BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. I have always expected the “yes” vote will be higher in OZ than it was in Ireland (64% from memory).

    The interest for me has always been how the nutters play the result. So far the “survey” has been an enrolment drive for the young, who don’t tend to vote L-NP, and helped knock a bit more gloss off Howard.
    EDIT: just checked Ireland. It was 62-38 with a 60% turnout.

  2. Question
    Thanks KB,

    I would expect the turnout to be quite high because we don’t have an optional voting culture in OZ. Whether it be elections where we queue to vote or “surveys” (Census) that we are compelled to answer. We like to moan as we participate.

    I also have the feeling that Yes-Supporters really want to express their views. They don’t want the chance to slip by. So there is a Yes-bandwagon and it is actually rolling strongly. It feels really good to join with others and do something very simple that’s heartening, generous, inclusive and positive…so unlike politics as usual.

    Meanwhile, only the very driven Noes are motivated to send in returns. The No campaign is basically nasty, dirty, confusing, weird-seeming and desperate. Not a lot of people want to identify with those characteristics. It is also co-led by the contemptible Abbott and the repulsive Abetz. Almost no-one wants to give Abbott any support of any kind on any subject, ever!!! He is a vote repelling figure the days. In all…a strange, negative, whinging, mean, sleazy and ill-led effort from the Noes.

  3. briefly,

    I personally agree with you, but I also think the whole process is a farce, and in a different culture I might be more persuaded by P1’s dissenting attitude.

  4. If it weren’t important to deliver a resounding ‘Yes’ vote to ensure this sort of thing is never tried again, then I’d agree that abstention/boycotting is the next best option. The ethics of putting equality under the law up for a popular vote are dubious at best.

  5. A R
    If it weren’t important to deliver a resounding ‘Yes’ vote to ensure this sort of thing is never tried again, then I’d agree that abstention/boycotting is the next best option. The ethics of putting equality under the law up for a popular vote are dubious at best.

    The upside is the LGBTIQ community will know that Australia overwhelmingly is with them. That will be a great moment in the history of this country. It will rank alongside 1967. You never know, it may well encourage us to try for even more gains….for practical recognition of First Peoples in the Constitution, for a Treaty, for a Republic….

  6. The plebi-thing was always going to be a shitty process. What makes it worse is we already know that a majority of Australians support Marriage Equality, so when the survey tells us exactly that we have learnt nothing for our 122 m. Turnbulls biggest loss will be an overwhelming win. Abbott’s will be finding out what the silent majority really think.

  7. briefly

    He will always be remembered for asking of a defunct email account that immortal question “Am I still British?”

    The joke that he thought “Mailer Daemon” was a senior British government official may survive with it.

  8. A temporary effect, I think.

    The press, branded the ‘enemy’ by Trump, increasingly trusted by the public: Reuters/Ipsos poll

    The poll of more than 14,300 people found that the percentage of adults who said they had a “great deal” or “some” confidence in the press rose to 48 percent in September from 39 percent last November. Earlier this year, Trump branded the entire industry as the “enemy of the American people.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-effect-media-poll/the-press-branded-the-enemy-by-trump-increasingly-trusted-by-the-public-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1C813L

  9. The delivery problems a lot worse than Musk anticipated.

    Worries about whether Tesla Inc would meet its promises on production of its Model 3 mass-market sedan in the months ahead sent the electric car maker’s shares more than 2 percent lower on Tuesday as those in rivals climbed.

    The company, which warned when it launched the sedan in July that it was entering “manufacturing hell”, has so far delivered just 220 Model 3 cars and produced 260 during the quarter.

    It had targeted 1,500 sedans in the quarter and to take production to 5,000 a week by the end of the year.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-production-shares/teslas-model-3-bottlenecks-prompt-questions-on-targets-idUSKCN1C81AF

  10. CTar,

    The funny thing about Trump is that while his support levels have been strangely hard to crack (stupid is a constant I guess), he has failed to get any political advantage from a series of easy events.

    He is a lame duck within his first year. A shabby 35% rusted-on is not enough in a 2 party system with bugger all alternatives.

  11. Question

    Yep, he seems to have a hard core of supporters that will stay with him regardless of what he does.

    There’s a very blurred version of standard Democrat / Republican divide happening, but it is polarised specifically on ‘support Trump’ or ‘don’t support Trump’.

  12. Essential

    Very predictably 54-46. (as the bullshit sample from 2 weeks ago washes out)

    And this sample has the yes vote at 61-32% (which actually means 65.5-34.5)

    The Guardian pretends this is “up” from 58% last week (it hasn’t really changed).

