BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Pity none of us get to see the AG, Walker SC and Gleeson SC in action and we don’t know much about the expert evidence or other evidence being used in the proceedings.

    Get Up should start a campaign to reallocate resources from live coverage of McDonald/Sullivan in Estimates to the HC.

  2. This poem was posted in the comments to the attached article.

    [I wasn’t asked, if we could go to war,
    No one asked my permission, no one knocked at my door.
    So the soldiers were sent, many have died,
    But without my consent, others decide

    I wasn’t asked, if it was alright,
    To keep people in cages, no asylum in sight.
    A future uncertain, hope barely afloat,
    It wasn’t my choice, if you got here by boat.

    I wasn’t asked, at my humble abode,
    If I preferred fibre to house, or just to the node.
    Short sighted maybe, slower indeed,
    But the future PM, says it’s all that I’ll need.

    I wasn’t asked, how to tax what is mined,
    I shouldn’t care, whose pockets were lined.
    Why should they ask? That would be funny,
    If I had a say, on this nations money.

    I wasn’t asked, if I thought it a crime,
    For a sick person to choose, when its’s their time.
    Suffer in silence, doped up in bed,
    It wasn’t my call, it was a government head.

    I wasn’t asked, to make all these calls,
    My voice wasn’t needed, in parliament halls.
    You are elected to lead, to serve in my stead,
    The fucking nerve, to ask me which Australians can wed.

    Rob Bennett]

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/03/vote-for-marriage-equality-and-shame-your-parliament-into-doing-their-duty

  3. I’d love there to be live coverage of HCA, except then I’d never get any work done. Put it on free to air so I can timeshift it!

  4. shellbell

    BW is promising to lay off the umpires at next year’s grand final!

    Ah, so no discount,the full QC chargeable hourly rate for boerwar 🙂

  5. Kevin Bonham
    I’d love there to be live coverage of HCA, except then I’d never get any work done. Put it on free to air so I can timeshift it!

    And the bits that upset ray Hadley can be replaced by his own singing.

  6. Now things are starting to get interesting in the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ camps:

    ‘Yes’ advocate accuses Coalition for Marriage of defamation over ‘extremist’ label

    A Canberra public servant and “yes” advocate is taking legal action against the official “no” campaign vehicle, the Coalition for Marriage, alleging it defamed her by depicting her as an “extremist”.

    Jill Moran claims the use of her photograph in a media release denouncing “the extremists of the ‘yes’ campaign” falsely portrays her as a bully, a violent protester and a political extremist…

    In a statement, the Coalition for Marriage denied it had defamed Ms Moran, accusing her of “deliberately and brazenly disrupting a peaceful anti-Safe Schools event”.

    It argued it had not named Ms Moran, and noted she had tweeted the image with the caption “smashing the heteropatriarchy”. She also made social media posts defending “good friends” who had been arrested at protests.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/yes-advocate-accuses-coalition-for-marriage-of-defamation-over-extremist-label-20171002-gysihf.html

    Remind me who is saying the SSM plebithingy is all about ‘Free Speech’ again!?! Just not if you are against them.

  7. Zoomster

    I was very busy yesterday so could not reply.

    I applaud you for taking the trouble to find and read some articles about Clinton and her status as a hawk. I am serious ie not trying to be rude or patronizing in any way at all.

    I had no problems with the links you posted and possibly agree with most of it.

    While I do not expect you to agree with me, I hope at least you will appreciate that the status of Hillary as a Hawk is not a figment of my imagination.

    Essentially the choice was between an intelligent and highly capable women who is also an avowed war hawk and an unstable greedy man who prefers sleezy trade deals to war (at least with whites anyway).

  8. Steve777:
    “When you get down to it, the only “sins” that matter are those that threaten the institution and the power of the elites. Personal crimes and peccadilloes, especially among the elites, don’t matter as long as they don’t threaten the power structure.”

    I agree with that, but what threat do LGTBIQ folk present to the church? Other than providing a cause to unite against – but there are many others. I suppose the allure is to perpetuate their ability to control sexual behaviour.

  9. What a horrifying statistic:

    Since Sandy Hook there have been at least 1,518 mass shootings in America. At least 1,715 people killed and 6,089 have been wounded.

  10. Yimby – I like that term. It’s time to fight back against Nymbys who put their own silly parochial interests ahead of the greater good. I’d love this kind of sentiment to come here and lead a massive purge of the Adelaide City Council (and other selfish, myopic councils.)

