BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  2. Possibly (probably?) GG, or given their current form there could be a WA type swing on.

    Such a swing may not last until the next election.

  3. Steelydan @ #1527 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 5:43 pm

    Which is the most he should get, considering the minimal amount of harm caused (if any; I question whether a “very, very slightly swollen lip” is actually a swollen lip at all).

    Bullshit missing a person in a violent act should mean little, a few centimeters has meant death to quite a few Australians, and not just young men on the piss but Doctors doing there duty.

    Say the bloke missed when he tried to head butt Julia Gillard? Hypocrite

    I’m with you on this one!

    The dude has dined out on the fact he wanted to bash Abbott. So his intent is pretty clear. I can accept that the damage to Abbott is minimal. But, this could have had far more injurious consequences and the Courts and law have to up hold that criminal intent is a serious matter.

  4. Well given QLD seems to be going to the polls soon (last before fixed terms and with compulsory preferences) we can at least get a regional snapshot.

  5. John Reidy

    Yes you’re right. That was Mal’s opportunity to reverse Abbott’s bad decisions, and he would definitely have received praise for NBN reversal. But I think his pride was already tied up in Fraudband and he didn’t really want (or wasn’t able) to change much policy because of the monkeypods.

  6. A R

    What a silly argument, a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.
    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

  8. It doesn’t take a genius to note that the media isn’t particularly loved at the moment. Whether justified or not, the general consensus is that journalists are elite, out-of-touch and utterly untethered from the material concerns of regular people. Thanks to Trump and his regional wannabes, everyone has a working vocabulary for pointing out media deceptions and nepotism.

    With that in mind: why do political journalists in this country make it so easy for them?

    http://www.jrhennessy.com/blog/2017/10/23/strange-bedfellows

  9. This country got done over by News Ltds jihad against action on climate change and the NBN. They got the coalition into power and killed off action on climate and fibre to the premise. Malcolm can’t wind back on either without admiting he was wrong and News Ltd was wrong.

  11. Abbott is an agro macho big swinging dick. Being an MP with security has probably saved him from multiple head buttings.

  13. Steelydan @ #1550 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.

    Well, a person can walk up to someone and deliver a gentle/poorly-executed non-damaging “headbutt” and receive “a fine, good behavior bond and […] some community service” for their efforts. Or whatever the penalty for assault is.

    That seems proportional enough to me. I don’t think a decade of jail time for everyone who commits a minor act of violence that might have been much, much worse if all of the stars had aligned just right is a realistic or even tractable solution.

    But no, none of that says delivering a proper headbutt and actually injuring someone is to be punished the same amount.

    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

    Seriously what? I think you’re seriously trolling with that line of argument. Does that count?

    For the record, I don’t have a “side”. I have my principles, and support whomever aligns with them best. That means I’ll preference Labor ahead of the Coalition, but by no means will you see me putting Labor first or excusing their bad decisions (such as with Adani, or their support for the government’s facial-recognition privacy invasion, and so on).

  14. adrian @ #1519 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 5:26 pm

    Steelydan @ #1515 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 5:20 pm

    Forget for a second that Tony Abbott is man you despise, prosecutions using assaulting a government official as a charge means four fifths of FA. The bloke assuming he has not got a criminal history littered with violence will get a fine, good behavior bond and at the most some community service, such is our legal system today.

    What do you want him to get?

    A medal?

  18. A R @ #1557 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 6:38 pm

    Steelydan @ #1550 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.

    Well, a person can walk up to someone and deliver a gentle/poorly-executed non-damaging “headbutt” and receive “a fine, good behavior bond and […] some community service” for their efforts. Or whatever the penalty for assault is.

    That seems proportional enough to me. I don’t think a decade of jail time for everyone who commits a minor act of violence that might have been much, much worse if all of the stars had aligned just right is a realistic or even tractable solution.

    But no, none of that says delivering a proper headbutt and actually injuring someone is to be punished the same amount.

    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

    Seriously what? I think you’re seriously trolling with that line of argument. Does that count?

    For the record, I don’t have a “side”. I have my principles, and support whomever aligns with them best. That means I’ll preference Labor ahead of the Coalition, but by no means will you see me putting Labor first or excusing their bad decisions (such as with Adani, or their support for the government’s facial-recognition privacy invasion, and so on).

    I suppose all those women that put up with the love taps and murder from arseholes who think violence is a viable option for expressing male frustration would agree!

