BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. senthorun: Take note of all MPs who insist that equality should be dependent on a voluntary survey and compulsorily vote them out at the next election.

  2. [antonbruckner11
    Barney: Yup. Why did you go to an election with a policy you didn’t believe in?
    ]

    But they didn’t take this policy to an election.

    Their policy was to have a plebiscite which is a very different thing.

    Now they spin it as “promising to give the people a say”, bullsh!t.

    But what Turnbull has now committed to is something he has acknowledged in the past as undemocratic and exclusive.

  3. I see we have pages now, at least on this device (Windows 10), with the ability to jump. Great – much easier for chasing up past discussions, responses, Dawn Patrol.

  4. Poroti

    With 7 billion people on the planet, you would think that CNN could be more original with a replacement to Jeffrey Lord. Recycling hacks is so passe

  5. SimonBanksHB: You claim you haven’t broken an election promise but even @ABSStats says it’s a survey – not a plebiscite

    #weakleadership @TurnbullMalcolm

  6. [guytaur
    senthorun: Take note of all MPs who insist that equality should be dependent on a voluntary survey and compulsorily vote them out at the next election.
    ]

    That would be a great campaign for someone like GetUp to run.

    How could the Conservatives complain?

    There would be targets from both major Parties amongst others.

  7. Trump thanks Putin for expelling U.S. diplomats, dismaying State Department

    President Donald Trump on Thursday thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for expelling American diplomats from Russia on the grounds that “we’re going to save a lot of money,” prompting dismay among some of the rank-and-file at the State Department.

    “I want to thank him because we’re trying to cut down our payroll, and as far as I’m concerned I’m very thankful that he let go of a large number of people because now we have a smaller payroll,”

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/10/trump-thanks-vladimir-putin-diplomats-241498?lo=ap_c1

  8. PhoenixRed

    Trump wasn’t concerned about cutting costs when secret service had to protect his offspring at Trump Tower. What a bloody piece of excrement. America should truly be ashamed of itself for this shit show

  9. Is NZ about to experience the Macron or Corbyn effect at their election next month?

    Jacindamania has gripped New Zealand, with the new Labour leader surging in the latest polls after only one week in the job.

    Newshub/Reid Research polling showed support for the party had leapt nine points to 33.1 in the week since Jacinda Ardern took over from Andrew Little. Labour’s internal polling company – UMR – reportedly has them on 36 points.

    As preferred prime minister, Ardern has added 19.6 points to her predecessor’s score and now sits at 26.3 – or 1.4 points behind prime minister Bill English with more than six weeks to go before the election on 23 September.

    The Labour party has also received close to $500,000 in donations since its unexpected change of leadership, and 3,500 volunteers have signed on to campaign around the country. According to Labour’s general secretary, Andrew Kirton, the majority of them are women.

    “The Jacinda effect is the explosion of interest and positive support for the Labour party based on the personality of Jacinda Ardern, I’ve never seen anything like it,” said political commentator Bryce Edwards.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/10/new-zealand-gripped-by-jacindamania-as-new-labour-leader-soars-in-polls

  10. Steve777 @ #46 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:38 am

    This whole pretend plebiscite has a jerry-rigged look and feel about it. This is not what the ABS does, its systems and processes have not been designed for what is meant to be a vote. The timeframe is rushed. Staff will be under enormous pressure to meet a tight, inflexible deadline in addition to doing all their other work. Even if it survives the High Court chaalange, it could all collapse in an ignominious heap. Then the Government will blame the hapless ABS staff.

    Absolutely agree. Anyone who participates in this farce is just helping to make a mockery of both our institutions and our system of government. Not that I hold the current ABS in high esteem, but they were once a respected institution.

  11. imacca @ #113 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:08 am

    “One aspect I am not clear about is how this “survey” squares with our current anti discrimination laws.”

    ???

    I think this may be a reference to what Michael Kirby and others have been saying – i.e. that having a survey on whether to give some rights to a small minority wrongly singles out that minority for special treatment – and doing so may be illegal.

  12. Imacca

    Sorry. To be more clear. We have anti discriminatory and equal opportunity laws in place.

    This survey to be conducted by the actual govt. On the face of it looks very discriminatory and also not in the spirit of equally opportunity.

    How does the govt believe it isn’t?

  13. Yet again the RBA tells us low wage growth is bad for the economy – he needs to SHOUT his message to Turnbull, Morrison and the business lobby.

    Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has identified low wage growth as one of the key risks to the Australian economy, saying along with high debt and energy prices it’s crimping consumer spending.

    “Many people are getting used to lower growth in their real wages,” he told a parliamentary hearing in Melbourne. “Many now see this as more than just a temporary development, with wage increases of 2 point something per cent now the norm.”

