Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Marks

    I can stand for the UK parliament by virtue of Irish citizenship. Ive never lived in the UK.

    However my Irish citizenship prevents me from standing for Federal Aus parliament.

  2. briefly – In the last couple of years ‘Boris’ has been a strong ‘pusher of an ‘in’ country list for immigration purposes in the UK consisting of us, Canada and NZ (and maybe a few others) but excluding countries like Nigeria.

    Here in Australia a similar list was appended as a regulation subordinate to the then immigration legislation post WW2. The ‘list’ of ‘acceptable countries’ was simply changed to add / remove ‘fringe’ countries as and when it suited the Govt.

    Change to regulations used to sale through Parliament with no one taking any notice of changes until the Australia Card Act, passed by the Parliament, but with its implementation (start date, I think) dependent on a regulation was stopped dead in its tracks by the tabled regulation being not passed.

  3. Tom the first and best
    The oath/affirmation required to take a seat in the UK Parliament would doubtlessly breach the allegiance, obedience and adherence ban in 44i

    It is a veritable dog’s breakfast,Tom

  4. 44i is clearly an ban on all dual nationals (and multiple nationalities in general, as bans on singular are generally applicable to the plural unless otherwise stated). “or is a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power;” is very hard not to construe as applying to all foreign nationals.

    Anyone who thinks that that is not meant to apply to all nationals of a foreign power is almost certainly both accusing the writers of the constitution of not reading what they were drafting and underestimating the level of xenophobia in the drafting.

  5. CTar1
    briefly – In the last couple of years ‘Boris’ has been a strong ‘pusher of an ‘in’ country list for immigration purposes in the UK consisting of us, Canada and NZ (and maybe a few others) but excluding countries like Nigeria.

    He is a shocker….really, a nostalgist of the worst type….

  6. briefly @ #568 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 10:07 pm

    CTar1
    briefly – In the last couple of years ‘Boris’ has been a strong ‘pusher of an ‘in’ country list for immigration purposes in the UK consisting of us, Canada and NZ (and maybe a few others) but excluding countries like Nigeria.

    He is a shocker….really, a nostalgist of the worst type….

    Given his Turkish ancestor, he might have to chuck himself out.

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