    (No – nobody is proposing every bit of nature be paved over, or that every single building, regardless of its history, be demolished in favour of a tall glass tower – just more commonsense and less selfishness.)

  11. [Mr Newbie
    Steve777:
    “When you get down to it, the only “sins” that matter are those that threaten the institution and the power of the elites. Personal crimes and peccadilloes, especially among the elites, don’t matter as long as they don’t threaten the power structure.”

    I agree with that, but what threat do LGTBIQ folk present to the church? Other than providing a cause to unite against – but there are many others. I suppose the allure is to perpetuate their ability to control sexual behaviour.]

    If I can butt in, I think the threat ME represents is the normalising of behaviour that directly conflicts with many churches teachings.

    When Society says there is nothing wrong with your relationships and they are just as worthy of recognition as any heterosexual relationship, it’s another example of views expressed from the pulpit not matching the reality seen outside their doors.

    Also some senior people within the churches believe that they should have a say in defining marriage and other social issues, so ME would be a clear rebuke to that perceived authority and influence by demonstrating clearly that it is a societal institution not a religious one.

    All this in a Society which continues to walk away from the churches and religion because they lack relevance.

    So, it is important for some churches to oppose you and when you look at who they are you can be pretty certain your on the right side of the issue.

  12. Brexit: “Not good enough, Trezza”

    The European Parliament is calling for Brexit talks to be delayed after it warned that “sufficient progress has not yet been made” on key areas, including citizens’ rights and the so-called divorce bill.

    MEPs overwhelmingly backed a resolution saying not enough progress on key separation issues had been made.

    They and warned that a “major breakthrough” was now needed to reenergise talks.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-negotiations-talks-latest-sufficient-progress-not-made-european-parliament-eu-leaders-theresa-a7980351.html

  13. You can probably make a case Xenophon shouldn’t get the boot under established precedent. By all accounts he did take reasonable steps (he checked both his Cyprus and Greek citizenships) and his remaining pseudo-British Colonies Citizenship is fairly esoteric. That seems to fall under reasonable effort (and there’s no possibility he withheld it by deceit for personal benefit since Australian citizenship has superior rights).

    The rest of it may be dumb in the context of modern views of citizenship and the breakup of British citizenship but it’s what the Constitution says and Parliament was to damn lazy to try and fix it despite having been warned at least twice, so on their head it falls.

  14. Rational Leftist
    You might want to check that Yimby movement more carefully then. There’s strands of it that look like property developers are taking the opportunity to use a grassroots movement to do some astroturfing (like opposing any reserve for low income housing in new developments in what are low income areas).

  15. Elaugaufein @ #1920 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 9:10 pm

    The rest of it may be dumb in the context of modern views of citizenship and the breakup of British citizenship but it’s what the Constitution says and Parliament was to damn lazy to try and fix it despite having been warned at least twice, so on their head it falls.

    We’ll see. IIRC shellbell correctly called the result of the postal survey challenge. And he’s leaning towards the side of the AG’s submission (which gives almost everybody a pass).

    I think that means bad times ahead, at least for people who’d like the see the government lose its majority sooner rather than later.

  16. CTar1

    Being a “colonial” it is with some schadenfreude that I think of all the historical reasons so many European countries might just want to stick it to the Poms 🙂

  17. Mr Newbie @9:33PM: “I suppose the allure is to perpetuate their ability to control sexual behaviour.”

    I think that’s part of it. Looked at one way, organised religion resembles a vast structure to control reproduction. Indiscretions, especially by the elites, don’t matter as long as they stay in the shadows. People can be gay, even priests and bishops, as long as they support the structure and don’t rock the boat. Meanwhile peasants can be jailed, exiled, burnt at the stake, whatever.

    But if gay people (or people who think the Earth goes round the Sun or whatever the issue of the day) demand public recognition, they cross a red line.

  18. CTaR1

    May trying desperately to tie trade to the other issues.

    The EU saying, ‘No potato. We fix citizenship and the divorce bill and maybe Ireland first. Then we talk trade.’
    This was the EU’s declared stance before the first round of negotiations.
    Davis conceded it on day 1.

    Now the Tories seem to have three positions:

    1. What they have already conceded on the ordering of the issues with a desperate plea that enough progress has been made on the EU’s priority issues to enable the EU to commence trade negotiations so that it can all be more or less sorted in March 2019.

