BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. gt

    The BFR could fly people from Los Angeles to Toronto in 24 mins; Los Angeles to New York in 25 mins; Los Angeles to Hon

    Don’t forget the demise of the very much in use SST Concord …

    The technology works but the cost doesn’t!

  2. CT

    I like that Musk is putting this stuff out there. However I doubt many passengers will want the G forces involved. They will take the longer hours instead.

    For emergency aid kind of like Thunderbirds it could be useful though.

  3. Player One
    briefly @ #2 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 3:24 am

    I have a friend, Tammy Solonec, who was a candidate in the last Federal election. She was born in the Kimberley to an Aboriginal mother and an immigrant father. It’s quite likely she would have been eligible to become a dual citizen. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever that Tammy should be disqualified from election to the Commonwealth Parliament on the basis of possibly conflicted allegiance. That is an insane idea. Yet it is the premise underlying 44(i).

    All Tammy had to do was renounce her dual citizenship. S44 is perfectly clear in its original intent, and the subsequent HC clarifications have been in keeping with that intent. I think most Australians would agree with this intent, but you are perfectly welcome to try and get up a referendum to change it. But in the meantime, nothing would stop Tammy for standing for parliament.

    Tammy renounced…Labor candidate and all. But this is not the point. Tammy is an indigenous woman. Her heritage as an Australian has a pedigree of 60,000 years. Yet 44(i) rests on the assumption that because of the operation of laws in another country her loyalty is open to doubt. It’s crazy. Those foreign laws can (and do) change all the time, meaning the reach of 44(i) also changes all the time even though the allegiance and values of persons affected by 44(i) do not change in any relevant way at all.

    44(i) is absolute rubbish. It purports to be about the allegiance/s of candidates. But it’s not. It’s about law making and bureaucracy in other countries.

  4. Briefly

    I get where you are coming from. We don’t worry about this at a state level. As long as we have conflict of interest laws it doesn’t matter if we have politicians with dual nationality or not.

    For a referendum I would ditch that requirement and replace with transparency laws. Plus a Bill of Rights so basic norms cannot be overturned by a foreign power. Then its all up to democracy and what the people support.

    However until a referendum we are stuck with it.

  5. Trump Lawyers Ask Court to Toss Suit Over Business Holdings

    President Donald Trump asked a federal judge to throw out a lawsuit filed by two attorneys general accusing him of profiting from his office, in violation of the U.S. Constitution.

    The suit, filed by Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh and his District of Columbia counterpart, Karl Racine, contends the president’s continued ownership of his global business empire — including the Trump International Hotel in Washington — enables him to make money from foreign and domestic governments, breaching two Constitutional clauses intended to prevent that.

    “Plaintiffs’ broad-brush claims effectively assert that the Constitution disqualifies the President from serving as President while maintaining ownership interests in his commercial businesses,” government lawyers argued in court papers Friday.

  6. We really should have something like a citizenship unit in the parliamentary library which keeps abreast of all foreign citizenship laws. They wouldn’t need to actually vet all candidates but they could provide something similar to a travel advisory warning, and in the event of laws changing overseas, affected MPs could renounce their newly and unwittingly acquired allegiance in a timely manner to suit our constitutional arrangements.

  7. Shift

    Now thats a sensible suggestion. It gets resources available to all MP’s in an equitable manner. No worries over independent or party. Of course that information could be put on a website for potential candidates to peruse who are not in parliament and thus cannot access the parliamentary library.

  8. I wonder if there is anything in the requirement to pay a fee to renounce.

    An Australian born citizen legitimately unaware of a foreign law must pay a foreign power to be eligible to be a candidate in his or her own parliament. The intersection of all that wriggle room left by the liberal 92 High Court and these incontrovertible facts is intriguing.

    Indeed, the purpose of these quasi-citizenships has not been explored. My excursion into my previously unknown kiwiness suggests it is all about selling me stuff.

  9. Dan Gulberry @ #61 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 9:00 am


    Firefox loads my posts, but only if I post them using Chrome.

    I am using, mostly, desktop computers running Windows 10.

    I most use Firefox without C+ to read post because I like the little green box stating “#x new posts”.

    I also have Chrome with C+ for the use of many benefits for posting replies etc.

    Both Firefox and Chrome work equally well.

