YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. As I scrolled up I just noticed that the YouGov poll is only 1005 — that’s a bluddy small sample … MOE????

    Not really. It’s pretty much what Newspoll used to have, back in the pre-Galaxy days when it was a live interview phone poll. Galaxy runs state-level polls with samples of 800 or 900 and no one loses an eye. The MoE is about 3%, but I’m of the view that you shouldn’t get too hung up on the MoE, or as it should properly be called, the theoretical MoE.

  2. The MoE is about 3%, but I’m of the view that you shouldn’t get too hung up on the MoE, or as it should properly be called, the theoretical MoE.

    Thanks WB, I like the theoretical MoE – gonna adopt this way of thinking now.

  3. So while a serious nuclear threat looms in our region, we are sidetracked by theological arguments against a reform that has majority support. Turnbull looks awfully weak right now.

  4. High fives to Kevin!

    Cuts through? Your inane drolleries are not even as memorable as P1’s strategic blunders. You’re about as likely to cut anything in a debate as pink fluff stolen from the Mardi Gras and glued to some small slowly rotating rubbery whirring thing.

  5. Morning all. I am a little perturbed by those who wish to see the ME survey fail in the high court and the government look embarrassed. They need to be careful not to make political pawns out of ME advocates or they themselves will be damaged. Base it on a principle, or risk looking unprincipled.

  6. Breaking News: Matthew Guy has admitted the Victorian Liberals have accepted money from the Australian mafia over many years in return for visas and political favours, and has resigned.
    Source: Fakebook News

    Just kidding. Matthew hopes this will all blow over after MacMillan is thrown under the bus. He has promised to crack down on investigative journalism when he becomes premier.

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