BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. phoenixRed

    This makes sense

    Dr. Dena Grayson Retweeted
    Dr. Dena Grayson
    Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    2h
    Criminals RARELY fully truthful. 5th Amendment allows Manafort to withhold certain info. And FBI raid put fear of Mueller in Team

  2. It was funny watching Lateline last night. Emma Alberici was using ”Same Sex marriage’ as she was interviewing the ABC political reporter David Lipson who kept refering to ‘Marriage Equality’.

    Mustn’t have got the memo

  3. [zoomster
    lizzie

    That photo just begs for a caption competition.

    “Don’t worry, Penny, this will be a civilised debate.”

    “F*ck off.”]

    Whey she gave her speech in the Senate the other day, he also looked very uncomfortable and was squirming around in his seat.

    They really are a bunch of unconscionable pigs!

  4. I’m voting yes and encouraging all I know to participate and vote yes.
    Putting “Yes to equality” printouts on front door, letter box and back of car.

    After reading Penny’s and KB articles agree is a fight cannot walk away from

  5. Was thinking maybe “a put out your rainbow flag” campaign would take off.
    But then the crazies will probably run ads saying a yes vote means Australia’s flag will change.

  6. Sprocket and Victoria – re the comment on the Abbott and the Jacket photo and the reference to one James Dean.

    I assume you realise that Jimmy was a Gay man.

  7. victoria

    phoenixRed

    Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson

    Criminals RARELY fully truthful. 5th Amendment allows Manafort to withhold certain info. And FBI raid put fear of Mueller in Team

    ****************************************

    I dare say that the Mueller/Schneiderman team already have the goods on Manafort to put him away for a LONG time – so I guess its his choice between Loyalty to Trump/the 5th and lifetime jail……. or save his own skin by fully turning states evidence for a lighter sentence

  8. guytaur @ #50 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:47 am

    Adrian

    Who ever gave that directive did it in the Mark Scott era.

    ABC has not been using Marriage Equality for the Australian debate for years. This was starkly apparent when they referred to the US campaign and court case as about Marriage Equality while using SSM for our debate here.

    No, it was a very recent directive according to this article in the SMH:

    The memo comes after Lateline host Emma Alberici called Australia’s handling of same-sex marriage an “indictment” on both sides of politics on social media.

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/abc-staff-gagged-over-marriage-equality-20170810-gxt71j.html

  9. Apologies if already posted.

    The High Court have put the afterburners on, and arevhearing both the Wilkie and Marriage Equality challenges to the postal plebiscite this afternoon at 3.30pm in Sydney. Cheif Justice Kiefel has allocated herself to hear the pleadings.

    The details of the Wilikie challenge is here

    https://jumpshare.com/v/xlN0uFmzrbQca0xfs6Ig

    In short, an injunction is being sought to delay the postal survey until the Constitutional matters detailed are argued and ruled upon.

  10. Fess/PhoenixR

    Manafort has been trying to do a deal with the feds for months.

    Just want this wrapped up asap. Trump has no shame in doing anything in his power to distract. Hence his sabre rattling of North Korea

  11. Adrian

    Whats offensive about that is that it highlights the real issue that the NO to the gays lot have already lost.

    They know conceding its about equality means they lose.

  12. adrian

    Marriage equality makes it harder for those against it to argue the point. The word equality is the key. Same sex marriage sounds less appealing to those who are still not comfortable with it for whatever stupid reason.

  13. 3AW693: PM Turnbull: “I have been a supporter of gay marriage for much longer than him (Bill Shorten).” #auspol

    wonky_disco: THEN ACT LIKE IT twitter.com/3aw693/status/…

  14. “A “gold standard super survey,” that door-knocked 15,000 to 20,000 people (in every demographic), face-to-face would cost in the ballpark of $1 million. ”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/worst-type-of-research-you-can-do-apart-from-robopolls-pollsters-rubbish-postal-vote-20170809-gxsboc.html

    So where oh where have the Libs for Responsible Economic Managment gone?? Under a rock somewhere.

