YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  3. Not a real quote.

    Journalist: Prime Minister is true you are a citizen of the Cayman Islands?

    Turnbull: No, that is absolutely false. While the Cayman Islands have plenty of room for my money they don’t have enough for me.

    🙂

  4. PH at the PHON annual conference – sounds a bit miffed that some members don’t appreciate her talented leadership:

    PAULINE Hanson has called for “anyone who can do it better than me, please take over” at One Nation’s annual conference in Brisbane.

    In a fiery call to arms, the party leader said she was “having the time of my life” in politics but she needed others to get behind her.

    “If there is someone who can do it better than me, please take over, because you would have my full support,’’ Senator Hanson told the crowd at the Brisbane Convention Centre, the Courier Mail reported.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/pauline-hanson-says-anyone-who-can-lead-one-nation-better-please-take-over-in-a-fiery-call-to-arms/news-story/ee210ba62c6e9163f34dd2952542d3e6

  5. If 50% of the population is incapable of coping with some very simple paperwork, maybe the government should be more lenient when it comes to Centrelink…

  7. “If there is someone who can do it better than me, please take over, because you would have my full support,’’ Senator Hanson told the crowd at the Brisbane Convention Centre, the Courier Mail reported.

    As if. She’s a control freak.

  9. zoomster

    maybe the government should be more lenient when it comes to Centrelink…

    The individuals that compose this govt are incapable of passing up the chance to hammer powerless people that they consider worth ‘zip’.

    To them it’s offensive that unemployed people even exist and their decided wish is that the unemployed would just ‘f#ck off and die’.

  10. “I’m off to spend a few hours in the real world. Where I expect I will meet quite a few people who intend to vote ‘yes’, a few who intend to vote ‘no’, and also some who intend not to vote at all.”

    P1 seems to be miffed because this blog is basically composed of posters who are politically engaged just to start with.

    And even more so that after a great deal of discussion the majority have come to the conclusion that they will lodge valid votes.

    And even more about bubbles –

    https://youtu.be/HRwUMD8UQK4

  18. One of the issues raised when the Canavan stuff first happened was the question of whether or not he ever received Italian voting papers.

    It appears that he is on the Italian electoral roll, which led to the excuse of his mother having done it without his knowledge or consent when he was 25.

    Now, lots of people called BS on this because, as a 25 year-old, he would have had to sign for himself. Having “mummy” do it for you would not cut the mustard, legally.

    I’m wondering now whether this is why he has changed his story to be about when he was “2 or 3”, so everyone looks over there and not at what happened when he was 25.

    I suspect he’s actually covering HIS MOTHER’S ARSE, rather than his own, because something she did related to this situation could put her in big doo-doo.

  21. Did I hear correctly that some submissions to the HC request that Joyce be available for cross examination?

    If so, I hope the Court indulges this and provides the populace with a bit of sport. 🙂

  24. Canavan can’t really claim that he didn’t know that he was possibly entitled to Italian citizenship before being elected as it has been reported that he and his mother had discussed the matter prior to her applying based on the belief that they were entitled, only to learn after that due to a law change his mother already was an Italian citizen.

    Regardless of which came first it appears he already knew of the possibility.

  26. Presumably Barnaby might be cross-examined about the reasonableness of his position that he had no clue he might be an NZ citizen. Counsel representing Windsor might reasonably wonder why the thought never traversed across the Barnaby mind as to whether his father’s place of birth might not just be relevant here. Also, Windsor’s team would no doubt make full use of the official NZ government web tool which takes about 90 seconds to give a crystal clear answer that Barnaby is indeed a Kiwi.

  27. If (yes, a big if) Malcolm is faced with losing Government through (indirectly) a decision of the High Court, would he call a snap election? If so, what are the advantages and disadvantages? Discuss

  30. @ Tom – Turnbull is a long way from losing government. He’s currently got 75+McGowan +NX says Sharkie will vote confidence + Katter will if he gets his pound of flesh + the speaker. Even if Windsor gets in, Turnbull doesn’t lose control of the house unless he loses 3 more MPs.

