YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  2. Michael Koziol‏Verified account @michaelkoziol · 2h2 hours ago

    Tony Abbott on @2GB873 says Bill Shorten must be stopped because
    he would take down statues of Captain Cook and Governor Phillip #auspol

  3. **It’s a bit hard for the Coalition to run the false equivalence shtick**

    The MSM help out but they prefer to call it ‘balance’.

  5. Bwahahaha…

    … first he is colluding with New Zealand to destroy Australia, then he is conspiring to tear down statues of Cook, and all the while he has been a Secret Kenyan.

    You can’take make this sort of shit up…

    COME ON BILL, JUST TELL US THAT NONE OF THAT COALITION STUFF IS TRUE…

  7. VERY interesting submission by Tony Windsor to the HC on the Baaaa-rnyard matter. All lower house ineligibilities to date under S.44 have been by-elections, but the court could rule otherwise if the facts dictated. Why not a recount?

    “Mr Windsor confirmed to The Leader a submission had been made to the court.

    “A submission has been made on my behalf to the high court in relation to the citizenship issue and the seat of New England,” he said.

    “If the court finds that he (Barnaby Joyce) was a non-citizen or ineligible to be a candidate, our submission would go to the issue of what happens then.

    “One of the options the court could consider is a recount of the eligible candidates. There is probably a number of (options) that they can consider.”

    Mr Windsor said he could not comment any further on the issue and it was before the court.
    ”

    http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/4875402/submission-in-courts-hands-windsor/

  8. C@tmomma @ #491 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:47 pm

    This ‘Bill Shorten has questions to answer’ is just a regurgitation of ‘Julia Gillard has questions to answer’. And look where exhaustively answering their silly questions got her. Nowhere. They just said her answers only created more doubt.

    Bill Shorten was there. He saw it. He is not going to play their game.

    Exactly. He would be stupid to even consider it.

    Fortunately some Labor supporters (?) on PB are not Labor strategists.

  9. [sonar
    Abbott has completely lost it…lol
    All Shorten has to say is that this is ANOTHER Abbott lie.]

    We need to remember that Abbott is in a ‘race to the bottom’ contest with the likes of Bernardi and Hanson. They’re all trying to outdo each other with the most outrageous claims and behaviour.

  13. sprocket_ @ #506 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 6:52 pm

    VERY interesting submission by Tony Windsor to the HC on the Baaaa-rnyard matter. All lower house ineligibilities to date under S.44 have been by-elections, but the court could rule otherwise if the facts dictated. Why not a recount?

    “Mr Windsor confirmed to The Leader a submission had been made to the court.

    “A submission has been made on my behalf to the high court in relation to the citizenship issue and the seat of New England,” he said.

    “If the court finds that he (Barnaby Joyce) was a non-citizen or ineligible to be a candidate, our submission would go to the issue of what happens then.

    “One of the options the court could consider is a recount of the eligible candidates. There is probably a number of (options) that they can consider.”

    Mr Windsor said he could not comment any further on the issue and it was before the court.
    ”

    http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/4875402/submission-in-courts-hands-windsor/

    That solution would, of course, provide a very strong incentive for candidates and parties to ‘get it right’ as, if they don’t, they are out on their ear with no second go at a by-election.

  17. I would want recognition in the constitution for Indigenous Australians first before wanting to tear down statues.
    Maybe in fifty or so years perhaps the nation would be more accepting of it. Not at the moment though.
    If I had to vote on it I would say YES.

  22. Perhaps for the duration of the postal survey all statues of Queen Victoria should be covered to protect them from the nasty subject being discussed.

  24. The intention to elect a moron?

    Well, if that’s what they voted for. I don’t know the legalities but I think a recount would do the voters an injustice. If Barnaby turns out to be ineligible it has to be a by-election otherwise lots of voters will feel (rightly) robbed.

  25. If you want the statue of Cook to stay up? vote NO. If you want the statue of Phillip to stay up? Vote NO. If you want Prince Phillip to get another knighthood, vote for ME!

  27. Steve777 @ #523 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    The intention to elect a moron?

    Well, if that’s what they voted for. I don’t know the legalities but I think a recount would do the voters an injustice. If Barnaby turns out to be ineligible it has to be a by-election otherwise lots of voters will feel (rightly) robbed.

    Are you missing the point of the incentive it provides for candidates and parties to ‘get it right’?
    If they do that, then they don’t have a problem.
    And if they dud those who voted for them, they will pay an additional price.

  28. EDIT: Should statues of Cook and/or Phillip be torn down?
    No. And if any Labor or Green is asked that question, they should answer the same.

  29. When the public are screaming out for political leadership on things that matter to every day Australians like energy prices and affordable housing, we have the Government focussed on internal division regarding same sex marriage, a dubious survey to help inform the government and a High Court process to establish if senior politicians are actually eligible to be sitting in Parliament.

    The attacks on Shorten are just a distraction to the above distractions.

    Shorten is wise to stay above the fray. The public are nauseated by the personal attacks on Bill.

    Helpful Tony Abbott has just invented a new crime of Statuecide. I knew he was crazy. He doesn’t need to keep proving it!

  34. Sadly, Victorian Labor MP Fiona Richardson has passed away from cancer.

    Will mean a by-election in Northcotte, safe Labor but only 6% margin over Greens last time

  35. Steve777

    EDIT: Should statues of Cook and/or Phillip be torn down?
    No. And if any Labor or Green is asked that question, they should answer the same.
    ____________________________________

    It should be noted that the only statue under ‘threat’ – one of Captain Cook in Sydney – is not susceptible to being torn down – only that the description be changed to remove the incorrect claim that Cook ‘discovered’ Australia.

  38. Steve777

    “Cultural Marxism” must be taking the week off.

    Strange, I thought it was the ‘commies” with a proclivity to accuse political opponents of being revisionists ?Matthias is the “Eupen Candidate” ? 🙂

  39. TPOF
    It’s a cracker from Pope.
    About a month ago Fairfax changed their coding they I dived into to find the right jpg file but now I can’t.

  41. Siamesed idiots Andrew Bolt and Rowan Dean are going right off over the “terrible left wing attack” on Trump’s Arizona speech. Of course the ABC was on top of the list.

  43. sprocket_ @ #533 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 7:26 pm

    Sadly, Victorian Labor MP Fiona Richardson has passed away from cancer.

    Will mean a by-election in Northcotte, safe Labor but only 6% margin over Greens last time

    Shit! It’s only in the last couple of days that her illness really became public when she announced she would not contest the next election.
    Terribly sad.

  50. From the Age article on Fiona Richardson’s death:

    “She successfully battled cancer in 2013 ”

    I think she might dispute that.

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