BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. briefly
    The effect of S 44(i) is that a person could be eligible to nominate for election at one point in time – say in September 2017 – and contest and be successful in an election and then in October 2017 become ineligible to serve because of changes to the citizenship laws of another country. This could occur without the person being aware of the changes and, in such a case, could never in any sense affect the allegiance of the person involved.

    If S44(i) is about anything, it is about conflicted allegiance. How can it make sense for a person to have divided allegiance when they are not aware of either a past or a new conferral of foreign citizenship?

    There is undue reverence given to the purported views of the Constitutional Conventions. The men who comprised the Conventions were not prepared to wholly trust the Parliament – and, by implication, the voters – to decide the eligibility of its own future membership. At the same time they decided Aboriginal Australians would not be citizens – and therefore could not become electors or seek election – while British Subjects from NZ, Canada, South Africa, India or the UK would be eligible to sit in the Parliament.

    They had quite oppressive ideas about allegiance. They were prepared to exclude from the Parliament people who had settled here and become solely Australian citizens but who had formerly made oaths of allegiance to other powers. In 1901, it was not in itself enough to become a citizen unless one was already a British Subject, in which case citizenship was not an issue at all.

    This really did create different classes of citizen with respect to rights to political participation. This discrimination remains embedded in the Constitution. It is wholly archaic. The provision these days is highly undemocratic in its effect. The legislature should be drawn from the people – from all those citizens eligible to vote. As it stands, about half of those people who are to be represented in the Parliament will be disqualified from election on the basis of the entirely spurious notion that their allegiance may be in doubt.

    As long as it’s possible to hold dual or multiple citizenships in Australia, it should be lawful for such citizens to seek to represent their peers in the Parliament.

  2. I have a friend, Tammy Solonec, who was a candidate in the last Federal election. She was born in the Kimberley to an Aboriginal mother and an immigrant father. It’s quite likely she would have been eligible to become a dual citizen. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever that Tammy should be disqualified from election to the Commonwealth Parliament on the basis of possibly conflicted allegiance. That is an insane idea. Yet it is the premise underlying 44(i).

  3. Canavan and Roberts very similar types.

    “They have done nothing wrong”.

    It’s mothers, sisters and foreign governments who have made their positions a problem.

  4. Despite relative peace, law and order in Spain for 30 years many people are still wanting independence from Spain – the Basques, Gibraltar and Catalonia.

    The levels of unemployment in the country must play be some part in this.

  5. briefly

    The men who comprised the Conventions were not prepared to wholly trust the Parliament – and, by implication, the voters – to decide the eligibility of its own future membership.

