YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. I guess if it’s results remain stable then a bias will be able to be ascertained.

    But the volatility of the political situation is not likely to make this a short term thing.

  2. The single post didn’t work so I’ll go for instalments.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Apart from a few tepid contributions in The Australian I can’t find any support in the press for the postal plebiscite. Everywhere else pours scorn upon it.

    Mark Kenny continues to pile into a weak Malcolm Turnbull. He introduces the term “PIS” – party insisted surrender.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/strong-or-weaker-every-day-malcolm-turnbull-is-now-at-the-mercy-of-party-rule-20170808-gxro0g.html
    Peter Martin punches a lot of holes in the postal plebiscite. Have a look!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-it-gets-up-the-samesex-marriage-postal-plebiscite-could-break-the-abs-20170808-gxrmml.html
    Didn’t take long for the cockroaches to emerge. Mathew Knott reports that same-sex marriage opponents are planning an all-out campaign to achieve a “no” result in a postal plebiscite, including distributing leaflets claiming the children of gay and lesbian parents are more prone to “abuse and neglect”. Stand by for a barrage of vile bile.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/david-v-goliath-battle-samesex-marriage-opponents-mobilise-for-plebiscite-campaign-20170808-gxrybc.html
    John Birmingham starts by saying “If there was ever a doubt that Malcolm Turnbull is unfit to govern, the horror-clown circus of the past 24 hours settles the matter. This bumbling coward needs to remove himself from the public realm for all time.” And it goes downhill for Turnbull from there! MUST READ.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/blunt-instrument/even-abbott-would-be-a-better-pm-than-turnbull-on-samesex-marriage-20170807-gxrc30.html
    The strategy of the marriage equality opponents in the Coalition is to retain the conservative status quo at all costs, says Dr Martin Hirst.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-takes-a-dive-for-his-conservative-colleagues-on-marriage-equality,10588
    Michelle Grattan on Turnbull’s unconvincing “Me Tarzan!” performance.
    https://theconversation.com/marriage-equality-lobby-and-labor-must-decide-how-to-handle-postal-ballot-82223
    Laura Tingle describes it as an utter failure of politics. Google.
    /news/politics/a-122m-election-without-politicians-an-utter-failure-of-politics-20170808-gxrmo0
    Amy Remeikis goes to constitutional law professor George Williams to be told that the postal plebiscite is a “poorly constructed vote for which they don’t have the correct procedures”. It is likely to face a High Court challenge.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/postal-plebiscite-a-stretch-and-will-face-high-court-challenge-warn-experts-20170808-gxs029.html
    Leading pollster John Scales says he could run an opinion poll to accurately gauge public sentiment on same-sex marriage for $1 million, a fraction of the $122 million bill cost taxpayers face for the postal vote. Google.
    /news/stamping-out-trouble-pm-confident-gay-marriage-postal-vote-is-legal-20170808-gxrl77

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Today host Karl Stefanovic has unleashed a blistering attack on the Turnbull government’s continued fumbling over legalising same-sex marriage, telling politicians in Canberra to “pull your finger out… and get on with it.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/complete-bs-todays-karl-stefanovic-unleashes-on-gay-marriage-plebiscite-20170807-gxre0q.html
    Australia’s former top statistician says the Bureau of Statistics should not carry out the same-sex marriage postal vote, labelling it a “bad look” and he doubts it is invested with the authority to conduct it.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/08/marriage-postal-vote-abs/
    Tony Wright says “Malcolm Turnbull makes his case, believing it or not”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-makes-his-case-believing-it-or-not-20170808-gxrpha.html
    Paul Bongiorno opines that gay marriage an insoluble political morass for the government.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/07/gay-marriage-political-morass-government/
    Michael Koziol says the postal plebiscite is fraught with danger and doubts over legitimacy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-risks-court-battle-and-legitimacy-doubts-with-gay-marriage-postal-vote-20170808-gxrrej.html
    This Uniting Church minister explains why she changed her mind on SSM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-i-changed-my-mind-on-marriage-equality-20170808-gxrshz.html
    Liberal MP Andrew Lamming attempts to gold plate the turd.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/look-to-2019-if-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-votes-no-20170808-gxrhta.html
    The Victorian Liberal Party is investigating an influx of new members in the federal seat of Menzies, following extraordinary allegations raised by veteran conservative MP Kevin Andrews. The Victorian Liberal Party is quite an outfit is it not?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/victorian-liberals-probe-member-influx-after-allegations-by-mp-kevin-andrews-20170808-gxrss3.html
    This transport infrastructure funding proposition surely will create a backlash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/revealed-the-secret-16b-plan-to-fund-parramatta-light-rail-20170807-gxqsbc.html

