BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. We should all be reassured that Trump has been thinking of a nuclear war for a long time.

    No wonder HRC didn’t win the election.

    Donald Trump’s nuclear fixation – from the 1980s to now

    In 1984 – at the height of the Cold War – Mr Trump even told a Washington Post interviewer he wanted to be put in charge of US-Russia nuclear arms negotiations.
    “It would take an hour-and-a-half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles,” Mr Trump said. “I think I know most of it anyway.”

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40879868

  2. Norwester

    And in Federal Politics as well.

    The fact that Bruce Billson was getting paid $75,000 dollars salary by a small business franchise lobby group while Minister for Small Business seems to have just been shrugged of as ‘they all do it’.

    The Liberals morals are certainly flexible.

  3. Just to keep the number of confrontation hot spots moving along –

    India’s military has increased operational readiness along the eastern Indian border with China, sources said, as neither side shows any sign of backing off from a face-off in a remote Himalayan region near their disputed frontier.

    Indian and Chinese troops have been embroiled in the seven-week confrontation on the Doklam plateau, claimed by both China and India’s tiny ally, Bhutan.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-idUSKBN1AR191

  4. CTar1
    Norwester

    And in Federal Politics as well.

    The fact that Bruce Billson was getting paid $75,000 dollars salary by a small business franchise lobby group while Minister for Small Business seems to have just been shrugged of as ‘they all do it’.

    The Liberals morals are certainly flexible.
    ****************************************
    There is no such thing as ‘Liberals morals’…

  5. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia

    Thanks for the Bob Brown opinion article.

    There is talk of boycotting the postal vote as a revolt against the petty and nasty delaying tactics of Turnbull’s extreme-right bully boys. But that would play into their hands. The best way to sideline them is for the postal vote to return a triumphant yes.

    If this vote proceeds, there may be a lot of nastiness, bigotry, hate and destructive accusation. This is nothing new for the LGBTI community. Ladies and gentlemen of Australia, let’s gird our loins. I, for one, am ready to take the bullies on.

    Yep. My thinking also. No drawing ‘cocks’ and writing protest messages on the form. Just vote ‘Yes’.

  6. China on NK/US

    In an editorial published by the Communist Party-run Global Times, the Communist Party said it will oppose any attempt at regime change in North Korea but will remain neutral if North Korea strikes America first.

    The influential newspaper stated China “will firmly resist any side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where China’s interests are concerned”.

    “The Korean Peninsula is where the strategic interests of all sides converge, and no side should try to be the absolute dominator of the region,” it said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/north-korea-china-urges-calm-from-united-states/8799242

  7. Brandis would be right at home –

    Snapchat’s parent company says the US messaging app has been registered with Russia’s technology regulator without its knowledge.

    Snap told the BBC that the Roskomnadzor agency had unilaterally put it on its register of information distributors.

    The move means Snapchat will be required to keep all messages for six months and make them accessible to the Russian security services.

    Snap said it had no intention of complying with the rule.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40904552

  8. NZ – Since Arden became Labour leader –

    National campaign chairman Steven Joyce says the Jacinda effect has jolted National as well as Labour.

    “We’ve seen a big fundraising boost and a big boost in activity,” he said.

    “There was a sort of sense that the election campaign wasn’t quite happening yet and then suddenly it’s happening.”

    The Greens and New Zealand First have dropped as their soft vote has headed back to Labour

    .

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11902569

  9. UK

    Islamist terror will threaten the UK for decades, the former head of MI5 has warned as the methods of radicalisation and attack continue to adapt.

    Jonathan Evans said Britain was facing a “generational problem” seeing extremists energised by recent attacks like Westminster.

    “We’re at least 20 years into this, my guess is that we will still be dealing with the long tail in another 20 years’ time – I think this is genuinely a generational problem,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/terror-threat-uk-isis-alqaeda-former-head-mi5-attacks-threaten-britain-for-decades-generational-a7889156.html

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