YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

Comments Page 1 of 20
1 2 20
  1. Trump Is Losing Millions As 16 Charities Have Canceled Events At His Private Club

    Trump’s private Mar-a-Lago could lose as much as 25% of its profits as 16 charities have canceled private events as the fallout from the President’s Charlottesville remarks hits him the wallet.

    Trump is toxic. Charities don’t want to be associated with racism and bigotry. Donald Trump insisted on trying to use the presidency for personal profit, but in this case, his willful conflicts of interest cost him millions of dollars.

  2. Disaster For Trump As His Own Pollster Reveals That Republicans Are Leaving Him

    While trying to point out that it is Congressional Republicans who are losing support by not backing the President, Trump’s own pollster revealed that Republicans are also leaving the president.

    Trump’s net approval has dropped by 12 points as the President dropped six points in approval among Republicans and gained 6 points in disapproval. However, Trump’s numbers are flat out good compared to how Republicans view their Congress. Congressional Republicans lost 14 points in approval and gained 14 points in disapproval for a (-28) net swing.

  3. British spy Christopher Steele has given FBI the names of his sources for Trump dossier: report

    Former MI6 agent Christopher Steele hasn’t yet spoken to congressional investigators about his findings, but he has met with FBI agents to discuss how he had learned about Trump’s alleged activities involving Russia, reported ABC News.

    Steele was hired by the opposition research firm Fusion GPS to look into Trump’s background after wealthy Republicans paid the Washington, D.C.-based business about $1 million, and then later worked for Democrats who sought additional damaging information

  4. President Trump’s list of false and misleading claims tops 1,000

    We have been tracking President Trump’s false or misleading claims for more than seven months. Somewhere around Aug. 4 or Aug. 5, he broke 1,000 claims, and the tally now stands at 1,057. (Our full interactive graphic can be found here.)

    At the president’s current pace, he averages nearly five claims a day. Many are repeats of claims that have been previously debunked.

  5. Murdoch henchman Paul ‘The Ratbag’ Whittaker has cranked up the SmearStralian into turbocharged smear mode today. The targets for the signature Murdoch mud bucket are:

    Unions, CFMEU
    Bill Shorten’s citizenship
    History re-writers
    Victorian councils banning Australia Day
    Yes vote prmoting schools
    Soviet Union providing funding to GetUp!

  6. Thanks for the weighting info WB. We need to think about the kind of PHON voters who would bother to sign up for a polling panel. It appears these people are the PHON cliche we imagine, redneck racist types who would otherwise vote L-NP. The lazy “up yours political correctness” types don’t bother to get on the panel.
    Having seen what happened in WA YouGov should be weighting for the fact that polling underestimated the ALP vote. If federally the L-NP do deals to get 60% of PHON preferences, they (and PHON) will suffer the same way they did in WA.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Wroe unpacks Trump’s speech on Afghanistan strategy and anti-terrorism and what it might mean for Australia.
    Nick O’Malley says that Trump’s trust deficit undermined his speech.
    John Birmingham reckons the postal survey experience might just bring about the end of the “bonkers” Tony Abbott. Let’s hope so!
    This has got the makings of a tele-movie written all over it.
    Channel Ten is struggling to find the right kind of crap to put on.
    Why we should not turn our backs on economists after Brexit and Trump.
    A quarter of Chinese buying property overseas leave their apartments vacant and the majority pay for their purchase with cash, a survey of mainland Chinese customers by investment bank UBS shows. Is something a bit smelly here?
    Liberal party members living in the United Kingdom have declared their official support for the yes campaign in the postal survey on same-sex marriage. The declaration from Australian Liberals Abroad – UK makes it one of the first officially affiliated Coalition party groups to declare its support for change.
    Four of the world’s largest companies have been under investigation by Australian tax authorities, amid new evidence from US executives about how Facebook, Google, Apple and Microsoft are shifting money to offshore tax havens. Eryk Bgshaw tells us what happened at the public hearing yesterday. The ATO chief Chris Jordan has had enough of them.
    Amy Remeikis writes that Senate powerbroker Nick Xenophon has accused Facebook of not acting fast enough to stamp out fake news during a spirited encounter with the social media giant’s Australian representatives.

