Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. cc

    I’m thinking they’ll go for the crude measure, just electorate.

    The smarter they try to get the more likely a successful challenge is.

  2. Maybe it would be better if the labor party passed the Plebiscite in the senate and we would at least have people forced to vote and a better result than this postal rubbish. Or the independents !!!

  3. Is there footage of Matthew leaving the restaurant with a doggy bag? If it was me it’d be like yeah that whole crayfish and that unopened bottle – no, that one- and those thingys. But I obviously don’t share MG’s class. Just another meeting and meal with potential benefactors. Sad.

  4. cud
    If they wanted to do an opinion poll, they could do that a lot cheaper than $122m, and get a much more accurate result. It is not about a fair weighting but about skewing the result as much as possible. In the end it will only supply ammunition for further division, and delay the inevitable acceptance if marriage equality, because that is what it is designed to do.

  5. The Liberals are attempting to evade the requirement for an appropriation by the Parliament. This is an attempted repudiation of the Parliament and the Constitution. It is an attempt to rule in spite of the will of the Legislature rather than with its consent.

    The plan to hold a sham plebiscite is nothing but a contempt of the legislative process.

    I think the LNP will suffer very heavily for this. Who can trust them to govern according to the law? Who can trust them to exercise their duties? They have utterly disqualified themselves.

  6. Roger, I agree about a professional opinion poll.
    The question I’m asking is will this postal poll simply be a yes/no question or will the ABS attempt to make it scientific.

    I’d say if the ABS doesn’t attempt to make it scientific then the purpose of the exercise will be clear before its even posted out.

    On the other hand if the ABS does attempt to make it scientific, include matching questions and even weight the data at the end, that will also be contested and just create more cover for the usual suspects.

  7. briefly, you’d better bloody hope so because even if the poll is a train wreck that doesn’t matter to the bigots. All that matters to them is the idea that if you have a big enough campaign you can wreck the whole issue.

  8. Well it looks like the current federal government has chosen the cross they’d like to be crucified on and I for one couldn’t be happier for them or our country. Let’s see how the two possible outcomes play out. The LNP try every dirty trick and tactic they can to engineer a no result in the postal vote, the postal vote is seen as illegitimate and Labor solidifies support in the upcoming election. The postal vote comes out as a yes and the LNP have a free-vote in which they reject marriage equality (more likely) and are accused of wasting peoples time and money and not enacting the will of the people. Either way, the LNP is doomed and about time too, good riddance.

    This was Shortens long-game ever since he took over as party leader and it seems to be paying off in a big way. He deserves to be congratulated.

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