Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. From last night Q&A.
    I would like someone to explain why trusts are valid because they can be used to “protect wealth” are they saying not paying creditors is acceptable when a company folds; or are they saying it is acceptable not to pay capital gains when you die and your children inherit the assets?
    Having been caught out by the former use very unimpressed when I hear the words. Not paying debts is straight out theft from the creditors.
    Not paying capital gains is another loop hole that may or may not need closing; family farm for instance.

  2. When a small business makes a profit avoiding tax is easy; maintain assets (every farmer knows how to maintain a fence so it will not need maintenance for decades) or expend the business; depreciation works. The people they employ don’t have that option.

    Not too impressed with bleating for company tax cuts; I see it as lowering the incentive to reinvest.

  3. Hullo from Londongrad Bludgers.

    I see that QandA is the talk of the towns back home.

    Shame Iview geoblocks it for Aussies overseas.

    Go Bill!

    Up yours Aunty!

  4. A real family farm is owned across generations and boys used to be forced to stay on the farm. Take the case of father dying and 35 year old son who left school at 14 to farm. In the days of death duties chances were farm was sold to pay death duties and son became a labourer or handyman in town.

    If the farm is owned by a trust when dad dies son can continue farming

    CGT is only payable on property or assets bought after September 1985

    Not sure about fairness in case of accountant or dentist buying farm with proceeds from accountancy or dentistry. I suppose it depends on whether farm is lived on by owner or managed on owners behalf

    Lowering company tax achieves nothing other than reducing revenue. If the company is American the company must pay internal revenue the difference between Australian tax rate and the higher American tax rate. Ergo reduce Australian tax take and increase American tax take. Already Australian profits are the highest in 70 years at the cost of wages

    Use of trusts to avoid paying debtors- illegal and nasty

  5. High rates of Bulk billing from the previous thread

    Most practices can bulk bill patients although they usually do not.

    My GP practice says it doesn’t Bulk Bill but I have seen old people being bulk billed and I was bulk billed on my third visit for same complaint in a week. Those actions would mark my GP clinic as a bulk biller in the statistics

  6. billie

    My own view on the FF is; the government can collect the capital gains when the farm leaves the family. The real issue is the 1985 rule. Trusts allow that rule to last longer than it should. Removal of that rule should have happened with the removal of death duties.

  7. Presenters on ABC absolutely sure that Shorten should “produce the documents”.

    I don’t remember the media insisting on anything at all to do with Abbott’s citizenship, and I’m still suspicious that he only did it “just in time”.

  8. The Secret Service Is Broke And Can’t Afford To Pay Agents Because Of Trump’s Vacations

    The Secret Service is out of cash and can’t afford to pay one-third of their agents for hours they’ve already worked, because of Trump and his family’s frequent travel and vacations.

    The President should kick in some money to cover his security or stop going on vacation nearly every weekend.

  9. Lizzie
    Have they said the same thing of all the foreign born or parented coalition MPs?
    If they wish to become journalists, rather than “presenters” at this point should they not be ssking questions about the different vetting processes each party uses?

    It seems pretty clear that the National party prcoess is:
    “So head office tells me you have the numbers to win the preselection? Well done. Here, sign this form….”

  10. The victor, the spoils? Trump eyes Afghanistan’s elusive mineral riches

    U.S. President Donald Trump is eyeing Afghanistan’s mineral wealth to help pay for a 16-year war and reconstruction efforts that have already cost $117 billion. Investors who have studied the country, one of the world’s most dangerous, say that is a pipe dream

    “It’s illusory to think that minerals will save Afghanistan in any foreseeable future,” said one senior Western diplomat in Kabul.

  11. Trump Tries To Prove That Science Is Fake News By Looking Directly At The Eclipse

    In the most Trumpian of all Trump moments, Donald Trump ignored the warnings of scientists and looked directly at the solar eclipse.

    Trump supporters don’t understand why Republicans and Democrats have been questioning the President’s mental state, but when the man who is supposed to be running the country doesn’t even know enough not to look at an eclipse with the naked eye, there is reason to believe that something might seriously be wrong with this President.