  8. Section 2 . . .

    A slump in consumer spending is a more immediate threat to the Australian economy than a property crash, experts say.
    The Australian is still banging on about how Shorten is “under pressure” to release his citizenship documentation. Google.
    A flagship parliamentary inquiry into the family law system will not hear testimony from either the chief justices of the Family Court or the Federal Circuit Court, in a move child protection advocates say renders the inquiry pointless. Steph Peatling tells that George Brandis has nobbled it.
    Ross Gittins looks at the cost of basic healthy living and how the dole falls way short.
    Tim Soutphommasane writes a piece on how to respond to the worldwide upswing in racialism.
    The banks and powerful shareholding funds are on a collision course over executive pay changes.
    In the meantime the big four banks will capitulate to pressure over unfair terms in small business contracts. This follows ongoing pressure from ASIC and the ombudsman after banks initially failed to comply with their obligations under the unfair contracts legislation which came into effect last November.
    The King’s School in Sydney demonstrated a “catastrophic failure” in its handling of a child-sexual assault allegation, a submission to a royal commission states.
    The Australian Medical Association acted as exclusive distributor of an Australian-invented pelvic mesh device for women that helped spark a global pelvic mesh scandal after it was sold and registered for use in America in 2001.
    The government has asked the High Court to hear the dual citizenship cases of several current and former MPs on September 13-14, saying there is a “compelling public interest” for the matters to be determined as quickly as possible.

  9. Section 3 . . .

    Barnaby may get off but even if he’s found ineligible under s44, he will likely return, redder than ever in 2018.,10637
    Michael west tells us that while intent on drug testing the social welfare set, the government blithely ignores the taxpayer abuses of Australia’s corporate welfare set. Federal government spending on consultants – accountants, lawyers and other external advice-givers – has exploded. Even since it assumed office in 2013, the government’s payments to the Big Four accounting firms have doubled; and this at a time when 15,000 jobs were being expunged from the public service.
    Village Roadshow has threatened to sue Australians who have illegally downloaded Spider-Man 2, Jurassic World and The Lego Movie. But copyright experts say the company’s threat will likely prove to be an empty one.
    At some point our leaders must realise that rising home prices and over-zealous property gearing are not a sign of economic success, being able to house your population is.
    The Catholic Church’s systemic abuse of children exposes an immovable, secretive and corrupt medieval hierarchy, which defends its own institution at all costs, says Lyn Bender. The church is in denial — unwilling to change and clinging to a medieval structure that has done immeasurable damage.,10638
    Jay Weatherill issues a warning over the inaction on a RET and energy policy.
    Another large battery to store renewable energy — about one-third the size of the state’s Elon Musk-backed project — will be built by end of the summer. Ironically Josh Frydenberg will be in regional South Australia today to announce funding of up to $12 million for the project from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. Google.
    Vodafone is entering the fixed-line market for the first time with a range of NBN products, as the government corrals industry and regulators together to try and improve customer experiences on the national broadband network. This looks quite an interesting development.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that somebody must pay in order to make the NBN stack up. Google.

  10. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Who wants to work in a hot desking office?
    The SMH editorial on the NSW government’s proposal to privatise school cleaning says that if a private contractor can do a better job, it makes little sense for governments to run businesses and services including cleaning and maintenance. However, there needs to be a convincing case for why cleaning services need to be privatised. There are several horror stories from elsewhere to look at.

    David Rowe on Trump’s latest speech.

    David Pope lines up the Catholic archbishop.
    Ron Tandberg suggests something sinister.
    Cathy Wilcox give Abbott a lesson on marriage.

    Lovely work from John Shakespeare.

    Broelman goes to the US for the eclipse.

    Pauls Zanetti and Turnbull uncomfortably occupying the middle ground.

    Matt Golding’s take on the US eclipse.

    Mark Knight with citizenship headlines.

    Sean Leahy and the threats from North Korea.

    Jon Kudelka and another statue removal.

  11. It is also interesting that YouGov struggle to get L-NP voters on their panel. Does that sound like a party on track to win an election?
    I think YouGov should review their panel with the idea that their results are being hijacked by the angry right.

