BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 41
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  1. BK:
    “Will this be the end of the “Google trick”?”

    Not entirely. All someone (with paywall access) has to do is take a screenshot of the entire article and host it on an image-hosting site, such as imgur, and then share the link.

  3. Love how enshrined the 2nd amendment is to some Americans, many of whom happily support the undoing of the 1st Amendment (in particular, the Establishment Clause) but I guess that’s not a property right and empowers minorities rather than aids their suppression (except on Twitter.)

  4. Facebook’s Russia-Linked Ads Came in Many Disguises

    The Russians who posed as Americans on Facebook last year tried on quite an array of disguises.

    There was “Defend the 2nd,” a Facebook page for gun-rights supporters, festooned with firearms and tough rhetoric. There was a rainbow-hued page for gay rights activists, “LGBT United.” There was even a Facebook group for animal lovers with memes of adorable puppies that spread across the site with the help of paid ads. In every case, the voices posed as Americans and presumed to speak for like-thinking fellow citizens: anti-immigration zealots, gun-rights advocates, gay rights supporters, African-American activists — and, more incongruously, dog lovers
    Federal investigators and officials at Facebook now believe these groups and their pages were part of a highly coordinated disinformation campaign linked to the Internet Research Agency, a secretive company in St. Petersburg, Russia, known for spreading Kremlin-linked propaganda and fake news across the web.

    While American intelligence agencies concluded in January that a major goal of Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, was to damage Hillary Clinton, the Facebook operation shows the Russian government reached deeply into polarizing political issues on multiple fronts. Russia experts said Mr. Putin hoped to mar the image of American democracy and handicap the United States’ international influence.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/technology/facebook-russia-ads-.html

  5. [Elaugaufein
    The first few amendments are actually simultaneous to federation IIRC, they were added at the time as concessions to reach Federation.    ]

    Not quite.

    Constitution – ratified 21/6/1788 – effective 4/3/1789

    First 10 amendments – ratified 15/12/1791

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #1696 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 1:46 pm

    Actually it was drafted after federation that’s why it’s called an amendment.

    Picky picky. I used the term “at the time of” deliberately. I posted the exact years yesterday. The constitution was controversial in this and several other areas, and even as it was being ratified and adopted by the States various amendments were already under discussion. Although it is called the “second amendment”, the first ten amendments (constituting the Bill of Rights) were all passed simultaneously.

  8. Liberals need to stop pussyfooting around with power. The far right are challenging or consolidating power in every sector, nook, cranny and crevice they can find. From the outrageous stopping of Obama’s Supreme Court nominating to actively challenging Sesame Street episodes. They have been at it for decades.

    When faced with this sort of relentless and ideological force you either fight for these institutions with the same robustness or you lose them, in some cases for good. The absurdity of the delay in Garlands nomination to the Supreme Court should have caused the Democrats to tear Congress down in disgust. No wall should have been left standing in ramming that nomination through.

  9. BiGD
    loved the abc story about tassie campaigners getting creative.

    especially the bit about the bloke not being offended about marriage equality but offended when the tyres were changed to support Collingwood in the AFL final 🙂

  11. Gerbils have discovered time travel, backwards only, it’s Saturday lunchtime. Good chance to get everything done I missed the first time around.

  12. Vogon Poet

    Gerbils have discovered time travel, backwards only, it’s Saturday lunchtime. Good chance to get everything done I missed the first time around.

    ****************************************

    If only we could UNDO the Vegas shooting ……

  18. The Australian (and many others in the Aus media) were going to always declare “a win for Turnbull” or a “Turnbull masterstroke” etc. – regardless of what happens with the survey.

    If the planet split in half, it’d be a win for him, according to those hacks.

  19. Im not sure a waste of 122 million is a master stroke. That or there is no guarantee all the coalition will vote yes. Or that a yes vote is only a maybe consideration and a no vote end of story period. Or that we spread such bile and hatred.

  20. Work To Rule @ #10112 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 1:54 pm

    guytaur @ #1712 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 2:22 pm

    ABS has released ME survey resuts.