    They were not unique in that. In the US the founding fathers inserted the Electoral College to actually appoint the President almost making the presidential election ‘window dressing’. Their treatment of indigenous also ‘same’.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Paul Bongiorno criticises the name calling that is going on with the energy debate and other issues. A typically good article from this veteran.
    Tony Wright tells us how Australia blew its future gas supplies.
    Jack Waterford describes how Turnbull is being kept afloat by surface tension. A long article well worth reading.
    A excellent contribution for a Fairfax journalist about his friendship with Liberal MP Dean Smith and how he watched Dean transform over the years from a same-sex marriage sceptic to a passionate supporter.
    The SMH editorial explains why the YES vote should win.
    Richard Ackland begins this article with “It was uplifting to see Father Paul Kelly, editor-at-large of The Catholic Boys Daily, beating the drum for a religious freedom bill. Never mind that already we have too much religious freedom; Father Kelly wants more. It was one of his traditionally wordy pieces, but he still didn’t have enough words to explain just how religious freedoms would be trampled should same-sex couples be treated equally by the law, or just what freedoms were at risk.”
    Michael Koziol examines the many claims in the SSM campaigns.
    The whineosaurus Gerard Henderson says a YES vote will be a plunge into the great unknown. Google.
    Mike Seccombe and the money case for SSM. Another interesting contribution from him.
    Back in 2014, Welsh crooner Tom Jones starred at the AFL grand Final. Among the songs he performed was his hit Delilah, which graphically tells the story of a jilted man who knifes his girlfriend to death. This song was deemed unworthy of complaint by the then Prime Minister of Australia, Tony Abbott.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Mark Kenny reports that Paul Keating has moved to rebalance the historical record by elevating former Labor leader Bill Hayden to centre-stage for his formative part in what is usually referred to simply as the Hawke-Keating period.
    Simon Cowan says that Coalition must stop gaming budget forecasts if it wants credibility
    Crispin Hull looks at a recent study on the relationship between cognitive ability and bringing about change. He touches on the current SSM issue as well.
    Phil Coorey on how some Coalition MPs are voting NO by hoping for a YES outcome. Google.
    A quick trip through the inglorious history of marriage, inequity and angry inequality campaigners in Australia, by Kelly Jenke.,10767
    Cory Bernardi’s nice work on behalf of Craigburn Primary School. Not quite what he intended though.
    Senate powerbrokers Pauline Hanson and Nick Xenophon say they cannot support a lower tax rate for medium and big businesses in the current climate, delivering a blow to the government’s efforts to legislate its remaining company tax cuts. Google.
    A neo-Nazi who fantasised about shooting up a shopping centre has been sentenced to at least four and a half years in jail for weapons and child pornography offences, with a judge pointing to his obsession with “sex, guns and death”. Yes, definitely a special breed!
    States that fail to permit coal seam gas mining would be penalised under a fresh proposal from the Grants Commission to change the method of distributing goods and services tax revenue. Petulance perhaps?
    The push for coal seam gas continues to leave communities wary.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    David Speers accuses state leaders of being blind to the ramifications of the energy crisis. Google.
    Meanwhile thousands of Canberra’s low-income households are facing a “double whammy” from gas bills, with gas-related debt in the ACT the highest of any jurisdiction on the national energy market. With average gas bills rising in the ACT from between $833 and $881 in 2012-13 to a whopping $1481 to $1688 in 2015-16, so too have related debts.
    Rodney Croome writes that Australia’s homophobia is deeply rooted in its convict past.
    John Power in The Saturday Paper tells us why we won’t be getting a federal ICAC any time soon.
    A vaginal mesh implant made by Johnson & Johnson (J&J) was launched without a clinical trial, and then marketed for five years after the company learned that it had a higher failure rate than their two earlier devices. The lawyers around the world will have a field day no doubt.
    Peter Hartcher tells us that we are in a moment between techno-rapture and techno-panic. He then goes on to explain how we can thrive when the robots come.
    On the same subject Ross Gittins says that our bulldust detectors are on the blink.
    This lawyer and former Wallaby says why the NRL is right and that sport and politics should mix.
    Adele Ferguson writes that when veteran retailer Solomon Lew let fly at the woeful performance of Myer he put the spotlight on the value of consultants, saying the department store chain was a “basket case” being run “primarily” by consultants after losing a lot of good retailers. Yes – there are consultants and there are consultants! There is so much in this article that is right.
    The iconic Australian engineering company, SMEC, formerly the Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation, has had five of its subsidiaries banned by the World Bank after the discovery of “inappropriate payments” linked to projects in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

  9. Section 4 . . .

    A broadcaster and former MP writes about the damage being done by the inability (unwillingness) of the government to do its proper job in legislating SSM.
    Harvey Norman’s audited 2017 accounts released on Friday show how the group has moved off its balance sheet up to $782 million of franchisee debt. The result is that the franchisee accounts are more opaque than ever. And Gerry wonders why people get upset with him! Google.
    Richard Wolffe writes that Trump is the puppet of his rich business friends. You don’t need a special counsel to find the evidence. Twice this week, when given the choice between his wealthy buddies and the working Americans he claims to care about, Trump has taken the gold-plated path.
    Elton Musk is on track with the big battery farm in SA. Google.
    Jay Weatherill has made lemonade from the lemon he was handed exactly 12 months ago.
    Since the City of Port Adelaide Enfield publicly declared its support for an increase to Newstart in August, six more South Australian councils have joined the push to boost this meagre allowance.,10769
    Desperate Pacific islands at risk of sinking beneath the sea say Australia is “stuck in the Dark Ages” by relying on fossil fuels, in response to alarming data showing this nation’s energy emissions have hit record highs. As if we didn’t know!
    Emissions of the greenhouse gas methane from livestock are somewhat larger than previously thought, posing an additional challenge in the fight to curb global warming, scientists have said.
    There is nearly $18 billion sitting in the super system without a home according to new figures and some of it could be yours. The Australian Tax Office has reported that the amount of money held in unclaimed superannuation accounts jumped 21.3 per cent to $17.9 billion in the year to June 2017.

  10. Section 5 . . .

    Former building industry watchdog Nigel Hadgkiss has been ordered to pay $8500 for breaching the Fair Work Act. Somehow I don’t think this will be the last we hear of Nr Hadgkiss.
    Jonathan Freedland looks at how leaving the EU would prevent a decent reshaping of the UK.
    Michael West gets stuck into the big auditing companies.
    In providing a comedic submission to the High Court Malcolm Roberts has emphatically – and empirically – argues his citizenship case is the strongest.
    In an increasingly uncertain world, it is comforting to know that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is just as laughably bumbling and bizarre as ever. Sydney bureau chief for The Independent Australia, Ross Jones, announces his nominees for the 2017 inaugural Gold Ashby awards.,10768
    The area of farmland under partial or full Chinese ownership has dramatically increased over the past year as the level of American and British interests has fallen. Over to you Porline.

