ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Trumble stupidity…

    100 000 new voters likely to be keen to vote him out

    And the stupid reason they have signed up will get knocked off by the HC…

    As will his stupid deputy PM…

    So hey let’s go after Shorten as conspiring with the evil kiwis,

    Or as Stalin’s lovechild,

    Or as a pomgolian.

    Fucking moron.

  2. Sorry if this has already been posted, but 90,00 new voters have joined the electoral cue. Great news for SSM and any other elections coming up……

  3. Hola Bludgers!
    Back from the internet wilderness. Today was nbn switcheroo day. Looking forward to downloading a couple of movies to watch! Maybe I should invite Tony Abbott over? ; )

  4. Thinking about the rush of the enrolments for the fake plebiscite, Labor and the Greens and GetUp could do worse than finance an enrolment drive in the leadup to the next election, in addition to what the AEC will do. Concentrate on youth radio stations (do young people still listen to the radio?), Facebook, that sort of thing. Don’t bother with newspapers or talk radio.

  5. Great article elsewhere on Crikey by Guy Rundle on Chris Ulhmann:

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/08/25/abc-political-editor-chris-uhlmann-has-to-go/

    They all enter the seminary, or think about doing so, attracted by the idea of cosmic battles of Good v Evil. They find that the Christian path is about humbly ministering to the weak and benighted, and renouncing glory. They all go to journalism or politics and betray an attraction to the resolute hard cases, the men of violence who can supply a sense of purpose they lack. It’s the worst reason to be a journalist, the desire to be a simpering, blame-free courtier, trading on reflected glory. (Inevitably, there’s an out-of-context Orwell quote, to bless the act of being a PR agent for a murderous thug.) Well, if Uhlmann wants to sell this farrago on his own time, fine. But what the hell is he doing with the post of ABC political editor? Does Uhlmann have actual say over who is chosen to be on specific news and current affairs shows? Because if he does, it’s a disgrace, and a betrayal of the ABC’s mission. Worse, it’s what a state-run public broadcaster can always fall into being: an arm of the state, with sycophantic staffers seeing their mission as nothing other than PR for the government of the day.

  6. On the Abbott too drunk to vote story I wonder why Abbott decided to talk to Crabb about this?

    Pissed again??

    Costello seems an unlikely drinking ‘mate’!

  7. CTar1
    Also, why now ? That he was pissed as a k’newt at the time was no secret and widely reported. Stretching imagination a bit it could be due to the roll out of drug testing of the peasants by Truffles. Sure Abbott takes a hit but he is a mere humble back bencher and it is the stealer of “precious”, PM Truffles, doing the deed and Tones has provided a perfect example of the hypocrisy of the testing and so makes the move of Truffles look bad. Tones has nothing to lose but Truffles sure has.

  8. poroti:

    I’ve also been wondering why that story resurfaced now, ostensibly with no context. But I reckon there’s definitely plausibility with the drug testing dole recipients thing. I guess this also means Tone’s done with his week in the Kimberley and remote Aboriginal community.

  9. It’s a stretch describing Trump as a ‘fellow Republican’

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump picked a new fight on Thursday with his fellow Republicans, saying congressional leaders could have avoided a “mess” over raising the U.S. debt ceiling if they had taken his advice.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-idUSKCN1B41RT

    Ryan and McConnell are in open defiance of him now.

    Congressional Republicans are well into ‘save your a#se’ mode.

  10. CTar1 @ #615 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 8:57 pm

    It’s a stretch describing Trump as a ‘fellow Republican’

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump picked a new fight on Thursday with his fellow Republicans, saying congressional leaders could have avoided a “mess” over raising the U.S. debt ceiling if they had taken his advice.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-idUSKCN1B41RT

    Ryan and McConnell are in open defiance of him now.

    Congressional Republicans are well into ‘save your a#se’ mode.

    Congressional Repugs waking up to the fact that the USA elected a dangerous madman as President.

  11. poroti

    Crabb just looks like she’s well into a ‘saving Turnbull’ campaign.

    There must be some ‘not yet revealed’ action going on in the Liberals.

    It’s a bizarre happening.

    Maybe another journo will start a “remember Turnbull’s stupidity over Godwin Grech” story as a counter.

  12. Congressional Repugs waking up to the fact that the USA elected a dangerous madman as President.

    Yes I am heartened (although still wary) that some among their ranks are willing to question his mental acuity. Hopefully this is the first step in sowing the seeds of either encouraging him to step down, or impeachment procedures.

  13. What ever happened to the redoubtable Godwin Grech?

    Has he been released from the care facility?

    Has he recovered well enough to join Turnbull’s inner sanctum of advisors?

    Are their any charges still pending, or has he recieved a Governor’s pardon?

    Has he emigrated to Malta using his dual citizenship?

    Wherever he is, greetings, majjal matajjan.

  14. It must be a depressing job going off to Brussels with all these ‘position papers’ just to listen to Barnier just say ‘No. Pay up’.

    “Europa says ‘no’…”

  15. ‘Poor’ Dutton.

    That the PNG Govt would not allow the Aust Govt just waltz off leaving them to deal with our rejected asylum seekers seems to come as a surprise to him.

    ‘Bubble’ mentality or what!

  16. confessions @ #623 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 9:12 pm

    Congressional Repugs waking up to the fact that the USA elected a dangerous madman as President.

    Yes I am heartened (although still wary) that some among their ranks are willing to question his mental acuity. Hopefully this is the first step in sowing the seeds of either encouraging him to step down, or impeachment procedures.

