Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 12
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  1. We should commission a research project to compare the functional IQ’s of voters from the various political parties.
    (Divisive – not.)

  7. guytaur @ #96 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 8:42 am

    Adrian

    Thats the story.
    beneltham: Sydney welfare recipients could face random drug tests as early as January abc.net.au/news/2017-08-2… via @ABCNews

    Why. Just why. Patronising and pointless demonising and likely not a penny saved. I can’t see it doing them any favours at the ballot box either.

  8. ABS has just released this about postal surveyhttp://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/ABS+Media+Statements+-+Australian+Marriage+Law+Postal+Survey

  9. This is really where the rubber hits the road. How are people in Sydney on welfare able to afford their rents in the private rental market. I think this will show up the nastiness of “the public whip to shame welfare recipients ” to quote Mick Dodson. You would think these numpties would try to avoid a head on conflict. Be nasty up in Kununurra well away from the public gaze

    https://mobile.twitter.com/smh/status/899764340676591616

  10. IOM

    Ah you pretending to be a LNP hypocrite to get into their mindset? Next you will be railing on about later coffee sippers as you sip your latte 🙂

  13. ItzaDream @ #107 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 8:53 am

    guytaur @ #96 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 8:42 am

    Adrian

    Thats the story.
    beneltham: Sydney welfare recipients could face random drug tests as early as January abc.net.au/news/2017-08-2… via @ABCNews

    Why. Just why. Patronising and pointless demonising and likely not a penny saved. I can’t see it doing them any favours at the ballot box either.

    Yes, Linda Burney and Mark Noffs (on Wendy Harmer’s show) very eloquently detailed the reality behind the propaganda that we heard earlier.
    As Noffs said, if it goes ahead it will turn the area into a drug haven, and it is racially and ethnically based policy.

    Let’s hope that it’s thrown out in the Senate.

  15. ItzaDream

    Why. Just why. Patronising and pointless demonising and likely not a penny saved.

    Why ? Simple, because there are fat government contracts for friends of the Coalition in it.

  16. We should be so lucky that Trump fried his retinas. A loud explosion next is in order. Put the ‘see no’ ‘hear no’ evil into some context. ‘Do no’ not so easy though.

    poroti @ #115 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:00 am

    ItzaDream

    Why. Just why. Patronising and pointless demonising and likely not a penny saved.

    Why ? Simple, because there are fat government contracts for friends of the Coalition in it.

    I know P. Rhetorical . It makes me sick to my stomach.

  17. ItzaDream @ #116 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:02 am

    We should be so lucky that Trump fried his retinas. A loud explosion next is in order. Put the ‘see no’ ‘hear no’ evil into some context. ‘Do no’ not so easy though.

    poroti @ #115 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:00 am

    ItzaDream

    Why. Just why. Patronising and pointless demonising and likely not a penny saved.

    Why ? Simple, because there are fat government contracts for friends of the Coalition in it.

    I know P. Rhetorical . It makes me sick to my stomach.

    Oh god, done it again. Tapping away at some Trump hate speech and then reply to a post and the two get conflated. Apologies.

  18. JoshButler: the base Newstart payment is $535 a fortnight. With 80% of that quarantined on the card, someone will only get $53 available as cash a week

  19. JoshButler: FIFTY THREE DOLLARS. What if you buy food at markets that don’t take the card, or cash-only places? Need cash to pay for school lunch/trips?

  22. What if you buy food at markets that don’t take the card, or cash-only places? Need cash to pay for school lunch/trips?

    How about paying for public transport?

  25. Thanks Guytaur.
    They might as well have just read that media release out on the ABC three times this morning.

    But the trial is dependent on the legislation passing the parliament.

  26. Look, I’m just putting it out there, but why has the Turnbull government chosen the area of Australia with the largest concentration of Muslim people to start their drug testing regime?

    Anyway, I would laugh myself sick if the results from the trial came back recording very low levels of drug use BECAUSE there were so many devout Muslims in the survey pool. : )

  28. Two things.

    What helps jobseekers overcome drug problems is getting a job, not being secreted further into society afraid to apply.

    The most damaging drug in out society is alcohol. Ban alcohol within the Parliament and test all parliamentarians randomly. Fat chance.

  30. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that Bill said last night that many fears from the oppn to equal marriage bods are already covered in legislation. Beat up.

  33. Itzadream

    Not only that. One of the rewards for giving up any addiction is more money for everything else. Restrictions on your choice of spending takes that reward away and makes it harder to rehabilitate.

  34. ItzaDream @ #128 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:25 am

    Two things.

    What helps jobseekers overcome drug problems is getting a job, not being secreted further into society afraid to apply.

    The most damaging drug in out society is alcohol. Ban alcohol within the Parliament and test all parliamentarians randomly. Fat chance.

    Looking at all that contraband tobacco in the photo of Dutts Tuber at the AFP warehouse the other day, I’d have to add Nicotine to the list of dangerous drugs. It kills you faster than a lot of the others. Ice is the worst though, by a country mile.

    However, it is SO debilitating and all-encompassing in the way it takes over your life and your mind, even IF you are diverted to a Treatment facility it has a way of acting like an ear worm to your brain that makes you crave it again.