    FFS. They have staked their position on this postal pleb that could get knocked down as soon as this afternoon…and its becoming more and more obvious complete and utter bullshit on so many different levels.

  15. Actually, William…..what are your thoughts on:

    “A “gold standard super survey,” that door-knocked 15,000 to 20,000 people (in every demographic), face-to-face ”

    Not on cost, but effectiveness on gauging support for ME vs the proposed postal pleb??

  16. victoria
    Fess/PhoenixR
    Manafort has been trying to do a deal with the feds for months.
    ****************************************
    Manaforts ex-Son in Law has been in touch with investigators – Yohai provided information and documents to federal investigators in New York more than two months ago, according to one of the sources.
    The sources say the Justice Department was seeking cooperation related to the federal investigation into Manafort for possible money laundering or tax violations in his business dealings with pro-Russia parties in Ukraine.
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/08/10/politics/manafort-yohai-justice-department-investigation-russia/index.html

  17. GG

    If you are about. Have you seen the front page of the Herald Sun. It relates to a Victorian state MP. From what I saw, headline said wtte

    A SYRIAN LIAR

  18. “3AW693: PM Turnbull: “I have been a supporter of gay marriage for much longer than him (Bill Shorten).” #auspol”

    Has someone handed Malcolm a bigger shovel then??

  19. Last night on Lateline Emma mocked Shorten for changing his mind on SSM.
    There are many in the same boat and I think it shows the ability to accept social change.
    She was just trying for gotchas. You could see it in her face.

  20. crgentle: I honestly think that in their haste the govt have allowed 16 & 17 year olds to participate in the SSM postal vote #auspol pic.twitter.com/BIvrQvEO1k

  21. William is there any sign that the swing in the marginals might be better or worse than the general trend to Labor. I’ve got a feeling in my gut (which is always wrong) that out in the mortgage belt where there are cost of living pressures, more job insecurity, etc etc, the Libs might get a real belting.

  22. @ imacca – you are expecting too much rational thinking.

    There have already been dozens of surveys by reputable firms (the ones WB includes on BT). These would likely already add up to 15-20k respondents, and they have all shown ME has support at about 2:1. Even if all ‘undecided’ went with ‘no’, then it would still be somethign like 3:2 support.

    If they wanted to pass ME with the least effort, they would do it based off existing opinion polls, not a new opinion poll.

  23. lizzie

    A great deal of people have changed their mind over marriage equality over time. Just like many other social issues. Being open minded is surely better than being stuck in a narrow mind set. What is wrong with these Frickin journos

  24. Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Many Hill GOP are delighted Trump’s going after them-it’s allowing them to separate from him. They know they need to-this makes it easier.
    9:20 AM · Aug 11, 2017

  25. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    So ex son in law provided info two months ago, and the feds did a raid on Manafort July 26

    *****************************************************

    I think its abandon the Trumptanic – man the lifeboats time now – every man/woman for themself – and the sound of canaries singing gets louder every day as the next skin of the onion is pealed away……. a Mueller threat of 20 years in Leavenworth/Rikers Island Penitentiary will loosen a few of those snakes tongues ……

  26. [imacca
    “3AW693: PM Turnbull: “I have been a supporter of gay marriage for much longer than him (Bill Shorten).” #auspol”

    Has someone handed Malcolm a bigger shovel then??]

    Obvious follow up.

    So why are you allowing the Right of your Party, who oppose change, to dictate and obstruct the process?

    And don’t give me any bullsh!t about “we took the policy to the election” or “we’re keeping our promise to the electorate.”

  27. NMaconachie: Hey @TurnbullMalcolm I didn’t get my postal vote about whether we will go to war with North Korea. Can you pls resend? Cheers, Nick #auspol

  28. victoria

    But looks like replacing him with Bill O’Reilly.

    CNN must be trolling with that suggestion ! Or CNN are so desperate for viewers that they’ll take Bill O’Bloviator fans.

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