BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Work To Rule @ #148 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 10:52 am

    Just doing some rough calculations on the SSM postal survey. Assuming that chance of anyone who intends to vote will do so on any particular day being 20%, I get that about 85% of those who will vote have already done so.

    Was looking around for some polling data on the estimates % who have voted to calibrate this. Do any of the SSM polls shows this?

    Just wait till Tuesday. You’ll get some real numbers from the ABS.


  2. Was working fine until FF did an update. Can’t blame the gerbils for this one.

    Not so sure; there are errors in the java code; all that may have changed is the handling of the errors.

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    An unbalanced tree was written using document.write() causing data from the network to be reparsed. For more information https://developer.mozilla.org/en/Optimizing_Your_Pages_for_Speculative_Parsing container.html:15
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  3. FWIW, ‘The Australian’ is now sotto voce to silent in tone on Brexit after a bout of heady immediate post Brexit vote delerium in which Sheridan proclaimed May to be a ‘Lioness’.

    Like, miaow.

    ‘The Australian’ still spends some time polishing Trump, but is finding it heavy weather.

  4. PrettyOne

    Fr Bower is explicit in pointing out the mistake He posted the quote. Can’t do anymore than that.

    Any misunderstanding after that is the of the reader.

  5. Of course Father Bower knows the correct and colloquial context of the word ‘sodomite’, and he has freely played around with the two for dramatic effect.

  6. There their and they’re
    Pretty one you have to be a little careful when reading your English.
    Your miss reading says more about you than the sign.

  7. And the LINO head of M’arn Ferguson makes an unwelcome appearance as well:

    Neither Shorten nor Butler were responsible for energy or resources in the Gillard government. Martin Ferguson was. His good mate across the aisle, Ian Macfarlane, Howard’s resources minister and now Queensland Resources Council chief executive, says they were both aware of the long-term threat to domestic gas supplies at the time. But if they were, there was no appetite for government intervention. LNG exports from the giant hub built at Gladstone in Queensland were like a sacred cow.

    In the run-up to last year’s election, Turnbull and his energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, were still worshipping at the same altar. Frydenberg attacked Labor’s policy for a domestic gas reservation as a threat to exports. He called on the Labor Party to “reconsider its attack on the successful policies that have attracted over $400 billion in investment into Australia’s resources and energy industry, which has helped make Australia the largest exporter of LNG in the world by 2019-20”.

    What a difference a year, and very ugly internal politics over energy policy, makes.

  8. C@ – The JWH gas story a bit like ‘Charlie Court’ being viewed as ‘far seeing’ in putting in ‘gas reserves’ in WA.

    He didn’t … Guaranteeing that WA would buy an amount of it was the only way he could help get the financing for the N-W Shelf gas exploration.

  9. prettyone:

    This is what the Gosford anglican church put on their facebook page:

    Anglican Parish of Gosford is with Jason Atterton and Sam Crozier.
    September 28 at 5:49pm ·
    “This was the guilt of your sister Sodom: she and her daughters had pride, excess of food, and prosperous ease, but did not aid the poor and needy.“ Ezekiel 16:49
    The sin of Sodom is greatly misunderstood by those who usually choose to do so, it has nothing to do with homosexuality, it is all about hospitality, or more to the point lack there of, and particularly about the condition of the heart that leads to inhospitable behaviour.
    Peter Dutton’s comments today are an astonishingly vivid example of this most grievous of sins. The lies, misinformation and blatant untruths are worthy of noting less than condemnation and ridicule.
    “They’re economic refugees, they got on a boat, paid a people smuggler a lot of money, and somebody once said to me that we’ve got the world’s biggest collection of Armani jeans and handbags up on Nauru waiting for people to collect it when they depart,” Dutton told 2GB radio. https://www.theguardian.com/…/peter-dutton-lets-fly-at-arma…
    Dutton claimed many of those who ended up in the island camps had not come from war-ravaged areas but were instead seeking economic advantage. They had received “an enormous amount of support” from Australian taxpayers for a long time.
    Yes Mr Dutton we have spent billions of taxpayer dollars incarceration innocent people where they have been raped, beaten, tortured and murdered. You seem to think they should somehow be grateful to us. This is the psyche of the sociopath and abuser.
    Could the Minister for Immigration be so willfully ignorant that he is unaware that many refugees, especially Iranians are from the middle class? These are the people most at risk of persecution in an oppressive regime. Such regimes cannot allow the educated populace any freedom at all lest they begin to make trouble. Yes they can afford to pay people smugglers; yes they have mobile phones and even Armani sunglasses, everyone with a modicum of understanding knows that this is more likely to support their refugee claims than to diminish them.
    Unless, of course, you are a sodomite; someone who has no compassion, no capacity to love the stranger, the persecuted, the outcast or the homeless.
    The biblical judgment on the Sodomites was of biblical proportions. This is because such a society cannot, in the long term survive. Because of its lack of compassion it will eventually turn in on itself and be destroyed from within.
    I do truly hope Peter Dutton is not representative of the average Australian, if he is we are all doomed.
    Because Dutton is a true Sodomite.
    Fr Rod.