  4. BBC Report (Also first story on ABC24)

    US President Donald Trump says North Korea “will be met with fire and fury” if it threatens the US.

    His comments came after a Washington Post report, citing US intelligence officials, said Pyongyang had produced a nuclear warhead small enough to fit inside its missiles.

    This would mean the North is developing nuclear weapons capable of striking the US at a much faster rate than expected.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40869319

  5. Section 3 . . .

    As Turnbull prepares to browbeat big electricity retailers in Canberra, the Greens have unveiled their own plans, calling for a price cap on soaring power bills.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/electricity-markets-have-failed-and-prices-should-be-reregulated-greens-say-20170808-gxrpb9.html
    Ross Gittins doesn’t think Turnbull will have much success with his summit with energy retailers today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-tiny-chance-of-keeping-energy-bills-under-control-20170808-gxrgft.html
    The point scoring and deal making with refugees’ lives is absurd.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/this-point-scoring-and-deal-making-with-our-lives-is-absurd-20170808-gxrix6.html
    Trump is the reigning king of American victimhood. He is unceasingly pained, injured, aggrieved. He’s America’s whiniest victim.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-americas-whiniest-victim-20170808-gxrtxx.html
    The cost-benefit analysis of moving the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority to Barnaby Joyce’s electorate of New England has some fundamental flaws. Among other things economic costs and benefits to be borne by its employees were not addressed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tractor-bans-computer-blackouts-other-ways-to-increase-armidale-jobs-20170808-gxrqui.html
    Australian Border Force’s chief medical officer Dr John Brayley was personally told about Hamed Shamshiripour’s deteriorating mental health more than a year ago, and said he would review his care and records.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/09/border-force-doctor-knew-of-manus-asylum-seekers-deteriorating-health-before-death
    North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturised nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, US intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-now-making-missileready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say-20170808-gxs55c.html
    How could anyone believe that Bilson was simply forgetful in failing to disclose a $75000 lobbying salary contemporaneous with his service as an MP?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/08/bruce-billson-failed-disclose-salary/
    The Greens believe they have the numbers to have One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts sent to the High Court, putting his political future in doubt. The Senate would be a better place without that dill.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-in-high-court-push-against-one-nation-senator-malcolm-roberts-20170808-gxrjur.html

  6. Section 4 . . .

    The Ibrahims. Such lovely people!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sarah-budge-girlfriend-of-john-ibrahim-arrested-over-firearms-offences-20170808-gxrxr8.html
    The Ibrahims’ problems started with a dinner in Dubai.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/nsw/sydney-police-raids-dinner-in-dubai-leads-to-major-organised-crime-raids-20170808-gxs2ow.html
    Figures provided to a parliamentary hearing have revealed the number of missed appointments by NBN in the 2016 calendar year doubled compared with the previous 12 months. Morrow continues to pour out the hollow excuses.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2017/08/08/nbn-missed-appointments/
    Unions have hit back at a renewed push by the Minerals Council to limit collective bargaining, arguing it would drive down wages and prevent workers bargaining for job security.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/09/unions-say-minerals-council-pushing-for-wages-cut-and-attacking-job-security
    Will these actions by the board of the CBA be too little too late?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-urged-to-go-further-than-bonus-cuts-over-laundering-scandal-20170808-gxro0j.html
    Michael Pascoe writes “The Commonwealth Bank is getting better at crisis management. Plenty of practice can do that for you. The board is no longer in complete denial, as it was through the Storm Financial and in-house financial planning scandals.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/practice-improving-cba-crisis-management-20170808-gxrwfl.html
    Adele Ferguson examines the expression of “confidence” in Ian Narev.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/confidence-in-cbas-ian-narev-is-a-hollow-cliche-20170808-gxrua4.html
    Gareth Hutchens reports that the embattled Commonwealth Bank chief executive, Ian Narev, will be forced to appear at the next round of bank hearings in Canberra, as his bank continues to reel from allegations of money laundering.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/08/commonwealth-bank-ceo-to-be-forced-to-appear-at-bank-hearings-following-scandal
    Ian Narev should go: CBA can’t spin its way out of money laundering crisis write Glenn Dyer and Bernard Keane.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/ian-narev-should-go-cba-cant-spin-its-way-out-of-money-laundering-crisis/

