New South Wales and Victorian state by-elections

A deep look into the looming state by-elections for Northcote in Melbourne’s inner north, where Labor is in danger of losing to the Greens, and three in New South Wales, including two where Shooters Fishers and Farmers can hope to repeat their coup against the Nationals in Orange last year.

State by-elections are looming in New South Wales, where voters in three electorates go to the polls in a fortnight’s time, and in Victoria, where the death of Labor government minister Fiona Richardson has initiated a by-election in the seat of Northcote. The latter looms as a tight race between Labor and the Greens, while two of the three New South Wales by-elections present the Nationals with the challenge of holding off Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who deprived them of the formerly safe seat of Orange in a by-election last November. Quick precis follow, together with links to comprehensive by-election guides hosted on my personal web space, which I’m steadily making more use of.

Victorian state by-election, November 18: Northcote

Support for the Greens has been growing in this inner northern Melbourne seat since the party’s breakthrough in 2002, when it first outpolled the Liberals to finish second in Northcote, Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick. The ABC reports that Labor internal polling points to a Greens victory, with Greens candidate Lidia Thorpe on 40% and Labor’s Clare Burns on 28%, with 17% undecided.

New South Wales state by-election, October 14: Blacktown

Former Labor leader John Robertson’s resignation has brought about a by-election in a seat where Labor looks set to go untroubled. The Liberals are not contesting, the Greens have little support in the seat, and the only other challengers to Labor’s Stephen Bali are the Christian Democratic Party candidate and a low-profile independent.

New South Wales state by-election, October 14: Cootamundra

Vacated by the resignation of Nationals member Katrina Hodgkinson. Labor is making the rare effort to contest this seat and Murray, but the main threat to Nationals candidate Steph Cooke may be Matthew Stadtmiller of Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

New South Wales state by-election, October 14: Murray

Vacated by the resignation of Adrian Piccoli, former deputy leader of the Nationals. Nationals candidate Austin Evans faces Helen Dalton, Shooters Fishers and Farmers candidate who ran second as an independent at the 2015 election with 18.2% of the vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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