BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 41
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  1. prettyone @ #150 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 8:55 am

    Well, I would say most people know the meaning of sodomy as anal intercourse. It’s probably in all the dictionaries. A deeper biblical meaning would be very obscure.

    I don’t think Fr. Bower would be that naive to not know that. I’m a little suspicious that he uses the word sodomite in the context of hating someone.

    I’m sure Fr Bower is a lot more conversant on what is in the Goatherder’s Manual than anyone, including you, posting on here is.

  2. Re eligibility for parliament.

    Why not modify nomination form eg
    Was your mother born in another country Yes/No
    Was your father born in another country Yes/No
    Was your grandmother born in another country Yes/No
    Was your grandfather born in another country Yes/No

    If you answered Yes to ANY of the above questions DO NOT submit this form.
    YOU MUST determine if you are eligible for dual citizenship and take action to renounce it.

    How hard is that. I realise that the first page has a reference to s41 but it is written in typical bureaucratic English. Sadly some people have to have their hands held. If they still stuff up after that then off with their heads.

  4. A lobbying firm run by National Party president Larry Anthony is pushing the interests of energy firms as the Coalition grapples with looming gas shortfalls and bitter infighting over renewable energy policy.

    Santos and Delta Electricity this year joined the client list of SAS Consulting Group, the government relations firm founded and co-owned by its executive director, Mr Anthony.

    “Through our extensive networks we create powerful, purposeful connections for businesses and organisations,” the SAS Group website says.

    The first line of Mr Anthony’s SAS Group biography refers to his presidency of the Nationals, “one half of the ruling Coalition government”.

    (Larry Anthony’s lobbying firm SAS Group rented premises from the Nationals’ fundraising body in 2014)

    A leading expert on lobbying said the party president’s absence from the public register of lobbyists “so undermines the intent of the lobbyist code of conduct as to make it nearly useless”.

    But Mr Anthony, a member of party policy, campaign and fundraising groups, said he was “not directly a lobbyist” and had no conflicts of interest.

    http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/nationals-interest-larry-anthony-the-party-president-who-runs-a-lobbying-firm-20170929-gyr9wx.html

  9. Dem Congressman skewers Trump’s ‘almost criminal’ Puerto Rico response: ‘He should step off the golf course’

    Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) was outright disgusted by the ineptitude with which President Donald Trump is handling the response to the hurricanes in Puerto Rico.

    And if the president actually cared about it, he would step off the golf course, that he is going to be on this weekend, and actually fully put pressure down on FEMA, Department of Homeland Security, as well as DOD to make sure that all the assets are necessary and on the island to stabilize the island

    This is an island that is only two hours away from most of the mainland United States. These are 3.5 million American citizens that we have abandoned. We should be ashamed of ourselves. This is absolutely not acceptable.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/dem-congressman-skewers-trumps-almost-criminal-puerto-rico-response-he-should-step-off-the-golf-course/

  10. S777

    Part of the terra forming operation will include subdivisions for private purchase.

    Naturally the terra forming team will get first dibs.

    I can get y0u in cheap, if you are interested.

  12. This Researcher Thinks There’s a Case For Having a 3-Hour Workday
    We’re listening…

    CHRIS WELLER, BUSINESS INSIDER
    27 SEP 2017

    Over the course of an 8-hour workday, the average employee works for about 3 hours – 2 hours and 53 minutes, to be more precise.

    The rest of the time, according to a 2016 survey of 1,989 UK office workers, people spend on a combination of reading the news, browsing social media, eating food, socialising about non-work topics, taking smoke breaks, and searching for new jobs (presumably, to pick up the same habits in a different office).

    http://www.sciencealert.com/this-researcher-thinks-there-s-a-case-for-having-a-3-hour-workday?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

  14. Aqualung
    Re eligibility for parliament.

    Eligibility for foreign citizenship can arise in lots of ways.

    I’s now possible to be ineligible one day (and not subject to disqualification), eligible the next (and liable to disqualification) and then become ineligible, all by virtue of the operation of foreign laws, the details of which voters may or may not be aware.

    The basic proposition is that the same standard should apply to electors as to the elected. This is the first premise of a democracy.

