BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 41
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  1. Breaking: Melbourne finds alternative use for free bikes.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bomb-squad-investigating-car-after-driver-armed-with-knife-drove-wildly-through-cbd-20170929-gyrt4r.html

    Police have arrested a man who was allegedly armed with a knife and driving erratically through Melbourne’s CBD on Saturday morning.

    It is believed members of the public tried to help stop the car by throwing a bike beneath the vehicle just before 8am.

    The Critical Incident Response Team tasered the man, who is in his early 20s, before arresting him.

  4. briefly @ #66 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 9:05 am

    Tammy renounced…Labor candidate and all. But this is not the point.

    It is exactly the point.

    Tammy is an indigenous woman. Her heritage as an Australian has a pedigree of 60,000 years. Yet 44(i) rests on the assumption that because of the operation of laws in another country her loyalty is open to doubt. It’s crazy.

    Not it isn’t. Nor should it make exceptions for cases like Tammy’s. Just because Tammy is indigenous does not make her “special” in having no possible emotional connection to her other citizenship. But she renounced, which is all she had to do.

    Those foreign laws can (and do) change all the time, meaning the reach of 44(i) also changes all the time even though the allegiance and values of persons affected by 44(i) do not change in any relevant way at all.

    Nonsense. “Reasonable steps” at the time is all she needed to take, and she did. Subsequent law changes in other countries was specifically considered by the HC, and effectively dismissed.

    44(i) is absolute rubbish. It purports to be about the allegiance/s of candidates. But it’s not. It’s about law making and bureaucracy in other countries.

    No it isn’t. You can disagree with it all you like, but it has a clearly stated purpose, and it has placed no bar in Tammy’s way, as it should not.

    You are tilting at windmills.

  9. I await today’s effort by the umpires with just a smidge of trepidation… after last year’s most lop-sided free kick count in AFL finals history.

  10. For me the Mars stuff is great. However it does not distract me from the fact that battery project is halfway through completion. Looking good for the summer in South Australia and will be a big kick up the butt to the LNP as NSW and coal powered states have blackouts

  11. [shellbell
    I wonder if there is anything in the requirement to pay a fee to renounce.

    An Australian born citizen legitimately unaware of a foreign law must pay a foreign power to be eligible to be a candidate in his or her own parliament. The intersection of all that wriggle room left by the liberal 92 High Court and these incontrovertible facts is intriguing.

    Indeed, the purpose of these quasi-citizenships has not been explored. My excursion into my previously unknown kiwiness suggests it is all about selling me stuff.]

    Interesting point.

    Couldn’t a similar argument be made against a Government charging fees to comply with a process it requires its own citizens to undertake,

  12. Boerwar
    Tammy should consider herself lucky that Australia has condescended to give her the vote at all.

    She certainly would not have been able to run for Parliament in 1901.

  13. [Boerwar
    I await today’s effort by the umpires with just a smidge of trepidation… after last year’s most lop-sided free kick count in AFL finals history.    ]

    I’m sure they won’t disappoint you. 🙂

  16. KayJay @ #78 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 7:31 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #61 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 9:00 am

    WOW!

    Firefox loads my posts, but only if I post them using Chrome.

    I am using, mostly, desktop computers running Windows 10.

    I most use Firefox without C+ to read post because I like the little green box stating “#x new posts”.

    I also have Chrome with C+ for the use of many benefits for posting replies etc.

    Both Firefox and Chrome work equally well.

    I have Firefox V56.0 64 bit and Chrome Version 61.0.3163.100 (Official Build) (64-bit)

    I also have a samsung Tab s 8.4 running Firefox for android 55.0.2 which which works about as well as can be expected.

    I don’t know whether any of this will be of help.

    😍

    Thanks KJ. It might be something to do with running 32 bit FF. Will try a test post in a minute with the newly installed 64 bit version.

  20. guytaur
    briefly

    I don’t. I want a change of government. We will then get a new constitution with a Republic.

    I’m an active Republican as well. The point of Republican reform is to democratise the Constitution. Repealing 44(i) is also about democratisation. It will be a lot easier to change 44(i) than to abolish the monarchy, but the impulse comes from the same place…..

  21. briefly

    I just reckon we have a line of things to change in the constitution. The biggie is becoming a Republic. Lets put the effort into that and once the Yes comes back work on the detail in the model.

    We are going to have to anyway to address the undemocratic heart of the power of the GG in the constitution.

  25. [guytaur
    briefly

    I just reckon we have a line of things to change in the constitution. The biggie is becoming a Republic. Lets put the effort into that and once the Yes comes back work on the detail in the model.

    We are going to have to anyway to address the undemocratic heart of the power of the GG in the constitution.]

    Any overview position at the the top of a hierarchy is going to be undemocratic to some extent, to do otherwise would make it cumbersome and unworkable.

  26. Big D.

    I am for a Direct election model. I am not as scared of this as some are due to the US model.

    All we have to do is avoid having an elected monarch for four or eight years.

    That just means making sure the President has less power than the parliament.

  29. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-30/man-tasered-arrested-after-driving-eratically-in-melbournecbd/9003708

    Man dressed in black arrested after driving erratically in Melbourne’s CBD
    Updated 11 minutes ago

    A man wearing a motorcycle helmet and dressed in black who was allegedly armed with a knife, was tasered and arrested by police after driving erratically in Melbourne’s CBD on AFL grand final day.

