BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. It seems to me that anyone who is comfortable with their own sexuality feels no need to get their knickers knotted over other people’s behaviour.

  2. [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #142 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:53 am

    Mr Turnbull said it could be “counter-productive” to co-sign a letter with Mr Shorten.

    He’s quite right. Mal is so unpopular that he would suppress the ‘Yes’ vote if he supported it, just as he did with the republic vote.]

    According to the polling Shorten is equally unpopular with only a slight advantage in the net sat figures so you would expect any letter from him alone equally likely to suppress the vote.

    By the way shouldn’t you have addressed this point to citizen as they were the one to post it.

  3. [KayJay
    Barney in Go Dau

    Thanks for the musical interlude ❗]

    I sense you’re unsure how you’re feeling at the moment. 🙂

  4. [a r

    Yes, but the opposition will deflect that point and hide their insecurity by saying “what does marriage have to do with sex?”.]

    For some opponents,

    everything.

  5. I don’t think it’s going to go ahead though. The parallels with Bowen’s failure at the HC to be able to declare Malaysia a safe destination for refugees simply because he said it is are going to kill it I hazard (an admittedly uniformed) a guess.

    Corman is trying to argue that expenditure of the Finance Minister’s allocation is basically available for him to do with what he wishes. Urgent expenditure is whatever he says it is.

    I don’t think the HC will look kindly on the idea that whenever the executive finds the legislature constraining it by not allocating funds to any boondoggle it thinks up all it needs to do is have the Finance Minister declare a fix as urgent and $120mil or more magically appears to give the middle finger to the Parliament.

    And once again Shorten has played a blinder. He’s made his point that the whole exercise is a sham and wrong, but his fingerprints aren’t on the blade that will kill it. He’s moved on from that and is out of the gate on the front foot saying if this rotten fraud is going to go ahead I’m damn well going to lead the fight and stand firmly on the right side of history. Whatever happens his conviction will be remembered to his benefit.

    When it goes down the only one to wear the blame will be Trumble again. Not only is he too weak to simply bring on a bill, but he’s too stupid and incompetent to come up with a workable work around. He’s been nailing his mast to this ‘people’s say’ palaver for two years now. He’s been the public face pushing the plebiscite idea. When it dies in the HC everyone will know who owns the failure. Just another Trumble brainfart that died a death. Throw it on the pile with all the others.

  6. Barney in Go Dau @ #142 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:53 am

    What could be counterproductive about such a show of bipartisan leadership?

    The only negative in such an act would be discontent with it by some within his own Party.

    It just reinforces the idea that Turnbull is all about “Malcolm first.”

    F@#% the principles, this could personally hurt me.

    Yep. counterproductive to Trumble’s efforts to still be PM next week. After all what else is more important?

  7. Mr Turnbull said it could be “counter-productive” to co-sign a letter with Mr Shorten.

    Counter-productive for Turnbull’s chances of remaining leader of the Liberal Party.

    Turnbull has got to the point that nothing is more important to him than that.

    He has become a pathetic figure.

  8. Barney in Go Dau

    I’m fine.

    I had the pleasure of watching on IView “The Farthest” about the outer planets exploration.

    One comment was that the Voyager spacecraft may eventually be all that remains of our “civilization”.

    So, thought I, those among us who love this kind of thing, had better get in , while there is till time, to treat others like garbage and engage in wars and culture denigration.

    However, the upside of the morning was – I was singing and playing “A Single Yellow Rose” when the postie arrived. I have a new fan. Very interesting gentleman.

    And so to fresh coffee and salad rolls.

    Be kind to yourself, mon ami.

    ☮ ❤

  9. The MSM has really changed it’s tune over the last few days.

    Recently (past few months), they have been willing to go out on a limb and point out some of Turnbull’s flaws. They then walk in back by saying that we will soon see the real Malcolm, or that Shorten is the same/unpopular.

    Mark Kenny’s latest is scathing of Turnbull, and compliments Shorten.