  12. PR

    I know I posted that joke by Betty Bowers the other day. I did not think that President Donald Trump would take those jokes doing the round seriously!!

  13. Scientists warned during the lead-up to the eclipse that looking directly at the sun during the phenomenon could result in permanent eye damage, but according to Mann, Trump looked at the sun despite a shouted warning.

    Trump won’t take advice from anyone.

  14. Dodson, a Yawuru man who is based in Broome, said the visit was unremarkable and suggested Abbott would “hear what he wants to hear” when talking to people in Kununurra and Wyndham about their experiences on the card.

    “I haven’t heard him say much on anything since I came to the parliament on anything to do with improving the lives of Aboriginal people in remote communities,” he told Guardian Australia.

    Dodson said he had heard “mixed messages” about the card, which he said was “simply a public whip to make people comply through the draconian measure of controlling their income”.

    “I’m not convinced that it’s the solution to anything,” he said. “It may be a short-term measure that’s an extreme measure, in the same way that you incarcerate people as a short-term measure to get people off the streets. But that doesn’t work.”

  15. The Secret Service has run out of money to pay agents for hours worked because

    1. Number of people to be protected is 42 of which there are 13 globe trotting and holidaying Trumps and 29 others – former presidents

    2. Trumps travel frequently

    3. Secret service budget is far too small. An enquiry after a security breach in 2014 found agents worked excessive hours

  16. Scientist: The eclipse will be just like this…
    People: Wow, you were right.
    Scientist: Now about climate change
    People: Shut up egghead

  17. Silent majority Q&A is geoblocked so the ABC doesn’t embarrass itself on the world stage displaying Tony Jones biased interrupting interview style

  18. Kurt Eichenwald‏Verified account @kurteichenwald · 2h2 hours ago

    We always relied on civilian control of military. Now, allies say we need military control of a reckless president.

  19. “Just because a Liberal makes an accusation doesn’t mean the rest of us have to start searching through the filing cabinets. We haven’t demanded any conservative or anyone else produce their documents,” he said.

    Asked again if he would release documents, he said: “I know what I am, we’ve been through a screening process.”

    He said he wasn’t “buying into” the argument that “any allegation becomes truth until you can disprove it”.

  20. A propos of not much at all.
    Trump is sending the secret service broke because of all his vacations. If this happened here,l I don’t think the politician would get away with it.
    Among numerous examples, a couple stand out:
    – The secret service moving to a van on the sidewalk because of a “lease dispute” at Trump Tower. (i.e. Trump wanted to charge his own protection crew like a wounded bull and they wouldn’t come at it)
    – $35000 on golf cart hire at Mar A Lago in 3 months – sheesh -another example of charging your own security detail like a wounded bull

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Michael Pascoe goes right to the heart of the media ownership issue. Great stuff!
    The ABC is the Turnbull Government’s bargaining chip for right-wing support and implied guarantees to voracious media groupings, writes Ranald Macdonald.,10634
    From Shaun Carney. “Much has been written and said about Foreign Minister Julie Bishop’s side-splitting attempts to condemn Labor leader Bill Shorten as a colluder-in-chief with those pernicious New Zealanders. It was wrongheaded stuff, excruciating to watch. It was befuddling. And it was enthusiastically supported by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is no dill, as well as a bunch of other Cabinet worthies.” Google.
    This would have to be the most pathetic article so far written on the MP citizenship issue.
    Pontificating Paul Kelly at his pontificating best whines about the loss of religious freedom he attaches to the postal survey on SSM. Google.
    Sydney University is going to try a different approach to ATARs.
    A good SMH editorial here that says if we want multiculturalism we need to play down commemoration.
    Duterte is out of control!
    Hopefully the actual results will mirror the result of this Essential poll on the SSM survey.

