Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. ItzaDream

    Looks like anywhere that Murdoch’s cable interests are significant broadband is inadequate.

    Most notably here, where Abbott did his bidding

    Yup..he is the greatest rent-seeker in Australian commercial history.

  4. briefly @ #650 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 8:37 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/aug/08/nhs-maternity-wards-england-forced-closures-labour

    The Tories underfund maternal and neo natal health care….unbelievable.

    Anyone better than I able to interpret this ~

    The Department of Health said: “Patients should be reassured we continue to have enough midwives in the NHS. Temporary closures in NHS maternity units are well rehearsed safety measures which we expect trusts to use to safely manage peaks in admissions.

  6. Anyone better than I able to interpret this ~

    The Department of Health said: “Patients should be reassured we continue to have enough midwives in the NHS. Temporary closures in NHS maternity units are well rehearsed safety measures which we expect trusts to use to safely manage peaks in admissions.
    **************************************************************************************
    Management speak for ‘we haven’t got the first idea what we are doing’….

  7. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
    First Dog on the Moon succinctly summarises this pathetic debacle…

    They deserve to be forever reviled…

  9. So, for the next two months or more, Malcolm is going to have to hide in plain sight on the SSM issue. Not a very good look at all for a PM, methinks.

  10. antonbruckner11
    So, for the next two months or more, Malcolm is going to have to hide in plain sight on the SSM issue. Not a very good look at all for a PM, methinks.

    He will have appeased his RW only to debauch himself in the eyes of voters.

  11. http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/us-navy-tests-worlds-first-drone-killing-laser-weapons-system/

    Lasers are primarily intended for short-range defense (one to five miles) against aircraft, drones, and small boats. Second-generation laser weapons systems are currently under development intended to take on faster targets such as incoming ballistic missiles.

    During previous tests, lasers have taken out cruise missiles, mortars and other projectiles, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.

    The $40 million weapons system requires a crew of three and a supply of electricity (generated from its own small generator) to operate. The 30-kilowatt, laser weapon, installed aboard the USS Ponce already in 2014, is extremely accurate and can be scaled depending on the target.

    “I can aim that at any particular spot on a target, and disable and destroy as necessary,” said the commanding officer of the USS Ponce, Captain Christopher Wells. “It reduces collateral damage — I no longer have to worry about rounds that may go beyond the target and potentially hurt or damage things that I don’t want to hurt or damage.”

    “It is more precise than a bullet,” Wells added. “It’s not a niche weapon system like some other weapons that we have throughout the military where it’s only good against air contacts, or it’s only good against surface targets, or it’s only good against, you know, ground-based targets — in this case this is a very versatile weapon, it can be used against a variety of targets.”

    Unlike a traditional gun, a laser never runs out of bullets given that it has an infinite magazine as long as it is connected to a power source. Furthermore, in comparison to missile-based defensive systems firing a laser is cheap. “It’s about a dollar a shot,” according to Hughes. The SM-6, the U.S. Navy’s latest missile interceptor designed to engage the most advanced anti-ship cruise missiles, comes in at around $4 million per shot.

  13. So, for the next two months or more, Malcolm is going to have to hide in plain sight on the SSM issue. Not a very good look at all for a PM, methinks.

    Is there anyone out there still expecting Turnbull to have credibility when it comes to these kinds of social issues?

  15. What could possibly go wrong

    Professor Williams, head of law at the University of NSW, said from what he had seen of the proposal, “there is a lack of visible legislative support for paying the money to enable the postal vote” and he expected the government had an upcoming date with the High Court.

    Paul Kildea, a senior lecturer at UNSW Law and Director of the Referendums Project, said on the face of what had been put forward “an appropriation to the ABS could be challenged on the basis that the expenditure was not ‘unforeseen'”.

    Anne Toomey, a constitutional law expert from the Sydney University Law School was “highly skeptical” of the government’s plan

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/postal-plebiscite-a-stretch-and-will-face-high-court-challenge-warn-experts-20170808-gxs029.html

  16. Professor Williams, head of law at the University of NSW, said from what he had seen of the proposal, “there is a lack of visible legislative support for paying the money to enable the postal vote” and he expected the government had an upcoming date with the High Court.

    What is the role of the AEC in this postal plebiscite?

  17. confessions @ #664 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 9:19 pm

    Professor Williams, head of law at the University of NSW, said from what he had seen of the proposal, “there is a lack of visible legislative support for paying the money to enable the postal vote” and he expected the government had an upcoming date with the High Court.

    What is the role of the AEC in this postal plebiscite?

    The AEC will be aiding the ABS in the conduct and implementation of the postal plebiscite.

  20. All I know is that the federal government of Malcolm Turnbull have degraded the LGBTQI community to the level of a popularity contest for the national song. Because that’s the last time a postal vote was used.