    If the yes vote is less than 65% we can then doubt the ALP is 54% TPP. (the sample with the low ALP vote also had the low ‘yes’ vote – it was a dud sample)

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Waleed Aly has given a scathing assessment of US President Donald Trump’s response to the Las Vegas shooting massacre, calling the United States “a nation in denial”. “We’re all still reeling right now … But I think what’s shocked me most is how familiar this all feels,” he said. You have to agree with him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/the-projects-waleed-aly-decries-how-las-vegas-mass-shooting-has-become-incredibly-ordinary-20171003-gytq6y.html
    How the killer got has arsenal and 10000 rounds into his hotel room.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/how-las-vegas-killer-brought-22-guns-and-10000-bullets-into-a-hotel-20171002-gyt3d5.html
    Why Trump will do nothing about the parlous situation. The country’s f****d, that’s why!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/after-las-vegas-the-politics-of-gun-control-and-why-trump-wont-act-20171003-gytg4l.html
    The SH editor agrees. They will not learn.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/sadly-us-will-not-learn-from-latest-carnage-20171003-gytirg.html
    Mark Kenny makes some excellent points about American society and its polity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/americas-freedom-fundamentalism-impervious-to-death-20171003-gyt8j0.html
    The man charged with selling Australia’s tough gun laws to regional Australia, former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer, says US President Donald Trump needs to “get real” about the country’s gun problem. “The White House will produce slick statements saying now is not the time to enter any conversation on gun control,” he said.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-must-be-doing-something-right-and-the-us-something-massively-wrong-tim-fischer-20171003-gyt8rm.html
    The Washington Post says that those with the power to stop the killing will do nothing because they have no interest in doing so.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/those-with-the-power-to-stop-the-killing-have-no-interest-in-doing-so-20171002-gyt4q2.html
    Mourn the Las Vegas shooting, we’re told. But don’t ask why it happened writes Richard Wolffe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/03/mourn-las-vegas-shooting-gun-control
    Some thoughts from a conflicted Las Vegas gun owner.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/as-a-longtime-gun-owner-i-wonder-what-to-say-about-the-carnage-of-las-vegas-20171002-gyt5r6.html

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Bruce Guthrie writes that US gun lunacy is going from bad to worse.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/10/03/las-vegas-shooting-america-gun-lunacy/
    Graham Richardson not understand America or Americans. Whether it is a high school in Colorado, a primary school in Connecticut, or a music festival in Las Vegas, massacres with a gun just keep happening. He says that the greatest and most powerful nation in the world is utterly powerless to protect its citizens from themselves. Google
    /opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/not-even-the-las-vegas-shooting-can-get-the-us-talking-gun-reform/news-story/48f7a6f92f6a8c2e6ba2de0e23facbd7
    If you think the latest horrendous mass shooting in the United States will cause a shocked nation to stop and take stock, then you know very little about the history of American gun culture, or politics. Chris Graham reports.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/10/03/58-cold-hard-facts-from-the-nation-that-just-brought-you-another-58-cold-dead-hands/
    Are our own gun laws in a bit of trouble?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/10/03/australian-gun-laws-las-vegas/
    A Canberra public servant and “yes” advocate is taking legal action against the official “no” campaign vehicle, the Coalition for Marriage, alleging it defamed her by depicting her as an “extremist”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/yes-advocate-accuses-coalition-for-marriage-of-defamation-over-extremist-label-20171002-gysihf.html
    The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners has abandoned its neutral position on same-sex marriage in support of the ‘yes’ vote after suffering heavy criticism from its members and the wider community.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/royal-australian-college-of-gps-endorses-marriage-equality-after-backlash-over-neutral-stance-20171002-gyt4ab.html
    Religious organisations have freedom under Australian law to practice their own doctrines and marriage rituals for weddings held in their buildings and by their celebrants. Nothing will change in this respect if SSM is legalised.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-samesex-marriage-is-legalised-churches-can-still-say-no-20171002-gysujo.html
    Labor MP Chris Hayes has spoken out to defend those who fear same-sex marriage could curb ¬religious freedoms, arguing that the issue of protection must be ¬addressed to ensure “laws do not violate one’s genuinely held ¬beliefs and conscience”. Here comes the rearguard action. Google.
    /news/nation/samesex-marriage-vote-chris-hayes-seeks-safeguards-for-religious-freedoms/news-story/6924d11e57e4d38bb28b1adb3720bab8

