Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Poroti,

    There’s always today’s non extraordinary party room meeting to mull over the latest polls & mount a challenge.

  2. A good result for Labor, although the Guardian does it’s best to hide it in the depth of the article. In other survey findings, though, the electorate remain ignorant about issues like education funding and the real purpose of the plebiscite (mainly because of Australia’s appalling media).

  3. The figures on the trust rate changes and the fair work act are,interesting.
    There are businessmen and Liberal members who will only be happy with the full work choices regime.

  4. This will be today’s big news, Fairfax journo reporting this:

    “Greens announce Larissa Waters wants to return to the Senate now she has renounced her Canadian citizenship. Scott Ludlum not interested yet”

    And the Senatebhas to refer the 2 Greens, 1 Italian and 1 Pommy Bastard to the High Court. The PB is also going to table his ‘proof’ of making reasonable attempts to renounce his UK citizenship, which will make him a bigger laughing stock than he already is.

  5. ..contd…

    briefly
    bemused
    Yes, you can’t gaol a corporation.

    I’m going to try to change that in a certain sense. A corporate entity cannot be imprisoned but its assets can certainly be detained, its income requisitioned and the freedom to trade its securities can be suspended. That is a financial equivalent to imprisonment. I think it might catch on.

  6. …contd….

    briefly
    bemused

    Corporations ceased being under state decades ago and were brought under Commonwealth law. The Corporations Act 2001. Here http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca2001172/

    This Act is very extensive and mainly relates to the administration of companies and the operation of markets. It does not exempt corporations from State laws. Corporations have the status of legal persons and are subject to State laws like anyone else. So, for example, when Grocon was fined in relation to the deaths caused by the collapse of a wall in Melbourne, the law that applied was a Victorian law, and the court was a Victorian court:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-21/grocon-fined-250000-over-fatal-wall-collapse/5908292

    Have a look at CHAPTER 2D–Officers and employees for a start and inform yourself as to the duties of Directors and others and penalties that apply.

    And of course if individuals within a corporation commit a criminal offence they should be prosecuted under state or federal laws as appropriate.

    The trouble is that very few such charges are ever laid because of the evidentiary standards in criminal trials. This means, in fact, the laws are frequently without any practical effect in the case of corporations.

    I think this should be changed. To do so will require reform of a range of laws. The Law Reform Commission should be tasked with proposing reforms that will deliver effective equality before the law with respect to corporations and other legal persons.

  7. The sample 2 weeks ago that just fell off was a dud. It’s been 54-46 the whole time.

    Also, Essential questions on SSM to date have been hopeless. It will be interesting to see how these were worded.

  8. …contd….

    briefly
    Imagine what Grocon’s approach to public and worker safety would have been had the penalty for injuries or deaths on their sites included a term of “custodial administration”. Grocon’s shareholders and lenders would be vitally interested in their compliance with the safety laws.

  9. Important to note the ALP polling has held up while they have announced revenue raising measures and started talking about the republic, which is supposed to be a vote loser these days, which is why Turnbull runs a mile from it.

  10. Sohar
    I’d have though a primary gap of 39-34 to Labor would produce a bigger lead than 54-46.

    39+34=73

    There would be 27% of the PV going to other parties, which split 15/12, Lab/Lib. Sounds about right…

  11. Socrates @ #6 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:38 am

    Funny how they have so much trouble dealing with both gay and straight people. They have no problem dealing with crooked and straight people.

    I guess we will not see change on ME until a wealthy gay man donates a large amount of cash to the Liberal party.

    Very wise. 🙂

  12. We know that Labor is doing very well in Federal polls for lower house seats, and has done for some time.

    Is there any way of translating that to a breakdown of possible senate results?

  13. Question
    Important to note the ALP polling has held up while they have announced revenue raising measures and started talking about the republic, which is supposed to be a vote loser these days, which is why Turnbull runs a mile from it.

    I think tax reform is a vote-shifter. No doubt about that…Labor are on a winner with that. I doubt the republic proposal would arouse many voters….at least, not yet. Very few will even be aware of (or have already forgotten) Labor’s announcement. Turnbull is cautious because of the strength of Monarchist numbers in the Liberal Party.

