Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Paul_Karp: Turnbull: [drug testing welfare recipients] “is all abt love – if you have loved one on drugs you want them desperately to get off” #auspol

  4. senthorun: How gracious of you, @TurnbullMalcolm. Except, you know, for the bit where you’re making people vote on whether LGBTI folk deserve equality. twitter.com/paul_karp/stat…

  7. BevanShields: Malcolm Turnbull’s advice to young LGBTI Australians feeling unhappy or uncertain about the postal vote debate: ‘Believe in yourself’

  9. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    In the same vein as Shaun Carney this morning, speculating that a government in panic mode is making some really dumb tactical decisions, like The Great Kiwi-Shorten Conspiracy line, we have Paul Bongiorno echoing that thought with more evidence and relating the government corridors scuttlebut that Turnbull is considering an election by Christmas!

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/21/rattled-government-calculated-high-court-risk/

    Sending the country to an election to tidy up a mess you have created is not the same as sending the butler out to get a new pair of underpants for you!

  10. lizzie

    Turnbull is revealing in this interview his lack of respect for gay people.

    Paul_Karp: Turnbull says the proportion of Australians who are respectful is “99.999%”. Wow, try holding your same-sex partner’s hand in public #auspol

  11. Did Malcolm Turnbull drop some MDMA before he came to work this morning!?! He certainly sounds like his brain has been flooded with Serotonin.

  16. Given that they are often making life & death decisions; i believe that all politicians should be drug tested each day as they enter parliament.

  18. guytaur @ #60 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 8:04 am

    lizzie

    Turnbull is revealing in this interview his lack of respect for gay people.

    Paul_Karp: Turnbull says the proportion of Australians who are respectful is “99.999%”. Wow, try holding your same-sex partner’s hand in public #auspol

    Well, the other .001% are intolerant bigots with lots of money to pay for disgusting posters!

  19. billie @ #6 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:41 am

    High rates of Bulk billing from the previous thread

    Most practices can bulk bill patients although they usually do not.

    My GP practice says it doesn’t Bulk Bill but I have seen old people being bulk billed and I was bulk billed on my third visit for same complaint in a week. Those actions would mark my GP clinic as a bulk biller in the statistics

    All of the practices in my suburb bulk bill. Unfortunately, they operate on the corporate model where the doctors are contractors and the practice itself is a shared services type model. The doctors there push you through as fast as is possible and the level of service from them is generally not very good.

    The business model that the practices operate under prevent the doctors from being able to achieve their potential as good doctors. If I have a serious problem I make the effort to go to my childhood doctor who is a 45-minute drive away and a $85 fee.

    Shorten was 100% right when he said that the Medicare freeze only resulted in patients paying greater out of pocket costs.

  21. [silentmajority
    Hullo from Londongrad Bludgers.

    I see that QandA is the talk of the towns back home.

    Shame Iview geoblocks it for Aussies overseas.

    Go Bill!

    Up yours Aunty!]

    I subscribe through the iTunes store with no problems.

  24. On bulk billing, I was under the impression that it was higher in wealthy North Shore/Eastern Suburbs (ie big lib voting areas) compared to Western Sydney. In particulat the seat of North Sydney.

  29. I too avoid GJ coffee shops – i thought it was one of the major owners of Hillsong that had ownership of GJ.
    Maybe it is Hillsong itself; either way i am not supporting them.

  31. Wikipedia says Gloria Jeans is owned by Retail Food Group. A ASX listed company. Also owns Michel’s Patisserie, Brumbys, Crust Pizza

  36. Those lucky enough to listen to ABC radio this morning would have the opportunity to listen to the wonderful Christian Porter, not once but three times, culminating in a foot rub with Sabra Lane.

    They obviously think that they’re on a winner with drug testing for welfare recipients, but even for a craven ABC this is surely overkill.

  37. Aww, cute – government MPs think that the citizenship furore is distracting people from all the wonderful things the government is doing, and once it’s all resolved, we’ll once again realise how terrific they are and it will all be rainbows and sunshine…just like it was eighteen Newspolls ago…

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4870292/people-see-chaos-and-we-wear-it-mps-angry-over-citizenship-fiasco/?cs=7

    The Labor partisan part of me wants them to keep believing this.

    The concerned Australian bit wants them to realise that it’s their policies people object to, and have them at least attempt to fix them.

  39. Adrian

    Be fair. The ABC could be letting Porter hang himself legally. A trial before legislation happens means its illegal?

  42. And you can bet that there’s a big Liberal donor in there supplying the drug testing material and doing the analysis. For a tidy profit and ability to pocket taxpayers’ dollars.

  44. Guytaur the trial won’t start if the legislation isn’t passed. Which makes the overkill publicity on the ABC even more ridiculous.

    Any distraction that you can get I guess.

  46. Adrian

    Thats the story.
    beneltham: Sydney welfare recipients could face random drug tests as early as January abc.net.au/news/2017-08-2… via @ABCNews

  48. My wife and I watched Shorten on Q&A last night and thought his performance was excellent. The benefit of Shorten having done 100+ town halls really came through in how well he handled the unscripted nature of the format, and in his ability to engage with the audience.

    His on the spot decision to do a straw poll around internet access was a masterstroke and highlights a real area of danger for the L/NP – dissatisfaction with the NBN is getting mainstream tracction and is going to hurt them very badly.

  49. IOM

    Nope. Never claimed to be a hipster. In point of fact I don’t own any vinyl anymore. My collection got dumped by well meaning parents when I left at their place between moves.

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