    I think the problem with this hope is that Trump is lining up his people against the Establishment, Democrats AND Republicans. It’s why he is making doubly and triply sure that he doesn’t piss off the KKK, White Supremacists, Nazis and Christian Conservatives. They pack a lot of heat and he, in his lizard brain, probably surmises that he will need them, come the Revolution.

  17. FS

    The Dept of Finance has always been populated by a lot of people who go all out to win arguments with other govt agencies. ‘Winning’ the negotiation is all important rather than sensible outcomes.

    Grech well out there thinking his bit of forging wouldn’t be uncovered.

  18. CTar1,

    And from a position of strength.

    And patience.

    ‘Did we say “Brexit”? We meant “Brexist”, of course – what a silly mistake. Ha ha. *ahem*’

  19. C@tmomma
    confessions @ #623 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 9:12 pm

    I think the problem with this hope is that Trump is lining up his people against the Establishment, Democrats AND Republicans. It’s why he is making doubly and triply sure that he doesn’t piss off the KKK, White Supremacists, Nazis and Christian Conservatives. They pack a lot of heat and he, in his lizard brain, probably surmises that he will need them, come the Revolution.

    His deputy chief of staff has been on the public record in the last day or so threatening insurrection if there are moves against Trump. Incredible to think of.

  20. DTT will find this of interest –

    Trump adviser Roger Stone warns any politician who votes to impeach him would ‘endanger their own life’

    ‘You will have a spasm of violence in this country, an insurrection, like you’ve never seen’

    One of Donald Trump’s closest advisers has warned a bloody civil war would erupt if the US President was impeached.

    Roger Stone predicted “an insurrection like you’ve never seen” if politicians sought to remove the US leader from the White House and claimed any politician who voted to topple him “would be endangering their own life”.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-roger-stone-impeach-vote-endanger-life-congress-house-senate-white-house-russia-meeting-a7911691.html

  21. briefly,
    His deputy chief of staff has been on the public record in the last day or so threatening insurrection if there are moves against Trump. Incredible to think of.

    He will not hand over the keys to the castle willingly.

    At times like this I am always reminded of an article I read back in the Bush 2 years, and which to my mind resonates with Trump’s Infrastructure plans. In it it was outlined how there had been plans made to construct roads from north to south and east to west in America, that would be private roads that the general citizenry would be unable to travel on. They would be strong enough to withstand tanks and trucks travelling on them.

    As per usual with Trump, he just talks in vague generalities about his plans. So he has spoken about, infrastructure and roads, nothing more specific than that. Then he uses those broad brushstrokes as justification for all the moves he makes later on.

    Devious and devilish.

  22. CTar:

    That kind of rhetoric from advisors just strikes me as the last desperate grasps to power of a team which sees the end of their power. And Stone is compromised in the Russian election hacking scandal.

  23. As per usual with Trump, he just talks in vague generalities about his plans.

    He was pretty clear in the campaign that he’d not only build a wall on the Mexican border, but that Mexico would pay for it. Once in office that quickly disintegrated into mealy-mouthed platitudes that Bill Maher exploited brilliantly on Real Time one week.

  24. From Andrew P Street re Tony Abbott:
    And it would be fun to play pretendies if you were a six year old, but there’s something distinctly embarrassing about watching a 59-year-old man play acting at leadership by announcing policies he can’t enact for a prime ministership he can’t achieve.

    Even if its performed at the right wing fantasy camp which is the Institute for Public Affairs, which exists in an alternate universe where it’s perpetually an overcast day in 1961 and there’s a Robert Menzies on every corner.

    Love this last line – reminds me of Stephen King’s 11/22/63, a really well-researched novel about time travel and the assassination of JFK.

  25. 2007 Federal Election, National Results – Primary Votes – %

    Liberal 36.28
    Australian Labor Party 43.38
    The Greens 7.79
    The Nationals 5.49
    ON 0.26
    Other 7.06

    Labor 2PP = 52.7

    This can be compared with current polling from Reachtel, above.

    LNP 34.5
    Labor 36.7
    Greens 10.3
    ON 10.4
    Other 8.1

    Indicated Labor 2PP = 54.5

    The LNP PV appears to have fallen from 41.77 in 2007 to 34.5 currently. This is going to be an insuperable decline.

  26. Roger Stone was being interviewed by a journalist from ‘TMZ’ when he was predicting violent insurrection if Trump was impeached. Probably the NYT or WashPo decided they’d give his ‘thoughts’ a miss.

    US politics has descended in to celebrity entertainment.

    TMZ’s usual front page ‘stories’ run to things like “BILLY RAY CYRUS’ BEST MULLET SHOTS”.

    The current front page –

    http://www.tmz.com/?adid=TMZ_Web_Nav_News

  27. And a comment on the Roger Stone threats if Trump is impeached. My first thought is can’t the CIA take him out with a “heart attack”?

    The I remembered the joke “How do we know that the CIA did not kill JFK as part of an operation? Because he is dead.”

    We certainly live in “interesting times”.

  28. C@

    And Roger Stone has been arrested by the police for threatening the lives of Members of Congress, last I heard.

    It seem like every nut has a fairly alarmist opinion that the want to spread to the populace.

  29. C@tmomma
    briefly,
    His deputy chief of staff has been on the public record in the last day or so threatening insurrection if there are moves against Trump. Incredible to think of.

    He will not hand over the keys to the castle willingly.

    At times like this I am always reminded of an article I read back in the Bush 2 years, and which to my mind resonates with Trump’s Infrastructure plans.

    Trump can’t get his spending plans through Congress. The infrastructure program looks about as real as his wall right now.

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