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Matthew Guy has been sprung in a big way for dining with an alleged mobster boss.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/matthew-and-madafferi-opposition-leader-matthew-guy-dined-with-alleged-mobster-20170807-gxqsoc.html
    Mark Kenny says that instead of progress however, it has achieved little, merely kicking the can down the road, while underlining Malcolm Turnbull’s authority deficit, and highlighting his well-recognised authenticity problem. The quintessential damp squib.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/samesex-marriage-same-problem-malcolm-turnbull-fails-to-resolve-crisis-20170807-gxr814.html
    Michelle Grattan writes that having lit the match that fired same-sex marriage back onto the government’s immediate agenda, the five Liberal rebels have left Malcolm Turnbull with a dangerously smouldering issue that will burn on for months. And now they’re heading for a messy battle on energy policy she concludes.
    https://theconversation.com/same-sex-marriage-reform-heads-for-the-snail-mail-82183
    Peter FitzSimons asks how the Liberal Party got itself into such a mess . A really good read!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-how-did-the-liberal-party-get-into-such-a-mess-20170807-gxqpji.html
    Michael Koziol asks “What next” after yesterday’s SSM “emergency meeting”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-kills-samesex-marriage-conscience-vote-agrees-to-postal-plebiscite-20170807-gxqzam.html
    The Australian Christian Lobby is threatening to take the unprecedented step of campaigning against a Coalition government, warning Liberal MPs that it could direct members to support minor ¬right-wing parties if a free vote on gay marriage is allowed in parliament. A good example of how dirty this dirty mob would behave leading up to a plebiscite. Google.
    /national-affairs/australian-christian-lobby-threat-to-campaign-against-coalition/news-story/410e8a93d31f3311872003163f9c60b8
    Dealing with homelessness by punitive means costs taxpayers far more than efforts to increase the supply of affordable housing and supported accommodation writes Senator Doug Cameron.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/07/suspicion-moral-panic-punishment-empathy-for-homeless-people-is-a-choice
    Peter Hartcher draws parallels between Trump and Hanson from the responses in a recent focus group.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-time-bomb-in-the-australian-electorate-the-major-parties-cant-afford-to-ignore-20170807-gxqpqu.html
    Tony Wright goes to the focus group too and says that Derryn Hinch is the politician most admired.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-focus-groups-the-politician-who-voters-trust-the-most-20170807-gxqp4e.html
    But Greg Jericho tells us that a Grattan Institute paper suggests those who attribute nationalist parties’ rise to regional inequality are over-egging the case.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/aug/08/why-economic-anxiety-doesnt-explain-one-nation-and-the-far-rights-return
    The pressure is building within the CBA for some retributive action writes Clancy Yeates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-board-must-hold-executives-to-account-shareholders-20170807-gxr0pb.html
    Staff at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have been told to avoid using the term climate change in their work, with the officials instructed to reference “weather extremes” instead. How pathetic!
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/07/usda-climate-change-language-censorship-emails
    Tax lawyers, accountants and fin¬ancial planners have attacked the government’s changes to superannuation regulations, declaring it a “shemozzle” with widespread confusion about details affecting thousands of people. Google.
    /national-affairs/treasury/tax-experts-blast-turnbull-government-for-rushing-super-changes/news-story/c15c48e2f8b3ac9c5186fdaa3414a0a9
    Sarah Gill writes that Turnbull’s Trump call would be entertaining if it wasn’t such a tragedy.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-trump-call-would-be-entertaining-if-it-wasnt-such-a-tragedy-20170807-gxqp9v.html
    Some rather disturbing information on the trajectory of the NRL.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/is-rugby-league-dying-the-numbers-that-should-concern-every-league-fan-20170807-gxr6uj.html
    New research to be released today shows sleep deprivation cost the economy an estimated $66.3 billion in health bills, lost productivity and wellbeing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/lack-of-sleep-is-costs-the-economy-more-than-66-million-20170807-gxqrew.html
    The federal government’s plans to tighten requirements to become an Australian citizen have been slammed by business groups who say their members are worried migrant workers awaiting permanent residency may leave Australia, rather than wait for citizenship.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/business-groups-slam-planned-changes-to-citizenship-20170807-gxqt6r.html
    Trump broke away from his summer vacation for a barrage of Twitter posts lashing out at the “Fake News” media and insisting that his political base was “getting stronger” despite investigations into possible collusion between Russia and his associates. Google.
    /business/media-and-marketing/publishing/president-donald-trump-interrupted-his-holiday-for-another-rant-v-the-media-20170807-gxrbs7
    Trump could be out of office within a year but the US’s problems could just be beginning!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/07/trump-out-in-year-usa-problems-just-beginning-paul-mason