    “At the same time, the household sector is also dealing with higher levels of debt relative to income. Higher electricity prices are also affecting household budgets.”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-governor-philip-lowe-wage-growth-too-low-rates-to-climb-but-not-for-some-time-20170810-gxtb2l.html

  14. Player one

    Exactly. On the face of it, it is clearly illegal. You only have to look at the basic premise of anti discriminatory and equal opporunity laws to see it. Not complicated at all

  15. Citizen

    I have been saying this for ages. Wages stagnation coupled with increase in costs across the board

    Housing/mortgage, rentals
    Energy costs
    Health insurance costs

    To name a few…..

    Is putting real pressure on households

  16. [victoria
    Citizen

    I have been saying this for ages. Wages stagnation coupled with increase in costs across the board

    Housing/mortgage, rentals
    Energy costs
    Health insurance costs

    To name a few…..

    Is putting real pressure on households</b]

    Which in turn puts real pressure on the economy as they have less to spend in it.

  17. Obviously Turnbull is afraid of what the RWNJs would do to him if he co-signed a letter with Shorten advocating a ‘yes’ vote:

    Mr Shorten has suggested he and Malcolm Turnbull jointly write a letter to every Australian, “stating that we both support marriage equality and encouraging every Australian to say yes”.

    “I think it would be a very healthy moment, not only in the marriage equality debate but in Australian politics,” Mr Shorten said.

    Mr Turnbull said it could be “counter-productive” to co-sign a letter with Mr Shorten.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/same-sex-marriage-campaign-hate-free-bill/8796634

  18. Turnbull’s statement of “all the way with Trump” is him trying to distract attention from SSM. It’s a very dangerous ploy however.

  19. victoria @ #118 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:17 am

    Player one

    Exactly. On the face of it, it is clearly illegal. You only have to look at the basic premise of anti discriminatory and equal opporunity laws to see it. Not complicated at all

    I agree that the best possible outcome is if the HC knocks it back. I’m not an expert, but I can’t really see how they can do so on anti-discrimination grounds – after all, when all is said and done, it’s not actually proposing legislation or changing anything – it’s just an expensive opinion poll, and we have had many on exactly the same issue. The government could just counter that it is seeking additional information in order to reduce discrimination. The only argument that might work is that it will incite hatred against a minority – but that is pretty tenuous.

    The most likely hurdle is the funding issue. The HC may knock it back for that reason.

  20. “TA now requesting a missile defence shield for Australia”

    I think that characterising defensive systems , particularly those to do with anti-ballistic missile defense as shields is a bit misleading. Basically, even with a system like that working exactly as designed, its not infallible. A % of incoming will get through.

    Ties in a bit with the whole “we are the most powerful nation” thing from the US.

    Yup, they are, but that doesn’t mean that they wont take losses (maybe large ones) and hurt in any conflict. And that seems to me that people expect that because they are so powerful they can engage in conflict at no or minimal cost. Wont happen. thats not the nature of warfare.

    And missile defence for Australia?? The AWD’s (Hobart Class) have i believe, the long version of the Mk 41 VLS system. That can take the versions of the SM missile (we currently use SM2, medium range AA and some ASu capability) adapted for ballistic missile interception. So, upgrading the fire control system (already Aegis) and rounds in the VLS, and we have a platform for it. The US is also deploying “Aegis Ashore”. THAD is a different (actually shorter ranged) system that we would not get as good a value out of. So, if we need the capability we can probably get it in place. And if we ever had to use it its a lot more likely to be used in a high end anti aircraft, access denial context rather than ballistic missile defence.

    And with the NK and their “plan” to conduct some kind of “test” in the general direction of Guam??

    Well, if they try and launch 4 missiles that way, first thing is that 2-3 of them will probably fail to launch or fwark up somehow going by their test results to date.

    Any that do fly? Well by now the US will have a couple of destroyers with SM3 and or SM6 sitting off Guam. Defence plans for Guam will actually be oriented towards a mass Chinese missile attack so i strongly suspect they wont have any trouble defeating 1 or two incoming NK shots. And the WILL try and shoot down anything coming their way, regardless of where they project it to land.

    The real worry here is that Trump goes and over reacts. What the NK’s are “planning” is actually NOT an attack on US territory, but a missile test in their direction. Stupid and inflammatory yes, with lots of ways it could go wrong. But hopefully the US can be “big enough” to not burn NK further back into the stone age as a response.

  21. guytaur @ #78 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 9:14 am

    3AW693: PM Turnbull: “I have been a supporter of gay marriage for much longer than him (Bill Shorten).” #auspol

    wonky_disco: THEN ACT LIKE IT twitter.com/3aw693/status/…

    And there’s the rub ain’t it. As with everything Trumble the talk is cheap and the actions non-existent.

    In September 2012 both Bill and Trumble had a chance to act for gay marriage.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-19/same-sex-marriage-bill-voted-down/4270016

    So nice of the ABC to leave a convenient record of who voted yes and who voted no. It takes but a second to see that Bill was an aye, and Trumble a nay.

