Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning

    My internet has been out for two days so you missed a lot of cursing from me. I think it was affected by the Wolli Creek crane crash.

    My takeout from yesterday.

    Mr Turnbull is the Wizard of Oz.

    Lots of talk. No action.

    Appreciate members like Warren Entsch for pushing on. However I will wait to take my hat off to them for when they cross the floor.

    Great gift for Labor as the polls reflect from the last two weeks of focus on marriage equality.

  2. BrendanDonohoe7: Matthew Guy: I was told he was just “cousin Tony” ; didn’t know it was Tony Madafferi. pic.twitter.com/jD4h4GgHWT

  3. Thought yoused like to know that according to one Dan Teirnan on AM it’s all Shorten’s fault that the Trumble government is so hopeless.

    Needless to say, Bill didn’t get the right of reply.

  4. Socrates @ #6 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:38 am

    Funny how they have so much trouble dealing with both gay and straight people. They have no problem dealing with crooked and straight people.

    I guess we will not see change on ME until a wealthy gay man donates a large amount of cash to the Liberal party.

    Which got me thinking about rich gay men, and gay men in positions of influence. Alan Joyce for example. He spoke his mind, with Irish fire, and copped a blast from the RWNJs and a pie from some idiot.

    As for donations, I wonder if the entanglement of business interests with the Cons swings the allegiance of those gays (generic term, pace lesbians and other groups) to the right away from the trend to the left that social exclusion and restrictions and empathy with the oppressed would, you would posit, otherwise incubate.

    Paul Ramsay is one example, who was a big Liberal donor. I can think of a radio personality with influence who doesn’t let his sexuality get in the way of political affiliations.

    I think what I’m asking is does money and the making of it override all else, and is career still beholding to the closet, even today.

  5. sallyrugg: “This postal plebiscite is a colossal waste of money and time – the government should just hold a free vote” – Bill Shorten addresses media

  6. andrew_lund: Premier not biting on @MatthewGuyMP lobster dinner. But says he hasn’t shared bottles of Grange with gangsters #springst

  7. Dream

    I know a couple of gay/lesbian people who vote Liberal. For them the causes the Lib prosecute are the important issues for them. Marriage equalitybwas not something they ever really intended to happen so didnt bother with the fight for it.

  8. imacca @ #53 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 8:33 am

    doGs but Marn has sold his butt to the miners and the Libs big time. Very sad to see.

    Good Morning Bludgers : )

    I have heard that Martin Ferguson’s brother, Andrew Ferguson, doesn’t speak to him. I also think that his father, Jack Ferguson, must be rolling in his grave. What a disgrace to the Working Men and Women of this nation that man is!

  9. What is it with the Libs and the Madafferi family. Remember as per fourcorners, the lobbying done to the fed MPS for help To have Frank, brother of Tony, not being deported?

  10. TheTodayShow: “A non-binding, non-compulsory postal vote is complete BS.. Pull your fingers out in Canberra and get on with it..”- @karlstefanovic #9Today pic.twitter.com/DZOnfNZZyx

    Kudos also to Peter Van Onselen for yesterday labelling the bigots on air.

    Immense damage to the LNP here. They will not recover.

  11. markdreyfusQCMP: A good reminder on Parl House lawns this morning what this marriage equality debate is about – love. Thanks @NSWGLRL #getthisdone pic.twitter.com/7oijwsqtke

  12. Ides of March @ #63 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 8:40 am

    Dream

    I know a couple of gay/lesbian people who vote Liberal. For them the causes the Lib prosecute are the important issues for them. Marriage equalitybwas not something they ever really intended to happen so didn’t bother with the fight for it.

    Me too. I remember asking one of them why they voted Liberal when there was a long history of homophobia in the Liberal Party, right up until this day (because you have to say that actively working to frustrate SSM is a covert form of it), and I was told that Australia was tolerant enough for their liking and enough concessions had been made for gay couples and so, they voted for the party whose policies could best increase their wealth.

  13. MichaelMaley‏ @MichaelMaley7 8h8 hours ago
    Replying to @kevinbonham @mumbletwits
    I suspect that once the postal plebiscite is announced it won’t take long for someone to set up a vote buying/selling website.