  12. The SmearStralian is pouring resources into a campaign to name and shame everyone associated with GetUp, not the least because Bill Shorten was on their board of directors before entering Parliament.

    The ‘Soviet Union’ links are stretching even the Smear’s ingenuity for fake news.

    “GetUp! national director Paul Oosting and his predecessors have consistently maintained that GetUp! is “fiercely independent”, “sets its own agenda”, and does “not accept funding from political parties”. They have promoted GetUp! as a grassroots advocacy organisation mainly funded by small donors that “aims to build a more progressive Australia”.

    But Getup! does receive a slew of big donations every year from individuals and organisations.

    The decisions on which issues to support are then made by a small Getup! leadership group. Its funding history of larger donations from the CFMEU, Mr Sharkey’s organisation and others also suggests a pattern, in some circumstances, that Getup! is willing to accept funding and authorise spending in its name following requests to earmark money for particular causes.

    Other examples include the $240,000 donation last year from Tony and Maureen Wheeler, founders of Lonely Planet, to help advocacy for asylum-seekers and refugees. Another large donor with similar funding interests is board member Anne Coombs.

    Known also as the “Australia-Soviet Friendship Society”, Mr Sharkey’s group was established in 1938 by feminist Jessie Street, and other Australian admirers of the Soviet way of life, to promote cultural exchanges with Moscow under Josef Stalin. When the Sov­iet Union collapsed in 1991, a fortune amassed by Mr Sharkey’s organisation from acting as a go-between for touring USSR ballet companies and other artists was deposited in a Commonwealth Bank account as a dedicated trust fund. Earnings on interest were then spent on social justice causes identified by the five-member trust.

    Mr Sharkey told The Australian the association only chose “fair dinkum” causes, including indigenous and environmental campaigns and the Hicks campaign. He said the group’s trustees included a serving judge and “every cent is accounted for”.

  13. I see Gallup daily tracking has trump support on 35 again. This is the first time he has fallen below 36 for more than 1 day. His support is not set in concrete and is slowly eroding.

  14. Morning all. On the YouGov poll, I am finding these numbers hard to believe. Why would the 2pp swing 1% to the government after last week? It was a disaster for them, at a national and international level.

  15. Shorten mentioned that something like 400,000 voters have updated their details and/ or enrolled in response to the ME survey.

    Presumably this will have a material impact in the next Federal election.

  16. What I find interesting about The Smearstralian attack on GetUp! is that they can turn on a dime about Russia.

    One minute there is nothing wrong with Trump and his family having business and political relations with some pretty shady Russian hackers, politicians and oligarchs. Not a problem for The Australian apparently.

    Next minute, some people who fund worthy causes and GetUp! in Australia, are vilified as The Australian reaches way back into Russian history to tarnish their name.

    Murder and oppression are the same whenever, and however, they occur, and Paul Whittaker and The Australian should acknowledge that the Russia of today, and Right Wing politicians’ association with it, is every bit as bad as, or worse, than a tangential association with a rotten Russia of times past.

  17. Tasmanian justice system on trial?

    Along with other information detailed in the white paper, Richter believed Hodgman would be forced to consider an independent inquiry.

    Despite years of intense media scrutiny of the case, the contents of the white paper have been a tightly held secret. Richter requested that Hodgman and the others in the room – Tasmania’s acting attorney-general Matthew Groom and the solicitor-general Michael O’Farrell SC – not pass it to the Tasmanian police.


    The police activity in the past month suggests the potential evidence Richter hoped would prompt Hodgman into action has instead been used by Tasmanian detectives to make a series of arrests.

    According to a source working with Richter, rather than being used to outline a case to clear Neill-Fraser, the contents of the white paper has instead been used to demolish it.

  18. The Kingscliff Caravan Park, part-washed into the sea, has been abandoned. Rising sea levels ate the sand. Permanent vans were forced out and major works are underror way to stabilize the remnant.

    Businesses along the affected beach are under severe stress or have gone broke.

    About 10 km to the North tens of millions of dollars are being spent pumping sand onto Gold Coast beaches.

    For about ten kilometers to the south massive amounts of uprooted Marram grass litter the intestinal zone… their dunes gone. Coastal trees and shrubs are falling into the water.

