BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A bit of a drop for One Nation, but otherwise another stable week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Newspoll and Essential Research both recorded movement to Labor this week, but it hasn’t made any difference to BludgerTrack, on which the only movement worth noting is a half-point drop for One Nation. Labor nonetheless makes two gains on the seat projection, with one apiece in Western Australia and South Australia. Newspoll’s numbers have resulted in movement away from Malcolm Turnbull on both leadership trend measures.

Note that there’s a post below this one for discussion of state by-elections in New South Wales and Victoria, and another one below that on the draft federal redistribution boundaries for Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,034 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  2. Tricot

    Still the same old, same old…………58? murdered in the US

    Meanwhile, on a regular basis, dozens blown up in Iraq/Syria and such places……..barely rating a mention…………When the Anglo/Euro sphere suffers it is really big news………………….

    **************************************************

    Yes – I agree with you, Tricot – THATS the sad part – the unlisted innocent citizen casualties in other parts of the world that ‘accidently’ are victims of a ‘missile misfire’ or mistaken information ….

  3. Barney
    “I wonder how many victims are potential bankrupts as a result?”

    True story: About 15 years ago, when I was living in the US, I was involved a major prang on a US freeway. The car I was in (I wasn’t the driver) T-boned another car at speed at an intersection. I ended up with a broken collarbone and extensive bruising, and I had some difficulty breathing. The ambulance arrived soon, and took me to the nearest hospital. As soon as we arrived I was wheeled in on a gurney by the paramedics (who were brilliant btw). The first person to meet us at the emergency bay was a stern lady with a clipboard who asked me if I had insurance. Luckily I did (through my employer at the time). If I hadn’t, I would have been up for a huge amount of $$$.
    I also wonder how many of the injured survivors of the Las Vegas shooting aren’t covered, and will be sent broke by their emergency care.

  6. It would be an offence to possess “instructional terrorist material” and to make terrorism hoaxes under new laws to be considered by state and federal leaders at a special terrorism-focused Council of Australian Government meeting in Canberra on Thursday.

    The two new offences, outlined in a leaked copy of the meeting’s agenda obtained by Fairfax Media, are among a broad range of counter-terrorism issues that will be examined at the special meeting.

    These include an updated national counter-terrorism plan, “better equipping our agencies to prevent and respond to terrorist incidents”, including through a national facial biometric matching capability, and enhancing the existing national pre-charge detention regime.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leaked-coag-agenda-reveals-turnbull-government-plans-for-new-terrorism-offences-20171003-gyt9ol.html

  7. Those of you in other states might be interested in this. the WA gold mining industry is in full on attack mode over plans to increase the royalty on gold.

    https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/3000-wa-gold-mine-jobs-to-go-if-royalty-lifted-warns-chamber-of-minerals-and-energy-ng-b88617816z

    The chamber of minerals and energy were at the forefront of the attack on Brendan Grylls’ plan to increase the iron ore royalty. Much of their campaigning can be described as stretching the truth and the rest lies

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Mining rules in WA and Labor does not have the numbers in the upper house and there is talk of the measure being blocked there.

    Hopefully Labor can stand firm. If you give a centimetre of ground to the mining lobby they will be back next week asking for a kilometre.

  8. There should be no exemption for the civil celebrants. Only if you are married by a religious celebrant in a church.

    Simple gives equality. Does not infringe religious freedom.

  10. Timothy Simons‏Verified account @timothycsimons · 10h10 hours ago

    When a 64 year old white man kills 58 and wounds 500 in fifteen minutes from 1200 feet with a knife, I will absolutely call for knife control. Until then, you’ve made the world’s shittiest point.

  16. **There should be no exemption… Only if you are married by a religious celebrant in a church**
    Nah. The word ‘marriage’ will now belong to the people and the State. If the churches want to be selective then they should be forced to use a different expression – like ‘religious covenant’ ceremony.

  17. Greensborough Growler @ #1785 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 5:15 pm

    Work To Rule @ #1780 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    Yes, based on the polling data the “no” camp is deep trouble. I wonder if the demographic advantage the no camp was expected to have (i.e. older people being more conservative and more likely to respond). Has been canceled out by gender, education (and possibly income) demographic effects which favor the “yes” camp.

    So, you take the published results of a hokey poll and then extrapolate the answer breakdowns to assert there is a positive for the “yes” side.

    Hmm!

    Nope, speculation at this point. Hence the qualifiers “based on” and “I wonder if”.