  7. Section 5 . . .

    Bill McKibbin writes about the Trump administration trying to airbrush the term “climate change” from official documents.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/shortcuts/2017/aug/08/in-god-we-trust-why-americans-wont-vote-in-an-atheist-president
    I wonder what will come out in the wash over the mobster lobster dinner that Matthew Gut had.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/will-fishy-whiff-of-lobster-dinner-wreck-toughoncrime-guys-premiership-push-20170808-gxrsqv.html
    Days after an explosion rocked a Minnesota mosque, President Donald Trump has yet to publicly offer his support to the community. A silence that speaks volumes!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/08/08/trumps-silence-on-minnesota-mosque-attack-speaks-volumes_a_23070019/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    The Greens could deal One Nation out of the media reform space, with the party tentatively returning to the negotiating table with the federal government writes Amy Remeikis.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-greens-could-deal-one-nation-out-of-media-reform-negotiations-20170808-gxrm8t.html
    Why Americans will not vote for an atheist president.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/shortcuts/2017/aug/08/in-god-we-trust-why-americans-wont-vote-in-an-atheist-president
    We need the voices of public servants in the political debate. Their free speech is in peril.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/08/we-need-the-voices-of-public-servants-in-the-political-debate-their-free-speech-is-in-peril

  8. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox outfits Turnbull for a SSM.

    John Shakespeare and Postman Mal.

    Turnbull’s dilemma.

    Mark David and Liberal party memory.

    Great work from David Pope with a special wedding invitation.

    Ron Tandberg at the lobster dinner.

    Paul Zanetti with the giving away of the groom. A ripper!

    Mark Knight with the white House leaks.

    David Rowe perfectly sums up what the postal plebiscite will come to.

    Andrew Dyson on electricity pricing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Ron Tandberg exposes the hypocrisy of the postal plebiscite.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Mark Knight launches the official stamp of the postal plebiscite.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7295705540407c177361a358ad7eec03?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka in the CBA executive washroom.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4e13fdfbb88d14c6b8ce645a4cf3076e

  9. BK

    How could anyone believe that Bilson was simply forgetful in failing to disclose a $75000 lobbying salary contemporaneous with his service as an MP?

    Billson is dumb enough for this to be true and to think it’s no big deal.

    Thick as ..

  10. Trump Crashes and Burns As 59% of Americans Consider His First 200 Days In Office A Failure

    A new CNN poll has found that Trump’s crash and burn as president is not getting past the American people, as 59% of respondents graded Trump’s first 200 days as a failure.

    People are noticing that Trump is incompetent, which is why in spite of all of the issues that can be used to attack the president, one of the most powerful by the time 2020 rolls around maybe an argument in favor of a return of decency and competency to the White House.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/08/trump-crashes-burns-59-americans-200-days-office-failure.html

  11. Trump Support Collapses As Rust Belt Voters Flee The Dumpster Fire Of A President

    The weakening of Trump’s base of support can be profoundly seen in the departure of Rust Belt white college educated voters away from the president. White college educated voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are all turning away from Trump

    The Rust Belt is leaving Trump, and if this trend continues, he’ll be a dead president walking by 2020.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/08/trump-support-collapses-rust-belt-voters-flee-dumpster-fire-president.html

  12. Trump Confirms Classified Intel and Tips Off N. Korea With One Brainless Retweet

    Trump confirmed intelligence that the US had picked up to North Korea by retweeting a Fox News story that contained leaked classified intelligence from an anonymous government official.