    Strange to report, the MSM is totally silent on this pattern.

  19. From Sky News’s Kieran Gilbert.
    Govt sources tell me there are differing views in Cabinet on whether to refer some Labor MPs to High Court over citizenship.

  20. BK

    differing views in Cabinet on whether to refer some Labor MPs to High Court

    If they have real evidence, easy decision. If not, rumour and scuttlebutt.

  21. Good morning all,

    I am sure labor is ready and willing if Turnbull decides to refer their MP’s to the HC. In fact, I would not be surprised if this is exactly what labor wants Turnbull to do.

    Turnbull has been caught out again on the politics. As Shorten said yesterday ” Put up or shut up “.

    If Turnbull does refer and all labor MP’s are ok then he is looking like a dill especially as his own side is in the shit. If he does not refer then he looks weak and has no argument left.

    Has labor played him again ?


  22. Doyley

    Turnbull got sucked in my those on his own side together with GGrech re utegate. He even made a fool of himself at the mid winter ball when he went on a tangent with Rudd’s Cos.
    Surely once bitten twice shy?

  23. There are Australian Aboriginal memories of volcanic eruptions that occurred several millennia ago, just as there are numerous memories of coastal drowning that must all be older than 7,000 years, the approximate time at which postglacial drowning came to an end.

    Such examples provide a novel way of helping to date natural events in the past and should encourage scientists to treat oral histories and traditions as legitimate sources of scientific information.

  24. Turnbull had written to Shorten offering Him the opportunity to refer MPS from his party to join HC hearing re citizenship. shorten said thanks but no thanks. You would then be very inclined to think that Shorten had ensured that Labor MPS have no outstanding issues.

  25. The High Court is between contractors for tv recording. The old recordings came out a day late, were from behind the bar table so you never saw the faces of the advocates and had a kind of home move circa 1985 feel to them.

  26. BK @ #27 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 6:01 am

    From Sky News’s Kieran Gilbert.
    Govt sources tell me there are differing views in Cabinet on whether to refer some Labor MPs to High Court over citizenship.

    Another example of the appalling judgment that has got the L/NP into this mess. Labor has already said they have a list of 8 suspect L/NP members, and it’s well known that the Labor process is rigorous.

  27. After the Greens’ Scott Ludlum and Larissa Waters resigned over citizenship issues, Barnaby Joyce declared “It’s quite clear under section 44 you can’t be a member of parliament and have dual citizenship. It’s black and white.”

    But today he suggests there are shades of grey. To be clear, while there’s no problem with Joyce asking the High Court to adjudicate, there is also no doubt that the Deputy Prime Minister’s words are no reflection of his actual thoughts. His only principle is that of self-preservation. That’s a real problem for any leader.

    For years Adani has been demanding that its approvals be expedited. Back in April it was claiming that if the Queensland government couldn’t finalise arrangements to provide free coal then the whole project would collapse. Yet now Adani now seems quite content to wait for the High Court, and possibly even a byelection, to sort out which minister will sign-off on its subsidy. Some hurry.

    So what gives? One explanation is that Adani was never really in a hurry and was simply creating fake deadlines to put pressure on inexperienced negotiators like Canavan and Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Given the financial and political cost to the Queensland and federal governments of subsidising Adani it seems to have worked.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  28. I caught up with Shorten on qanda and took particular notice of his response to citizenship.
    Cheekily he is egging on the coalition and their merry followers to push the issue and then suffer the blowback of egg on their own faces

  29. BK

    The gentleman was spot on when he said to Hanson that she was intellectually dishonest.

    Doubt she even understood what that meant. She probably took it as a compliment

  30. ‘Big’ Battery for Yorke Pennisular

    Funded with help from ARENA and announced by Frydenberg.

    Sounds like a just in case cover your ar#e announcement by Frydenberg.

    “Mr Frydenberg welcomed investment in storage but said it was “small compared to the scale of the problem the (state) Government created” and warned the public shouldn’t be tricked into believing it to be a silver bullet.”

    “Josh is here to help”

    And of course it’s just an announcement …

Comments Page 1 of 20
1 2 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *