BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  3. adrian @ #320 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 3:40 pm

    ‘I agree with Bemused summation of Shorten v Lane.

    Shorten got. Avery good run and apart from a couple of gotcha attempts, Shorten was permitted to explain the case clearly in any question he was asked’

    Presumably you also agree with his use of demeaning insults directed at my mental health.

    I have no trouble with people disagreeing with me, and the transcript doesn’t convey the full impact, but Bemused’s continual bullying and harassment of posters that he disagrees with is beyond the pale.

    Do you really think you don’t come across as:
    1. Obsessive in your constant harping on one topic.
    2. Delusional in that your perceptions do not align with reality.

    If you are feeling bullied and want to have a good cry, I will loan you my hanky.

  4. adrian @ #323 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 3:44 pm

    And Lane telling Shorten that he’d be in jail under the current laws didn’t make it to the transcript.

    If people disagree after listening to the audio , then fine, but lets not pretend that both have the same impact.

    Now you are lying.
    She was telling him what Turnbull or the Govt had claimed. She was not stating her own opinion.
    And I listened carefully to the audio while reading the transcript. The transcript was very accurate with a few differences like leaving out all the Umms and Ahhs and struggling to deal with both talking at the same time.

  6. shiftaling @ #331 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 3:54 pm

    I just listened to the interview with Shorten on the ABC radio app and Lane did indeed state that Shorten might have been jailed if the laws were in effect when he was a union leader

    Quoting Turnbull or others in the Govt. Not her opinion.
    To say otherwise is sheer dishonesty.

  8. William Bowe @ #335 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 4:01 pm

    I just listened to the interview with Shorten on the ABC radio app and Lane did indeed state that Shorten might be jailed if the laws were in effect when he was a union leader

    She said that’s what the PM said, as indeed he did. I took Adrian’s reference to “the current laws” to mean the ones existing at the time he did what he did. The reason I was struggling to get his point is that the transcript gives an entirely accurate account of what Lane said.

    Thank you William.
    It seems Adrian lives in an alternate reality or has serious problems of perception and understanding.

  12. Gerard Henderson is whining in the smeartralian that the ABC’s Richard Glover breached memo showing support for marriage equality

  13. Not dishonesty an honest mistake. I was responding to WB post that seemed to indicate to me that he thought the matter wasn’t in the radio interview at all. I didn’t read the transcript and I was just reporting that the matter was in the interview. When someone says “what the hell are you talking about” it implies a great degree of surprise.

  16. shiftaling @ #413 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 5:59 pm

    Not dishonesty an honest mistake. I was responding to WB post that seemed to indicate to me that the matter wasn’t in the radio interview at all. I didn’t read the transcript and I was just reporting that the matter was in the interview. When someone says “what the hell are you talking about” it implies a great degree of surprise.

    Cool.
    But it is informative to listen to the podcast while reading the transcript and then see if it bears any relationship to what Adrian posted.
    It doesn’t.

  17. Businesses on the dodgey survey. Good to see the recurring use of the word EQUALITY.

    The chief executive of Westpac’s consumer bank, George Frazis, said the bank would encourage its 30,000 employees to vote in a postal plebiscite. While the bank’s position is to support marriage equality, it would not tell staff which way to vote.

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia also said there would be an internal campaign urging its 52,000 staff to vote in a plebiscite. While the bank supports marriage equality it would not tell staff which way to vote.

    ANZ Banking Group also said it was also encouraging its staff to vote but says their decision was a personal matter

    “Qantas is a long-time supporter of marriage equality, and therefore a big supporter of a Yes vote. There is a lot we can do just by lending our voice to the discussion and that’s what we intend to do,” a Qantas spokesman said

    Telstra said it continued to support marriage equality. “We would like to see the process done quickly and fairly,” a spokesman said

    A National Australia Bank spokesman said: “We encourage people to participate in and have their say on issues that are important to them. Marriage equality is an important social issue for Australians and we must all be respectful and tolerant of everybody’s views.”

    Corporate Australia has signalled support for same-sex marriage with major airlines, banks, construction and accountancy firms establishing a network of internal employee advocacy groups.

    Former High Court judge Michael Kirby initially said he would boycott the postal vote but on Friday said if the High Court challenge failed he would vote.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/banks-urge-staff-to-vote-in-same-sexmarriage-plebiscite-20170811-gxu5wy#ixzz4pQrfqG6o
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  19. Rex Douglas (Block)
    Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:07 pm
    Comment #415
    …Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister

    as night follows day…

    What did you think of Shorten’s SSM speech yesterday Rex?

