I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.
I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.
The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).
This is politics 101. I’m surprised how many here are struggling with it. There is a reason Shorten looks so confident when he’s asked about it.
@BK
So they afraid of bottles but not afraid of Fear/Hate groups ?
The Birthers had as much evidence about Obama as the Government, The Australian and concern trolls like RD have that Shorten is a dual citizen: none at all.
Meanwhile 8 Coalition incompetents should do the decent thing and resign so that voters can elect eligible MPS and Senators.
The slack arses should be forced to apologize for bringing democracy into disrepute.
And they should be forced to pay back now the money they have o trained under false pretenses.
And now for something completely different!
The cashless welfare card is going so well, the results speak for themselves.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/23/aboriginal-leader-withdraws-support-for-cashless-welfare-card-and-says-he-feels-used
In the first place, Obama took his time. In the 2nd place, it didn’t settle the matter with the idiots.
Question,
You should have kept going.
And in the 3rd place you …
…Absolutely BigD 🙂
Anyway, where are all these idiots reversing the onus of proof in the MSM? The only thing I saw today was an article on the SMH about Windsor where Pyne “Stopped short of demanding Shorten…”
Is it a big story on Shock Jock Radio or at the Tele or something? Who cares!
If any MP is going to be called on to show why they should not be disqualified from serving in the Parliament, there needs to be a very good reason. MPs’ standing is derived from the electoral support they received. As a general rule, MPs do not question each other’s standing for the very good reason that to do so is to question the validity of elections. There is just no basis for this and it would be damaging to the process if MPs not only had to win elections but then had to submit to a process that would inevitably be organised to suit the majority Party.
Shorten is doing the right thing. He’s not answerable to the LNP or anyone other than the House generally and his own electors. He should tell them to get lost.
Boerwar @ #449 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:01 pm
That goes without saying.
I don’t think Bill Shorten is a dual citizen. I just wonder why he wants to make a big deal out of it, instead of getting on with the job.
It’s tantamount to tempting a bully, when you’re a teenager. What’s the point.
The best way to deal with a bully is either
(a) ignore them (which Labor can’t do, because of msm),
or (b) hit them in the solar plexus with a good upper cut (the truth),
which they’re not doing.
As I said, release the stuff, and the get the hell on with it.
Fuck, it’s boring. I just can’t see any tactical advantage. Hit me with your rhythm stick.
He is getting on with the job by ignoring it.
Meanwhile, the Right’s US bestie, Trump, took some time off from. running the country to polish his Hitlerite cred.
Why is Turnbull consorting with this creep?
In a letter to Malcom Turnbull………”The voluntary survey being prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics was “nothing but a farce”, he wrote. But he was also resolute. “If the postal vote does go ahead, it will not fail. We will not fail but I will not be able to say the same about you in your role as our nation’s leader.”…….
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-will-not-fail-leukemia-diagnosis-prompts-heartfelt-letter-to-malcolm-turnbull-on-samesex-marriage-20170823-gy259a.html
Turnbull is trashing his own legacy….what a farce he has become.
I see that the Right’side false flag running dogs are Birthering away.
Dupes.
Question @ #456 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:17 pm
But, he’s not ignoring it. He’s drawing attention to it.
Sonar
No legacy to trash.
kezza2
It’s not Shorten making a fuss about the citizenship issue. It’s the fact that so many of the Coalition have been or will be referred to the HC for a ruling on their eligibility. Not one Labor MP. Not one.
Do you think Turnbull lacks self-awareness to the degree that he doesn’t know how his PMness is coming across?
You’d think by now he’d think “perhaps I should give leadership a try”. He could at least get ME through parliament (without a survey) and have a legacy that’s better than nothing.
Boerwar @ #457 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:19 pm
Because he has to. Every fucking Australian PM has done the same. To save Australia.
That’s the least of our worries.
The good thing about the cashless card is that there may be a direct financial link between the provider and the Liberal Party…
…oh, wait.
‘Not fit to be president’: Ex-spy chief lashes Trump after ‘divisive’ rally
In the wake of the rally, James Clapper, the former US director of national intelligence, openly questioned Trump’s fitness to be President.
In an appearance on CNN — the news network which Trump attacked especially at the rally — Clapper described Trump’s speech to the rally as “downright scary and disturbing” and that the president may be “looking for a way out”.
“I question his fitness to be in this office and I also wonder if he is looking for a way out,” Mr Clapper
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/trump-s-campaignstyle-rally-delivers-fake-news-to-the-faithful/news-story/07dffba414524d54b707045e937d68a4
Monica
Birthright don’the do logic.
Boerwar, Perhaps I should of used a different turn of phrase. I was mainly thinking of Turnbull on Q & A, leather jacket, acting like an adult, marriage equality should be passed by parliament…etc,etc,etc.. trashed it all he has.
Kezza,
Where is he drawing attention to it?
Q
Maybe he could do a speech extolling the z League of Right’s?
Boerwar
I presume you mean birthers?
Seriously surprised by those who think Shorten should be doing the bidding of the coalition and their cheersquad.
As said previously Turnbull had written to Shorten offering the Labor MPs the cover of HC to sort out any citizenship anamolies. Shorten said thanks but no thanks.