  10. Player One
    briefly @ #115 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    44(i) is undemocratic and archaic.

    Why?

    The general proposition is that in a democracy the legislature will be drawn from the body of those eligible to vote. In our case, to be eligible to vote a person needs only to be a citizen. The Constitution and the Electoral Act establish this. The Act specifies that to be eligible to stand for an election a person is required to be eligible to enrol to vote and to be a Citizen. This is the correct standard. It applies in every democracy. The legislature will be comprised of eligible voters.

    s44(i) establishes a disqualification that is based on a completely archaic assumption about allegiance. In 1901, British Subjects – whether they were “Australian” or not – could stand for election. The presumption was that unless you were British you were of dubious tenor. The same kind of xenophobic, racist thread remains. A feudal understanding of the nature of “Subject” status remains in the Constitution.

    This is just totally anachronistic in an era when extra-citizenship is determined not by the actions of the person affected but by the laws passed in other countries – laws that are frequently changed and which in no way bear on the identity and loyalty of affected Australians. It’s quite possible for an Australian to not be a dual citizen one day, to become eligible the next and then later to lose that eligibility without doing anything. This makes a nonsense of the Section.

    In my own case, I am eligible to become a citizen of at least two other countries. My children are eligible to become citizens of at least three other countries. My family is not unusual. This is a commonplace in Australia. The proposition that my family and the millions like us are in some way compromised by this is an absurdity. It is a relic of a 19th-century, neo-Feudal and colonialist set of ideas about “subjects” and their presumed allegiance.

    As long as it is possible for Australian citizens to simultaneously hold multiple citizenships they should not be disqualified from seeking election. The standard should be the same for electors as well as the elected. That is the essence of democracy.

  11. Professional politicians can be a bad thing because the connections with stakeholders required to be a professional politician are to a first approximation indistinguishable from corruption. See also: The vast number of politicians who retire and within 3 years are employed by someone they were an advocate on behalf of (or in the case of the blatantly corrupt while still in parliament).

    A better politician as in someone better at politics is not the same thing as a better person as a politician.

    I don’t think all professional politicians are bad or anything but I look with a skeptical eye on the backlash to Trump being treating institutions (that the public should remain skeptical of in order to retain a democratic society) with slaverish regard.

  12. guytaur @ #82 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 9:37 am

    The two month being faster than a kitchen renovation is being highlighted in their stories. Not good for Turnbull’s Snowy 2.0 comparison.

    Guytaur,

    I have no skin in the game either way but:

    SA Tesla battery capacity 100 MW and 120 MWh (megawatt hours), recharge time I don’t know, battery life 10 to 12 years
    Versus
    Snowy 2.0 proposed capacity 2000 MW and 12,000 MWh if run for 6 hours, re-pump time 6 hours if sufficient power is available, mechanical equipment life 80 years with the maintainable components replaced (big pumps and turbines typically have a long life if properly maintained)

    Who knows what is better, we will wait and see. LU and others could probably comment on the contribution each will/would make to the network’s stability.

  13. To settle the Father Bower thing, yes he referred to the original definition. He even posted Chapter and Verse on his twitter shortly afterwards.

    Also the idea he’d do it out of hatred for homosexuals is nuts considering he’s been a consistent and loud public advocate for SSM since this stupid survey was decided on.

  14. “How did the Sodomites succeed in penetrating our lexical consciousness far deeper than did the Gommorhanites?”

    I think the question answers itself- easier to pronounce. Also, Lot stayed in Sodom, not the other place.

  15. E

    As always moderation is a key avoid extremism. Hanson is a big real people narrative person. So was Trump. However its part of the con job.

