New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.
Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.
Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.
716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”
Agreed Puffy,TMD. On a different note I noticed that Kill Bill 5,6…9,10 or whatever died a death. Brian truly is useless.
“Hate and fear are two very powerful political motivators. The first one is why Peter Dutton put up the idea of a postal vote on marriage equality, and the second is why Malcolm Turnbull couldn’t stop it. Chris Graham explains.”
On the same subject, the ABC reports that Michael Kirby has had a change of heart and will participate, voting yes.
North Korea details Guam missile plan as it scoffs at Trump
North Korea dismissed warnings by U.S. President Donald Trump that it would face “fire and fury” if it threatened the United States and outlined detailed plans on Thursday for a missile strike near the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam.
The Feds Are Closing In On Trump Because Paul Manafort Told Them About Russia Meeting
Bloomberg reported, “In fact, Manafort had alerted authorities to a controversial meeting on June 9, 2016, involving Trump’s son Donald Jr., other campaign representatives and a Russian lawyer promising damaging information on Hillary Clinton, according to people familiar with the matter. The president and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were dragged into the matter as details repeatedly emerged that contradicted the initial accounts of that meeting.”
Trump confidant furious over Enquirer’s Manafort ‘sex scandal’ exposé: ‘The motive would be what?’
Confidant and on-again, off-again adviser to President Donald Trump Roger Stone bashed supermarket tabloid The National Enquirer for publishing a splashy “sex scandal” exposé about former Trump 2016 chairman Paul Manafort on the day the story went public about an FBI raid on Manafort’s home.
A bit of history?
In the Matilda article detailing Potatohead’s wily plan,
Who was Labor leader at the time, Crean or Latham?
Trump Warns North Korea Of “Things They Never Thought Possible”
President Donald Trump said his earlier promise of “fire and fury” against North Korea “maybe wasn’t tough enough.”
“If North Korea does anything in terms of even thinking about attack of anybody that we love or we represent or our allies or us, they can be very, very nervous,” Trump told reporters at his New Jersey golf club where he is on a so-called working vacation.
William, of all the states is Queensland the one with the most marginal seats? A one point the seat change was 9 away from the LNP, now it is 5?
This makes sense, due to the QLD Galaxy poll as you say, but it is a big shift.
NSW is -4 seats for the coalition, I don’t know if it has been higher since the election.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
What next from Abbott? Now he wants a missile shield! Perhaps Turnbull could use one for himself.
John Hewson piles into Turnbull over his handling of the SSM issue saying that he has consistently chosen political expediency, and compromise, rather than commitment and substance on this and so many issues.
Mark Kenny is fulsome in his praise of Shorten’s MPI speech on the postal survey yesterday.
Katharine Murphy was also quite impressed.
James Massola outlines the strong points that Shorten made.
Cormann must have been stung by Penny Wong’s speech on the postal vote and reaches out to offer special legislation to set “fair” ground rules for the debate. A bit late Mathias – your mob have already shown their colours!
Laura Tingle calls “crap” on the survey. Google.
Here’s an op-ed piece from Penny Wong on the survey.
Bob Brown writes that there is talk of boycotting the postal vote on marriage equality as a revolt against the delaying tactics of the government. That would be a mistake, he says.
Judith Ireland writes about the excoriating opinions of polling experts on the postal survey.
Section 2 . . .
ACT Senator Zed Seselja will vote “no” in the Turnbull government’s postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, arguing Christians and other religious believers could persecuted for their views on marriage and sexuality if the law is changed. Turn it up Zed!
David Crowe writes that Australians face a campaign free-for-all on same-sex marriage as all sides mobilise to win a postal vote, amid fears there will be no rules to govern the ballot or curb offensive ¬advertising. Google.
Ben Eltham says the postal survey is vicious and cruel and that’s why we must vote. He really lets fly!
Michelle Grattan opines that Shorten’s campaigning skill should get the “yes” vote over the line and, in doing so, give Turnbull some protection.
Stephen Koukoulas has his say on the survey.
Adele Ferguson is on Bruce Billson’s case as he goes into lobbying overdrive to water down a bill on the discredited franchise industry. She says that since joining the FCA, Billson’s lobbying efforts to dilute the bill have been described as unprecedented as his relationships and connections helped him reach right into the bowels of the government and the party room.
Meanwhile Pizza Hut head office has been blasted for failing to respond to warnings about the underpayment of delivery drivers and allowing allegedly unlawful activity to spread through its network to in-store staff.
The editorial in The Age goes to Guy’s lobster troubles to call for a fix on political donations.
It beggars belief that the “tough on crime” campaigner Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy dined on lobster and Grange with the alleged Godfather of the Melbourne Mafia, Tony Madaferri. Worse, we now we hear that the (now former) Victorian Liberal Party’s fundraiser, Barrie Macmillan, suggested “splitting” donations from the crime boss in order to hide them from the Australian Electoral Commission.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission is considering pursuing a case against Commonwealth Bank of Australia directors that would allege they breached their duties to protect the company’s reputation when responding to AUSTRAC warnings the institution was being used for money laundering. Google.
Section 3 . . .
