Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. @booleanbach

    Too many drunkin sailors in LNP to remember, it’s the ‘I cannot remember excuse’.

    Remember Abbott drinking bill when he became PM? And lots others..

  5. adrian
    I meant taken in by Briefly’s waffle.

    Of course one person’s waffle is another person’s erudite extrapolation of an argument or point.

    In Briefley’s case it is normally the latter, though I can understand that you may have missed it.

    Cheers, adrian. Equality is the theme these days…

    I’ve been thinking about ways to establish practical equality before the law – especially in penal jurisdictions – as between natural persons and corporate “legal personalities”. As things stand, even though corporations are nominally subject to the same set of laws as natural persons, in fact they are frequently in practice exempt from these laws. Despite the existence of a whole catalogue of laws and possible penalties – usually fines – corporations are seldom ever charged, let alone convicted, of such wrongs as stealing or fraud, or, as in the current case involving the CBA, money-laundering.

    In part, this is because the penalties that are available are designed with natural persons in mind. There are other factors too which also need to be considered. In any case, if we are going to establish practical equality before the law, we need to re-think the application of penal provisions to corporate personalities.

    As I suggested, I think it is possible to design a system that, for the want of another name I’ve called “custodial administration”, which would create a penalty or penalties that a court could impose on corporations convicted of serious offences…offences involving financial dishonesty, fraud, abuse of power (essentially, extortion), coercion, labour exploitation, reckless inattention leading to injury or death, environmental destruction…and other serious anti-social acts…the kinds of acts that would result in the imprisonment of natural persons.

    This is about redressing an otherwise intractable inequality and is intended to amend the behaviour of corporations. Really, it is also about recognising and responding to the lived experience we all have in a largely corporatised economy.

    I’m going to take this up with some colleagues and see how things unfold.

  10. Lizzie…

    The Constitution provides that a person who holds an office of profit under the crown will be ineligible to serve as an MP. Surely a similar provision should exist in relation to private “offices of profit” as well.

  15. I suspect that, unlike the census, there won’t be any real attempt made to chase up people who don’t receive one because they have moved, are on holiday, are now homeless and so on.

    After all, why bother when the results mean nothing to coalition MPs?

  17. confessions

    The four corners program touched on an issue that I’ve done a fair bit of research on. That’s mining and reclamation of old landfills. The program mentioned a “waste to energy” proposal in Eastern Creek. This isn’t about old landfill, its about new garbage. There’s also a distinction I want to make between two different processes.

    1. Mass burn, which is basically a big incinerator. Operates at 800-1000C. The issue isn’t the gases it generates which in modern plants is scrupulously cleaned. The issue is that it generates ash and that ash has to be land filled.

    2. Gasification and vitrification. What you do here is heat the fuel (waste) in a oxygen poor environment. It reduces to mostly carbon monoxide and hydrogen which is known as syngas. You can then use syngas as a fuel for a gas turbine (electricity) or as a feed stock for making fuels, plastics etc. In the process the ash is heated to such a temperature that it turns into a form of glass. That immobilises any heavy metals and it can be safely used for building material, road base etc. In the end you get nearly 100% recycling. Typically it happens at up to 1600C. Again it has very low emissions.

    Now on the four corners program it is mentioned that “waste to energy” plants are dirtier than coal fired power. Which is true. They emit more CO2 per unit of energy than coal. So, if you can instead reuse/recycle garbage its not a good idea to burn it to produce energy. However, the situation with landfill is different. If you leave it in the ground it will generate several times more CO2 equivalent (mostly methane) than if you dig it up, process it into gas and the use the gas to generate electricity.

    My point is the following. Given the legacy of landfill we ought to be mining and reclaiming it rather than letting it sit there and generate more CO2 equivalent. And if we are using some of that to generate electricity, we should be choosing this form of electricity over new coal fired power.

    I wonder if the Tomago aluminium guy whose currently running around campaigning for the government to build a new coal fired power station should instead be asking for a sophisticated landfill gasification and power plant.

  18. briefly:

    In essence we taxpayers are footing the bill for a plebiscite on whether to have a free vote in parliament.

    One could quite reasonably ask WTF?

  19. confessions
    briefly:

    In essence we taxpayers are footing the bill for a plebiscite on whether to have a free vote in parliament.

    One could quite reasonably ask WTF?

    Taxpayers will bear the $ cost. The LGBTQI community and their families and friends will bear the emotional cost. The LNP are thoroughly contemptible.

  20. [citizen
    I suspect that, unlike the census, there won’t be any real attempt made to chase up people who don’t receive one because they have moved, are on holiday, are now homeless and so on.

    After all, why bother when the results mean nothing to coalition MPs?]

    Sorry, “people who don’t receive one” should be “people who don’t receive a letter from ABS”.

  21. briefly:

    And in that video spray by PvO he rightly makes the point that conservatives are supposed to be about upholding our institutions. Yet the so-called conservatives in the Liberal party are prepared to mess with the tenets of our representative democracy, our parliament and its processes all because they don’t want to give equal rights to gay people.

    It isn’t Tim Wilson who should have his preselection threatened, but these dinosaurs!

  22. Just thinking ahead on the Malcolm Roberts situation.

    If he gets found ineligible to stand, the number 3 Divided Nation gets elected.

    If he then gets declared bankrupt I can see DN trying to bounce Roberts back in on the casual vacancy.

    Question.

    Could the Queensland Parliament reject Roberts’ nomination and ask DN for another name?