    In any event, it makes him look equivocal meaning a ‘yes’ vote would be more clearly a win for Shorten. In perhaps his single best speech as Labor leader on Thursday, Shorten announced he would campaign strongly for reform and urged others to do so as he scythed into Turnbull’s fog, declaring him weak, unprincipled, and hostage to party room ideologues.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/this-speech-was-one-of-the-biggest-moments-in-bill-shortens-path-to-the-lodge-20170810-gxtj2c.html

  10. KayJay
    “I had the pleasure of watching on IView “The Farthest” about the outer planets exploration.”

    I thought it was brilliant. Reminded me what a huge scientific achievement Voyager was, and the great minds behind it.

  11. briefly @ #156 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:16 am

    It will b fascinating to see the next round of polling.

    I’ve long surmised that we know the lower bounds of Trumble’s polling, but we’d get an opportunity to test them again. For reasons beyond my ken his fall off the netsat cliff flattened out in time for the last election and has stayed static since. There has certainly been no substantial reason for anyone to continue to have faith in the fraud. But still, a surprising large number of people have simply refused to let go of the idea that Trumble might one day stop being Trumble and be the fantasy figure they have constructed.

    So I could be utterly wrong, but I suspect there is a large cohort of people for whom it won’t take much to shatter their delusions about Brian. This could be the Utegate redux moment when only the most addled fail to see him for what he is. He is long past deserving of his netsats dropping like a stone again. His manifest weakness and failure and the contrast to Shorten on this issue is a good chance of being the final straw. The HC killing it almost certainly would be.

  12. This explains why SSM campaigners fear the boycott so much – from http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-10/why-are-some-marriage-equality-campaigners-boycotting-this-vote/8792090

    Same-sex marriage advocate Rodney Croome says a poll of 5,000 people found 15 per cent of the LBGTI community support a boycott

    This could bring the ‘yes’ vote down well below 50%. Of course, in my view it would be much better if everyone boycotted such a flawed concept, whether they would otherwise vote ‘yes’ or no’. But I can see why even the hint of a boycott is causing such angst.

  13. The proposal for a plebiscite came at first from Abbott. It is the worst bit of demagoguery. Abbott will be remembered as the most worthless, disgraceful excuse for an MP we’ve had the misfortune to endure.

  14. briefly

    We are almost deluged with opinion that the majority of voters are indifferent to what is happening in politics.

    The reaction of these indifferent voters to the barrage of for and against opinion aimed at them re’ the ME/SSM ‘plebiscite’ will be interesting.

    Are they going to wake up and say ‘How much f’king time have they wasted on this? What about some wage increase, some energy costs relief, etc.’.

    I think the polls may be quite different in 6-8 weeks time.

  15. It is being reported that 50k have already enrolled to vote since survey announced.

    This might become the biggest ‘own goal’ for the Libs yet. Not only on marriage equality, but also for the next election

  16. Porter making an announcement in Ardmidale a bit more ‘pork’ for Barbaby’s electorate.

    Barnaby standing behind him looking very tired … “I’m working endlessly for pork for my electorate”

  17. CTar1….I think most voters will be utterly appalled. I also think the opponents of ME have erred in giving Abbott a run. Abbott is pure poison. He really sickens people. He is trying to use the issue to lift his profile. People will see right through that. The anti ME is a lot more popular than Abbott…but not for long if remains a prominent voice.

  18. Voice Endeavour @ #173 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    @ P1 – That’s 15% of the LGBTIQ community, not 15% of yes voters.

    And with the majority of that community and the large community that supports them saying ‘fuck it, let’s jam it right up em with a huge yes turnout’ that number will decrease markedly.

    Or at least it would if this thing wasn’t going to get done in the HC.

    But jen is spot on. Massive own goal for the forces of stupid. One issue that engages an apathetic youth to come out and get active politically. Massive numbers of young people getting registered to vote and Shorten making a huge pitch to be their champion.

    We are governed by morons.

