BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. rhwombat

    dave @3:13. Inevitable. Down time of >20 min after a VF/asystolic arrest in non-freezing conditions doesn’t leave much brainstem function. “When” death occurs isn’t cut and dried either, even when on a cardiac monitor.

    My brother, a forensic pathologist, spent 3 years as a Medical Examiner in New Mexico (he also did most of the Port Arthur PMs – which affected him greatly) and ran in the Medical Examiner’s Triathlon team. They had T shirts which read “You’re not dead until we say so”.

    *************************************************

    List of Brain Dead Patients Who’ve Recovered

    Brain dead means not dead. Don’t trust that diagnosis: A surgeon would have cut out the eyes of “brain dead” 14-year-old Taylor Hale of Iowa if she hadn’t awakened in time. A man from Mississippi was being shipped to the morgue when he began kicking his way out of his body bag

    MORE : https://kgov.com/brain-dead-patients-who-have-recovered

  2. I just realised where the ME survey is going to backfire on Turnbull in another classic Wile E Coyote moment for him.

    The plan was so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel.

    Hold the ME survey, yes wins in a landslide, put forward a bill that no sane person can support (enshrines the right of religious figures, public servants and businesses to refuse to serve gays), then the media destroys Labor when they vote against it, claiming they are going against the government mandate from the survey. Then Christmas happens and people forget, then the gays mention it again, and Turnbull says there is a budget emergency and they can’t afford another $120 million on a plebiscite about what form the ME bill should take.

    But the results are being published on 15/11/2017.

    The senate, but not the HoR are sitting on 15-16/11. So Labor can suspend normal business, pass a rational bill with no ‘protections’, and then the Liberals will be the ones holding up progress and risk a media backlash if any independent media has been established in Australia in the next few weeks.

    Who chose the date for publication? Did Turnbull screw up, or is it a big middle finger from the ABS?

  3. phoenixRED:
    “List of Brain Dead Patients Who’ve Recovered
    Brain dead means not dead. Don’t trust that diagnosis: A surgeon would have cut out the eyes of “brain dead” 14-year-old Taylor Hale of Iowa if she hadn’t awakened in time. A man from Mississippi was being shipped to the morgue when he began kicking his way out of his body bag”

    That site has a ‘Theology Thursday’ link along the top of the page. Maybe this was the second coming?

  4. Aqualung

    Fargo61 I’m on fttp and I retained my old landline number when we switched. I assumed it was voip.

    ********************************

    Went from ADSL to Fixed Wireless – went to VOIP and retained old phone number – free unlimited time calls within Australia …… ( 35c for 1300 numbers )

  5. “The plan was so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel.”

    Haven’t heard that one before. Sounds like something Balderick might say.

  6. Mr Newbie
    phoenixRED:

    That site has a ‘Theology Thursday’ link along the top of the page. Maybe this was the second coming?

    *********************************************

    Why waking up in a morgue isn’t quite as unusual as you’d think

    So people can be mistaken for dead, but it is very rare indeed – and for the most part our sophisticated medical tests and equipment ensure it doesn’t happen. And, as illustrated by the above cases, those unlucky people tend to wake up in mortuaries anyway, and certainly don’t reach the stage where they would be buried alive. But then again, we wouldn’t know about those unfortunate people, would we?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/14/waking-morgue-death-janina-kolkiewicz

  12. So by the middle of last week about 57.5% of survey forms had been returned. Of these 15% – on the polling – had recorded Noes. So as at the end the mail out period about 1/10 Australians had recorded a No to amending the Marriage Act. On this basis, the Noes will struggle to reach even 20% of the electorate.

  13. Labor won’t pass a bill without at least permitting religious ministers to not wed gay same sex couples if it’s against their denominational beliefs. They’ve already stated as much. Though I doubt they are inclined to put in much more protection than that.

  14. Elaugaufein @ #11831 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 3:47 pm

    Labor won’t pass a bill without at least permitting religious ministers to not wed gay same sex couples if it’s against their denominational beliefs. They’ve already stated as much. Though I doubt they are inclined to put in much more protection than that.

    I think that protection already exists.

  17. Catholic Priests are not compelled to officiate at the wedding of a divorced person, but cake makers aren’t allowed to discriminate against divorced people.

  18. Facebook and Google promoted false news stories claiming that the shooter who killed more than 50 people in Las Vegas was a Democrat who opposed Donald Trump. The misidentification spread rapidly from dark corners of the internet to mainstream platforms just hours after hundreds were injured at a festival near the Mandalay Bay casino, the latest example of fake news polluting social media amid a breaking news story.

    The flow of misinformation on Monday illustrated a particularly grim trend that has increasingly dominated viral online propaganda during US mass shootings – hyper-partisan trolls battling to blame the tragedy on opposing political ideologies.