  15. Section 3 . . .

    Public support for same-sex marriage is on the rise in the latest Guardian Essential poll, and 47% of the sample say they have already voted in the postal survey. The weekly survey of 1,841 voters finds headline support for the legalisation of same sex marriage at 61%, compared with 58% a week ago, and opposition on 32%. Among people who have already voted, a clear majority have cast a yes vote – 64% say they’ve returned a yes ballot and 30% a no ballot. Oh, and Labor is back to a 54/46 lead.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/04/support-for-marriage-equality-rises-in-guardian-essential-poll
    The NSW Supreme Court has thrown out a defamation case launched against Opposition Leader Luke Foley over his claims that former Auburn mayor Ronney Oueik represented “self-interest, not community interest”. Good!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/court-throws-out-former-mayors-defamation-case-against-opposition-leader-luke-foley-20171003-gyt9hw.html
    Superannuation funds owned by the big banks and AMP continue to dominate the ranks of the fat cats with high fees and poor performance. So why is the government going after the better performing industry funds?
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/fewer-poor-performing-super-funds–but-banks-still-worst-offenders-20171003-gyt73e.html
    The New Matilda is fighting fire with fire in its legal stoush with Channel Seven.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/10/03/new-matilda-threatens-to-sue-channel-7-lawyers-for-unpaid/
    Population growth patterns mean votes cast in our biggest states are becoming less potent at the federal level compared to votes cast in smaller states. Analysis by economist Terry Rawnsley of how many federal members of parliament there are per person in each state has underscored the discrepancy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-tasmanians-have-four-times-more-power-than-voters-in-nsw-and-victoria-20171003-gytdx0.html
    The majority of Liberal voters support a strong clean energy target, putting them at odds with the government over its hostile stance on the issue. A survey of more than 2000 Australians, commissioned by the Climate Council, found 77 per cent believed the government should implement Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s clean energy target.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/10/03/liberal-voters-back-clean-energy/
    A Senate committee that probed controversial penalty rate deals has recommended the Fair Work Act’s better-off-overall test be strengthened to ensure enterprise agreements delivered the best pay outcomes for workers. It was a majority report so don’t expect any action. Google.
    /national-affairs/industrial-relations/senate-call-to-change-workplace-laws-to-optimise-employee-pay/news-story/effa4e22fb7efe79dc93f2f6481aaad8
    Donald Trump seems addicted to violence. It shapes his language, politics and policies. He revels in a public discourse that threatens, humiliates and bullies.
    https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-passion-for-cruelty-84819
    Are global neo-Nazism and far-right white supremacy are the new normal?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/far-right-trio-convicted-but-the-seeds-of-the-fourth-reich-were-already-sown,10776

  16. Section 4 . . .

    Stephen Koukoulas says that retailers are facing a tough Christmas.
    https://thekouk.com/item/542-retailers-face-a-tough-christmas.html
    Will single-sex schools disappear by 2035?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/singlesex-schools-will-disappear-by-2035-warns-education-body-20171002-gysk1a.html
    The High Court should disqualify Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce from parliament or risk rewarding “careless behaviour and “perpetuating destabilisation” in the political system, according to former Member for New England Tony Windsor via his legal representative Justin Gleeson SC. Google.
    /national-affairs/tony-windsor-takes-swipe-at-old-foe-barnaby-joyce/news-story/a0985df742e6b5d9110caf0aa853faff
    Adele Ferguson has a good look at the potential for corruption surrounding the awarding of mining licences.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/miners-leave-themselves-open-to-corruption-report-finds-20171003-gythoa.html
    Leave supporters among the British working class threw a tantrum in the Brexit referendum about immigration, and often complained about Europeans taking the jobs they themselves had refused to do, the Europe minister, Sir Alan Duncan, has said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/03/brexit-vote-was-tantrum-by-british-working-class-says-alan-duncan
    A congestion tax for Melbourne?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/call-for-driver-charge-to-ease-melbournes-peakhour-traffic-20171002-gysva6.html
    Along with other measures terrorism suspects could be interrogated for up to 14 days before being charged under a major shake up of Australia’s terrorism laws being proposed by the Turnbull government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-pushes-for-law-to-detain-terror-suspects-for-up-to-14-days-before-charges-20171003-gytill.html
    Nicholas Stuart writes that the US banning of Kaspersky shows governments still don’t get it when it comes to cybersecurity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/us-kaspersky-ban-shows-governments-still-dont-get-cybersecurity-20171003-gyta6g.html
    As local retailers worry about the arrival of Amazon destroying their business, the taxman will soon need to start worrying about how Amazon is going to work to minimise its tax bills.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/red-flags-raised-over-amazons-australian-tax-arrangements-20171002-gyso45.html

  17. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Simon Letch sums up the US.

    As does this contribution from Cathy Wilcox.

    And does Paul Zanetti.

    Ouch! David Pope hits the US where it hurts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Macca goes to Vegas.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/caca4e08a2e53c60eb359b0594447548?width=1024
    Ron Tandberg introduces whiteout Malcolm.

    A cutting epitaph from Fiona Katauskas.

    More good stuff from Fiona.

    Zanetti gives us the Australian Rocket Man Defence System.

    David Pope is wondering if Trump is about to get pulled down.