  22. Section 2 . . .

    David Wroe writes that Afghanistan and defence experts say the new strategy US President Donald Trump will unveil today to stabilise the war-torn country will have little effect unless neighbouring Pakistan can be persuaded to stop giving sanctuary to the Taliban.
    The executives of the world’s largest technology companies will be grilled by a Senate inquiry into corporate tax avoidance on Tuesday, as the government hopes to claw back $4 billion in missing tax revenue Could be worth tuning in via the APH website.
    The Australian Taxation Office has taken the extraordinary step of forcing all of the nation’s top 1000 companies into an onerous annual tax “confessional”, seemingly torpedoing its flagship, ¬decades-long self-assessment prin¬ciple for taxpayers. Fair enough!. Google.
    George Brandis has been exposing some of his colleagues recently. He’s doing well.
    Materials labelling homosexuality a “curse of death” and claiming 92% of children of gay parents suffer abuse have surfaced in two separate incidents of homophobic campaigns against same-sex marriage. It was always going to happen!
    Peter FitzSimons has had more than enough of “the left” being blamed for almost everything.
    What is the government playing at here with an $8m ad campaign bout taxation?
    John Passant writes that Hanson cloaked her xenophobia in the cloth of liberating women, but taking her lead from Trump, her real aim is to unite the forces of fascism and white supremacy and build her electoral and social base.,10633
    Stephen Koukoulas asks why don’t governments deliver policies that are good for the electorate.
    Tax Office staff have struggled with IT problems that struck the agency with slow internet and email, as tech woes continue to hobble it in the peak tax return season.

  23. Section 3 . . .

    Look at who might replace Scott Ludlam in the Senate.
    At last! Some action from the ACCC over the representations made about broadband speeds. But is it enough? I can see a number of holes in their monitoring proposition.
    Rob Burgess tells us that Peter Costello is not even half right on housing.
    Secret service agents are resigning and others might have to go without pay after more than 1,000 agents protecting the Trump family hit salary and overtime caps, the head of the US Secret Service said.
    John Oliver savages Trump.
    Don’t pin your hopes on military generals saving the world from Trump.

  24. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    As usual David Rowe says a lot.

    Great work from Cathy Wilcox.

    Mark David nails Abbott’s motives.

    And he has a good shot at Trump.

    Broelman with Senator X’s problem.

    David Pope thinks the government’s IT prowess could play a part in the citizenship issue.
    Paul Zanetti outside the White House.

    Matt Golding goes to church.

    Golding and Abbott’s influence.

    Great work from Mark Knight on what Trump has unleashed.

    Pat Clement analyses Abbott.
    Sean Leahy and the genesis of Section 44,

  25. guytaur
    That the conservatives are not better economic managers is a statement of the bleeding obvious. They have overseen the biggest migration of capital out of the productive economy since WW2. That is in a global sense. here in Australia it is all of the above plus tens of billions in recent years down the toilet on the NBN, the mining boom, and failed energy policy.

  26. QUEENSLAND’S liquor laws have become an international farce after Crown Prince Frederik of Denmark, the husband of Princess Mary, was turned away from a Brisbane bar.

    The Crown Prince was left stunned when he was told he and his entourage needed ID to enter a pub.

    In an international embarrassment for the Queensland Government, Prince Frederik, 49, and his entourage were barred from entering Jade Buddha bar at the Eagle St Pier just before midnight on Friday.

    The shocked group, who were in Brisbane ahead of the Hamilton Island Race Week yachting regatta, left the venue but returned 15 minutes later.

    The Crown Prince and his entourage were forced to enlist the help of seven Queensland police officers from the “dignitary protection unit’’ to assure the venue manager they had the authority to override the ID requirements.

  27. sprocket

    From September if you have an iPad Pro you will have many features that were only desktop related. That includes a way to get around the right click problem if it is not included. I am not using the beta software so cannot tell yet exactly how it works.

  28. TS

    Yes. Its good that we have it in print though. Should be shared far and wide especially whenever a campaign is being run by Newscorpse to perpetuate the myth.

  29. The Moon only covered 81% of the Sun in Washington DC, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump called the Total Solar Eclipse “fake news”.

  30. BK

    As for the Greens Senator to be I think he has a good point. It may not be politically smart to say it but a lot of us have noted the common theme from the right in the demonisation of minorities. Not just Abbott’s mob though. As we have seen form Fox News Murdoch media is willing to have alt right speech on their platform.

  31. Paul_Karp: Turnbull: I deplore disrespectful language, whether it is directed at young gay ppl, or religious ppl, or ppl of different religions #auspol

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