    …On 4chan, the anonymous message board and a favorite platform of the “alt-right”, some noted that Danley was a registered Democrat. Soon after, Gateway Pundit, a conspiracy-laden blog that earned White House credentials under Trump, published an evidence-free story headlined, “Las Vegas Shooter Reportedly a Democrat Who Liked Rachel Maddow, MoveOn.org and Associated with Anti-Trump Army”.

    The piece was based on a review of Facebook “likes”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/02/las-vegas-shooting-facebook-google-fake-news-shooter

  20. [Elaugaufein
    Labor won’t pass a bill without at least permitting religious ministers to not wed gay same sex couples if it’s against their denominational beliefs. They’ve already stated as much. Though I doubt they are inclined to put in much more protection than that.    ]

    I think about the only concession the Smith bill was proposing was to allow existing civil celebrants to opt out of performing SSM.

    Apart from that it uses the the current religious powers and all new civil celebrants would have no choice.

    I think that’s probably got the balance about right.

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #1769 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 4:26 pm

    I think that’s probably got the balance about right.

    I doubt that’s going to work. Why should new celebrants be treated differently to existing celebrants? How would you know when you apply to one? And if they refused you, how would you know whether this was a legal refusal or not?

  23. dave @ #1767 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 3:25 pm

    …On 4chan, the anonymous message board and a favorite platform of the “alt-right”, some noted that Danley was a registered Democrat.

    I’m still baffled regarding how 4chan became the main hangout for right-wing extremists. If I recall correctly, it started out as a place for people to post stupid image meme things. The divide from that towards driving political misinformation and oppression seems like it should be impassably vast. And also posting stupid image meme things seems like more of a liberal activity than a conservative one. But obviously not.

    Also, in case it’s not clear from the snipped text:

    1. The shooter was a man named Stephen Paddock, not anyone called Danley.
    2. Paddock was not registered Democrat or Republican, in Nevada, Florida, or anywhere else.

    Claims to the contrary are 100% fake news.

  24. No-one is proposing a bill forcing people to marry gay people.

    Even if a bill was proposed without any explicit protections, a Priest can always choose to not renew, or to cancel their marriage licence, if they cannot or will not deliver their services in a non discriminatory way.

    This is identical to protections that exist for similar situations.

    Can’t teach gay students? You can always quit your job as a teacher before they fire you.

    Can’t drive a bus with blacks at the front? You can always quit your job as a bus driver before they fire you.

    Can’t marry gay people? You can always quit your position as a celebrant before they fire you.

  26. p1

    I doubt that’s going to work. Why should new celebrants be treated differently to existing celebrants? How would you know when you apply to one? And if they refused you, how would you know whether this was a legal refusal or not?

    Celebrants and date of appointment … The new ones I believe will have some variation in title

    https://marriage.ag.gov.au/marriagecelebrants/civil

  28. A R,
    4chan had a policy of censoring nothing! So, of course, the AltRight found a comfortable home there.
    It then cross-pollinated with the meme generators.

  30. If anyone (other than myself) was experiencing crazy comment numbers in C+, that should be fixed as of v0.7.12. Likely you’re only affected if not living in NSW. And presumably anyone not living in NSW or QLD would have been experiencing the issue, like, forever.

  31. briefly @ #1761 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 4:16 pm

    So by the middle of last week about 57.5% of survey forms had been returned. Of these 15% – on the polling – had recorded Noes. So as at the end the mail out period about 1/10 Australians had recorded a No to amending the Marriage Act. On this basis, the Noes will struggle to reach even 20% of the electorate.

    Yes, based on the polling data the “no” camp is deep trouble. I wonder if the demographic advantage the no camp was expected to have (i.e. older people being more conservative and more likely to respond). Has been canceled out by gender, education (and possibly income) demographic effects which favor the “yes” camp.

  32. Good afternoon all,

    Even if the survey returned a 100% yes vote the no cohort within the coalition will push as hard as they can to make the passing of SSM legislation a very drawn out process. John Howard will not roll over nor will Abbott, Andrews, Abetz and co. Of course they will ” respect” the result but only as far as supporting legislation but only legislation that had protection for a whole swath of made up and pretend rights.

    Turnbull has only agreed to facilitate the passage of a private members bill and that means not necessarily any that are now before Parliament. All that it does mean is he will allow a bill to be presented and then his comitement is met. What is contained in that legislation is of no real concern to Turnbull. He has delivered a ” plebiscite” and his work is then done.

    Turnbull will not control the issue and the content of the final legislation will be the next battleground within the coalition. I would be surprised if Turnbull will fight its content at all.

    Cheers.

  33. rhwombat @ #1743 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 3:29 pm

    dave @3:13. Inevitable. Down time of >20 min after a VF/asystolic arrest in non-freezing conditions doesn’t leave much brainstem function. “When” death occurs isn’t cut and dried either, even when on a cardiac monitor.

