ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. briefly,
    Trump can’t get his spending plans through Congress. The infrastructure program looks about as real as his wall right now.

    And Trump has threatened to shut down the government if he doesn’t get what he wants from Congress. I’m unsure where that could end.

  2. C@tmomma
    briefly,
    Trump can’t get his spending plans through Congress. The infrastructure program looks about as real as his wall right now.

    And Trump has threatened to shut down the government if he doesn’t get what he wants from Congress. I’m unsure where that could end.

    The democrats won’t pass an appropriation for the wall. The Republicans won’t pass appropriations for infrastructure. Some will not pass an increase in the debt ceiling unless there are also spending cuts. Trump does not have the acumen to handle this….so it will likely end in a defeat for Trump…and a stalemate in Congress.

  3. Douglas and Milko

    After 250 Septics were killed in Beirut in the early 80’s there was a car bombing outside a mosque aimed at whoever the “mad mullah” de jour the Americans blamed for the attack was. Heaps died. A quote from a UK intelligence officer in the Time magazine at the time has given me the LOLs ever since. “We knew it was an American operation as everyone but the target was killed”.

  4. briefly,
    ……And the US government not being able to pay it’s bills and pension fund payments. Yep. That sounds like the m.o. of Donald J.Trump.

  5. poroti

    I doubt NZ govt of either stripe have forgotten this.

    So I’d expect NZ won’t be doing the Poms any favours in bi-lateral trade agreements.

  6. briefly:

    I do think there is merit in this idea that the amped up rhetoric from Trump is symptomatic of his administration’s inability to get stuff through Congress. The fight with McConnell and Ryan should be seen in this light too.

  7. confessions
    briefly:

    I do think there is merit in this idea that the amped up rhetoric from Trump is symptomatic of his administration’s inability to get stuff through Congress. The fight with McConnell and Ryan should be seen in this light too.

    It is entirely due to his laziness and incompetence…and his failure to understand how to use power. He has dissipated his opportunities. He is becoming a President in name only…

  8. briefly

    He is becoming a President in name only…

    Being a ‘lame duck’ not even half way into his first term must be some sort of record.

  9. CTar1
    briefly

    He is becoming a President in name only…

    Being a ‘lame duck’ not even half way into his first term must be some sort of record.

    As much as anything, he has discredited himself. The Charlottesville speeches were all his own work. No special investigators, no Russians, no Democratic opponents, no media involved….just Trump getting it all wrong. He has dishonoured himself, his office and his people. They will not forget.

  10. I’m in pain tonight…smashed a finger in machine today…own fault, inattention, clumsiness….swollen….felt quite faint at the time….now I blame Turnbull and Abbott..!!

  11. briefly

    FS…yes moving parts…stainless steel….soft tissue…couldabeenworse….

    …………………………………………………
    Yeah ❗ It coulda been me.

    Be kind to yourself.

  12. I’m sorry about your pain and your injury Briefly, but I thought from your post that Abbott and Turnbull were to blame after you invited then to “spin on this”.

  13. poroti
    CTar1

    As our farm full of doe eyed jerseys were all about butterfat at the time it was a “Yuuuge” event.

    The English dumped their supposedly closest supporters to join the Common Market, breaking their promises in spite of the privileges they enjoyed. They’re doing the same thing all over again. Why anyone might ever trust the English ever again is a mystery to me!

  14. As is always the case, his accent isn’t as noticeable (relative term!) in ‘real life’. Made a few jokes about being more true blue dinkum Aussie than people like Barnaby Joyce.

  15. zoomster
    As is always the case, his accent isn’t as noticeable (relative term!) in ‘real life’.

    He does always sound great to me…very dry humour too.

  16. CTar1,
    That video is great.

    I lecture in physics, which touches on statistics, and so I was pretty appalled by today’s attack at ANU.

    Although, I did think, middle of session, first year, lots of exams, assignments,and then the lecturer talks about the many different chi-squared null hypothesis stats….. I hope the young person who attacked the lecturer, and who has been arrested, is given psychiatric help. To me it seems totally obvious that this a psychiatric issue, not a criminal issue.

    Also, getting back to other ways to express your displeasure with lectures, I went to morning tea 20 years ago when I was a “young” lecturer,and told the “old guys” that the lecture had not gone as well as I had wished. The students were a bit restless or something. The old guys, who has seen a thing or two, said “that is nothing – 15 years ago professor x was lecturing in that theatre when he was flour-bombed”. “You know nothing Jon Snow” , or words to that effect. Just like in the naked cyclist video, apparently someone, probably a student, entered stage right, moving fast, flour-bombed the lecturer, and the exited stage left, probably moving with constant velocity (so acceleration = 0).

    If the front of the lecture theatre is 15 m in extent, and assuming the flour bomb was thrown mid-way through the constant velocity run, (a) how long did it take the runner to traverse the stage, (b) what was the velocity of the flour bomb when it was thrown,and (c) how long after hitting the lecturer did the flour bomb hit the floor? Show all working.

  17. CTar1:
    “Being a ‘lame duck’ not even half way into his first term must be some sort of record.”

    Andrew Johnson – barely six weeks into his term as VP, he took office after Lincoln’s assassination. He found himself profoundly isolated the day he took the Presidential oath of office – he was a War Democrat, but from a Southern State (Tennessee). Which meant that the Republicans (Lincoln’s party) distrusted him, the Radical Republicans despised him, the Copperhead (anti-war) Democrats regarded him as barely less a despot than Lincoln, and most of the War Democrats distrusted him for being from the South.

    Granted, Johnson was an extreme case – but lame ducks have happened sooner than even Trump! 😛

  18. A nice bit of phraseology sensitive to the Indians who were there before Europeans ‘turned up’ –

    At the time of European encounter, Akokisa and Karankawa Indians lived and camped on what became known as Galveston Island. Earlier cultures likely used it as well for seasonal fishing and hunting.

    Jao de la Porta, along with his brother Morin, financed the first settlement by ethnic Europeans on Galveston Island in 1816.”

  19. ‘Pork for my electorate is important’. A Joyce clone –

    Deputy Premier John Barilaro announced on Friday that there will be 100 new public sector jobs in Queanbeyan by December next year.

    “My track record of delivery [in Monaro] isn’t based on what I’ve done in government but what I’ve done on the ground.”

    “First and foremost I am the member for Monaro, I haven’t lost sight of that.”

    “Being deputy premier, being the leader of the party is all second fiddle.”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/nsw-deputy-premier-announces-100-new-public-service-jobs-for-queanbeyan-20170825-gy48z9.html

  20. Now I do not expect anyone here to agree with this article or accept anything in it as the real truth ( I do not myself fully) however I do expect those who want to be taken seriously in the debate about Trump etc to at least read the article and consider what it says.

    After all some of it appears to be based on some good inside sources, although obviously no one can assume their accuracy, but to the extent there are known facts eg Netanyahoo visiting Russia etc and the new Iran/Saudi stuff he is correct. similarly the positive impact of the recent de-escalation in Syria following the trump/Putin meeting and the cut off of CIA sending arms to the rebels are pretty well known..

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47695.htm

    It is in any case an interesting and quite informative piece that might place a little more perspective and context around Trump’s foreign policies.

    One comment that perhaps most will agree with or at least acknowledge as possible, is that Trump’s very naivety and lack of foreign policy knowledge may have worked slightly to advantage as he had no pre-conceived notions.

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