  18. [Greensborough Growler
    Australia being repressed by our severe Gun Control Laws.    ]

    You’d definitely need open carry legislation.

  19. guytaur:
    “There should be no exemption for the civil celebrants. Only if you are married by a religious celebrant in a church.”

    If religious celebrants are exempt from marrying same-sex couples, then they should also be exempt from marrying heterosexuals, if they choose to do so. Of course, it’s a dumb idea, but it highlights how stupid these ‘exemptions’ are in the first place.

  20. phoenixRED

    “Accidentally” blowing up wedding parties in Afghanistan and killing scores of people was a depressingly frequent occurrence. The “outrageometer” in the West only ever managed the barest of flickers over such events.

  21. I’m predicting that Paddock didn’t have a serious diagnosible mental illness. He is probably a “wound collector” aka “injustice collector” like most other rampage killers.

  23. Mr Newbie

    I think the churches already have exemptions.

    eg. Catholic Church still able to refuse to marry a divorced person

    Just no exemption for civil ceremonies from what I understand

  24. Diogenes @ #1820 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    I’m predicting that Paddock didn’t have a serious diagnosible mental illness. He is probably a “wound collector” aka “injustice collector” like most other rampage killers.

    his father, from reports, was a psychopath and on the FBI most wanted list.

    Could be a hereditary issue.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/02/us/las-vegas-stephen-paddock-father-fbi-most-wanted/index.html

  26. guytaur and Mr Newbie,

    I would have thought you’d want to be married by a homophobic celebrant as much as I’d want to get married in a church.

    Sorry, if I’m mistaken.

  27. ‘If religious celebrants are exempt from marrying same-sex couples, then they should also be exempt from marrying heterosexuals, if they choose to do so.’

    And often they do. As noted, some religious celebrants won’t marry divorcees. Others require couples to be confirmed. There are numerous cases, for example, of people converting to Judaism in order to marry (Trump’s daughter, I believe, being one example).

  28. GG
    Personality disorders are moderately heritable. His father clearly had an antisocial personality disorder but strangely Paddock probably didn’t given his complete lack of a criminal history and, so far, no-one coming out to say what a arsehole he’s been all his life. Although that might change.

  29. Of course, the Windsor submission is written by Justin Gleeson, sacked by Brandis, and now getting his legal cummapance.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

  30. It will be interesting to see/hear if the name “Paddock” is photo-shopped out of history. The names of most of the ‘terrorist’ killers are soon erased from memory. Off the top of the head, what were the names of the killers in Paris or London or wherever? Timothy McV is ‘remembered’ but the others? Who can name, off the top of the head, any of the 9/11 killers?

  31. Barney
    “I would have thought you’d want to be married by a homophobic celebrant as much as I’d want to get married in a church.”
    That’s also true for me and I did get married in a church. 🙁

  32. boerwar

    I was a regular reader of Asian Times Online and from their reports more than 8 occurrences. One grisly occasion involved the bombing of a funeral for some victims of the wedding party attack. You can imagine how that helped the “hearts and minds” .

  33. Rumours are that Jack Watts may be joining Geelong.

    The refrain ‘Watts is a new pussycat. Whoa Whoa Whoa!” may be on high rotation very soon at your local Karaoke bar!

  35. Diogenes @ #1827 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 6:42 pm

    GG
    Personality disorders are moderately heritable. His father clearly had an antisocial personality disorder but strangely Paddock probably didn’t given his complete lack of a criminal history and, so far, no-one coming out to say what a arsehole he’s been all his life. Although that might change.

    Insanity is hereditary. Yo get it from your kids!

  36. Academic freedom is increasingly under threat on Australian campuses, and widespread speech codes leave universities unprepared to combat the danger.

    The latest threat comes from a new source: Chinese students, on four known occasions this year, have pressured academics to modify material to align with Chinese government foreign policy.

    At the University of Newcastle, a lecturer who listed Hong Kong and Taiwan as separate territories faced social media condemnation and even Chinese consulate pressure.

    This came after an offended student covertly recorded, and uploaded, their censorious demands. “You have to consider all the students’ feelings,” the student says in the widely shared video. “You have to show your respect”.

    The lecturer appropriately responded: “If you feel offended about it, that is your opinion.”

    …
    These issues do not just pertain to international students.

    Last year University of Melbourne lecturer Lauren Rosewarne warned “many students are now far more likely to come to class with their views fully formed before I even open my mouth”.