    A colleague of mine, when an RMO on overnight in a major hospital in the early 80’s, was asked to certify someone ‘s expected death from an advanced gastric malignacy. He diligently read the notes, did the usual cursory exam, rang the family and did the Death Certificate. Problem was, the bloke didn’t stop breathing, very slowly, for another 12 hours. The Funeral blokes were very pissed. and Chris got the Lazarus award at that year’s mess dinner. He’s now a Professor of Medicine.

    He did a death certificate on a breathing body?

    The first death certificate I did was on a man who blew his head off in Roseville Park. It made fixed dilated pupils a bit redundant.

    (Plus there’s dead on the machine while the rellies are notified and gather etc and then really dead with the machine off.)

  34. The GOP insists that the Vegas shooter’s gun arsenal is “a right,” but medical treatment for his 500+ survivors is merely “a privilege.”
    Pretty well sums up that despicable mob!

  35. A R @ #12455 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 4:32 pm

    If anyone (other than myself) was experiencing crazy comment numbers in C+, that should be fixed as of v0.7.12. Likely you’re only affected if not living in NSW. And presumably anyone not living in NSW or QLD would have been experiencing the issue, like, forever.

    How do I upgrade to the latest version?

  36. Work To Rule @ #1780 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    briefly @ #1761 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 4:16 pm

    So by the middle of last week about 57.5% of survey forms had been returned. Of these 15% – on the polling – had recorded Noes. So as at the end the mail out period about 1/10 Australians had recorded a No to amending the Marriage Act. On this basis, the Noes will struggle to reach even 20% of the electorate.

    Yes, based on the polling data the “no” camp is deep trouble. I wonder if the demographic advantage the no camp was expected to have (i.e. older people being more conservative and more likely to respond). Has been canceled out by gender, education (and possibly income) demographic effects which favor the “yes” camp.

    So, you take the published results of a hokey poll and then extrapolate the answer breakdowns to assert there is a positive for the “yes” side.

    Hmm!

  37. [CTar1
    p1

    I doubt that’s going to work. Why should new celebrants be treated differently to existing celebrants? How would you know when you apply to one? And if they refused you, how would you know whether this was a legal refusal or not?

    Celebrants and date of appointment … The new ones I believe will have some variation in title

    https://marriage.ag.gov.au/marriagecelebrants/civil]

    You could affix the initials “n.b.” to the new ones title and also those existing ones that don’t discriminate.

    Marriage Celebrant n.b.

  40. [BK
    The GOP insists that the Vegas shooter’s gun arsenal is “a right,” but medical treatment for his 500+ survivors is merely “a privilege.”
    Pretty well sums up that despicable mob!    ]

    Definitely f$#%ed up logic.

    I wonder how many victims are potential bankrupts as a result?

  43. Still the same old, same old…………58? murdered in the US………endless pages/vision/replays…..and a built-in connection to Oz…….could the media ask for more?
    Wait on…….this bloke seems to have a kind of English name…………and to the face of it might just be a Good Ol’ Boy with all that firepower. Must be a Muslim/Terrorist connection somewhere ask the MSM? Failing that, the guy was a Democrat……….or was he? No matter, worth a spin.
    Meanwhile, on a regular basis, dozens blown up in Iraq/Syria and such places……..barely rating a mention…………When the Anglo/Euro sphere suffers it is really big news………………….

  45. PBers thought Shorten was being subtle/clever and only pretending to back Adani. Are they backtracking or not? Have they watched ABC report?

    Earlier this month, Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten backed the project.

    “I support the Adani coal mine so long as it stacks up. I hope it stacks up,” Mr Shorten said.

    But Labor’s energy and environment spokesman Mark Butler today warned the development could hurt other coalmining areas.

    “It will simply displace existing coal operations elsewhere in Australia,” Mr Butler said.

    “There will be jobs lost elsewhere in Queensland or there will be jobs lost in the Hunter Valley.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-30/federal-labor-backtracks-on-support-of-adani-coal-mine/8483932

  46. A R @ #1780 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 5:02 pm

    If anyone (other than myself) was experiencing crazy comment numbers in C+, that should be fixed as of v0.7.12. Likely you’re only affected if not living in NSW. And presumably anyone not living in NSW or QLD would have been experiencing the issue, like, forever.

    Thanks, A R!

    Have you resolved the problems with the latest version of Firefox?

  48. lizzie @ #1795 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 5:30 pm

    PBers thought Shorten was being subtle/clever and only pretending to back Adani. Are they backtracking or not? Have they watched ABC report?

    I watched the ABC report. The Queensland government support for Adani is indeed reprehensible in the light of just how environmentally irresponsible and corrupt Adani appears to be – but I don’t think this extends to Shorten.

    “I support the Adani coal mine so long as it stacks up. I hope it stacks up,” Mr Shorten said.

    I think on the environmental impacts alone, the project does not “stack up”. Shorten was wise to qualify his support.

  49. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 4h4 hours ago

    Happy to spend $65 billion on business tax cuts. OK with $50 bn submarine subsidy. $4bn+mining subsidy. $6.5bn Health ins.
    Inept hypocrites.

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