  19. @ a r – indeed he would say that. Of course, he would be incorrect as that is the number of people in same sex domestic relationships, not the number of LGBTIQ, which is about 3%

  20. Voice Endeavour @ #173 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    @ P1 – That’s 15% of the LGBTIQ community, not 15% of yes voters.

    I know. I was assuming the rest of the population will have an even higher percentage who won’t be voting. If that is only 30% (which actually seems optimistic) then only a full turnout of the queer community will get the ‘yes’ vote over 50%.

  21. briefly @ #177 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:42 am

    CTar1….I think most voters will be utterly appalled. I also think the opponents of ME have erred in giving Abbott a run. Abbott is pure poison. He really sickens people. He is trying to use the issue to lift his profile. People will see right through that. The anti ME is a lot more popular than Abbott…but not for long if remains a prominent voice.

    Similar to the point I made yesterday.

    We’ve had a taste of Abbott. It’s one of the strongest emetics known to man. The real hard core haterz will flock to him, but your more moderate ‘I’ve been brought up to feel a bit icky about gays, but they don’t really effect me’ types will see Abbott front and centre and think lets not go back to that idiot.

    Trumble could make a disaster for him into a slight victory by getting out and defeating Abbott in the field. But he won’t. And probably for the best. The only time Trumble has ever defeated Abbott was when Abbott defeated himself and lost to an empty chair first.

    So Shorten will pick up many of those put off by Abbott (and there is a lot of them).

  22. Ratsak – Yup, the Press Gallery have been deluding themselves for a long time that Brian Trumble has a brilliant long-term plan to wrestle control of the Liberal Party and guarantee us a golden future. After all, he’s a bweilliant man. He’s told us so many times. Now they’ve finally realised that was all bullshit because he’s just an empty suit.

  23. Briefly – Billy Hughes, who didn’t care how big the butcher’s bill was in France, will never be beaten as the worst, methinks.

  24. [Player One
    This explains why SSM campaigners fear the boycott so much – from http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-10/why-are-some-marriage-equality-campaigners-boycotting-this-vote/8792090

    Same-sex marriage advocate Rodney Croome says a poll of 5,000 people found 15 per cent of the LBGTI community support a boycott

    This could bring the ‘yes’ vote down well below 50%. Of course, in my view it would be much better if everyone boycotted such a flawed concept, whether they would otherwise vote ‘yes’ or no’. But I can see why even the hint of a boycott is causing such angst.]

    The LBGTI community and individuals have every right to vote or boycott this sham as it’s a direct insult towards them.

    However 15% is a small minority and the majority will vote ‘yes’.

    Non LGBTI supporters of ME should show their support by following the majority view of the LGBTI community and also vote “yes”.

    To not do so would be a direct insult to those they say they support and reduce the chances of a successful “yes” vote.

    P1, you have been outed on multiple occasions as a person who does not support equality on this issue so I read your last paragraph as disingenuous and an expression of hope which you reinforce by your advocacy of a boycott.

  25. The word that really irks them is EQUALITY.

    They’re whole existence, personal and political, is based on inequality.

    They can’t countenance that such inferior persons should be considered equal. Their whole salvation is based on there being greater sinners than they to whom the divine wrath they fear will be directed. It’s insane of course.

    If I was planning a campaign, it would a one worder – EQUALITY – with some pictorial symbolism behind it – joined hands, hearts, rings, rainbows, whatevs.

    No mention of marriage, no mention of same sex, just EQUALITY.

    And that what’s the young want. And that’s what will carry Labor to victory. On every issue.

  26. Ratsak @ 11.52…

    Emetic….excellent description…

    The extraodinary filthiness of the Libs will taint them for years. Their misjudgment and incompetence is really impossible to miss.

  27. The local bric-a-brac shop has a multi-coloured scarf discreetly placed among the items put on display outside the shop. It’s not precisely rainbow colours but the meaning won’t escape anyone who hasn’t just returned from Mars.