  21. C@tmomma @ #670 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 9:23 pm

    confessions @ #664 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 9:19 pm

    Professor Williams, head of law at the University of NSW, said from what he had seen of the proposal, “there is a lack of visible legislative support for paying the money to enable the postal vote” and he expected the government had an upcoming date with the High Court.

    What is the role of the AEC in this postal plebiscite?

    The AEC will be aiding the ABS in the conduct and implementation of the postal plebiscite.

    Yes. And the whole thing shaping up to be another complete balls-up ~ how it could break the ABS, and why they need the AEC but can’t use them:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-it-gets-up-the-samesex-marriage-postal-plebiscite-could-break-the-abs-20170808-gxrmml.html

  24. Itza,
    We, the taxpayers are being asked to foot the bill for Malcolm Turnbull’s lack of authority over the government he supposedly controls.

    Even as, at one and the same time, we all know that the recalcitrants in the government will not respect the will of the people after the results of the postal plebiscite are in if they feel like it.

    It’s going to be high farce from go to woe.

  25. C@tmomma @ #677 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 9:45 pm

    Itza,
    We, the taxpayers are being asked to foot the bill for Malcolm Turnbull’s lack of authority over the government he supposedly controls.

    Even as, at one and the same time, we all know that the recalcitrants in the government will not respect the will of the people after the results of the postal plebiscite are in if they feel like it.

    It’s going to be high farce from go to woe.

    An extravagant charade by the self proclaimed fiscally responsible.

  28. An extravagant charade by the self proclaimed fiscally responsible.

    Yep, funny that, how the BUDGET EMERGENCY! has become Budget meh!

  29. <blockquote.C@tmomma

    We, the taxpayers are being asked to foot the bill for Malcolm Turnbull’s lack of authority over the government he supposedly controls.
    On the other hand it is an absolute bargain compared to the bill Truffles has given the taxpayers for his Fraudband, all done in the name of getting his arske on the throne.

  31. If the Parliament refuses to authorize a plebiscite the LNP will then hold a sham plebiscite anyway….amazing.

    That is the most extraordinarily brazen contempt of the Parliament and the Constitution yet seen. It is a repudiation of the Parliament. It is a contempt of the voters’ expression at the last election.

    This reeks of 1975. The LNP will break every convention. Nothing is too cynical for the LNP.

    They are totally unfit to hold power.

  32. poroti,
    Which is as nothing compared to the cost to the Earth from Turnbull selling out his Climate Change/Global Warming principles.

  33. Briefly,
    What is truly amazing is that the federal government are undertaking these actions as if THEY are the ones on 54 in the polls and not the ones on 46! So brazen!

  34. The chutzpah is amazing to behold. They send the debt collectors and the put the AFP onto a Welfare recipient who owes the government a few sheckels but see no hypocrisy in their decision to spend $122 Million of taxpayers’ money on a sham Same Sex Marriage ‘plebiscite’.

  40. The snail mail plebiscite looks designed to reduce a 60+% majority to a more 50-50 proposition based on likely demographic response. The lower the overall response the more chance for the fundies to pull off a stunning victory.

    I see it as a deliberate move towards optional voting. One way or another there will also be an advertising barrage – especially of the cashed-up views.

    These people are not fit to govern.

  43. Will using the ABS for the SSM postal plebiscite enable government members of parliament to be provided with results that show the yes/no result for their electorate/state?

  44. Mathew Guy following along the Liberal traditions with verve –

    Fairfax Media and Four Corners revealed that the Opposition Leader dined with Mr Madafferi and three of his relatives over several bottles of Penfolds Grange at the Beaumaris restaurant, and discussed the location of the Melbourne wholesale fruit and vegetable market. All four men are Liberal Party donors.

    Mr Madafferi has been the subject of intense police scrutiny over a number of years.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-08/matthew-guy-alleged-mafia-head-dinner-phone-call/8785700

    Surely he is stuffed.

  45. Excellent point CTar1.

    The only way they could do that would be to code the ballot papers with the electorate.

    That would provide a huge extra burden when counting unless the process was fully automated.

  46. Norwester

    One way or another there will also be an advertising barrage – especially of the cashed-up views.

    The Australian Christian Lobby will be right into it.

  47. If they unleash a hate campaign, Malcolm Turnbull and his bigoted and gutless mates are going to own every relevant suicide and hate crime. Dreadful lack of leadership in an increasingly unequal society.

  48. BiGD

    The only way they could do that would be to code the ballot papers with the electorate.

    That would provide a huge extra burden when counting unless the process was fully automated.

    They do it with our census returns.

    And all that is required is one ‘marking’ that identifies the electorate the ‘vote’ form was posted to (no ID of individual needed).

  49. What I’m more concerned about is how they can gain a measure of how representative the sample is. To do this you need every form to be returned with information on age, gender and possibly a few other details. Otherwise you can never have an answer as to how selective the sample is or be able to do a fair weighting.

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