    From what I have seen and heard, it actually takes about 2 years to fully overcome it’s effects and to get your life back in order. Is the government committing to provide THAT level of support? Has there been a parallel announcement about an increased number of treatment beds and facilities to cope with the expected influx of new patients?

  35. lizzie @ #130 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:28 am

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that Bill said last night that many fears from the oppn to equal marriage bods are already covered in legislation. Beat up.

    Yep. Plus the new Dean Smith legislation, which the government will likely rely upon as a result of a ‘Yes’ vote majority.

  38. C@tmomma

    Thanks.

    I know it’s already been discussed, but could someone confirm that if I write extra words on my ballot paper, as well as voting (such as ‘what a bloody waste of money’), my vote will still count?

  40. C@tmomma @ #134 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:32 am

    Looking at all that contraband tobacco in the photo of Dutts Tuber at the AFP warehouse the other day, I’d have to add Nicotine to the list of dangerous drugs. It kills you faster than a lot of the others. Ice is the worst though, by a country mile.

    However, it is SO debilitating and all-encompassing in the way it takes over your life and your mind, even IF you are diverted to a Treatment facility it has a way of acting like an ear worm to your brain that makes you crave it again.

    From what I have seen and heard, it actually takes about 2 years to fully overcome it’s effects and to get your life back in order. Is the government committing to provide THAT level of support? Has there been a parallel announcement about an increased number of treatment beds and facilities to cope with the expected influx of new patients?

    Agree about tobacco C@t, haven’t we seen it. Lets not forget St Julia getting plain packaging introduced as the Libs in the pay of the drug cartels aka tobacco growers (illegal to grow your own tobacco, hello) railed against it, world leading life saving legislation.

    I was walking the dogs and got chatting to an American woman one day, and the chat goes ‘so where are you from’ , and she says ‘Virginia’, and I go ‘Oh Virginia, I think Blue Grass and Horse and Lots of Money, so tell me about Virginia’, and she says ‘Tobacco honey, tobacco, lots and lots of money’.

  44. I made a comment last night about the word, “entitled” in relation to Section 44(i).

    Several commenters tried to dismiss my comments as wrong but the fact of the matter is that neither I nor they know.

    This is a point in Section 44(i) that the HC has yet to rule on, so there is uncertainty in how they would.

    The HC only rules on cases referred to it, so the Parties, when forming their candidate screening protocols, follow the HC rulings but where there is none they have to decide what they think the HC would say.

    If they have taken the position that entitlement to citizenship by descent does not breech Section 44(i) then we have a potential can of worms if the HC actually rules to the contraire.

    This is not necessarily a problem as referrals are often controlled by the Parties and if they don’t believe it contravenes Section 44(i) they won’t refer it.

    The problem now is that some of the current cases going before the HC are related to gaining citizenship by descent and as such the HC could see fit to also clarify the entitlement issue.

    I make no judgement on how I think they would rule but simply point out that if the HC does say that entitlement to citizenship by descent does breech Section 44(i), then there is the potential that a significant number in our Parliament will be affected by this and it could compromise Parliament’s ability to function.

  45. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/22/pat-dodson-says-cashless-welfare-card-a-public-whip-to-control-indigenous-people?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Tony Abbott defends program, saying it has ‘a lot of potential’ for the welfare system in the rest of Australia

    The card is designed to prevent people from buying drugs or alcohol or gambling, so cash withdrawals are limited to 20% of a person’s fortnightly welfare payment. The remaining 80% can be used like an Eftpos card to buy anything except alcohol or gambling products, provided the vendor takes Eftpos.

    “Some of the ladies that are on the card, they can’t buy things that are on Kununurra trading post because you can’t buy things with the card, you need cash,” Carter said. “If you are paid on a Wednesday by Saturday you have run out of cash.”

    In Kununurra, Carter said, the cash trade in secondhand goods was “very, very valuable”.

    “They haven’t got the money to just walk into the shop and buy what they needs, so most of them buy things at Kununurra trading post, or at the garage sales on the weekend, or at the markets.”

  46. Turnbull is shocked that his postal survey has unleashed the forces of hatred. Who’d have suspected?

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he deplores the hurtful language being used in the same-sex marriage debate, and insists the vast majority of Australians are bringing respectful views to the discussion.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-malcolm-turnbull-says-he-deplores-disrespectful-language-in-debate-20170821-gy19av.html

  49. lizzie @ #130 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 9:28 am

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that Bill said last night that many fears from the oppn to equal marriage bods are already covered in legislation. Beat up.

    Yes indeed!
    Check Equal Opportunity legislation in the various states. It grants exemptions to religious and political bodies etc. for various things like employment.

  50. Rick Wilson is a GOP operative, who doesn’t do hyperbole.

    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
    ·
    Aug 18
    Just wanted to re-up this. You’ll know why in about two weeks.
    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
    Remember, remember,
    The 8th of November,
    ‘Twas Putin, and treason and plot;
    I see no reason
    Why pro-Russian treason
    Should ever be forgot.

    606

    2.7K

    6.2K

    Rick Wilson
    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
    ·
    Aug 18

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