Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.
Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.
Elaugaufein @ #1948 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 11:04 pm
He might be able to get away with it if the CPG help him out. If they both make mention of the fact that he was a ‘Yes’ from the beginning, just ‘too busy governing’ to campaign.
Not that Turnbull actually has been ‘too busy governing’.
He confected a ‘Gas Shortage Crisis’, that he then ‘solved’.
He has been working really, really hard on thinking up playground taunts for Bill Shorten and Labor.
And, um….
Exceedingly diplomatic, CTar1 🙂
DB Cooper,
You’ve got to admit that there was a fair bit of Turnbull ego-stroking going on as well.
Exceedingly diplomatic, CTar1
He’s had a lifetime of practice. : )
The MSM are desperately trying to make Brian Trumble popular again but the punters are taking no notice of their lame efforts.
Essential?
I think Turnbull will get little credit for a yes result from the survey.
Its been too full of hate. Both sides are claiming this. Thus there should have been no campaign. Basically people thinkk Turnbull was too weak to do hos job.
See all published polls after decision was made.
The best part of course those increased enrolments are bad news for the LNP too late to encourage voter apathy.
If the Survey says Yes, then all the Liberals who support Marriage Equality can and will vote with the Crossbenchers, Green and the vast majority of ALP MPs and Senators who support it and they have a combined majority. The opposition to Marriage Equality in the HoR is only (most or all of) the Nats, the more conservative Liberals, a handful of ALP conservatives and Katter (He deserved his teams loss in the NRL Grand Final after his nasty comments of the pre-game entertainment). The opposition to Marriage Equality in the Senate is conservative Liberals, Nationals, Gichuhi, Bernadi, One Nation and a handful (or less) of ALP conservatives. The former outnumber the latter in both houses and thus it will pass.
The MSM must be frustrated that their bullshit about Turnbull is not working.They just dont get that the punters are not listening,reading or believing their biased right wing columns.
LU – I’ve grown bored with describing him as ‘destructively expedient’, ‘self serving’ or just as an ‘ar#ehole’.
Cupid.
Yes. You see this at its most obvious with the Corbyn is the marxist demon incarnate. It has not worked in the UK and trying to say Mr Shorten is a Corbynist in disguise has kept Labor in front for 20 Newspolls
He’s had a lifetime of practice. : )
And it shows.
Even my more bourgeois socialist acquaintances are finally seeing through his veneer of respectability, and through that they are understanding the true character of the Libs.
I put it down to my all sweary descriptions of him 🙂
The MSM were still backing Abbott right to the end and Turnbull will be no different.I think the punters are now more savvy about the MSM than they ever were.
Ttfab,
It’s hard to reconcile a One Nation vote against SSM with James Ashby at their helm with Pauline.
guytaur @ #1964 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 11:50 pm
The terms, ‘Marxist’, ‘Socialist’ and ‘Stalinist’, have no resonance with the younger generation any more. They just mark you out as old.
Lol. A ‘Corbynist’! He’s wildly popular! : )
Probyn really can’t help himself –
‘Embraced’. Yep, we just love it …
What a turkey!
cupidstunt @ #1962 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 11:46 pm
It’s called ‘Social Media’ and it’s knocked the Mainstream media into a cocked hat!
Tom the first and best @ #1959 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 10:44 pm
An apt description of the state of play in Parliament. But what does the survey have to do with any of that, again?
It sounds like they could just draft some legislation and put it up for a vote, with or without the survey, and the outcome would be the same either way.
CTar1 @ #1970 Wednesday, October 4th, 2017 – 12:00 am
‘Needs must’ is more appropriate than ’embraced’ I think.
C@
Do you think that Ashby actually gives a f$ck about anyone else?
The polls in general are not as volatile as they used to be.The movements nowadays are slow and steady and it takes a hell of a lot more to turn round than they used to.The 53-47 to Labor is a lot stronger than it looks.
The question is whether the Libs will now attempt to add poison pills to the ME legislation and whether they will survive amendments.
A R,
The relevance of the postal plebithingy is that it enabled the craven Coalition to kick the issue of SSM into the long grass. Eventually they will have to face the music and dance to the nation’s tune though.
CTar1 @ #1974 Wednesday, October 4th, 2017 – 12:03 am
You might have a point there. He is hardly the faithful type who embraces the concept of homosexual monogamy, so they say. So, like he cares about it!
Okay, night all! : )
Night cat.
Goodnight all from me as well.
The 8 week election campaign virtually never changed the polls from 50-50 and the drift to Labor has been slow and steady and is now very much rusted on at 53-47.Gonna take a hell of a lot of turning round for Trumble and he just hasnt got what it takes.Neither have the MSM.