    Trump has no credibility but somehow continues to find new ways to sink even lower. The President Of The United States could very well start a war because he refuses to stop tweeting and start governing.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/08/trump-confirms-classified-intel-tips-n-korea-brainless-retweet.html

  13. Trump Threatens War With North Korea While Hanging Out In The Clubhouse Of His Golf Club

    President Trump managed to take a moment in between rounds of golf in New Jersey to threaten a potential World War III by launching a military attack on North Korea.

    This president doesn’t know what he is doing. He has no clue what he is talking about, and his reckless bluster just pushed the United States closer to a military conflict with North Korea.

    Trump managed to do all of this while hanging out in the clubhouse of his golf course on vacation.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/08/trump-threatens-war-north-korea-hanging-clubhouse-golf-club.html

  14. I can’t see a likely path to SSM by Christmas. The Senate has already made clear it’s position on a plebiscite continues to be Fuck That which means a HC challenge is inevitable. And given that there’ll very likely be an injunction and there’s no way the trial lasts under a month which pushes the Parliamentary vote past this year’s Sitting dates by any sane measure (and that’s assuming the HC doesn’t nuke the postal plebiscite which is quite possible. )

  15. BK

    distributing leaflets claiming the children of gay and lesbian parents are more prone to “abuse and neglect”.

    This is not a new idea from the anti brigade, but Malcolm still insists wtte ‘we can have a respectful debate’.
    Malcolm is, as usual, wrong and everyone knows it.

  16. ‘He’s narrating a video game’: Internet panics over Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ promise to N. Korea

    Immediately after President Donald Trump promised “fire and fury” to North Korea if they threaten the United States, Twitter lost it.

    “Can a Twitter war with a juvenile dictator-madman lead to a nuclear holocaust?” Huffington Post editor Howard Fineman tweeted.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/hes-narrating-a-video-game-internet-panics-over-trumps-fire-and-fury-promise-to-n-korea/

  17. Trump reportedly gets daily ‘propaganda document’

    Vice News reported Tuesday that Trump is fed documents each morning and afternoon assembled by White House and Republican National Committee (RNC) staffers that are collections of headlines seen as pleasing to the president—an attempt to soothe a man notorious for flying off the handle on social media in reaction to news coverage that displeases him. The only feedback ever given on the folder reportedly was that it needed to be even more positive.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/trump-reportedly-gets-daily-propaganda-document/

  18. Morning

    The feedback I have gleaned re the plebiscite from people out and about is total disgust..

    Main take out
    Legislate SSM already!
    Waste of money on opinion poll
    Totally unnecessary nasty debate which will be harmful
    And Turnbull is an embarrassing useless idiot

    Meanwhile Trump continues damaging on a bigger scale. When oh when is this f wit going to be removed from office!?

  19. Morning all. I see that the Victorian Liberals have promised to make organised crime great again! I’m sure that anything Eddie Obeid could do, Matthew Guy can do better!

    Unbelievable that Guy has not already resigned. His career sleeps with the fishes.

  20. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    John Schindler’s latest report is a good one. I will link it

    ********************************************

    THANKS Victoria – John is always a good read – knows how the spooks think and work …

    Trump is in full ‘wag the dog’ territory today …. just itching for a war – must be something really bad coming out in the US papers that he needs to go full blown distraction …

  21. Socrates @ #26 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 7:28 am

    Morning all. I see that the Victorian Liberals have promised to make organised crime great again! I’m sure that anything Eddie Obeid could do, Matthew Guy can do better!

    Unbelievable that Guy has not already resigned. His career sleeps with the fishes.

    Latest moves show he might be a dead duck!

  22. Over in Europe for a few weeks. Quite surprised by the independence of TV news and current affairs. Not at all afraid to criticise government. Big contrast with the MSM in Oz which almost seems like state sanctioned media in comparison.

  23. Good morning all,

    Turnbull has put himself under huge pressure once again in a attempt to be seen to be doing something.

    His electricity ” summit” is all froth and bubble and will have no effect on electricity prices. Turnbull is putting himself front and centre with a direct and or indirect promise to be the man to give households cheaper electricity. Stupid attempt at relevance that will end in another failure.

    Cheers.

  24. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Yep. Trump is in full wag the dog territory. Surely he could do the honourable thing and bloody resign!!