This detailed report on the cancerous corruption within the Border Force is a bit of a worry. In particular, the cover-ups and removal of oversight.
One of Australia’s most respected former law-enforcement officials has called on the government to restore anti-corruption measures abolished by the Abbott government, saying border officials were prime targets for organised crime. Google.
Manildra is still playing funny buggers over mandated d ethanol in fuel. More and and more, the ethanol mandate resembles a tax on Sydney drivers to secure tens of thousands of dollars in political donations.
A lot of staff at the ABC are unhappy with the “heavy handed” memo instructing them to be “even handed” in covering SSM.
An angry delegation of Labor MPs confronted opposition immigration spokesman Shayne Neumann on Wednesday night about what they view as Labor’s silence on Australia’s offshore detention of refugees. They reckon Dutton’s got the better of him.
Gai Brodtmann has lashed Turnbull government minister Paul Fletcher over comments to Parliament about Canberra, accusing him of disrespect for federal public servants.
Trump ratchets up his fiery rhetoric on North Korea even further.
But it’s probably just his usual bluster.
Anne Summers tells us that we are a frightened nation that needs to reconstruct its values.
The estimated cost of the Sydney gateway project connecting the WestConnex tollroad to the city’s airport and port has more than doubled to as much as $1.8 billion, a leaked document shows.
Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1
A United Nations special rapporteur has criticised the Turnbull government’s approach to social protection policy, saying its framing of “welfare” appears designed to prejudice the debate against welfare recipients.
The retail electricity market has been “spivified”. Look at the results of this study.
Has Kyle Sandilands been laying down with a few dogs?
Ron Tandberg and Postman Mal again.
Matt Golding has a little beauty on the survey.
Andrew Dyson sums up Turnbull’s leadership.
Trump’s Legal Team Is No Match for Mueller’s
As Mueller adds experienced prosecutors and broadens his investigation, Trump’s legal team still appears disorganized and understaffed.
Trump’s efforts to enlist the services of a large firm have so far been rebuffed
Facing Mueller without a high-powered legal team “is like going to a knife fight with a stick of butter in your hand”
Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2
Cathy Wilcox is unhappy with the current state of government.
John Shakespeare and North Korean tensions.
Mark David and Turnbull’s self-proclaimed “strong leadership”.
Broelman goes to Guam.
Paul Zanetti on celebrations of success after yesterday’s summit with energy retailers.
Andrew Weldon on the quality of debate we can expect before the postal survey.
Cathy Wilcox reminds us of an old cartoon on the plebiscite. How prescient it was!
David Rowe beautifully depicts Trump.
MUST SEE! David Pope and a “relieved” Turnbull.
Oh dear! Mark Knight really goes to town on the Liberal Party.
Andrew Dyson conflates two recent stories on crustaceans.
Earlier this morning I posted that I heard on ABC News Radio that Michael Kirby had changed his mind on voting Yes. I can find no reference to this in the media, just the earlier story. It hasn’t been mentioned on ABC News 24 TV. Maybe I was mistaken. I don’t know. So I will withdraw that earlier comment (can no longer edit it)..
The Greens have a similar position as Labor on the survey, Di Natale :
“The Greens, who oppose the postal vote and were part of one of the legal challenges lodged in the High Court on Thursday are also starting to come around. With just two weeks for people to enrol or update their details on the electoral roll, Greens leader Richard Di Natale said it was best to be prepared in the event the “shonky postal vote” was not “knocked off” by the court.
“Make sure your whole household has checked their enrolment and is ready to go,” he said.”
From Coorey’s article in the AFR
Bill Shorten urges divided same-sex marriage advocates to vote Yes
Bill Shorten has implored gay marriage advocates to drop their resistance to a postal ballot, warning disunity is exactly what opponents want.
You are not mistaken. Kirby will vote yes, his partner is abstaining.
An easy way for Coalition parliamentarians like Zed’s concerns to be addressed would be for the government to be actively involved in drafting the Bill on ssm (instead of supporting a private member’s bill) and putting in the relevant provisions.
Or, of course, they can vote No and leave it to a Labor government to draft the Bill.
Back to the CBA, ASIC is taking an interesting tack:
“The Australian Securities and Investments Commission is considering pursuing a case against Commonwealth Bank of Australia directors that would allege they breached their duties to protect the company’s reputation when responding to AUSTRAC warnings the institution was being used for money laundering.”
This is all about the response to AUSTRAC warnings.
ASIC may pursue case alleging Commonwealth Bank directors breached duties
ASIC is considering pursuing a case against CBA, alleging its directors breached their duties to protect the bank’s reputation.
Steve777 @ #17 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:11 am
What lizzie said.
John Reidy @ #18 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:16 am
I said yesterday that the pro-SSM groups needed to unify and get on message if they want to maximise their influence. Shorten has come out very strongly and the greens should just get on board. But, history shows they usually try word games and semantics to differentiate themselves in their never ending quest to undermine Labor. Shorten’s right with his assertions regarding participating in the process.