  31. Aiden Nx (I don’t recall you posting before, if new Greetings!) / Chinda

    One of the issues raised when the Canavan stuff

    There’s been so many ‘positions’ on Canavan that I’ve got to the point, that even if he had made useful contributions, that he should be discarded just on the huge waste of time and distraction basis.

  32. The HC decisions so far are hardly a ringing endorsement of the Commonwealth position. I wonder if Turnbull is still confident? Consider:

    Request for September hearing : knocked back to October 10-12:
    “However, she [Chief Justice Kiefel] raised concerns whether the matters could be dealt with that quickly, particularly when Deputy Nationals leader Fiona Nash and South Australian senator Nick Xenophon’s cases were awaiting formal referral to the court.”

    So, didn’t delaying Nash’s referral work out well?

    And this on Canavan:
    “They also suggested the highly publicised story he had presented about his mother signing him up for Italian citizenship was “irrelevant”, rather arguing that there had been retrospective changes to Italian laws that had led to the strife.”

    So the dog did eat Canavan’s homework, but he is unable to present the dog, so he will argue that he never really had to do the homework in the first place.

    And last but not least, Tony Windsor has been allowed to join the case.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-24/october-date-set-for-federal-politicians/8838246

  33. alias

    As you suggest for Joyce a translator is a requirement for sure (Sen Hanson might be available but she’d need Ashby to help as well).

    Some medical assistance needed also.

    This fiasco is going to take a lot to sort out and most of the individuals involved just being embroiled in it because of their ‘tick and flick’ attitude.

    ‘Rules are for the plebs’ …

  37. Socrates.. Going by a radio report I heard, the reason the dates were set back until October was that Roberts felt he couldn’t get his paperwork organised in time for a September hearing.

    CTar1.. Yes it’s going to be wonderfully entertaining all round. I’m tempted to book a holiday in Canberra at that time just to have a peek. I wish it would be telecast. Perhaps ABC24 might do so. Plenty of dry argument I suppose – but a government does swing in the wind.

  38. @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    4m
    SkyNews-@ReachTEL poll shows 50% do not believe MPs referred to the High Court should stand down. MORE:

    Lol ppl r stupid

  41. Dodgy poll:

    Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    5m
    #BREAKING : Sky News/ReachTELL poll shows 53% support for random drug testing for people on welfare while 11% are opposed

  42. Notes on the pol.

    That’s +1 to Labor from July 20th,

    Very close on PPM, considering the advantage of incumbency

    The latest poll puts Mr Turnbull ahead of Mr Shorten 51.6 per cent to 48.4 per cent, with the 20 July poll split at 54.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent in the prime minister’s favour.

    It appears to be respondent allocated preferences I believe.

    Primaries are
    33.8 Labor
    31.7 Coalition
    9.2 Greens
    10.1 ON
    Unsure what of the rest is others, undecided etc.

    Assuming 0.83 Greens -> Lab, 0.47 ON, Others, undecided -> Lab

    gives 53.3 to Labor 2PP

  43. Ah geez, a solid majority in favour of banning the burka, and 2/3 support for drug testing welfare recipients. Well at least no-one can accuse Reachtel of finding an overly progressive sample.

  45. grimace @ #944 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 2:03 pm

    P1 is in favour of a boycott, as is their right. Others don’t agree with P1. Various arguments have been made, remade and misrepresented. Complimentary character assessments have been exchanged. The process has been repeated ad nauseam.

    This is an excellent summary. Thank you. The main problem here seems to be that some posters here simply don’t regard as ‘legitimate’ any opinion that disagrees with their own.

  47. I am so sorry this has happened, Victoria. I am so sad and yet angry that one so young should pass away like that. Much the same with Fiona Richardson. As someone said, why should bastards like Trump and Pell get long lives while people who do more good in one year than those creeps do in a whole lifetime get a short measure?

    I am keeping you in my thoughts and email me if you want my phone number for a chat, via William.

    Hugs.

    victoria @ #618 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 8:53 pm

    My brother in law passed away just before weekend, neatly two weeks shy of his 51st birthday. He was diagnosed with a terminal illness barely 8 weeks ago. Hearing about Fiona Richardson has amplified everything for me. Sigh……….

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