    2. Give us a two year extension while we muddle this one through.

    3. The EU can just fuck off we’re out of here.

    The Tory negotiating ‘team’ is thoroughly fractured.

    The EU team – all 27 countries – is holding itself together remarkably well.

  19. A R
    I was referring only to what I think should happen. Not what I think will happen. It’ll be interesting to see if the current Court is going to demonstrate a fairly strong favor of Government arguments over the idea that people don’t generally write words into legislation if the intent is for those words to be ignored.

  20. Barney:
    “I think the threat ME represents is the normalising of behaviour that directly conflicts with many churches teachings.”

    Therein lies the trouble. Why single out the quotes that supposedly forbid same-sex relationships, though, when there are so many other forbidden things which are now commonplace that are also “abominations”. I think the opposition to homosexuality is also based on the lesser likelihood of creating new offspring who can be brainwashed in childhood to follow said religion.

  21. p
    Several of my Dutch rellies feel betrayed. They were reasonably pro-Anglo but feel that the Brits have stabbed them in the back. If the pro Brits in the EU feel like that, imagine how the Perfidious Albion merchants in France are feeling.

  22. The OH NO mob are starting to twig that, having tied a slew of extraneous issues to a simple Yes or No vote by way of doing bastard spoiling, their preferences in relation to those extraneous issues are at risk should there be a resounding Yes.

  23. CTaR1

    LOL.

    The interesting thing is that there are huge interests at play inside the EU which would be totally supportive of not smashing the British nose to spite their national faces. Profit is, after all, profit.

    And yet the Brits seem thoroughly intent on destroying their friendships and actual and potential allies across the ditch.

  24. [frednk
    I still believe Britain will not leave the EU. The only unknown is the cost the EU will extract for them to stay.
    ]

    Would monetary union be a step too far?

  25. poroti / Bw

    There were 92 MEPs who voted against the “sufficient progress has not yet been made” motion.

    The UK has 73 MEPs.

    I wonder who the other 19 were.

  26. There is a pattern of Tory policy announcements and statements designed to reassure the hoi polloi that the Tories really, truly care for them. These include housing support and so on and so forth. Think Corbyn ultra-lite.

    They have clearly been shocked by the fact that the punters know that they are a mob of elitist pillagers.

  27. CTar1 it’s unlikely that even all the UK MEPs voted that sufficient progress was made. MEPs are directly elected , not appointed, so they don’t necessarily vote in favour of their countries executive.

  28. Elaugaufein – Understood.

    I’m intrigued enough that I’ll check to see who made up the 92 and the 29 abstainers when I’ve got time.

  29. Oh dear, the CPG, as a result of today’s SSM voting figures from the ABS, is back to polishing Turnbull’s halo. Apparently, the postal plebithingy was a masterstroke of Turnbull’s!

    Australians’ unlikely reacquaintance with the humble post box has vindicated Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to push ahead with a non-compulsory vote on legalising same-sex marriage….

    It turns out that Australians have embraced an unorthodox exercise in democracy…

    Watch too for Malcolm Turnbull getting more involved in the campaign towards its conclusion if polls consistently predict a strong win for the Yes campaign.

    Being on the right side of an issue with popular support would be a grand way to end a difficult year.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-03/same-sex-marriage-survey-secures-legitimacy-with-high-turnout/9012216

    Lord give me strength to not go down to Canberra and nut Andrew Probyn! : )

  30. Heh. I wonder if people would give Turnbull credit for getting behind it late in the game when its clearly the winning horse, or if that would only make him look more pathetic.

  31. Wait until the great procrastination begins. My bet is Turnbull won’t get a change through parliament no matter how big the yes vote is.

  32. IoM

    Yep.

    Have you seen video/audio of Farage in ‘action’ in the Parliament?

    He just rants about how useless they all are and just picks other MEPs seemingly at random to directly insult.

    If you were a Pom watching it you’d be embarrassed.

  33. To be fair to Andrew Probyn, I don’t think he is claiming that the process has necessarily been legitimised, but rather that the final result has, due to the large turnout.
    If the apparent trend continues, it won’t leave any wriggle room for people claiming that it isn’t a true indication of the population’s view. Of course, people such as Abbott, Abetz, and Andrews will never vote in Parliament for legalising same-sex marriage, but many others will want their vote to be cast on the right side of history.

  34. I don’t think Turnbull will benefit.

    His lack of fidelity to things he strongly espoused before becoming PM, I think, has sunk in with the majority of voters.

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