YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  5. I do not believe that any lower house seat in Australia has ever been sent to a recount following disqualification, and I would not expect the High Court to start now. Rightly, because it is a terrible idea.

  8. Captain James Cook commanded the first known successful expedition by Europeans to the East coast of mainland Australia.

    The country had, of course, been inhabited for several tens of thousands of years before he arrived. Parts of the North and West coast of Australia had been explored by Europeans for nearly two centuries before Cook. Navigators from Indonesia and the Pacific Islands and possibly further afield in Asia (including China) had almost certainly seen and landed on Australia’s shores before then. The local inhabitants probably ‘persuaded’ them to leave.

  12. DTT

    Even though you hate Trump with a passion I hope you can grasp that he was elected by the rules of the game as they applied in 2016. If he is forced out of office because people do not like him or his politics it is a fundamental breach of the rules of democracy as applied in the US.

    Now this might be fine if you hate Trump, BUT whatever is applied to Trump today will most certainly be applied to the next Democrat president, such that in effect the USA electoral system will be deemed caput by the public and the world at large.

    THIS IS VERY, VERY DANGEROUS

    Of course leaving a sociopathic buffoon with poor impulse control in charge of a huge nuclear arsenal is quite safe by comparison.

  13. Lateline tonight – Alberici “Locals want to know if the new battery power station will generate enough jobs to save Port Augusta”

    FFS

  14. If he is forced out of office because people do not like him or his politics it is a fundamental breach of the rules of democracy as applied in the US.

    Don’t be ridiculous. Trump could easily resign or even be impeached and both these exit methods are entirely legitimate.

  15. I like seeing the Victorian Govt about to legislate a 40% renewable energy target by 2025, but I’d like the Govt itself to invest in and own the new clean energy projects.

  16. Jolyon Wagg @ #561 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 8:03 pm

    DTT

    Even though you hate Trump with a passion I hope you can grasp that he was elected by the rules of the game as they applied in 2016. If he is forced out of office because people do not like him or his politics it is a fundamental breach of the rules of democracy as applied in the US.

    Now this might be fine if you hate Trump, BUT whatever is applied to Trump today will most certainly be applied to the next Democrat president, such that in effect the USA electoral system will be deemed caput by the public and the world at large.

    THIS IS VERY, VERY DANGEROUS

    Of course leaving a sociopathic buffoon with poor impulse control in charge of a huge nuclear arsenal is quite safe by comparison.

    I like your style.

  18. Rex

    Sadly, Victorian Labor MP Fiona Richardson has passed away from cancer.

    Will mean a by-election in Northcotte, safe Labor but only 6% margin over Greens last time

    fake news

    All class …

  21. monica (Block)
    Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:57 pm
    Comment #492
    kezza2
    As others have pointed out, to do as the Coalition/CPG demand, is to play their game. The issue will continue to feature, not because Shorten/Labor won’t release documents, but because the referred MPs still have to have their cases heard by the HC.

    ANSWER: Don’t play the game. Nip it in the bud – is that too hard to understand?

    The issue will continue to play out because the LNP MPs have their cases be determined. We don’t need speculation about Labor MPs to muddy the waters,

    This isn’t a grand final between Woop Woop C grade badminton, this is aboout governing the country.

    Why play funny buggers with it.
    —
    zoomster (Block)
    Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:56 pm
    Comment #491
    The question isn’t whether Shorten has anything better to do with his time…it’s pathetic that the government hasn’t.

    ANSWER: Well, hey, exactly. Tell me why if it’ s such a good tactic to play their game. Move on.

  25. I agree with Windsor’s submission.

    As I have written on this before, there are no real penalties for the candidate and the Party for fielding an ineligible candidate.

    A recount would penalise both for their sloppiness in not having their sh!t together.

    I don’t believe this would disenfranchise voters as all you would need to do is exclude the ineligible candidate first and distribute their 1st preference votes to the number 2. The count could then continue as normal.

  27. Any Victorians see a link between upper house MP James Purcell being seen at todays press conference on renewable energy that was mainly focused on regional areas and the impending vote on the MFB/CFA reform bill ?

  29. I have always liked the word ‘passing’. It kinda reminds me that we are all passing through and will pass away sometime. I am not sure if the

  33. [Simon Katich
    I have always liked the word ‘passing’. It kinda reminds me that we are all passing through and will pass away sometime. I am not sure if the    ]

    Bon voyage, Simon. 🙂

  34. It would seem, listening to someone explaining on ABC this evening, more of the details of the soon-to-be Plebiscite/Survey/Vote/Lucky Dip on ME, that should a member of a household be not able to cast an opinion, because they are overseas say for part of the time, any kind of ‘responsible’ person can fill in the survey document provided the permission of the absent person is given.

    This kind of really slack process does heaps for the legitimacy of any outcome me thinks.

  36. Personally have no problem with use of the word ‘passing’ to describe death, but whatever. There are always people prepared to die in a ditch over the strangest of things.

    However I was puzzling over ‘Mericans’. First time I’ve ever heard Americans described thus.

  38. Famous statue outside a university in Chicago depicts the Passing of Time. What makes this statue interesting is that Father Time is depicted as standing still while humanity passes in front of him.

  40. WB

    I should have added that whatever the history the term is (becoming was) more often used there in recent times. Like a lot of terms and phrases in English they may have faded in the originating nation but linger on in others. Still don’t like the term though but as the great Homer Simpson said about language shifts and drifts “Well, what can you do ?” 🙂

  43. You can’t call the “Mahogany Ship” successful! Although there was a rumour that the local Yangery tribe were a bit paler than their neighbours.

  44. Greensborough Growler
    I love it how some posters who emojify their contributions can criticise euphemisms as dumb
    As Pawlene once said “please explain” .H ow the feck do emoji’s equate to euphemisms ?

  45. GG:

    Pedantry around language, spelling, grammar etc is par for the course on the internet. Personally I’ve always taken the view that as long as you understand what someone is saying, who cares if there’s a spelling mistake or grammatical error in their comments.

    Life is too short etc etc.

  46. poroti @ #594 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 8:47 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    I love it how some posters who emojify their contributions can criticise euphemisms as dumb
    As Pawlene once said “please explain” .H ow the feck do emoji’s equate to euphemisms ?

    They are used by posters because they are so illiterate they can’t express themselves using the appropriate words. Sad!

  48. confessions @ #595 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 8:49 pm

    GG:

    Pedantry around language, spelling, grammar etc is par for the course on the internet. Personally I’ve always taken the view that as long as you understand what someone is saying, who cares if there’s a spelling mistake or grammatical error in their comments.

    Life is too short etc etc.

    I can agree with all that. But emojis are an abomination before the Lord!

  50. Vale Fiona Richardson

    I read only yesterday she was putting her political life on hold, till she recovered.
    Oh, what a shock. what a loss to her family

    What a loss to to Australia.

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