    Notable that Murcodh crony Newscoop outlets parrot it all the time.

    This while ignoring that being in union is actually direct contact with people.

    The corruption issue is a different problem. To treat that you need to let the sunshine in with real time donation laws a real watchdog and laws preventing rapid farmoutz to jobs as a reward after leaving public service.

  16. I love Elon Musk but…..

    His obsession with colonising Mars scares me. Actuallty its not just his obsession. There are many Mars enthusiasts that seem to think we humans should infect another planet precisely becsuse we can’t be trusted with this one.

    The number one reason why we might go extinct is not an asteroid. Its our culture. We aren’t civilised. If we become a ‘multi-planetary-species’ what’s the odds we’ll get to cause our own extinction on two planets, not just one. Pretty good.

    Say that on a Mars enthusiast forum and you’ll get lynched.

    Another thing that bugs me about Mars enthusiast culture is its so US centric. Have a look on NASA spaceflight forums and you’ll find conversations on Mars governance that naively and stupidly copy US political practice.

    On a technical note. I think Elon is being wilfully blind about g forces. A suborbital flight means 2.5 gs peak as a minimum and optimally 3 gs for lower fuel consumption. Now I’ve pulled 3 gs and while its fun for 30 seconds or so its not as fun for several minutes.

    Worse, Elon has an architecture that requires aerodynamic drag for a Mars landing. That’s 4 to 6 gs depending on the interplanetary path. You’re asking civilians to do this after they’ve spent several months in zero g losing bone and muscle mass.

    Crazy.

  17. John Kelly draws a line in the sand — demands Trump choose between him and Kushner

    White House chief of staff John Kelly is reportedly considering modifying the role of President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

    Politico reports Kelly was “livid” after learning that Kushner had been negotiating behind the then Secretary of Homeland Security’s back with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

    According to three sources, Politico reported Secretary Kelly, “called senior White House officials and demanded a meeting with Trump to deliver something of an ultimatum: If Kushner was going to freelance on DHS issues, the president would have to choose between his son-in-law and the four-star general serving in his Cabinet.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/john-kelly-draws-a-line-in-the-sand-demands-trump-choose-between-him-and-kushner/

  18. Cud:

    I agree. Plus there’s this undercurrent within the colonise Mars mob that are AGW denialists, working from the basis that we don’t need to reduce our GHGEs cause we can just move to another planet when it all goes pear-shaped.

  19. Ex-intelligence czar warns it’s ‘pretty safe bet’ Kushner’s private email has been compromised by foreign spies

    Former counter-intelligence Czar says it is likely that foreign intelligence services have compromised the private email server of White House senior advisor Jared Kushner.

    “Jared is probably one of the top five or 10 targets in the U.S. government because of his access to the president and because of the portfolios he’s been given,” Richard Clarke told Politico.

    “It’s a pretty safe bet that his personal devices have been compromised by foreign intelligence services,” Clarke explained. “And therefore there is some risk that meetings he attends are compromised too.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/ex-intelligence-czar-warns-its-pretty-safe-bet-kushners-private-email-has-been-compromised-by-foreign-spies/

  20. prettyone

    ‘I’m a little suspicious that he uses the word sodomite in the context of hating someone.’

    Sorry, where did he do that?

    Of course the good Father knew the colloquial usage of sodomite, and of course he used it to get people’s attention. Once he had that, he explained his rationale for the use of the word.

    Perfectly legitimate tactic.

  21. briefly

    The general proposition is that in a democracy the legislature will be drawn from the body of those eligible to vote. In our case, to be eligible to vote a person needs only to be a citizen. The Constitution and the Electoral Act establish this. The Act specifies that to be eligible to stand for an election a person is required to be eligible to enrol to vote and to be a Citizen. This is the correct standard. It applies in every democracy. The legislature will be comprised of eligible voters.

    Any citizen can stand for parliament (apart from the reasonable exceptions noted in S44 – criminals, holders of office of profit etc). As your friend Tammy has so ably demonstrated.

    s44(i) establishes a disqualification that is based on a completely archaic assumption about allegiance. In 1901, British Subjects – whether they were “Australian” or not – could stand or election. The presumption was that unless you were British you were of dubious tenor. The same thread remains. A feudal understanding of the nature of “Subject” status remains in the Constitution.

