ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

The sustained strength of One Nation has both parties plunging on the primary vote, making a looming state election exceedingly difficult to read.

As related by The Sunday Mail, Sky News has a ReachTEL poll of voting intention ahead of in Queensland, with results that make alarming reading for Labor ahead of a looming election. Primary votes are listed at 32.1% for Labor, 30.6% for the LNP, 18.1% for One Nation and 7.5% for the Greens, but this presumably does not account for an undecided rating that typically approaches 10%, and renders misleading the report’s comparison of the poll to results from the 2015 election. What is clear is that everything depends on preferences from One Nation, and the respondent-allocated result has them flowing mostly to the LNP, turning their slight deficit on the primary vote into a 52-48 advantage on two-party preferred.

The poll also finds Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls matching Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on preferred premier – a fairly striking result, notwithstanding the tendency of ReachTEL’s forced response measure to be less favourable to incumbents than those of other pollsters. Palaszczuk is credited with a 32.4% favourable rating, 34.0% unfavourable and 31.9% neutral; Nicholls with 24.7% favourable, 28.6% unfavourable and 39.7% neutral; and Pauline Hanson with 36.4% favourable, 42.3% unfavourable and 21.3% neutral. The poll was conducted from a big sample of over 4000, presumably on Thursday.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the undecided result was 7.7%. So the primary vote totals should properly be read as Labor 34.8% (down from 37.5% at the 2015 election), LNP 33.2% (down from 41.3%), Greens 8.1% (down from 8.4%) and One Nation 19.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

35 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Primaries according to @GhostWhoVotes:

    #ReachTEL Poll QLD State Primary Votes: ALP 32.1 LNP 30.6 ON 18.1 GRN 7.5 Other 4.1 Undecided 7.7 #qldpol #auspol

    No word on breakdown of “undecided”.

  2. Cupid – Until I was twenty, I never met anyone from Queensland who was not flat-out bonkers, and I’m not even sure about him.

  3. When I look at all the polls from 2015 to date…
    …ReachTEL stand out especially from Feb 2017.
    Pre election 31 January 2015 – their polling record, the two 2PP polls before the election were off at ALP 38 and LNP 46…

    I noticed between 22 May 2015 and 28 Oct 2017 they have never had a poll that showed ALP in front. Oh dear, why is that?

    As a Queenslander who has to constantly view the Courier Mail headlines laying on the corner shop door rack or reading from the floor when painting a wall… I am calling out ReachTEL… your polls, historically…. stink as bad as the pony poo I just put in the veggie patch.

    Statistically… that isn’t a polling record that supports a “LNP or ON victory” Murdoch headline or a reason to make a bet to run naked down Queen Street Mall if LNP win.

    Keep your pants on Queensland.

  4. Qld is a very diverse state, the Northern and Western populations vastly different in motivations and outlook than SE Qld.
    For some reason the contrived “sincere battler” image of Hansen cuts through, despite the ignorance and downright fraud of her One Nation cohorts.
    Nicholl’s politics are no better than Newman’s, and he contributed to a lot of the most unpopular policies of Newman’s govt.
    Palaszczuk must realise she will have to fight this election, it won’t be handed to her again, but its winnable because her opponents are such policy flakes.

  5. Watching Four Corners in Adelaide now and, sorry, but it is an absoute disaster for Anna Paluszczuk. The reappearance of discredited economic advisor Jobson Growth in her painful interview is a sure sign that she has no credible policy to apply. The RWNJs won’t vote for her anyway, the left will now go Green and possibly informal, and everyone will see she is lying.

    Anna is in a desperate situation, but this is no solution. She should oppose Adani and blame Canberra for the economic mess, and hope One Nation and the LNP steal votes from each other.

  6. Defection to the Greens isn’t much of an issue for Qld Labor with CPV back. There’s only ~3 seats that the Greens could win (and only 1 seems a real competition) and the votes will return to Labor on preferences. Playing to Adani is the smart political move, it’s just a terrible ethical / moral move.

  7. Elau, I wonder if Greens deliberately voting informal (“a pox o’ both your houses”) might be an issue. To my mind there are still plenty of issues that differentiate the ALP and LNP, but to a deep green voter who thinks the environment is the only issue there is no difference between them. So they would have a good(ish) reason to just vote 1, knowing that it would only count as a protest vote.

  8. It seems unlikely without a concentrated campaign for such (Greens voters don’t tend to vote informally) and I’ve seen no signs of such.

    It’s also risky since there are ~5 seats the Greens could potentially win over the new few electoral cycles and such a campaign could see them back by removing Green primary votes too (especially since there’s 1 seat that seems generally agreed to be contestable and at least another 1 that I know the Greens consider a possibility if a long shot. )

  9. QLD Labor where facing an uphill battle after the photo of Palaszczuk and Mr Adani shaking hands went viral.

    The justification for the coal mine being given is jobs, it was expected to be a dog-whistle, with everyone accepting the decision because, jobs at any price.

    As a lefty i wont be sad to see QLD Labor gone, but unfortunately it will have consequences for the next federal election, with most marginal seats up there.

  10. bug1
    “As a lefty i wont be sad to see QLD Labor gone, but unfortunately it will have consequences for the next federal election, with most marginal seats up there.”

    As a lefty, I was elated when Newman was catapulted out of office. But I’ve also been underwhelmed by the Palaszczuk govt, particularly the whole Adani thing. However, if Palaszczuk loses power long before the next federal election, it may actually help federal Labor in those marginal seats.

  11. Is there any evidence Adani mine will hurt OLD labor? Any polls ? No offence but i don’t think people in this forum understand Queensland voters at all and some are passing of their opinions with such confidence that I am curious if they know more than others.