  23. In training for the real world of business and politics:

    The Scots College was forced to cancel one of its trial HSC exams on Tuesday morning after two papers were stolen in a late-night break-in hours before the exam was due to begin.

    The eastern suburbs boys’ school is under pressure to expel students if they are found to have been behind the heist, which saw two physics papers go missing from a storage cupboard in the school’s Bellevue Hill grounds on Monday night.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/education/scots-college-students-steal-hsc-trial-exam-papers-in-latenight-breakin-20170808-gxrk2n.html

  24. confessions
    briefly:

    And in that video spray by PvO he rightly makes the point that conservatives are supposed to be about upholding our institutions.

    The Crazy Branches want an opera. I feel like my family is about to be publicly molested. The LNP have disgraced themselves for all time…

  26. Barney

    QLD has a tradition of appointing a replacement Senator not to the liking of the party with the vacancy. Albert Field was appointed by Joh B-P, who said he was ‘a good Labor man’.

    So good in fact, he voted to block supply in 1975

    What goes around comes around. Anastacia should appoint Pauline’s sister no matter what PHON says.

  29. Thanks Confessions and KayJay. I should have just looked this up. Actually my friends still would have trouble as they bounce around a fair bit, so I guess this explains the advice they got. They are pensioners, no home, but with some assets so have no contact with charities. But do the truly homeless have an address, I wonder for this purpose? I suppose most still get mail somehow.

  30. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but isnt it that the state parliament only has to appoint someone of the same party? Ie the state if they wanted to be tricky could appoint some random party member?

  31. The Constitution requires an appointment of a Senator from the same party when filling a casual vacancy (not for recounts but the replacement of PHON’s 3rd on ticket from Qld will likely be a casual vacancy) as a result of 75. Labor has long since demonstrated that it’s perfectly valid to expel someone from membership to avoid an undesired appointment so Pauline’s sister ain’t getting appointed against PHON’s will.
    As a result state Governments do not generally turn down nominations by the party.

  32. Good evening all,

    I live in the great city of Brisbane so I have no idea what the back story is with regard to the Mafia story form Victoria apart from the much appreciated posts of Victoria, GG et al.

    I do not know if this has already been mentioned but it looks like Four Corners is right onto the story and a very interesting programme involving the liberals and organised crime may be on the way.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

  33. ‘fess,

    If it comes to a casual vacancy then the Party can choose who they want.

    That could be Hansen’s sister or anyone else they care to nominate.

    As far as recounts go they have only occurred when the elected candidate was found ineligible to stand or died prior to the election. Not sure if this one has occurred but that’s what the recount provision was created for.

    So for her to be elected the no.3 would need to be declared ineligible.

    There has been some talk regarding the no. 3 if he was declared bankrupt before a recount occurred.

    I’ve seen two versions of what the HC could decide;

    1. Exclude him from the recount, resulting in the election of Hanson’s sister,

    or

    2. Include him in the the recount and declare a casual vacancy if he is elected.

  35. Antony Green has said he’d have to been bankrupt at the time nominations closed (he wasn’t) for him to be ineligible. If he was ineligible now but eligible then it would be a casual vacancy.

  38. [Elaugaufein
    …
    As a result state Governments do not generally turn down nominations by the party.    ]

    But could they decline a Party nomination and ask for another name?

  39. [Elaugaufein
    Antony Green has said he’d have to been bankrupt at the time nominations closed (he wasn’t) for him to be ineligible. If he was ineligible now but eligible then it would be a casual vacancy.    ]

    I agree, to me that’s the logical way, treat the events in isolation, but I’m pretty sure it was Antony who also raised the other scenario.

    He was not advocating it but just pointing out there was some uncertainty in how the HC could rule if presented with this situation.

  41. “Penny Wong tell children of same sex parents ~ Know You Are Loved

    PW is a real source of strength.”

    Having seen Penny Wong and her partner with her child on a number of occasions, I can attest that is certainly true for her.

  43. Dutton’s english language test gives a native speaker a fail:

    An Irish veterinarian with degrees in history and politics has been unable to convince a machine she can speak English well enough to stay in Australia.

    Louise Kennedy is a native English speaker, has excellent grammar and a broad vocabulary. She holds two university degrees – both obtained in English – and has been working in Australia as an equine vet on a skilled worker visa for the past two years.

    But she is now scrambling for other visa options after a computer-based English test – scored by a machine – essentially handed her a fail in terms of convincing immigration officers she can fluently speak her own language.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/08/computer-says-no-irish-vet-fails-oral-english-test-needed-to-stay-in-australia

  44. Diogenes
    “Penny Wong tell children of same sex parents ~ Know You Are Loved

    PW is a real source of strength.”

    Having seen Penny Wong and her partner with her child on a number of occasions, I can attest that is certainly true for her.

    Yup…. I’ve met her several times and have a deep admiration for her…wise, clear, strong, clever in many ways…

  45. Barney
    They could but since the Party can just expel members until they one they desired was put forward the State Government would need a reason convincing to the Party for it not to result in a HC challenge and Constitutional Crisis. Unfortunately Malcom Roberts being a Looney Toon seeks to be regarded as a + by PHON so that’s unlikely to be convincing.

  46. Diogenes @ #642 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 8:18 pm

    Puffy
    I gather that the postal plebiscite wouldn’t allow any (taxpayer) money to be spent by either side.

    Not directly, no, but it could fairly be said it (the tax payer monies) facilitates and ignites the ‘spew of homophobic propaganda’ to which Penny Wong made reference.

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