    This idiot deliberately went out to harm another person. That he failed to inflict serious damage to another person is down to his incompetence.

  20. That snippet of Rudd reminded me that Cousins also said on ABC Sydney that people were only using the nbn for watching videos and didn’t need fttp.

  21. michaelkoziol: Operation Sovereign Borders: 31 boats turned back, total 771 people, mostly recently in June, 6 people turned back to Sri Lanka #estimates

    So as of June boats still coming

  22. Still paywalled – is he trying to discredit 4C or whatever?

    Four Corners transcript released
    Communications Minister Mitch Fifield
    6:36PMJOE KELLY
    Communications Minister Mitch Fifield has pre-empted tonight’s episode of Four Corners on the problems facing the NBN.

  25. AR
    Well, a person can walk up to someone and deliver a gentle/poorly-executed non-damaging “headbutt” and receive “a fine, good behavior bond and […] some community service” for their efforts. Or whatever the penalty for assault is.

    What planet do you live on? Gentle, who used the word gentle other than you. He said I tried to nut the c%#) and missed.

    So Julia Gillard is walking down the street and someone who doesn’t like her walks up and tires to head butt her but executes this violence poorly and it is all ok because it did not pan out as they expected, yeah right that person does jail time. The thing is you know it and still argue the point.

  27. Steelydan @ #1550 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    A R

    What a silly argument, a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.
    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

    When the law is applied equally you might have a case.

    I am a ware of a case where an off-duty cop and 2 of his mates from a football team admitted to starting a brawl but were not even charged – they were prosecution witnesses!

  28. A week or two ago someone gave a link to an article saying that Westfield was tracking customers through secret cameras on the top of stand alone advertising displays in their shopping centres.

    Today I had a look in Westfield Woden (ACT) and sure enough, tiny lenses were visible near the top of two advertising displays.

    I’m hoping next time I visit, their cameras will recognise my face and give me a gift voucher for paying attention to their advertising!

  29. lizzie
    citizen

    It’s just his own interview, not the whole. Even so…

    Perhaps he’s making sure that his side of the argument gets at least as much air time as the NBN critics.

  30. I also might break my disdainfull boycott of 7.30 to watch the Ruddster shiv Malcolm’s lies.

    And one thing to remember (ping for any MSM reading this august blog), the NBN was all about National Productivity, not downloading movies or anything else citizens do.

    This is what the original business case said, and Rudd should reiterate tonight.

    So sad to see Turnbull’s #FraudBand foisted on us

  31. Steelydan @ #1568 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 5:58 pm

    So [any person of any political persuasion or none at all] is walking down the street and someone who doesn’t like [her or him] walks up and tires to head butt [her or him] but executes this violence poorly and it is all ok

    It’s not all okay. A crime has been committed, and the person who did it should be arrested, charged, and then sentenced proportionately for their actions (as in, what they did, not what they might have done). As is the case and/or expected outcome with Mr. Labe.

  32. sprocket_ @ #1573 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    I also might break my disdainfull boycott of 7.30 to watch the Ruddster shiv Malcolm’s lies.

    And one thing to remember (ping for any MSM reading this august blog), the NBN was all about National Productivity, not downloading movies or anything else citizens do.

    This is what the original business case said, and Rudd should reiterate tonight.

    So sad to see Turnbull’s #FraudBand foisted on us

    Is that the same Ruddster who is routinely disparaged on PB?

    Well fancy that.

  33. Gee the mayor of dubbo smashed the NBN on ABC TV news. Half the town is fibre and the other is crap, and the real estate agents keep getting asked if there is fibre to the premises!

  35. Aqualung

    That snippet of Rudd reminded me that Cousins also said on ABC Sydney that people were only using the nbn for watching videos

    They are improving. Early on we were told fttp would just mean people could download porn and pirate movies faster.

  36. bemused @ #1570 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Steelydan @ #1550 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    A R

    What a silly argument, a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.
    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

    When the law is applied equally you might have a case.

    I am a ware of a case where an off-duty cop and 2 of his mates from a football team admitted to starting a brawl but were not even charged – they were prosecution witnesses!

    Your backsliding and lack of principle has always been a feature of your contributions to PB.

  38. neighbour_s: We’re used to causing a fuss,but it’s rare to see the pollies in such a flap before #4corners abc.net.au/news/2017-10-2… pic.twitter.com/V5d4AO9qMD

  41. The big problem with Malcolm saying that the NBN was a mistake is that it will now be the focus of INTENSE interest and analysis. One of the dumbest moves ever from a very dumb man.