    You claim it to be archaic. But its original intent was clear, and is still relevant even though the precise details of Australian citizenship have changed over the years. This is quite a normal process, and the original phrasing has been interpreted and clarified several times by the HC over the years to keep it up to date. And it would still have the support of most Australians. Hence it is not archaic.

    This is just totally anachronistic in an era when extra-citizenship is determined not by the actions of the person affected but by the laws passed in other countries – laws that are frequently changed and in which no way bear on the identity and loyalty of affected Australians. It’s quite possible for an Australian to not be a dual citizen one day, to become eligible the next and then later to lose that eligibility without doing anything. This makes a nonsense of the Section.

    It is only the laws in place at the time of nomination that count. Subsequent law changes do not.

    In my own case, I am eligible to become a citizen of at least two other countries. My children are eligible to become citizens of at least three other countries. My family is not unusual. This is a commonplace in Australia. The proposition that my family and the millions like us are in some way compromised by this is an absurdity. It is a relic of a 19th-century, neo-Feudal and colonialist set of ideas about “subjects” and their presumed allegiance.

    So? If you (or your children) want to run for parliament, all you have to do is take “reasonable steps” to renounce when you nominate and you will not have a problem. Then or ever, and no matter what other countries subsequently do.

    As long as it is possible for Australian citizens to simultaneously hold multiple citizenships they should not be disqualified from seeking election. The standard should be the same for electors as well as the elected. That is the essence of democracy.

    They are not disqualified, and the standard is the same for everyone. There are other qualifications to be met before being elected, and Australia is by no means onerous in this regard. For example, others have pointed out the very strict rules that apply to being eligible to be elected president of the US – now that may indeed be undemocratic (by your definition) but our rules are not.

  22. “It’s a pretty safe bet that his personal devices have been compromised by foreign intelligence services,” Clarke explained. “And therefore there is some risk that meetings he attends are compromised too.”

    Which is the whole damn point in the first instance wrt these darn ‘private email servers’ that the Americans get all het up about. But that has been lost in the mists of time and divorced from this reality in order to use it as a political tool to beat rivals over the head with until they are politically dead. Eg Hillary Clinton

  23. CTaR1

    ‘Only as long as it’s congenial for a swim and not full of ‘killers’!

    And great beaches without tacky resorts.’

    Right.

    Best only quality red sand, and scratch Club Med, Great Whites, Irukandji, and brown trout from the list of CTaR1 Ocean species.

    Done!

  24. Well, I can see what Fr.Bowers is saying now, but it’s an outside sign for drivers passing by and I reckon your average person would say, what the heck, is he having a go at homosexual men.

    Anyways, the Armani comment by P. Dutton is unneeded and demeaning and kind of not truthful. The boats are stopped and things are under control and that’s what counts. Peter Dutton can say these harsh things because M. Turnbull is very favoured by the media, who will not challenge him about his ministers and what they say and do. They are desperate for M. Turnbull to get that Newspoll up. I don’t think I’ve seen a PM so much liked by the top media people – across the board too, The Australian, Telegraph, Fairfax. He is everywhere now, too, on radio, TV, getting his charm across.

  25. Oh yeah. Musk has realised that he needs shitloads of water mining on Mars to turn into fuel. The problem is that water is there but its pretty diffuse. And everywhere on Mars you do find reasonable quanties of water are either too far from the equator to be usefull for a settlement, or located in idiosynchratic places that cannot be touched because they might also harbour indigenous life.

  26. P1

    Pretty is conflating two seperate issues.

    The Constitutional requirements are the policy. The politicians complying are the process.

    I think we need to look at the policy myself because of how multicultural we are now and thus the prices will need to change as the policy does.

    However under the current system the process as zoomster has been great at pointing out is quite clear.

    PrettyOne is floating a red herring argument to exclude the incompetence of the National party for not doing its homework.

  27. prettyone

    I don’t think I’ve seen a PM so much liked by the top media people – across the board too, The Australian, Telegraph, Fairfax. He is everywhere now, too, on radio, TV, getting his charm across.

    And lying all the time. I feel nauseous.

  28. Boerwar @ #178 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 11:21 am

    I would like to be in charge of terra forming on Mars.

    Such fun!

    You know, all you really need is to get a nice little greenhouse effect going – that will warm up the surface a bit, and also melt the icecaps and permafrosts to get the water you will need. Surely we already have the perfect qualifications and experience for this?

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