    Here we go! The Minerals Council of Australia will on Tuesday unveil its industrial reform blueprint including proposals to suppress industrial action, limit areas covered by enterprise bargaining and expand the freedom to use contract labour.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/mining-industry-push-for-individual-work-agreements-20170807-gxqry2.html
    Mark Kenny says that Bill Shorten’s “inequality” pitch appeals to the neglected. vulnerable worker. He concludes that Shorten might not have all the answers but he’s doing a better job of hearing the question.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/bill-shortens-inequality-pitch-appeals-to-the-neglected-vulnerable-worker-20170803-gxop58.html
    Labor is opening a new battlefront on workplace relations with an ambitious plan to rewrite Fair Work laws to empower unions and strengthen the industrial umpire as a key plank of its fight against inequality. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/troy-bramston/labor-commits-to-rebuild-workers-bargaining-power/news-story/6c597be365a69a7901b2fd3a4b6ad679
    This solicitor working in the field explains how workers are so vulnerable.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/workers-are-vulnerable-in-the-vitual-workplace-20170806-gxqjqj.html
    Ben Eltham – “It’s the inequality, stupid”.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/08/07/its-the-inequality-stupid/
    Susie O’Brien writes that the date for Australia Day should be changed so we can ALL celebrate. Google.
    /news/opinion/susie-obrien/australia-day-should-be-moved-to-another-date-so-we-can-all-celebrate/news-story/5b998b119eaf51a707275165cdaa4ab7
    The RSL NSW is voluntarily suspending all fundraising activities such as raffles, barbecues and cake sales after the new leadership discovered that that some of its processes are illegal under the state’s charity laws. What next?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nsw-rsl-suspends-all-fundraising-following-legality-concerns-20170807-gxr1bj.html
    The beautiful Adelaide Hills food bowl is officially Australia’s most outstanding region. The coveted title was bestowed on the state’s treasured zone at the national delicious. Produce Awards on Monday night. Google.
    /thesourcesa/adelaide-hills-wins-nations-most-outstanding-region-in-delicious-producers-awards/news-story/fb3ebee508cd96f38d211fa2ad12e53f
    Interpol tracked Clive Palmer’s fugitive nephew Clive Mensink to Hong Kong in June, but Australian authorities have admitted their hands are tied until he chooses to return to Australia. Google.
    /news/nation/interpol-track-clive-mensink-to-hong-kong-australian-authorities-sit-back-until-he-returns/news-story/118a3c4c4564444b3c80c516fcf1ac02
    The public sector union and Labor have called a new social media guidance released by the Australian Public Service Commission on Monday “overreach”, warning government employees should be allowed to participate in normal democratic debate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/new-public-service-social-media-policy-is-overreach-union-boss-nadine-flood-20170806-gxqjyq.html
    Energy retailers were scrambling to find common ground on moves to help protect vulnerable customers from high electricity prices ahead of tomorrow’s meeting with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Canberra. Google.
    /news/politics/energy-retailers-look-for-common-ground-ahead-of-pms-energy-meeting-20170807-gxqows
    Turnbull may finally be realising that energy policy rather than renewables are to blame for soaring power costs but action is required,.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/is-turnbull-waking-up-to-the-political-reality-of-the-consumer-energy-rip-off,10585
    IN SPITE of clear evidence to the contrary, Malcolm Turnbull (again in his conversation to Donald Trump), Tony Abbott, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton have continued their spin about how they stopped the boats. They didn’t.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/turnbull-to-trump-weve-stopped-the-boats-another-lie-says-john-menadue/
    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Davidson on our disillusionment with mainstream politics.
    https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/x/r/4/t/6/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.gxqpqu.png/1502100156417.jpg
    A beautiful tribute to Betty Cuthbert from Mark Knight.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cae42377e74c7142e8ad0f04b697c0f6?width=1024
    Some cynicism from Cathy Wilcox.
    https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/x/r/8/j/4/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.gxqz5a.png/1502117181424.jpg
    Broelman on the SSM emergency meeting.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGldrf5UIAAY8hz.jpg
    A telling contribution from Paul Zanetti on Turnbull’s leadership.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGl27tKVwAAdONJ.jpg
    Something similar from Pat Clement.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9441177849d256e2f9b966296618b28d
    David Pope goes all the way in denouncing Dutton’s handling of the refugees on Manus Island.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Matt Golding and a weather report from Canberra.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGlGcAVUQAAsxiM.jpg
    Sean Leahy reckons it’s all over for this government!
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGlCtyvVYAANTI0.jpg
    And Leahy is unimpressed with Turnbull and the refugee swap.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGlB-8rUwAARkF4.jpg
    David Rowe takes us to some celebratory problems inside the government.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGnCROhUIAA7Jlu.jpg