    In Australia, we have a double standard (actually, we have more than one double standard…). There is a neo-colonialist, neo-imperialist strand in the formulation of 44(i). It’s rubbish. The effect of it is to substitute bureaucratic practice (record making) for democracy. We’re either all in this together or we’re not. S44(i) means we’re not.

  19. While we’re on Mars one of the better movies I watched in recentl years is ‘The Martian’ with Matt Damon starring.

    It sounds ‘boring as’ but is he is surprisingly funny in it.

    Recommended.

  20. Way back in Dubbya’s time, it was thought that if Earth ‘failed’, important people such as the pres and other would fly to a safe haven on the moon.

    Quite apart from the theory, would anyone want Trump to be one of the few saved for the future of the ‘world’???

  21. Don’t disagree Briefly but unless someone can come up with wording for a referendum question where no = yes then I can’t see the constitution being changed. For whatever reason Australians don’t like changing the constitution.
    It’s also expensive. At least if the nomination form questions are based on the HC determinations and the nominee has satisfied the criteria then they should be eligible based on the HC determination at the time of nomination.
    I hope that makes sense.

  23. BW if you want to exclude dual nationals and make people renounce any allegiance to Earth you’re not going to get away with calling it a terra forming team.

  24. briefly @ #165 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 11:06 am

    Player One
    briefly @ #115 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    44(i) is undemocratic and archaic.

    Why?

    The general proposition is that in a democracy the legislature will be drawn from the body of those eligible to vote. In our case, to be eligible to vote a person needs only to be a citizen. The Constitution and the Electoral Act establish this. The Act specifies that to be eligible to stand for an election a person is required to be eligible to enrol to vote and to be a Citizen. This is the correct standard. It applies in every democracy. The legislature will be comprised of eligible voters.

    s44(i) establishes a disqualification that is based on a completely archaic assumption about allegiance. In 1901, British Subjects – whether they were “Australian” or not – could stand or election. The presumption was that unless you were British you were of dubious tenor. The same thread remains. A feudal understanding of the nature of “Subject” status remains in the Constitution.

    This is just totally anachronistic in an era when extra-citizenship is determined not by the actions of the person affected but by the laws passed in other countries – laws that are frequently changed and in which no way bear on the identity and loyalty of affected Australians. It’s quite possible for an Australian to not be a dual citizen one day, to become eligible the next and then later to lose that eligibility without doing anything. This makes a nonsense of the Section.

    In my own case, I am eligible to become a citizen of at least two other countries. My children are eligible to become citizens of at least three other countries. My family is not unusual. This is a commonplace in Australia. The proposition that my family and the millions like us are in some way compromised by this is an absurdity. It is a relic of a 19th-century, neo-Feudal and colonialist set of ideas about “subjects” and their presumed allegiance.

    As long as it is possible for Australian citizens to simultaneously hold multiple citizenships they
    should not be disqualified from seeking election. The standard should be the same for electors as well as the elected. That is the essence of democracy.

    Briefly,
    Please do us all a favour and at least keep your sophistry brief.
    My scrolling finger is exhausted.

  25. Owing, I claim, to forces beyond my control I switched on my moderately smart TV only to be regaled by an apparition of one Mr. Malcolm B. Turnbull eloquently speaking about AFL for boys and girls.

    Quickly switching the TV to SBS I was fortunate enough to view a delightful young lady speaking in a furrin langwidge – presumably Arabic.

    The young lady was twitching her eyebrows in the approved talking head manner and speaking in interesting manner.

    The fact that I understood not a word did not detract in any way from her performance.

    I commend SBS for providing a rather decent alternative for the discerning TV viewer.

    😍 😜

  30. lizzie @ #220 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 12:11 pm

    Way back in Dubbya’s time, it was thought that if Earth ‘failed’, important people such as the pres and other would fly to a safe haven on the moon.

    Quite apart from the theory, would anyone want Trump to be one of the few saved for the future of the ‘world’???

    Sshh! Global warming is a conspiracy to make Trump decide to emigrate to Mars, along with his family and friends. Elon Musk is in on the plan, and is building a special gold-plated rocket that looks like it will make it, but will instead burnup on re-entry, giving Trump the biggest Golden Shower he’s ever had!

