New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.
Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.
Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.
That it’s even a question shows the state of our state and federal politics at the moment.
The Liberal Parties ‘proud’ outcome of John Howard and Nick Minchin’s approach to politics.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-12/matthew-guy-survives-his-worst-week-as-opposition-leader/8799494
UK
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40897927
CTar1 @ #701 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:20 pm
It shines a hell of a spotlight on the Victorian Liberal Party.
What a spineless, valueless, duplicitous, immoral bunch of villains.
We should all be reassured that Trump has been thinking of a nuclear war for a long time.
No wonder HRC didn’t win the election.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40879868
Norwester
And in Federal Politics as well.
The fact that Bruce Billson was getting paid $75,000 dollars salary by a small business franchise lobby group while Minister for Small Business seems to have just been shrugged of as ‘they all do it’.
The Liberals morals are certainly flexible.
Just to keep the number of confrontation hot spots moving along –
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-idUSKBN1AR191
Trump renovating the White House …
http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/white-house-under-renovation-idUSRTS1BDE2
A golf course on the lawn next?
Bob Brown’s opinion on the survey;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/11/marriage-equality-postal-ballot-here-comes-a-yes-campaigner
CTar1
Norwester
And in Federal Politics as well.
The fact that Bruce Billson was getting paid $75,000 dollars salary by a small business franchise lobby group while Minister for Small Business seems to have just been shrugged of as ‘they all do it’.
The Liberals morals are certainly flexible.
****************************************
There is no such thing as ‘Liberals morals’…
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
Thanks for the Bob Brown opinion article.
Yep. My thinking also. No drawing ‘cocks’ and writing protest messages on the form. Just vote ‘Yes’.
China on NK/US
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/north-korea-china-urges-calm-from-united-states/8799242
Brandis would be right at home –
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40904552
NZ – Since Arden became Labour leader –
.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11902569
Kenya – Live from BBC World News –
The Electoral Commission has announced Uhuru Kenyatta the winner.
UK
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/terror-threat-uk-isis-alqaeda-former-head-mi5-attacks-threaten-britain-for-decades-generational-a7889156.html
New thread.