    ******************************************

    He would not be able to spell the word honour ….

    The sooner the whole nest of vipers – Trump & Family, Pence, Ryan , McConnell …… are behind bars can’t come soon enough

  25. Seymour Hersch reckons Rich was the leaker and I’ll take his word over Schindler. Unless of course Seymour is now part of “the vast conspiracy” ?

    > In the audiotape – which Hersh told me was made without his permission – he quoted an unnamed government source who told him that Rich offered the DNC emails to WikiLeaks in exchange for money.

    “What I know comes off an FBI report. Don’t ask me how. You can figure it out, I’ve been around a long time,” Hersh says on the tape. “I have somebody on the inside who will go and read a file for me. This person is unbelievably accurate and careful, he’s a very high-level guy and he’ll do a favor. You’re just going to have to trust me.”

    The FBI cyber unit got involved after the D.C. police were unable to access protected files on Rich’s computer, Hersh said. So the FBI “found what he’d done. He had submitted a series of documents, of emails. Some juicy emails from the DNC,” to Wikileaks, Hersh said.

    “He offered a sample, an extensive sample, you know I’m sure dozens of emails and said ‘I want money.’ Then later Wikileaks did get the password, he had a Dropbox, a protected Dropbox,” Hersh said.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2017/08/08/a-new-twist-in-seth-rich-murder-case/

  26. This is one of those things that makes the argument that majorotorian two party entrenchment in political systems is fucking stupid pretty self-evident.

  27. The Anti-SSM will be happy for all possible outcomes because pointlessly delaying this and being assholes to people they don’t like is there only goal and they have enough influence that a free vote isn’t going to happen without them getting to get their kicks in.

  28. GG, we can but hope. Yet it is not just Mr Wise Guy. Da Liberal Big Bosses are all named as involved. Kroger’s only reported concern was that the money trail not be found.

    And what does this say about corruption in the Victorian Liberal party if in office? Next time a mafia figure wants an Aussie visa will they just pay the Liberals? Next time an illegal wall blows over and kills three innocent people will the company just pay the Liberals to avoid jail? Next time a freeway toll deal is unviable will the consortium just pay the Liberals a few hundred k$ to get two billion of taxpayer funds tipped in? You can see the dangers if Matthew Bjelke Petersen is ever Premier.

  29. None of these people spoke up against their priests raping children.
    Yet they are so vehemently against two people in love getting married.
    I do not understand their moral values.

  30. victoria

    And Seymour Hersh is a nutjob then ? If I had to chose between Schindler and this guy this guy wins.

    Seymour Myron “Sy” Hersh (born April 8, 1937) is an American investigative journalist and political writer based in Washington, D.C. He is a longtime contributor to The New Yorker magazine on national security matters and has also written for the London Review of Books since 2013.[5][6]
    Hersh first gained recognition in 1969 for exposing the My Lai Massacre and its cover-up during the Vietnam War, for which he received the 1970 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. In 2004, he notably reported on the US military’s mistreatment of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison. He has also won two National Magazine Awards and five George Polk Awards. In 2004, he received the George Orwell Award.

  31. Good Morning

    Abbott on the news warning about “political correctness” about the PP.

    ================
    : ‘Rhinestone Cowboy’ singer Glen Campbell dies aged 81 after “a long and courageous battle” with Alzheimer’s disease

    bbc.in/2vCjum0 pic.twitter.com/3fEPWa0QZ2

  32. GG thanks for the link. Perhaps Guy can be charged with criminal abuse of Grange 🙂

    Have a good day all. Mr Andrews, please ask Victorian police to investigate current and past financial links between the mafia and Victorian Liberals, including whether they paid for a visa in the Howard era.

  33. barriecassidy: Abbott says if you don’t like political correctness then vote no to gay marriage. He wasn’t asked what pol correctness had to do with it.

    Mr Cassidy not happy with reporter gaggle lack of questions

  34. “JOSH FRYDENBERG
    Lower power bills will result from today’s meeting of energy retailers and the PM”

    So… a Liberal Govt will tell people how much to sell their product for. Fwarking socialist greenies must have taken them over.

    Bring Back our Tones!!!

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