    I have Firefox V56.0 64 bit and Chrome Version 61.0.3163.100 (Official Build) (64-bit)

    I also have a samsung Tab s 8.4 running Firefox for android 55.0.2 which which works about as well as can be expected.

    I don’t know whether any of this will be of help.


  10. Presumably these 25 minute intercontinental flights in the Mars rocket will be very pricey. They will only be taken by those rich enough not to have to queue up at Airports to board, collect their luggage or get a taxi.

  11. The states do deal with different issues to the Feds, and thus dual allegiance is not as much of a concern.

    Someone with a true dual allegiance – that is, an MP who is effectively a double agent (and having an extra passport would mean that a getaway would be possible if things went pear shaped) is scarcely going to quibble about not declaring a conflict of interest.

    The provision around public servants not being eligible is based on the same concerns – that people will have access to information that they otherwise wouldn’t, and that there is the potential for this to be misused.

    MPs have access to information that ordinary citizens don’t – the 30 year rule is in place for this reason.

    Let’s say a dual Chinese/Australian, or Korean/Australian, or even US/Australian ends up being on a Defence committee, with access to strategic information ordinary citizens – even ordinary Defence personnel – don’t have. You don’t have to be a particularly highly placed MP for that to happen.

  12. The two month being faster than a kitchen renovation is being highlighted in their stories. Not good for Turnbull’s Snowy 2.0 comparison.

  13. Suppose, just suppose, in minute 1 of the GF someone in the Crows team does to Cotchin and Martin exactly what Cotchin did to Shiels in the first quarter.


  14. shellbell – The citizenship thing has surprised lots of people (Bw, I think for one, when I pointed out he could have a very easy and quick to acquire Dutch one with almost nil effort) but for aspiring politicians really only needs more prominent ‘publicity’ and ‘big writing’ about penalties on application forms for a working solution for now.

    The current situation will have hammered it in as a very much ‘must be done’ for parties.

  15. ‘The current situation will have hammered it in as a very much ‘must be done’ for parties.’

    Given neither of the majors has been caught up in it, not necessarily – although obviously the Libs might be offering the Nats some advice.

  16. Murdoch now attacking the child sexual abuse RC. Not unexpected, I suppose.

    Abuse inquiry’s approach ‘dubious’
    The $500m royal commission into institutional abuse is promoting harmful ideas and “brain babble”, experts warn.

  17. c

    There is reasonable debate inside the treating community about what is appropriate and what is not appropriate. In that fraught field, no surprise at all.

    The other non-surprise is that the same bastards who are plying the NO bastardry are plying the professional doubt bastardry.

  18. That neither of the major parties have been caught up in the citizenship fracas shows that the provisions around S44 have been understood for decades and complying with them is not very onerous.

  19. I agree with Quentin.

    ABC The Drum‏Verified account @ABCthedrum · 16h16 hours ago
    Quentin Dempster:
    “The Elon Musk announcement about Mars… I think emphasis ought to be on: how do we survive on the habitable planet called Earth” #TheDrum

  20. Personally I think we shouldn’t be trying to ‘colonise’ Mars. The bigger question is what can we do to protect what we have here on Earth?

  21. This seems typical of the current NBN shambles.

    Peter Anderson‏ @PeterAndersonAU · 14m14 minutes ago

    #NBNfail 3/4 aNBN_Australia say it’s not their problem contact your ISP! I’ve done that & they contact NBN who say there is no problem

  22. Zoomster

    I agree with you about the parties complying. Its not that difficult you would think. However Ludlam and Waters shows some sensible smart people being caught out.

    So some work on this could be done. While looking at it. It comes down to a basic.

    Any change needs a referendum. Protecting our strategic assets is what security classification is all about.

    if MP’s are getting access to that easily then maybe the classified information is being shared too broadly.

    After all false passports and dual identities for spies exist now.

    I agree with Lizzie some of the Nationals MP;s with no dual citizen issues sucking up to foreign corporations are more of a danger to us than a potential foreign spy.

  23. Fess

    I think we should be doing both. We should be aiming to explore our universe including having a colony on Mars. However to do that I think we need to be able to manage spaceship Earth as well.

  24. Fr. Bowers has some strange ideas. “Dutton is a Sodomite”. He hates Peter Dutton and likens him to a sodomite, therefore Fr. Bowers must hate homosexual men? Therefore he’s a homophobe.

    But he has the sign, pointed out below, of Jesus having 2 dads and turned out ok?

    I can’t figure that.

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