  11. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir takes a justified swipe at Potatohead.×349.gyr1cq.png/1506686555326.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox on modern multiculturalism in Australia.
    Mark Knight is hoping for a Richmond win today.
    David Rowe and a certain streaker at the MCG.
    David Pope lines up Trump and Kim for the Grand Finale.
    Ron Tandberg is unimpressed with the government’s utterings on energy policy.
    Jon Kudelka takes Abbott to the footy.

  12. USA: A FEMO spokesman on CNN News just on saying ‘all is good’ … but on their internet news site –

    The mayor of Puerto Rico’s biggest city has berated a Trump cabinet official who called the US response to Puerto Rico, “a good news story”.

    Homeland Secretary Elaine Duke had said she was “very satisfied” with progress, calling it “a good news story in terms of our ability to reach people”.

    The San Juan mayor hit back: “Damn it, this is not a good news story. This is a people are dying story.”

    Over a week after Hurricane Maria struck, millions still need urgent aid.

  13. Trump Goes On Vacation as People Are Dying In Puerto Rico

    President Trump spoke to reporters Friday from the White House in Washington before he departed for Bedminster, New Jersey where he is expected to head to his Trump National Golf Club, telling them that Puerto Rico is going really well. Trump, having apparently learned nothing so far, added that the loss of life is always tragic but it’s “been incredible, the results we’ve had with respect to loss of life. People can’t believe how successful that has been, relatively speaking.”

  14. Trump whines about ‘cost of rebuilding’ Puerto Rico — and gets resoundingly destroyed by San Juan’s mayor

    The mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico on Friday shot back at Donald Trump after the president argued “big decisions” have to be made about the cost of rebuilding the island, which is still reeling from a lack of basic necessities over a week after Hurricane Maria hit.

    “The fact is that Puerto Rico has been destroyed by two hurricanes,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Big decisions will have to be made as to the cost of its rebuilding!”

    San Juan Major Carmen Yulín Cruz, who’s been critical of the administration’s response in Puerto Rico, took issue with Trump’s comment Friday, telling CNN, “If we let them die, nobody is going to pay the debt!”

  15. BK, good to hear of your pain relief. I hope it continues too. Good luck with it. And thanks for your dawn patrol, it is my first ‘port of call’ in the morning.

  16. BK @ #16 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 6:28 am

    CTar1 @ #212 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 5:55 am

    Bk – I hope your back pain has improved somewhat.

    I can’t believe how good my back is this morning! Even the decades old chronic background back pain seems to have vanished. I hope I’m not getting my hopes up too high though.

    Bonjour Monsieur BK

    I offer to you some of the words of a Kris Kristofferson song

    Just let me enjoy ’till its over
    Or forever
    Please don’t tell me how the story ends

    ☕ 😎

  17. BK

    Huge dawn patrol this morning. Thank you.
    Now please listen to Mother and don’t do anything that will strain your back for a few weeks. It needs time to settle down. 🙂

  18. BK,
    Great news! I kind of knew it would work well but I didn’t want to put the mockers on it by telling you about my positive experience with steroid injections. I have had them in the past for a neck problem after a car accident and for plantar fasciitis in my foot. I couldn’t walk on the foot, it was that painful, but after 2 rounds of guided injections into the area I can now walk unimpeded again!

    So, that is the only proviso I would add. That is, if you do feel, down the road, that the pain has reoccurred, even if only a little bit, a stitch in time saves nine, and so see if your GP thinks another injection warranted. You can’t have them regularly, because then they lose their efficacy, but once more to settle down any niggles should see you right.

    Am I then to assume you will now be playing cricket again this summer? ; )

  19. BK

    The Saturday Paper puts the boot in with truth telling about Dutton. Their editorial.

    Peter Dutton says there are a lot of people who “have made a lot of mischief over a long period of time”. It’s true, but not in the way Dutton means it.

    He does not argue when Ray Hadley says the first refugees to leave Manus for resettlement in the United States, “looked like a fashion show on a catwalk somewhere in Paris or New York”.

    Instead, he lies. He begins an argument about these refugees being economic migrants, despite two separate processes now assessing them to be refugees. He puts at risk a fragile deal to make a cheap point about the legitimacy of people he knows to be legitimate.