  43. Marvell_Law: @neighbour_s @4corners Problem solved! Look! Up in the sky! It’s ‘Copper Man’! pic.twitter.com/eYdxR4mPgw

  45. Bemused

    On Rudd, I have to disclose a severe conflict of interest having worked for both Rudd and Gillard, loyally as one does. With the passing of time, I choose to recall the good times only.

    So just watching Rudd on 7.30 just now, one is reminded of the strategic intellect of the man, and at the same time, the unecessary bagging of Swan. He certainly stated the NBN design objectives perfectly.

    And pointed to the Abbott/Murdoch cabal, faithfully implemented by Turnbull the wrecker who knew enough to be able to mandate the MTM dogs breakfast we now have.

  46. Reported here?
    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 2h2 hours ago
    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Wentworth Primary Votes: Turnbull LIB 45.0 (-17.3 since election) ALP 27.9 (+10.2) GRN 13.2 ON 8.8 Other 5.0 #auspol

  47. Greensborough Growler @ #1579 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:23 pm

    bemused @ #1570 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Steelydan @ #1550 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    A R

    What a silly argument, a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.
    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

    When the law is applied equally you might have a case.

    I am a ware of a case where an off-duty cop and 2 of his mates from a football team admitted to starting a brawl but were not even charged – they were prosecution witnesses!

    Your backsliding and lack of principle has always been a feature of your contributions to PB.

    If I could match your stupidity, I would have something to worry about.

  48. bemused @ #1590 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:58 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1579 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:23 pm

    bemused @ #1570 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Steelydan @ #1550 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    A R

    What a silly argument, a person can just walk up to someone and head butt them and its all cool, a slap on the wrist and that is it.
    How is using Julia Gillard as an example not relevant, what you don’t like using someone other than Abbott as an example. Bob Hawke, Keating Gillard choose anyone from your side and you would have been screaming blue murder and you know it. Seriously?

    When the law is applied equally you might have a case.

    I am a ware of a case where an off-duty cop and 2 of his mates from a football team admitted to starting a brawl but were not even charged – they were prosecution witnesses!

    Your backsliding and lack of principle has always been a feature of your contributions to PB.

    If I could match your stupidity, I would have something to worry about.

    Oh, hit me with your swizzle stick!

  49. Now I’m just a mug, but statements like this seem dangerous, especially coming from a PM leading a government 8 points behind in the polls for the past umpteen months (and not looking likely to improve anytime soon):

    Malcolm Turnbull has labelled the national broadband network a mistake and blamed Labor for leaving the Coalition a “calamitous train wreck” of a project while responding to concerns from the NBN Co chief executive that it may not pay its own way.

    Admitting the project is a “calamitous train wreck” – but blaming someone else for it when you not only designed it as Minister, but then took Prime Ministerial oversight of it afterwards – risks the public agreeing with you about the “calimitous train wreck” bit, but dis-agreeing with you about who’s exactly to blame.

    This has the capacity to be an very large exploding cigar, right in Malcolm Turnbull’s face. No longer is he spruiking the (admittedly laughable) line that the NBN is brilliantly successful. Au contraire, he’s now admitting it’s a failure. That’s a VERY BIG admission for someone who’s been specifically in charge of the project for over 4 years.

    Another inspirational political performance from our gifted, exciting leader.

    Not.

  50. sprocket_ @ #1588 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 7:54 pm

    Bemused

    On Rudd, I have to disclose a severe conflict of interest having worked for both Rudd and Gillard, loyally as one does. With the passing of time, I choose to recall the good times only.

    So just watching Rudd on 7.30 just now, one is reminded of the strategic intellect of the man, and at the same time, the unecessary bagging of Swan. He certainly stated the NBN design objectives perfectly.

    And pointed to the Abbott/Murdoch cabal, faithfully implemented by Turnbull the wrecker who knew enough to be able to mandate the MTM dogs breakfast we now have.

    You were a staffer for both Gillard and Rudd? Or did you just work for them as a campaigner as so many others did, including me?

    I agree on Swan. Just better not said no matter what the reality may or may not be.

    I too prefer to recall the good times and let the others fade. Not a lot of good in the Gillard era and my hears sank at the time of the ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’, never to really rise very much again.

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