  14. Victoria:

    I have a vague memory of Labor’s Kelvin Thompson caught up in a scandal over a letter of support for some Melbourne crime boss. Was it the same family?

  15. [adrian
    Thought yoused like to know that according to one Dan Teirnan on AM it’s all Shorten’s fault that the Trumble government is so hopeless.

    Needless to say, Bill didn’t get the right of reply.]

    He’s right.

    It’s called, being an effective Opposition.

    And he’s doing it not by just being negative but by leading the debate on issues and proposing alternative solutions to the problems.

  16. [Vogon Poet
    Narev has had his bonus cut to zero. Prefer some gaol time for him myself.]

    Cutting the bonus is just a PR stunt. He’ll still get his high salary and, when he departs, will quietly get the missing bonus as back pay in his golden handshake.

  17. victoria @ #70 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 8:47 am

    What is it with the Libs and the Madafferi family. Remember as per fourcorners, the lobbying done to the fed MPS for help To have Frank, brother of Tony, not being deported?

    What a pathetic excuse Matthew Guy came out with as well to defend himself, Madafferi didn’t make any donations to the Liberal Party and none were sought. Yeah but was a nod and a wink given to Madafferi about future Liberal Party policy decisions?

  18. Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 12h12 hours ago
    A plebiscite on whether to have a free vote in parliament. Just let that float around your thought orbit for a bit

  19. Surely no one takes a jot of notice of M’arn. Everyone knows his insides have been removed and stuffed with miners cash except for the cavity from his arse where they insert the arm to operate his mouth.

    The Right like to wheel him out as their pet tame unionist like a sideshow freak, but everyone knows the sideshow freaks aren’t really real.

  20. Matthew Guy on ABC now trying to get away with saying he didn’t know who Tony Madafferi was! How could you not in Victoria!?!

  21. I think everyone needs to remember letters of support can catch out people on all sides of political fences. Robinson in NSW gave a letter of support for the Lindt Siege guy. I dont think its really wise to go down that route without expecting blowback.

  22. Riffing off Jericho’s article, I have noticed a tendency on the part of commentators on my facebook page to blame various ills of society on ‘rednecks in the regions’ or ‘bogans in the outer suburbs’.

    Ironically, the same posters are decrying racism – which is symptomised by fear of the other, stereotyping, prejudice etc.

  23. C@t

    Exactly. How could you not. if Matthew Guy is so unaware of such things in his own city, he cannot possibly be leader of any thing

  24. Ides of March @ #63 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 8:40 am

    Dream

    I know a couple of gay/lesbian people who vote Liberal. For them the causes the Lib prosecute are the important issues for them. Marriage equalitybwas not something they ever really intended to happen so didnt bother with the fight for it.

    So do I (know …) Ides, and actually for me, SSM wouldn’t of itself make me change my vote if perish the thought I was aligned with the right. I don’t think SSM per se is much of a vote changer. It’s the sheer incompetence and piss weak leadership from Turnbull that is doing them in. And which is why I’m not in any big hurry to have SSM resolved, as well as wanting SSM ushered in on Labor’s watch anyway.

    (apologies for formatting fail of original post; looked ok on preview as far as I recall)

  25. Mandy was ever so helpful

    Amanda Vanstone, granted Mr Madafferi a visa in November 2005, despite his lengthy criminal record and police warnings he posed a risk to the community……….. Ms Vanstone has said her decision to give Frank Madafferi a visa was based on humanitarian grounds……………….Less than two years later, he was implicated in the world’s biggest ecstasy shipment and in 2008 he was arrested, and later jailed

  26. “I suspect that once the postal plebiscite is announced it won’t take long for someone to set up a vote buying/selling website.”

    Or…people steal the papers out of the letterbox and send them in.

  27. [guytaur
    They have not realised their wedge has died with the Turnbull Trump transcript followed by the latest death of a refugee in our prison camps.

    TomMcIlroy: Judith Sloan blames migrants for traffic congestion and house prices in Melbourne – wants Australia’s overseas migration intake cut. pic.twitter.com/hpb8iaDrXW

    https://twitter.com/tommcilroy/status/894688140685746178]

    They as part of the total population certainly contribute to these and other problems,

    but the blame can only be with past Governments who failed to maintain and upgrade infrastructure to cope with a population they knew was increasing and the rate at which it was increasing.

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