    I suspect this will become widespread – small gestures of solidarity.

    But what symbol will the “No” campaign adopt? A picture of Tony Abbott frowning?

  28. Barney in Go Dau @ #185 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 12:01 pm

    P1, you have been outed on multiple occasions as a person who does not support equality on this issue so I read your last paragraph as disingenuous and an expression of hope which you reinforce by your advocacy of a boycott.

    Of course I am advocating a boycott. That’s because I believe it is the correct response to such a disgracefully flawed process. This has nothing to whether or not I am pro- or anti- SSM, which is a separate subject (and one which I try not express an opinion on). If you want to believe that I am anti-SSM, and therefore you don’t have to consider my arguments, then you are free to do so.

    However, I will point out again that 30-40% of the population disagree with your views on SSM. It is those people you have to win over if you insist on participating in this ridiculous opinion poll.

  29. @Barney

    Only 15% at this stage – what, 2 days in? – is much better than I expected, and with the swell to YES driven by Wong, Bob Brown, Kirby (has he or hasn’t he) and things like that Tim Minchin video (my straight mate I sent it to just sent it off to his kids, who send ..) going viral, like the come home Pell video, I would suggest it’s looking very very good. I’m astounded actually at the strength movement of the YES so far.

    And the NO mob are as hamstrung by old technology and they are by their medieval ideas, like that ridiculous ‘I can’t call her my wife’ rubbish we say last night.

    How do they sample the community I wonder.

  30. BiDG

    Non LGBTI supporters of ME should show their support by following the majority view of the LGBTI community and also vote “yes”.

    Yes. I certainly be saying ‘Yes’ to ME/SSM at any chance I get.

    Player One is advocating “don’t vote”. For someone who has claimed they have little interest in the SSM/ME decision Player One has made what must be at least 50 posts on the subject in the last couple of days. What motivates Player One to graffiti PB with an opinion on a subject that they say they are indifferent to is mystifying.

  31. a r @ #176 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:41 am

    Voice Endeavour @ #173 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    @ P1 – That’s 15% of the LGBTIQ community, not 15% of yes voters.

    Or as GG would phrase it, 15% of 0.38% of the electorate. Which should be about 0.057% of the vote.

    it’s good that you are so keen to use my talking points and they have cut through. But, you’ve stuffed it up.

    The Census statistic I used was specifically for people in SS permanent relationships. Obviously, there are far more homosexuals overall living in Australia. Could be anything up to 2% in total.

  32. CTar1 @ #193 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 12:16 pm

    Player One is advocating “don’t vote”. For someone who has claimed they have little interest in the SSM/ME decision Player One has made what must be at least 50 posts on the subject in the last couple of days. What motivates Player One to graffiti PB with an opinion on a subject that they say they are indifferent to is mystifying.

    I am indifferent to the outcome, not the process. This is a psephological blog you idiot. Naturally we are interested in the processes of voting. If you are not, what are you doing here?

  33. briefly @ #196 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 12:20 pm

    PO….ModLib was very adroit with their dissembling. You are good too….maybe even better…

    Why do you feel the need to traduce someone simply because they have a different opinion on a topic?

    It does you no credit if you have so run out of ideas that you simply resort to baiingt and abuse. I thought you were much better than that.

  34. Player One

    Your usual abuse …

    This is a psephological blog you idiot. Naturally we are interested in the processes of voting.

    If you are interested in the process why are you consistently advocating boycotting the plebiscite thereby trying to effect the outcome.

    You don’t remind me at all of the departed ModLib. She could at least muster a carefully selected block of data, or at least thought through argument line for her planned disruption of discussion about ‘Insiders’ on Sunday mornings.

  35. antonbruckner11

    Briefly – Billy Hughes, who didn’t care how big the butcher’s bill was in France, will never be beaten as the worst, methinks.
    —————————————————–

    The historical parallel is interesting. Hughes was the last PM to try using a plebiscite to deal with party divisions. The result was that he split the Labor Party – and lost.

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