  15. Breifly, just about all issues play well for the ALP and highlight LNP division these days. Much of the CPG confuse this with ‘luck’, but really the LNP didn’t spend their time in opposition wisely. They are incoherent.

  16. Morning all

    I can’t believe Matthew Guy would be stupid enough to socialise with a mafia boss. And a mafia boss he is. He was even the subject of a fourcorners report last year, and it is well known here in Melbourne.

  17. Question, Labor are relentless with their policy work…testing the sentiments of members at all levels, consulting outside the party, thinking things through and inviting contributions all the time. It is a permanent ideas harvesting process.

  18. Question

    They just outsourced their policy development to the IPA and went off on a jolly jape of Hi Vis vest stuntathons .

  19. Katharine Murphy strikes again. How does she keep her job?
    “Bill Shorten fared slightly worse with 35% approving of his performance as prime minister (down 1% from last month), and 42% disapproved (down 2%).”

  20. A coalition PV @ 34% suggests the Lib vote would be about 30%. This must be crash level for them and even lower results may lie ahead…Voters are abandoning the Liberals. Great. They thoroughly deserve it.

  21. Hmmmm
    Not surprised that Larissa wants back soon but Scott doesn’t. That’s what they’ve both telegraphed the whole time.

    I do wonder if Larissa will take ten opportunity to change states though. Her reelection prospects in Qld were dicey even as co-Deputy and are worse than that given 12 months to lose recognition and Bartlett (or whoever replaces him if the University thing makes him ineligible).

  22. Thanks BK,
    ‘Staff at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have been told to avoid using the term climate change in their work, with the officials instructed to reference “weather extremes” instead. How pathetic!’

    Climate Change was the term pushed by the GW Bush administration in preference to ‘Global Warming ‘

  23. Briefly,
    I was referring to the fact that Katharine Murphy thinks Bill Shorten is also prime minister. Most articles she writes have major mistakes.

  24. Hola Bludgers
    In the Cairns Botanic Gardens waiting for a guide to take me to the cryptic Papuan Frogmouths. Only 5 sandfly bites to date…
    Normally when I go away there is a leadership change but I see that the Libs are sticking to Turnbull like the proverbial to the bear.

  25. The ultimate betrayal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/08/minerals-council-lobbies-for-curbs-on-unions-powers-to-strike?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Unions’ powers to strike over the content of workplace agreements would be reduced under a renewed push to reform industrial laws in this term of parliament launched by the Minerals Council.

    The reform wishlist will likely spark a battle with the union movement, which has pressured Labor to champion increased collective bargaining rights as a means to combat inequality and argues the government has no mandate for industrial relations reform.

    Martin Ferguson, a former Labor cabinet minister and Australian Council of Trade Unions president who is currently the chairman of the advisory board to the Australian oil and gas industry association, will back the reforms in a speech to the Sydney Institute on Tuesday.

  26. Sohar
    Briefly,
    I was referring to the fact that Katharine Murphy thinks Bill Shorten is also prime minister. Most articles she writes have major mistakes.

    ….left out the word “alternative”…fair enough….I don’t read her often…

  27. lizzie

    Marn regularly came out with very “unhelpful’ comments when the ETS was first being proposed and Rudd + Truffles were negotiating a bipartisan agreement.The minerals mob must have ‘captured’ the then Minister Marn at least as far back as that.

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