  12. I am a Queensland voter. I’ve lived in Maranoa, the Sunshine Coast , Suburban and inner city Brisbane.
    Of course it’s potentially harmful to Labor in the inner city areas like it is in every other capital city.

    Qld is different only in the size and
    isolation of the rural population , which gives it a more generally conservative bent.

    But as a net it’s probably a positive, for a Labor government potentially losing an inner city seat or two to the Greens is >>>>> Greater than losing multiple regional / suburban / rural seats to the LNP / PHON.

  13. I would rather see Labor perform well in opposition than badly in government.
    People forget about a good opposition in months, but they remember a bad government for decades, QLD Labor are doing enormous brand damage, not as bad NSW did during their troubles, but something like that is what i see coming.
    If Labor loses support of the Left and the Center, who is left, its a weak campaign if you cant find volunteers, from what i can see there will more volunteers ready to oppose Adani then assists a state Labor campaign.

  14. “Playing to Adani is the smart political move, it’s just a terrible ethical / moral move.”

    In the short term (only) the former is true. In the long term the letter is true, and will do reputational damage. What if Qld Labor does not win anyway, and then damages Federal Labor in Qld in the next election? Imagine if Qld had a leader brave enough to call Adani on its job lies? If only…

  15. “I would rather see Labor perform well in opposition than badly in government.”

    Being in opposition achieves nothing, especially in QLD with no upper house to block legislation.
    I am against Adani as well but I am not going to ignore good works QLD gov have done either. If you are in opposition you are a loser.

    So far Qld gov invested in public transport (cross rail), introduced new worker-friendly industrial laws, removed discriminatory legislation against LGBT people, refunded public service and has encouraged renewable energy.

    You get none of this in opposition. Certainly not with LNP or god forbid LNP+One Nation government.

  16. Socrates
    Calling out Adani’s lies on jobs isn’t going to be very useful contextually. The employment prospects in the Galilee Basin and around the Carmichael Port are awful and the unemployment rate is high, the locals aren’t going to care if its 10 000 jobs or 1500 , either will seem like a bonanza to them. Clarifying the loss of (potential) jobs is about 1/10th what Adani claims is only going to be effective in more urban areas with better employment rates (and Labor is generally stronger in those anyway).

    Edit – You can basically bet that if Labor win though, they’ll wait until a bit before it becomes unavoidably obvious that 10 000 jobs aren’t happening and start distancing themselves from those numbers. “Losing” 9000 jobs is a bad look.

  17. Nicholas
    Don’t be silly. Queensland Labor is in a bad position at least in part because of 1) The resurgence of PHON , which has Queensland as a home state, which puts them in a defensive position and 2) They are in a minority government which has kneecapped them on at least 2 environmental issues I can think of. Both of those things are beyond their control and its pointless speculating what they may have done in a better political environment.

  18. Portraying a new coal mine as part of a good future for voters is dumb both on the policy merits and in terms of political presentation. Voters love renewable energy and they hate spivs who stand for nothing. Far more could have been gained for Qld Labor by presenting a realistic plan for regional development. Instead the morons second-guessed themselves and shackled themselves to a dud policy that exposes them as timid and stupid.

  19. There ain’t much in the way of realistic plans for regional development of currently undeveloped regions that don’t involve someone spending a fuckton of money and that will likely severely handicap growth in other current development centres. Our society no longer functions in ways that makes numerous smallish regional centres desirable (technology and scale has made rural workforces much smaller, long commutes are only problematic for individuals making them rather than someone travelling from Brisbane to Sydney needing a stop over location every days cart ride, etc) and you can only have so many areas with sufficient concentration of resources to enable our modern and future industries. No one is much interested in hearing or saying that though. Perhaps another leap in communication technology (like say mass real time teleconferencing and large data transfers that aren’t exactly on the cards anymore) could change that and ameliorate those problems but that seems unrealistic in the next decade.

  20. Mines aren’t necessarily a waste of resources, like say the creation of steel is still necessary. Massive new thermal coal mines probably are a waste of resources though, which is why Adani can’t get any private finance for it.

  21. UKIP does have Euro-sceptic allies in the European Parliament (Front National, etc.). The Tories are also grouped with some relatively nasty not all that EU friendly parties.

  22. Reported today Sportsbet has Labor favorites in 51 seats. The polling maybe not as glum as been suggested, also One Nation are not favorites in any of the seats including Lockyer .

    Greens have better odds in Scott Emerson seat of Maiwar then they are in South Brisbane. And they are not even favorites in Maiwar which they trail LNP and Labor which some might assume the Greens and the media are exaggerating on how well their polling in South Brisbane. Only chance for them in South Brisbane is if they get Liberal preferences.

    Sportsbet got the last election wrong, but it was such a huge upset and it was harder to predict seat to seat because the nature of the swings. This election I suspect their odds with seats will be more closer to the mark this time.

    Worrying for the LNP is Labor is firm favorites to knock over prominent shadow minister Ian Walker in Mansfield.

  23. So, I decided to throw in these numbers into a newly released QLD predictor, based off of last Federal Election Senate voting.

    You can find it here:

    Anyway, for the following:
    ALP: 34.8%
    LNP: 33.2%
    Greens: 8.1%
    PHON: 19.6%

    You get the following:
    ALP: 52 seats
    LNP: 30 seats
    PHON: 11 seats

    52 vs 41.

    Of course, this discounts KAP, whom it gives those seats to PHON. But it’s interesting nonetheless. If you put the Galaxy/Newspoll numbers in the results get even weirder.

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