  22. Just listened to the audio and am happy to admit that I was wrong regarding the jail comment.

    Poster known as bemused:
    You have until 8.00 pm to withdraw your potentially defamatory comments regarding my mental health, which you have since repeated, admittedly in a less direct, more snide manner.

  23. adrian @ #422 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    Just listened to the audio and am happy to admit that I was wrong regarding the jail comment.

    Poster known as bemused:
    You have until 8.00 pm to withdraw your potentially defamatory comments regarding my mental health, which you have since repeated, admittedly in a less direct, more snide manner.

    yes bemused should withdraw

  24. adrian @ #422 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    Just listened to the audio and am happy to admit that I was wrong regarding the jail comment.

    Poster known as bemused:
    You have until 8.00 pm to withdraw your potentially defamatory comments regarding my mental health, which you have since repeated, admittedly in a less direct, more snide manner.

    What happens at 8:01 pm when I don’t?

  31. guytaur
    Ch 7 apparently did a poll of Warringah. 70% saying yes to marriage equality

    If only there were an election in the wind. A band of “Candidates for Equality” could get together, exchange prefs and together could defeat the appalling Abbott.

  34. Allow me to save you some money, Adrian. You haven’t been defamed, because you haven’t identified yourself here. That said, Bemused shouldn’t invoke mental illness in his personal attacks.

  36. I have tested “Block” and it is much more satisfactory than the old STFU, which blotted out the message but not the name. Using Block, the person in question simply vanishes.

  37. adrian @ #430 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    I’ll be seeking legal advice that isn’t my own come Monday.

    Go for it.
    Now let’s just speculate on what you might tell your lawyer:

    Someone anonymous on a blog, where I am also anonymous, said something describing aspects of my behaviour in a way that might be construed as implying I suffer from a mental illness.
    I was terribly offended and burst into tears.
    My psyche has been permanently scarred.

    Please report back on how long the laughter lasted.

  40. This has been mentioned by various sources.

    David Lipson‏Verified account @davidlipson · 2h2 hours ago

    This week the Govt launched a $122m survey about gay marriage, while announcing we’ll join a potential war without any public discussion

  41. I saw a documentary on JFK a while back and was quite taken with the way he delivered his speeches. Excellent content and very good use of body language – and Shorten’s SSM speech yesterday during the MPI reminded me of that. He has certainly come a long way since he became leader and will make an excellent PM.

  42. Bemused I was listening to the podcast while shaving, I haven’t got endless hours to devote to parsing every sentence on AM.

  44. William Bowe @ #434 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:29 pm

    Allow me to save you some money, Adrian. You haven’t been defamed, because you haven’t identified yourself here. That said, Bemused shouldn’t invoke mental illness in his personal attacks.

    I think I was describing certain behaviours.
    In any event, mental illness should carry no stigma and nor should any other illness.

  45. [lizzie
    Barney

    Wonderful depiction of the Mad Monk.]

    You say “wonderful”.

    I say “horrifying, terrifying, grotesque, nauseating, hideous, …” 🙂

  46. shiftaling @ #442 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    Bemused I was listening to the podcast while shaving, I haven’t got endless hours to devote to parsing every sentence on AM.

    I did hear the broadcast this morning but it was unremarkable and I didn’t take much notice. But I had enough recall to know immediately that Adrian’s post was bs, one in a long running series.

    So I took the trouble to listen again while following it on the transcript. That confirmed what I thought.

    I rarely go to such lengths, but whenever I do, Adrian is invariably wRONg.

  49. bemused @ #446 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:39 pm

    shiftaling @ #442 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    Bemused I was listening to the podcast while shaving, I haven’t got endless hours to devote to parsing every sentence on AM.

    I did hear the broadcast this morning but it was unremarkable and I didn’t take much notice. But I had enough recall to know immediately that Adrian’s post was bs, one in a long running series.

    So I took the trouble to listen again while following it on the transcript. That confirmed what I thought.

    I rarely go to such lengths, but whenever I do, Adrian is invariably wRONg.

    self awareness is underrated

  50. Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 10h10 hours ago

    Malcolm Turnbull: “We never give in to terrorism”
    Me: Check out the gigantic first panel of the fence around Parliament.

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