    57.5% of registered voters have done so. Thats just over 9 million

    That’s a fair bit lower than the ReachTel poll which said 79% of those polled had voted.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/10/02/poll-shows-marriage-survey-heading-for–yes-.html

    There is an inherent delay in postal movement and ABS processing. The numbers are probably a week behind what people have responded.

  21. guytaur @ #1716 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 2:27 pm

    Work

    Yes interesting comparison. However we don’t know a) who posted after cut off to return by today b) who lied

    Given there is a 20% discrepancy between pollsters figures and the ABS, you’d also be wanting to question the proportion of preferences for one side or the other.

  22. Trumble still wont get any traction in the polls win ,lose or draw on SSM.Its only the MSM that will think so.It has happened so many times before after a so called great victory.

  23. Ides of March @ #1717 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 2:31 pm

    Im not sure a waste of 122 million is a master stroke. That or there is no guarantee all the coalition will vote yes. Or that a yes vote is only a maybe consideration and a no vote end of story period. Or that we spread such bile and hatred.

    Or the possibility the legislation will be spiked with some toxic religious “freedom” clauses to wedge the ALP.

  25. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Coalition don’t allow a vote on SSM, or if MPs (mainly Coalition, I suspect) vote no when their electorate voted yes. It will only make them look even worse, which may not be a bad thing in the long run. Even if SSM becomes a reality under their watch, I don’t think the ‘no’ MPs are going to shut up about it in the near future. It will continue to damage the party.

  27. guytaur @ #1715 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 2:27 pm

    Work

    Yes interesting comparison. However we don’t know a) who posted after cut off to return by today b) who lied

    Probably a bit of column A and a bit of column B

    Even if you adjust the Reachtel poll by taking the missing 20% entirely off the “yes” vote. It still has a near unassailable lead. Evidence suggests the “yes” vote is already home, but after the Abbott, Turnball, Brexit and Trump outcomes it’s hard to feel optimistic.

  28. Mr Newbie @ #1724 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 2:59 pm

    I wouldn’t be surised at all if the Coalition don’t allow a vote on SSM, or if MPs (mainly Coalition, I suspect) voting the opposite of how their electorate voted. It will only make them look even worse, which may not be a bad thing in the long run. Even if SSM becomes a reality under their watch, I don’t think the ‘no’ MPs are going to shut up about it in the near future. It will continue to damage the party.

    What part of non-binding unscientific self-selecting poll made you think that the pollies could not or would not walk away from it if it did not suit their agenda.

  29. This is a tail-end of a thread I was in. My answer at the bottom. Tomas is an USAian.

    Tomas Murphy
    12h ago
    Wouldn’t have been 50,000. Almost can’t be. Earliest known civilization was 5000 years ago.

    Now, I agree. The Aboriginal Australians had an absolutely fascinating culture, largely (as you stated) due to existing in isolation for most of their history. However, you got the age wrong.
    Reply
    · Upvote
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    · Report

    Me
    2h ago
    5,000 years, you will get a big argument from Australian Aboriginal people about that one. They have evidence of their civilisation at going back at least 40, 000 years. Humans have been on Earth for at least 200,000 years and their tools are still being found. Australian Aborigines came over a land bridge from Asia 40,000 to 60,000 years ago before Australia broke away from the Asian continent and drifted towards Antarctica.

    So our Aboriginal people developed without influence from outside this continent, as did the animals, from the time of the breakaway until Western contact in the 1600s to today.

    5,000 years ago is yesterday to the first people of this continent!
    Reply

  30. GG:
    “What part of non-binding unscientific self-selecting poll made you think that the pollies could not or would not walk away from it if it did not suit their agenda.”

    I didn’t say that. You’re applying your own agenda to your interpretation of my post.

    But, if the return rates are as high as predicted from the recent polling, it is far from ‘unscientific’. Sampling upwards of 70% of the population in any voluntary survey, especially one that runs into the millions, is almost unheard of. Perhaps you need a refresher in statistics?

  32. Greensborough Growler @ #3128 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 2:02 pm

    What part of non-binding unscientific self-selecting poll made you think that the pollies could not or would not walk away from it if it did not suit their agenda.

    That much is true enough. The abjectly farcical nature of the postal thingy shouldn’t be forgotten, nor should its origins as a pure delaying tactic.