If the moderate Liberals, especially those on the front bench, voted for Marriage Equality without the survey saying yes the conservative Liberals and Nationals would likely tear the government apart. Thus the survey is the Moderate Liberals giving the bigots and excuse to rant (with an an outside chance at victory and get it covered (with more neutrality that would otherwise be the case) in exchange for the probable ability to vote for Marriage Equality in Parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/03/malcolm-roberts-likely-senate-replacement-avoids-bankruptcy
Fraser Anning has way cleared to become One Nation’s second Queensland senator if Roberts deemed ineligible
Cupid – I agree that the slow persistent growth is likely to be durable.
The Libs have tried a lot of thing that have worked in the past but this time have no effect.
Cormann hinting that they will offer an income tax cut is about as ‘old thinking’ as it gets. A good percentage of the ‘werking families’ that would be the target of that realise that what they’d actually get wouldn’t buy a coffee and they’d probably be more interested if the government said they’d use the money directly to lighten the cost of child care.
An interesting article
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-capitalism-nationalisation-churchill-atlee-manifesto-a7980471.html
3%
Proportion of people who own half of the country’s guns, according to an unpublished Harvard/Northeastern University survey result summary. Anchoring this group are America’s gun super-owners – an estimated 7.7 million Americans who own between eight and 140 guns.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/02/us-gun-control-ownership-violence-statistics
More than 30,000
The number of Americans killed with guns each year. About two-thirds of those are suicides.
More than 100,000
The number of people shot each year in the United States, according to a study published in the journal Health Affairs.
32%
The proportion of US men who said they personally owned a gun in 2015, down from 42% in 1994, according to the Harvard/Northeastern study.
12%
The proportion of US women who said they personally owned a gun in 2015, up from 9% in 1994.
127
The number of US cities and towns accountable for half of America’s gun homicides in 2015, according to a geographic analysis by the Guardian.
1,516 mass shootings in 1,735 days: America’s gun crisis – in one chart
The attack at a country music festival in Las Vegas that left at least 58 people dead is the deadliest mass shooting in modern US history – but there were six other mass shootings in America this past week alone.
No other developed nation comes close to the rate of gun violence in America. Americans own an estimated 265m guns, more than one gun for every adult.
Data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive reveals a shocking human toll: there is a mass shooting – defined as four or more people shot in one incident, not including the shooter – every nine out of 10 days on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2017/oct/02/america-mass-shootings-gun-violence
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2017/10/marriage-law-survey-turnout-is-high-but.html
Marriage Law Survey Turnout Is High … But Not That High!
also
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/10/legislative-council-2017-pembroke-by.html
Legislative Council 2017 – Pembroke by-election
My guide to a by-election coming up in Tasmania’s upper house
It will be a marvellous thing if Roberts is excluded from the Senate. There will be something irrefutably empirical about it.
There is something ironic about the only significant fully xenophobic party loosing its second Senator to the dual citizenship ban.
briefly @ #1990 Wednesday, October 4th, 2017 – 12:55 am
He could become an exclusion denialist, like Culleton.
[Kevin Bonham
briefly @ #1990 Wednesday, October 4th, 2017 – 12:55 am
It will be a marvellous thing if Roberts is excluded from the Senate. There will be something irrefutably empirical about it.
He could become an exclusion denialist, like Culleton.]
Maybe they could establish a Parliament in exile.
Public holiday on Monday (in NSW at least) so it should be out tomorrow morning. The sample that was too kind to the L-NP falls off this week.
Can’t find them. But if the 53-47 TPP is respondent allocated prefs then YouGov looks an even bigger waste of time than is already apparent.
EDIT: Essential should be THIS morning.
Guytaur:
“The best part of course those increased enrolments are bad news for the LNP too late to encourage voter apathy.”
Presumably the majority of new enrolments were from pepole wanting to see marriage equality happen. The upside of this, if a vote for yes passes, is that people who were reluctant to enrol to vote before may see that their vote can and does have a real impact, and so will continue to vote in future elections.
KB looks at goal post shifting by the “NO” advocates.
This is where I think they’ll have to go to claim a victory.
Estimates of the LGBTI community in Australia is 5%, so if “NO” gets more than this they will claim that more people oppose ME than wish to take advantage of it, therefore it should not proceed.
You know it makes sense!!!!
🙂
The best thing is, of course, Roberts knows the whole country will enjoy his political demise. It is just too delicious. He will always be remembered for asking of a defunct email account that immortal question “Am I still British?”
Thanks KB,
I would expect the turnout to be quite high because we don’t have an optional voting culture in OZ. Whether it be elections where we queue to vote or “surveys” (Census) that we are compelled to answer. We like to moan as we participate.
[briefly
The best thing is, of course, Roberts knows the whole country will enjoy his political demise. It is just too delicious. He will always be remembered for asking of a defunct email account that immortal question “Am I still British?”]
Wasn’t it a never existed email address?
I’d be interested to here their reaction to Anning having bankruptcy proceedings ceased.
I’m not sure they would have been too happy.
The petitioner against Anning and his wife was a branch of Bendigo Bank. They withdrew proceedings. Maybe someone resolved the debt…would be interesting to know what happened. There are plenty of people who’d like to stir things up inside ON.