphine basically). She died over the course of 3 years and was effectively bedridden for a bit over the last year.

    She actually asked the surgeon who was willing to risk operating on someone of her age and physical condition to kill her during it and they refused (which I don’t blame them for, they were willing to risk a surgery with a high chance of failure because it could have potentially helped, given that belief it’s not ethical to assist dying).

    A slow , painful decay into inevitable death is not something I’d wish on anyone. The finest care is just extending the suffering for no reason other than moral posturing.

    And thats dealing with someone who was Independently wealthy and could afford the best care and specialists.

  22. Australian Connection. Oops!

    Jian Yang, the MP at the centre of a debate about the extent of China’s influence in New Zealand, did not disclose his links to military intelligence when applying for residency in 1998.

    Documents released under the Official Information Act (OIA) also show less than a year after leaving China in 1994 he was working at the Australian Parliament on the Senate’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11934852

  23. [Though, I thought that in Palliative care they pretty much knock you off pretty fast. Wrong?]

    depends on the doctor, the hospital, their beliefs, and their relationship with the patient and the family.

    get a doctor who has known the patient and family for a long time, who is not constrained by religous beliefs and setting is a private setting, hospital or home, and the time may be chosen.

    get a doctor in a public hospital, constrained by beliefs, new to family and patient, and it is a long drawn out process painful for all that you would not allow an animal to go through.

  24. vic:

    That’s a terrible scenario. Of course any such laws enabling voluntary euthanasia would need to ensure a person making such a decision was certified of sound mind.

    My grandfather would’ve been a classic case of someone who could’ve benefited from such laws.

  25. Elaugaufein

    I hear you.
    An aint of mine died a few years ago,after succumbing to Parkinson s disease.
    When she was still able to communicate, she begged to be put out of her misery.
    She kept asking to allow her to go to sleep and not wake up.
    To watch her deteriorate to a shell of what could best be described as a wheelchair bound zombie stating out into space was horrendous for her and everyone around her. She was such a vibrant funny person, and she was never afforded herveush to die before reaching that stage. There is nothing honourable or dignified about it.

  26. Nasty!

    Gladys Berejiklian‏Verified account @GladysB 16h16 hours ago
    Hey Kiwis, if you’re looking to live in a place that has great infrastructure, a growing economy and jobs – come over to NSW #nzpol

    And KK thinks so too.

    Kristina Keneally ‏Verified account @KKeneally 21m21 minutes ago
    I, for one, acknowledge & congratulate @jacindaardern – NZ’s 3rd female PM – and wish her government & all New Zealanders well.

  27. Of course the current approach is that Drs give an “accidental” overdose of morphine. i have no problem with this provided it is between the patient and the Dr. NO family involved whatsoever. a completely arms length decision.

  28. Fess

    This legislation will assist those who know what is in store and to allow them the option of asking to assist their passing before it gets to that stage. Simple as that

  29. [I recently observed in a facility, an elderly woman who was still very frail but physically able, and well and truly mentally gone, go on a sustained freak out. It can be best described as a scene from the exorcist. The spitting cursing etc. I understood then why it was believed once that people were possessed by the devil. It was so damn disturbing.
    It took hours for the medicos to finally settle her down.
    Of course this very elderly frail woman would not be in any position to make a rationale decision to have an assisted death, although frankly her current existence sure ain’t living a dignified life.]

    Vic, she may not like that all the time. May be fine through the day and different at night.
    sometimes referred to as “sundowners” as they change completely when night comes.

    many aware of it, having seen it, especially in aged care homes where they see their friends slowly deteriorate to the point where they don’t recognize their family and friends and their family and friends no longer recognise the person they have known.

    it is a great fear of theirs that they will and up like that, with only short moments of lucidity and a unstoppable worsening in their condition. but assisted dying does not address this, maybe in the future.

  30. I am all for the Assisted dying legislation. Safeguards in place to prevent the Logan’s run scenario and all is well.

    As I posted earlier its like organ donation, We don’t let the spectre of organ harvesting prevent us having sensible organ donation laws

  31. I understand if our laws outlawing the importation of heroin were changed, that drug could greatly assist people in intolerable pain.

    More victims of the ‘war’ on drugs.

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