    She notes, in the context of gender studies, that students interrupt her in lectures and refuse to do assigned readings because of their pre-existing prejudice against the content. Refusing to explore ideas defeats the entire purpose of universities.

    Universities must show international and domestic students alike that they are most welcome to study on our campuses. However, all students must respect fundamental Australian values and appreciate the core feature of a liberal education system which challenges, not coddles, students.

    …
    If universities are to continue calling themselves universities, and not become submissive teaching factories, they must jealously guard free expression against all threats.

    Just for once I agree with an IPA person.
    Matthew Lesh is a research fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-03/australias-universities-are-failing-to-protest-free-speech/9007346

  37. Of course, if you eliminated the civil recognition of religious marriage celebrations, and if religious ceremonies became an “optional extra” to legal (civil) marriage contracts, the various religions could indulge their selective biases towards those who do not believe in their philosophies without causing offence, and let the rest of the population get on with their secular lives.

  38. Barney in Go Dau:
    “guytaur and Mr Newbie,
    I would have thought you’d want to be married by a homophobic celebrant as much as I’d want to get married in a church.”

    I don’t particularly want to get married, period. But it’s more the principle at stake. Do we have a secular government or not? Why is it OK to discriminate against one segment of the community, but not another? Religious doctors and waitresses are not exempt from treating/serving LGBTIQ folk; why should religious celebrants be?

  39. Re Marriage Celebrants: I read some weeks back (here I think) that marriage celebrants could register as ‘religious’ celebrants. I followed the link to the list of celebrants posted here earlier this afternoon and noted that you could find celebrants who do civil ceremonies and that some have their denomination registered. So to me the whole thing about celebrants being “forced” to marry against their conscience is a complete furphy. Celebrants can register as “religious”, which exempts them from some anti discrimination provisions. So Catholic Priests don’t have to solemnise the weddings of divorced people, for example.

    If, on the other hand, a celebrant is registered for civil ceremonies, then they are bound by all the relevant laws. If they don’t want to marry gay people (or Jews, Catholics or Aborigines), they have to get another job. End of story.

    On the other hand, there’s no no to have a category of “religious” cake makers.

  40. Fulvio Sammut

    This is far too simple. The religious, or pseudo religious, have staked their claim on “real marriage” and will never surrender. I wonder when countries which accept the secular ceremony as the primary one brought in the laws.

  42. [Mr Newbie
    Barney in Go Dau:
    “guytaur and Mr Newbie,
    I would have thought you’d want to be married by a homophobic celebrant as much as I’d want to get married in a church.”

    I don’t particularly want to get married, period. But it’s more the principle at stake. Do we have a secular government or not? Why is it OK to discriminate against one segment of the community, but not another? Religious doctors and waitresses are not exempt from treating/serving LGBTIQ folk; why should religious celebrants be?]

    The proposal is only to apply to existing civil celebrants if they are homophobic bigots.

    Any new civil celebrants would come into the profession without this option.

  44. Am I the only person who never seems to have trouble with this site. I use Firefox with C+ on my PC with postings in reverse order, i.e. most recent last. Posts are numbered, date stamped (SA time) and have a block facility should I want to use it. After reaching the last post there is a “Load More” button to update the latest posts. If there are none, I get on with something else and return at a later time and simply press “Load More” and hey presto there are the latest postings. No problems at all.

  45. Mr Newbie

    I agree with you. I think there should be no more exemptions than there are fot interracial couples.

    However thats not happening right now.

  48. “YouGov: L-NP 51 (+1), ALP 49 (-1). Primary: L-NP 34 (-), ALP 33 (-2), GRN 11 (-1), ONP 9 (-).”

    I get ALP 2PP from those numbers as 33 + 9 (GRN) + 4 (ONP) + 6 (someone else) = 52.

    EDIT: In any case, I don’t find an ALP primary vote at its 2013 nadir credible.

  49. enjaybee @ #1844 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2017 – 7:02 pm

    Am I the only person who never seems to have trouble with this site. I use Firefox with C+ on my PC with postings in reverse order, i.e. most recent last. Posts are numbered, date stamped (SA time) and have a block facility should I want to use it. After reaching the last post there is a “Load More” button to update the latest posts. If there are none, I get on with something else and return at a later time and simply press “Load More” and hey presto there are the latest postings. No problems at all.

    My experience is much the same – C+ is brilliant – much kudos to A R. It makes Crikey readable again. When I had to disable it recently (because of a Firefox issue) I was constantly getting posts out of order, missing posts, duplicate posts etc. Made it impossible to follow any discussions.

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