    The people who foisted it on us don’t care about the result and won’t accept any result no matter how clear and unassailable. Their only interest is in frustrating the implementation of marriage equality, and that’s what they’ll continue to do.

    Everyone should still vote ‘Yes’, but nobody should think that a ‘Yes’ vote will end the fight. That’s likely to drag on until Labor wins an outright majority and passes proper marriage-equality laws.

  34. guytaur:
    “That’s a fair bit lower than the ReachTel poll which said 79% of those polled had voted.”

    Yes, but there is also a delay of several days between when surveys are received and when they are added to the tally. It is still much higher than the 10-15% some were expecting/is typical of this kind of thing.
    GG may need to adjust his ‘36%’ upwards a little, given there is still over a month to go.

  35. @ Mr Newbie – perhaps you need a refresher in statistics.

    Small, unbiased samples are better than large, biased samples.

    Lets say you try to work out where people live in Australia by calling all phone numbers, starting with the lowest, and working your way up by 1 each time.

    If you do landlines only, a 70% sample size would determine that no-one lives in the Western 2/3rds of the country.

    If you do mobiles, you’ll get a good sample at about 0.05%

  36. **Funny how the ABS found us for SSM survey but not the census.**

    Because the SSM postal vote is non-census-ical?

    I know. I will just get me jacket.

  39. Voice Endeavour:
    “Perhaps you need a refresher in statistics.”

    Maybe I do. But even though this isn’t a random survey, the sample is sufficiently large that you can draw a fairly accurate estimate of the true population result from it, with narrow confidence intervals.

    Your phone numbers analogy isn’t a good one. But, even if a whole state were omitted from this survey, it is unlikely that it would skew the result that much. The sample size would still be large, just not *quite* as representative.

  40. Puff,

    Actually Australia is moving north, towards Asia.

    Australia’s isolation from other landmasses (80 million years) is the reason we have such diverse and different flora and fauna.

    And the time of the arrival of Aboriginals seems to correspond to the last major ice event where the seas to the north would have been narrower and shallower which as you say corresponds with the 40-60,000 year estimate.

  41. The data we have says 36% had turned out by 23-24/9 (last Essential) and 77% by 30/09 – 1/10 (yesterday’s Reachtel).

    We now also know that post received as at some time today put the figure on 57.5. Due to the public holiday and weekend, that probably corresponds to mail sent on about 25-26/9.

    So the ABS number is about the mid point of the two surveys in both time and turnout.

    Why are people discussing this as if there’s some contradiction to explain?

  44. dave @3:13. Inevitable. Down time of >20 min after a VF/asystolic arrest in non-freezing conditions doesn’t leave much brainstem function. “When” death occurs isn’t cut and dried either, even when on a cardiac monitor.

    A colleague of mine, when an RMO on overnight in a major hospital in the early 80’s, was asked to certify someone ‘s expected death from an advanced gastric malignacy. He diligently read the notes, did the usual cursory exam, rang the family and did the Death Certificate. Problem was, the bloke didn’t stop breathing, very slowly, for another 12 hours. The Funeral blokes were very pissed. and Chris got the Lazarus award at that year’s mess dinner. He’s now a Professor of Medicine.

    My brother, a forensic pathologist, spent 3 years as a Medical Examiner in New Mexico (he also did most of the Port Arthur PMs – which affected him greatly) and ran in the Medical Examiner’s Triathlon team. They had T shirts which read “You’re not dead until we say so”.

  45. When we connected to the NBN a month or so ago, we cancelled the old Telstra landline number, and now we just have a VOIP number and mobiles. The old Telstra number no longer appears in the online white pages, and neither VOIP number nor the mobile numbers are listed.

    Presumably this will become the norm as people move to NBN over the next few years, and the copper network is shut down? What ramifications is that likely to have on polling?

  46. rhwombat:
    ““When” death occurs isn’t cut and dried either, even when on a cardiac monitor.”

    As an aside, this equally applies to moths. I rescued one I found floating on the water in my toilet a while back that had presumably been there most of the night. Got it outside and it started moving again! I know spiders can survive submerged in water for several hours.

  49. Fargo61 I’m on fttp and I retained my old landline number when we switched. I assumed it was voip. The old hfc and copper were disconnected 18 months ago from memory.

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