    Police were called to the intersection of Swanston and Flinders Streets, outside Flinders Street Station and Federation Square around 8:00am.

    Police said at this point in time they were treating it as a mental health incident and there are no links to terrorism.

    The man has been taken to hospital to be assessed.

  30. ‘Barney in Go Dau

    [Boerwar
    I await today’s effort by the umpires with just a smidge of trepidation… after last year’s most lop-sided free kick count in AFL finals history.]

    I’m sure they won’t disappoint you. ‘

    LOL.

    I have my grumblegenerator ready for action.

  33. After Rudd was toppled in 2010, Lachlan Harris’ number got reused

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-30/political-staffer-phone-numbers-recycled-for-public-citizens/9002498

    When is recycling not a good thing? When it’s the phone number of a high profile political staffer
    By political reporter Anna Henderson
    Posted about 4 hours ago

    Imagine being an unsuspecting citizen going about your daily business when, in a case of mistaken identity, you end up fielding frantic calls and texts from political journalists, advisers and even a prime minister.

  34. gt

    However Ludlam and Waters shows some sensible smart people being caught out.

    Both knew they were born in other countries … they ticked and got elected.

  36. Player One @ #104 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 10:01 am

    briefly @ #66 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 9:05 am

    Tammy renounced…Labor candidate and all. But this is not the point.

    It is exactly the point.

    Tammy is an indigenous woman. Her heritage as an Australian has a pedigree of 60,000 years. Yet 44(i) rests on the assumption that because of the operation of laws in another country her loyalty is open to doubt. It’s crazy.

    Not it isn’t. Nor should it make exceptions for cases like Tammy’s. Just because Tammy is indigenous does not make her “special” in having no possible emotional connection to her other citizenship. But she renounced, which is all she had to do.

    Those foreign laws can (and do) change all the time, meaning the reach of 44(i) also changes all the time even though the allegiance and values of persons affected by 44(i) do not change in any relevant way at all.

    Nonsense. “Reasonable steps” at the time is all she needed to take, and she did. Subsequent law changes in other countries was specifically considered by the HC, and effectively dismissed.

    44(i) is absolute rubbish. It purports to be about the allegiance/s of candidates. But it’s not. It’s about law making and bureaucracy in other countries.

    No it isn’t. You can disagree with it all you like, but it has a clearly stated purpose, and it has placed no bar in Tammy’s way, as it should not.

    You are tilting at windmills.

    It is rather unnerving to find myself agreeing with P1.
    On this topic, Briefly has completely left the reservation.

  38. CT

    Yes. However still caught out. Resigned. No argument.

    Thats as it should be according to the law now.

    However talking changing the law is a different thing. The two are not actually related.

    Much as the government of today is trying to make out it is as a red herring to cover their incompetence.

  40. Dan Gulberry @ #139 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 10:36 am

    bemused @ #124 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 8:24 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #61 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 9:00 am

    WOW!

    Firefox loads my posts, but only if I post them using Chrome.

    I have been grappling with the same problem. Posting this on Chrome so will see what happens.

    Was working fine until FF did an update. Can’t blame the gerbils for this one.

    Yep! Exactly the same for me.

  43. gt

    The difference between people who want to become politicians from an early age because they want to have a say and influence voters to their views over the whole gamut of government versus those who become politicians because of a particular issue or a limited number of issues is interesting.

    It seems that those like Abbott and Shorten start out but taking care of career business requirements while the others rush in.

  45. Well, well, well. It seems as though, contrary to he who doth protesteth too much about Labor’s culpability as far as the ‘domesticgas crisis’ goes, the truth is it is the Lying Rodent who let the dogs out of the yard to run rampant. Thank goodness for the long memory of Paul Bongiorno:

    Australia has plentiful gas, but exports most of it, leaving a domestic shortfall that pushes up prices well beyond global market prices. If we want to get into the blame game, it could go all the way back to the days of the Howard government in 1997, when export controls on gas were lifted. Howard did this to facilitate long-term gas contracts to China. It was hailed at the time, but is not looking so wonderful now.

  46. ct

    yes. I actually think the career politicians have a lot going for them. They get to understand the art of politics in a professional way. Just as we have professional race drivers with experience.

    However its cute at the moment to blame that experience as “elites” and out of touch. However Labor over the years and the Greens to a lesser extent recently have proved that career politicians are a good thing.

    In a party you can have a mix of the two for some balance of course.

    However we are assailed by the right day in day out that professional politicians are evil. I think this is because they listen to their constituents.

    The right can’t have that. Listening to the people is not good for corporate interests.

  48. Just doing some rough calculations on the SSM postal survey. Assuming that chance of anyone who intends to vote will do so on any particular day being 20%, I get that about 85% of those who will vote have already done so.

    Was looking around for some polling data on the estimates % who have voted to calibrate this. Do any of the SSM polls shows this?

  50. Well, I would say most people know the meaning of sodomy as anal intercourse. It’s probably in all the dictionaries. A deeper biblical meaning would be very obscure.

    I don’t think Fr. Bower would be that naive to not know that. I’m a little suspicious that he uses the word sodomite in the context of hating someone.

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