  32. briefly @ #165 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 11:06 am

    This is just totally anachronistic in an era when extra-citizenship is determined not by the actions of the person affected but by the laws passed in other countries

    I find this strange, because citizenship worked basically the same way in the “era” where the Constitution was drafted. Both jus sanguinis and jus soli were known and established concepts at the time.

    I don’t think there’s an argument to be made that the operation of citizenship laws has significantly changed or that the framers didn’t consider the foreign-law aspect and decide it was (more) acceptable (than having dual-nationals in Parliament).

    The main thing that seems to have changed over the past century or so is that people are much, much more mobile. Dual-citizenship is therefore more common, although that fact has fairly little to do with changes in how domestic or foreign citizenship laws actually operate (with minor exception for things like recognizing that women also count for jus sanguinis).

  34. Well….I have been listening to voters, to people who would never aspire to election and who are politically disengaged. Their most common view is that dual citizenship should not disqualify any otherwise eligible person from election.

    I think the provisions we have are very peculiar. They suggest that around half the population have dubious allegiance. This is just wrong.

  36. briefly

    That’s all well and fine.

    But it makes ‘zip’ difference to the requirement for a REFERRENDUM unless you are raising a force for a wholesale revolution instead.

  37. John Howard getting more racist at his old age:

    Josh Taylor @joshgnosis
    ·
    6h
    In a full page ad in The Australian, former PM John Howard tries to link same-sex marriage with 18C while insisting it isn’t a red herring.

  38. briefly @ #234 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 12:38 pm

    I think the provisions we have a very peculiar. They suggest that around half the population have dubious allegiance. This is just wrong.

    I don’t necessarily disagree with that.

    But the Constitution is what it is. The wording of S44(i) is quite clear, and the Greens submission introduces evidence that a more permissive wording was considered and rejected in favor of an outright prohibition on dual-citizens. I don’t think it’s appropriate for the HC to interpret the Constitution as meaning basically the opposite of what it actually says. If change happens, it should be through a referendum.

  41. A R
    briefly @ #234 Saturday, September 30th, 2017 – 12:38 pm

    I think the provisions we have a very peculiar. They suggest that around half the population have dubious allegiance. This is just wrong.

    I don’t necessarily disagree with that.

    But the Constitution is what it is. The wording of S44(i) is quite clear, and the Greens submission introduces evidence that a more permissive wording was considered and rejected in favor of an outright prohibition on dual-citizens. I don’t think it’s appropriate for the HC to interpret the Constitution as meaning basically the opposite of what it actually says. If change happens, it should be through a referendum.

    Yes…the HC will very likely construe the Section as it has been construed before. I understand that. I just think the premise of the Section is wrong. The millions of dual citizens who comprise such a large part of the electorate in this country are not of doubtful tenor. If it’s good enough for them to hold dual nationality and to vote, it should be good enough for them to serve in the Parliament.

  42. lizzie
    C@t

    Since we’re in grammar mode, may I explain something?
    You can either say “he doth mistake” or “he mistaketh”.
    Forgive (smile)

    Immediately!

    Grammar Nazis of the world unite!
    .
    .

    By the way, the emoji cutting off the rest of a post ‘feature’ is still operative in the new system.

  45. lizzie
    A lobbying firm run by National Party president Larry Anthony is pushing the interests of energy firms as the Coalition grapples with looming gas shortfalls and bitter infighting over renewable energy policy.

    There is some serious money in renewable energy, so why haven’t the companies involved in renewables got lobby groups too?

    Time to stop playing nice.

  49. corybernadi: @danijeljw You’re entitled to your opinion. I celebrate it. But mine is more important and powerful than yours, so… Remember: vote “No”! #auspol

  50. ‘kevjohnno

    BW if you want to exclude dual nationals and make people renounce any allegiance to Earth you’re not going to get away with calling it a terra forming team.’

    Political correctness gone mad. Yet another attempt to silence us Martians.

    We Martians are sticking to the traditional meaning of ‘terra forming’: the union between a man and a planet.

    If you don’t like it you can stay on earth.

Comments are closed.

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