    Now tbf to Brian Jellyback it was much easier to do so for Shorten because he was permitted a conscience vote. The spineless slug would have had to surrender his position as NBN wrecker in chief and so do his ultimate aim of becoming PM some damage. These things are demonstrably far far more important to Trumble than his ‘support’ for SSM. We wouldn’t be here now if that were not the case.

    Trumble’s support for anything is always in the abstract, and contingent on it not costing him anything or even posing a slight risk to his only true principle – the greater glory of Brian Trumble. A shallower more fair weather friend you will not find than the Trumble Crumble. The suits hanging in my wardrobe are not as empty as the one he is wearing.

  22. [lizzie
    If there’s a war, count us in

    Thanks for nothing, Malcolm.]

    Sorry Lizzie,

    It’s a bullsh!t non story.

    The premise is, if North Korea attacked the USA.

    Obviously under our alliance with USA this would be the most likely outcome/default position.

    If it was coming out in support of the USA attacking North Korea, then that would be a very different matter.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/australia-would-enter-conflict-with-north-korea/8796586

  23. @ lizzie – I believe ‘queer’ is a catchall to cover anything that doesn’t fit within the previous labels or straight, considering that gender identity and sexuality can be fluid and non binary.

  24. “Steve777
    If there’s a war, count us in

    We haven’t missed one yet.”

    May also have something to do with us being part of the UN forces in the Korean War and obligations flowing form that. That finished with an armistice didn’t it, so actually is, technically, still on??

    doGS, but this will get nasty and complicated. Regardless of what else any one thinks of her, i reckon Hillary as POTUS would have been a much better person to handle this shit.

  25. Lizzie

    I understand that Gay and Lesbian folk on occasion refer to themselves as “queer”.

    In the bad old days “they” were often called “queer”.

    We don’t use such terms chez KayJay. We simply think of people as people.

    Hard to think of Trumble and crew politely but we do try.

  26. Voice Endeavour @ #135 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:43 am

    @ lizzie – I believe ‘queer’ is a catchall to cover anything that doesn’t fit within the previous labels or straight, considering that gender identity and sexuality can be fluid and non binary.

    I really wish we could find a better term than “LGBTIQ(etc)”. Everyone stumbles over it, and it is really silly to just keep adding letters whenever anyone thinks of a new sexual quirk that isn’t adequately covered by the existing ones.

  27. My mother called me in a tremendous state when she heard someone say queer to refer to LGBTIQ folks on The Drum. I had to explain to her that we’ve reclaimed the word and it’s okay if said neutrally or even better with love.

  28. [citizen
    Obviously Turnbull is afraid of what the RWNJs would do to him if he co-signed a letter with Shorten advocating a ‘yes’ vote:

    Mr Turnbull said it could be “counter-productive” to co-sign a letter with Mr Shorten.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/same-sex-marriage-campaign-hate-free-bill/8796634]

    Whilst listening to Question Time yesterday I made the point that I thought Turnbull had surpassed the Potato as the most disgusting person in the Cabinet.

    This just reinforces that view.

    What could be counterproductive about such a show of bipartisan leadership?

    The only negative in such an act would be discontent with it by some within his own Party.

    It just reinforces the idea that Turnbull is all about “Malcolm first.”

    F@#% the principles, this could personally hurt me.

  29. The good thing about this ME clusterfuck, is that it has to remove any lingering doubts that Trumble has any conviction about anything, any principles at all, beyond his own survival.

    Anybody who still believes in the shadow Malcolm would have to be willfully stupid

  30. citizen @ #125 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:32 am

    Obviously Turnbull is afraid of what the RWNJs would do to him if he co-signed a letter with Shorten advocating a ‘yes’ vote:

    Mr Shorten has suggested he and Malcolm Turnbull jointly write a letter to every Australian, “stating that we both support marriage equality and encouraging every Australian to say yes”.

    “I think it would be a very healthy moment, not only in the marriage equality debate but in Australian politics,” Mr Shorten said.

    Mr Turnbull said it could be “counter-productive” to co-sign a letter with Mr Shorten.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/same-sex-marriage-campaign-hate-free-bill/8796634

    Bill really just leads this moron around by the nose doesn’t he? Why did Bill offer? Because it’s win-win for him, and lose-lose for Trumble. It is both a genuine offer to get Trumble to do the right thing, AND smart politics. Shorten knows Trumble has gotten himself into a lose-lose bind and is far too piss weak to get himself out of it.

    If by some miracle Brian found a spine and agreed Bill wins because it makes his yes case stronger, goes a long way to ensuring passage, and continues to have him leading the push by making the offer before Trumble could do it.

    But in the 99.9% probability option of Trumble saying no, Bill still wins on the leadership and acting for the good sides, but also demonstrates Trumble’s insignificance. He has forced Trumble to confirm what a slug he is, rather than letting it simply be implied.

    Expect lots more offers from Bill to Trumble to show some spine and campaign beside him if this shit show goes ahead. What a buffoon Brian is.

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