    Jon Kudelka on when it’s the time to talk about gun control in the US.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e1b3a649ec70e487d650dcd6cb14a2f0

  18. Trump Insults Puerto Rico By Telling Them That Their Devastation Isn’t A Real Catastrophe

    Trump tried to downplay the devastation by telling Puerto Ricans that their disaster wasn’t a real catastrophe like Hurricane Katrina.

    The President said, “Every death is a horror, but if you look at a real catastrophe like Katrina, and you look at the tremendous — hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people that died, and you look at what happened here, with really a storm that was just totally overpowering, nobody’s ever seen anything like this. What is your death count as of this moment? 17? 16 people certified, 16 people versus in the thousands.”

    To recap, Trump has gone to Puerto Rico to tell them that he is doing a great job, yell at Puerto Ricans for throwing his budget out of whack by getting hit with two massive hurricanes and that their devastation is not a real disaster.

    Both the White House and Puerto Rico would have been better off if Trump had stayed at home plopped down on his couch watching Fox News. Trump is only making things worse, and the sooner he gets off of the island, the better it will be for Puerto Rico.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/03/trump-insults-puerto-rico-telling-devastation-real-catastrophe.html

  19. In Bizarre Moment, Trump Throws Paper Towels At Puerto Rico Hurricane Victims

    Trump passed out food to hurricane victims in Texas and Florida, but Puerto Ricans got the President throwing rolls of paper towels into the crowd.

    Trump is doing everything imaginable to show that he doesn’t care and doesn’t want to be there. While the President tried to make a grand gesture out pretending to give a damn about hurricane victims in red states, he isn’t trying to hide his contempt in Puerto Rico.

    Donald Trump seems to hate the people of Puerto Rico, and one gets the sense that the vast majority of residents feel the same way about Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/03/trump-throws-paper-towels-puerto-rico-hurricane-victims.html

  20. MSNBC’s Mika: No Republican lawmakers would appear on ‘Morning Joe’ to discuss the Las Vegas massacre

    SNBC’s “Morning Joe” hosted two Democratic lawmakers — but no Republicans — to talk about gun laws in the wake of the horrific mass shooting in Las Vegas.

    But that’s because no Republicans agreed to go on TV to discuss the massacre, according to co-host Mika Brzezinski.

    “We just want to mention that we did ask a number of Republicans to be on this morning, because you’re seeing a lot of Democratic lawmakers joining us this morning, and they all declined,” Brzezinski said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/msnbcs-mika-no-republican-lawmakers-would-appear-on-morning-joe-to-discuss-the-las-vegas-massacre/

  21. ‘Poor excuse for a human being’: Internet recoils after Trump whines Puerto Rico hurricane wrecked budget

    During a discussion with Puerto Rican officials, President Donald Trump blamed the U.S. territory for the damage caused by Hurricane Maria. He explained that the crisis has thrown “the budget out of whack.” He qualified it saying, “I hate to tell you,” however.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/poor-excuse-for-a-human-being-internet-recoils-after-trump-whines-puerto-rico-hurricane-wrecked-budget/

  22. Sen. John Thune blames shooting victims for failing to ‘take precautions’ and ‘get small’ to avoid gunfire

    Sen. John Thune (R-SD) on Tuesday responded to calls for increased gun control after the massacre in Las Vegas by telling reporters that shooting victims had a responsibility to protect themselves from gunfire.

    But Thune shied away from the topic of gun control, arguing, “[I]t’s an open society and it’s hard to prevent anything.”

    Instead, the Republican senator offered advice to potential victims.

    “I think people are going to have to take steps in their own lives to take precautions,” he opined. “To protect themselves. And in situations like that, you know, try to stay safe. As somebody said — get small.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/sen-john-thune-blames-shooting-victims-for-failing-to-take-precautions-and-get-small-to-avoid-gunfire/

  23. Johnny Cash’s daughter: Country musicians must stand up to NRA because ‘they fund domestic terrorism’

    In a scathing New York Times op-ed, Rosanne Cash, daughter of the legendary Johnny Cash and his first wife Vivian Liberto, denounced the NRA — and called on her fellow country musicians to join her.

    “For the past few decades, the National Rifle Association has increasingly nurtured an alliance with country music artists and their fans,” Cash wrote. “You can see it in ‘N.R.A. Country,’ which promotes the artists who support the philosophical, if not economic, thrall of the N.R.A., with the pernicious tag line ‘Celebrate the Lifestyle.’”

    “That wholesome public relations veneer,” she continued, “masks something deeply sinister and profoundly destructive. There is no other way to say this: The N.R.A. funds domestic terrorism.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/johnny-cashs-daughter-country-musicians-must-stand-up-to-nra-because-they-fund-domestic-terrorism/

  24. Good Morning

    A reminder of hope that is still a majority of the US population by last presidential general election.

    MichelleObama: Happy 25th anniversary @barackobama. A quarter of a century later, you’re still my best friend & the most extraordinary man I know. I

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