  20. ‘CTar1

    Another Marine Osprey A/C has been reported as having made a ‘hard landing*‘ in Syria.

    (* – crashed due to mechanical failure.)’

    The bit where the props move from vertical to horizontal and vikki verka is a bit tricky.

  21. The Bombardier story is reality politics for both the Tories and Labor.

    Basically, Boeing is conniving with the US power structure to try to destroy Bombardier building.

    297% tariff. America First in action.

    The take home lesson for the UK is that once it is out of the EU its negotiating clout will be close to zip.

  22. It felt like the 46-year-old billionaire’s late Steve Jobs “one more thing” moment.

    “If you build a ship that is capable of going to Mars, what if you take that spaceship and flew it from one place on Earth to another? So, we did that.”

    What if you take that spaceship and flew it from one place on Earth to another? So, we did that

    Elon Musk
    Musk said most of what the BFR would be used for is long-distance trips and would do them “in less than half an hour.”

    The BFR could fly people from Los Angeles to Toronto in 24 mins; Los Angeles to New York in 25 mins; Los Angeles to Hon

  23. The interviews not only spread Government good news. They are attempts, often strained, by Mr Turnbull to look relaxed, non-threatening, and comfortable in regular company.

    And the light touch of the FM patter contrasts with the heavy hands of traditional talkback and TV hosts — including most favoured by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott — who want guests to aid and abet their prolonged outrage.

    Malcolm Turnbull isn’t completely ignoring all the usual customers for his views and, for example, maintains his weekly chat with Neil Mitchell on Melbourne’s 3AW, which is proudly not an FM station.

    And he is cruising the morning TV programs, and popular news shows. It’s all adding up to a lot of ears and eyeballs he previously ignored.

    It seems the Prime Minister is expanding his reach rather than deleting some outlets, apart from a few who are decidedly and irreversibly hostile to him.

    He is not alone in seeking the headphones of these FM studios. On August 24 Labor Leader Bill Shorten appeared on five FM stations in the one morning.

  24. Thanks guytaur. A lot of effort must be going into tracing outdated addresses (sarc).

    Phelps said she couldn’t figure out why the forms went to an old post-office box, since AEC communications had previously come to her residential address.

    “We haven’t had a post box address for seven years,” she said. “If your survey form has not arrived and you want to vote yes, then check with the AEC because you should have received it.”

    Hinton-Teoh, the Just Equal spokesman, said he and his partner Chris had updated their details online but their surveys went to a postbox they hadn’t used for 15 years.

    “It is a clear sign that neither the electoral roll nor the update mechanisms the AEC provided were up to the task for this unprecedented and entirely unnecessary process,” he said.

    “More than ever, it is clear that this survey result will reflect the motivated and persistent on both sides of this issue, considering the barriers we’ve experienced.”

    Hinton-Teoh suggested the ABS should allow all Australians to use an online mechanism made available to Australians currently overseas for voting, rather than the “inefficient and unreliable postal service”.

  25. briefly @ #2 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 3:24 am

    I have a friend, Tammy Solonec, who was a candidate in the last Federal election. She was born in the Kimberley to an Aboriginal mother and an immigrant father. It’s quite likely she would have been eligible to become a dual citizen. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever that Tammy should be disqualified from election to the Commonwealth Parliament on the basis of possibly conflicted allegiance. That is an insane idea. Yet it is the premise underlying 44(i).

    All Tammy had to do was renounce her dual citizenship. S44 is perfectly clear in its original intent, and the subsequent HC clarifications have been in keeping with that intent. I think most Australians would agree with this intent, but you are perfectly welcome to try and get up a referendum to change it. But in the meantime, nothing would stop Tammy for standing for parliament.

  26. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for a mammoth effort this morning and good to hear you’re feeling better.

    The cartoonists are sure having fun with Abbott and NO! these days. Love the Abbott-proof fence.

  27. Lizzie

    I am not surprised. I despite complaining still get parcels delivered to the neighbouring post office not my home or LPO even when I am at home.

    Previously Australia Post had no problem delivering to me. So add another bureaucracy on top with the ABS not having updated details in the database its inevitable. In both cases by design I reckon.

    I think the advocates are wrong about the online thing. Thats only been used for OS people because of time factors. As we know unless you have paper ballots the Russians amongst others can hack online polls.

  28. BK

    On the back good to hear. As a few have said “Don’t f’ken over do it!”

    The small solar gens are quite neat.

    I don’t know what the competition for this segment of the market is like but they look rugged, are trailer mounted, the best of the 3 will do 14 hours of fairly OK continuous output and 4 will fit quite easily in a standard 40′ container you’d think that emergency relief organisations and the military would be very interested.

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