That should have been the signal to all and sundry that Labor were satisfied that all their MPs have taken reasonable steps to renounce dual citizenship before entering parliament.
If the coalition think otherwise, put up or shut up.
Why does Shorten need to do anything else
PhoenixRed
Yep. Trump is looking for a way out. He knows the jig is up
BW,
It’s getting that way. I have no idea what he stands for. As each day passes I’m thinking all that progressive stuff was a ruse. And yet the L-NP base still hate him for doing what everyone in OZ once loved him for… booting Abbott.
M
Auto correct stuffs things up. You are correct.
kezza2 @ #459 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:14 pm
Point ‘b’ is using the wrong analogy. “The truth” is what the bully is asking for. Give it to them, and they’ll just demand more tomorrow.
A more accurate analogy for that would be “give them your lunch money, and hope they go away”, which never works and just invites further bullying and aggression.
To hit ‘them with a good uppercut’, Labor would need to come out with truth that proves that even more Coalition members are ineligible. Or just wait it out, and have the HC trash the government’s majority. They do themselves no favors by handing out documents like candy every time a bully demands some.
victoria
I said something similar the other day. Why on earth would Shorten/Labor do what the Coalition want them to do. Look where doing what the Coalition does has got them.
Kezza
I think that the government SHOULD refer that labor MP to the High Court, even if only to have the High Court settle the matter.
In her case she did surrender her UK citizenship but did not get formal acknowledgement until after the election – 9 days.
I think that the HC would rule her eligible but if I were the government I would refer her too. They need to get complete clarity on the issue.
Obviously Labor would not be in favour and should fight it, but putting politics aside it makes sense.
BK @ #448 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:56 pm
Egads, such wanton criminality! Somebody could have been slightly moistened on a hot Phoenix night!!!
**This is politics 101.**
I dont remember it – but I couldnt stop myself at two pints at uni, so maybe it was covered in an evening lecture (or early morning one).
I do agree that Shorten should hold his ground – saying he has more important things to concentrate on than jump at everything the Coalition accuse him of, perhaps bringing up the time wasted in a certain RC. But the prolonging this issue is not, IMO, a bonus.
The MSM may have cooled on the Coalition but their option B is still ‘they are as bad as each other’, or ‘politics has become a joke’. The Coalition know this and are keen to spread the rot. I hold that disengagement is at worst a draw for them.
Phoenix
Even though you hate Trump with a passion I hope you can grasp that he was elected by the rules of the game as they applied in 2016. If he is forced out of office because people do not like him or his politics it is a fundamental breach of the rules of democracy as applied in the US.
Now this might be fine if you hate Trump, BUT whatever is applied to Trump today will most certainly be applied to the next Democrat president, such that in effect the USA electoral system will be deemed caput by the public and the world at large.
THIS IS VERY, VERY DANGEROUS
If only Australian Water Holdings were issued cashless cards.
@Victoria
They are stupid, ignorant or Trolls…
Professor Gillian Triggs lets fly at Turnbull & co:
SK,
As far as I can tell the L-NP have backed off anyway.
**The CNN reporter on the spot said it kicked off when some bottles of water were thrown at police.**
.
They were just practising their bottle flipping technique. Its all the rage you know.
https://youtu.be/hNArEpcvjwM?t=50s
This ‘Bill Shorten has questions to answer’ is just a regurgitation of ‘Julia Gillard has questions to answer’. And look where exhaustively answering their silly questions got her. Nowhere. They just said her answers only created more doubt.
Bill Shorten was there. He saw it. He is not going to play their game.
monica @ #462 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:22 pm
Yes, I know.
And, since it has been proclaimed here, that every ALP candidate,potential or otherwise, has to go through an “extreme vetting process regarding citizenship”, then what’s the big deal about releasing the information?
I, seriously, think it’s stupid, to waste so much time and effort, on the part of the ALP, just to score a point
|some time later| Can’t continue with the thought. On a phone call.
[daretotread
Kezza
I think that the government SHOULD refer that labor MP to the High Court, even if only to have the High Court settle the matter.
In her case she did surrender her UK citizenship but did not get formal acknowledgement until after the election – 9 days.
I think that the HC would rule her eligible but if I were the government I would refer her too. They need to get complete clarity on the issue.
Obviously Labor would not be in favour and should fight it, but putting politics aside it makes sense.]
Why would Labor not be in favour of it?
Labor would love it.
It would allow them to lay their processes on the table and validate them.
Also it would confirm her right to sit as opposed to the Governments members.
The question isn’t whether Shorten has anything better to do with his time…it’s pathetic that the government hasn’t.
kezza2
As others have pointed out, to do as the Coalition/CPG demand, is to play their game. The issue will continue to feature, not because Shorten/Labor won’t release documents, but because the referred MPs still have to have their cases heard by the HC.
Barney
Yes you are right, but I suppose I was saying that at least for the record Labor should say do not refer, but be glad if the government does.
Troll is such a strong word. They are just very concerned. 🙂
Andrew LeighVerified account @ALeighMP · 4h4 hours ago
Turnbull Govt caught out claiming credit for Labor’s multinational tax laws
:large
Take a look at @FinancialReview’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/900258948200017920?s=09
Think horse could be a bit worried where Trump’s tiny hand is??