‘The Greens, who oppose the postal vote and were part of one of the legal challenges lodged in the High Court on Thursday are also starting to come around. ‘
I absolutely detest this kind of spin by journalists (oh, sorry, only politicians spin, and it’s a sign of how Evil they are, so of course journos wouldn’t do such a thing…)
You can oppose something being put into place but then, once it’s there, try and make it work. It’s part and parcel of politics – when politicians amend Bills they fundamentally disagree with to try and improve them, and then vote the Bill down, no one accuses them of hypocrisy.
Neither Labor nor the Greens have ‘come around’. They both still believe that a postal vote/plebiscite are totally unnecessary and probably dangerous. But if one or the other of these options goes ahead, they also have a responsibility to advise the public on the ‘least worse’ reaction.
That photo just begs for a caption competition.
“Don’t worry, Penny, this will be a civilised debate.”
I couldn’t think of a witty one. Anyone else?
Trump inner circle ‘rattled’ by pre-dawn raid on Manafort’s home: report
“We’re learning about this development at the same time as the Trump team, two sources telling CNN, the news took them by surprise,” the CNN host continued. “It was a clear signal that the investigation is going forward, and not necessarily with a light touch.”
Cooper added: “Once source says it — quote — rattled a few cages of the inner circle.”
Nothing up my sleeve apart from a $122 mill farce to pass judgement on your family and kids!
Mueller’s Investigators Just Revealed Who Snitched On Trump Jr. For Secret Russia Meeting
It turns out that Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort was the original source of information
Manafort’s disclosure of the infamous meeting with Kremlin-linked agents is even implicating Kushner’s wife, Ivanka Trump.
Based on recent reports, the only major remaining question about Paul Manafort is; how long until he turns state’s evidence and rats out his former employer?
Totally correct about journalism and the Greens. Of course the media is in CYA mode as they enabled this farce.
They gave legitimacy and equal time to the hateful bigots. They put them on a pedestal they did not deserve. The media is as much responsible as Turnbull for unleashing the dogs of war against the LGBTI community.
zoomster – “Penny for your thoughts?”
If you are backing Mr Shorten’s position in this campaign on the survey I wish to say good on you for rejecting bigotry.
Actions speak louder than any words and I do take note.
Morning all. There seems to be conflicting advice about overseas Australians. Last night PBers were told they wouldn’t be sent the plebiscite ballot, but this from the UK says they will:
here’s a background on the Minister incharge of the ABS.
guytaur @ #35 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:18 am
I’ve always opposed the Plebiscite and this PP abomination. That’s nothing new.
However, given that it will likely happen, the best way for anyone to make their point is to vote for the option they prefer.
I’m not sure which way I’ll vote until I see the question put forward.
I am not going to argue when we do have agreement on the survey.
Hopefully the High Court will rule the government cannot get around parliament to send voters to the polls on any issue.
Anyone who still harbours the illusion that the ABC is am impartial news organisation should have a listen to Sabra Lane’s interview with Shorten. Towards the end she goes really feral, talking over Bill about him being in jail under the new law, dining with millionaires (!) etc etc.
Pretty disgraceful stuff.
And I can report that from my listening that all ABC journos are 100% compliant with the SSM directive.
AP: CNN fires pro-Trump commentator Jeffrey Lord after he tweets Hitler salute. apne.ws/UTlXApC
Greensborough Growler @ #37 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:18 am
He’s a rugger bugger from Wagga. Cut from the same cloth as Heffernan, harking back to Reagan and hoping they just die already. ‘Very unpleasant’ and ‘very unfortunate’ says Pyne, overextending himself, of this filth:
“Unfortunately gays are here and, if the disease their unnatural acts helped spread doesn’t wipe out humanity, they’re here to stay.”
I especially like the “unfortunately gays are here to stay” which suggest in more fortunate times they could / should be got rid of.
One thing this debate does achieve – it flushes them out alright, here, there and everywhere.
lanesainty: The marriage postal survey High Court challenge is up TODAY: hcourt.gov.au/assets/registr… pic.twitter.com/GVvoTXjVl3
Gee whiz. Finally CNN get rid of the buffoon that is Jeffrey Lord. How they allowed his ridiculous commentary to be aired for so long is beyond me. A total waste of space.
This whole pretend plebiscite has a jerry-rigged look and feel about it. This is not what the ABS does, its systems and processes have not been designed for what is meant to be a vote. The timeframe is rushed. Staff will be under enormous pressure to meet a tight, inflexible deadline in addition to doing all their other work. Even if it survives the High Court chaalange, it could all collapse in an ignominious heap. Then the Government will blame the hapless ABS staff.
Is the ABC directive limited only to offering views on SSM or does it include questioning the value to taxpayers of the plebiscite?
Confessions, according to Mike Carlton on Twitter, it’s a directive to use the phrase SSM instead of ME.
Carlton was not happy.
News Breakfast for one is doing the right thing. They do however abide by calling it SSM not ME.
The tweet I shared from Barrie Cassidy seem s to sum up most ABC commentators. They are calling out the hate speech.
Who ever gave that directive did it in the Mark Scott era.
ABC has not been using Marriage Equality for the Australian debate for years. This was starkly apparent when they referred to the US campaign and court case as about Marriage Equality while using SSM for our debate here.
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