Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Sohar
    “Malcolm Roberts would be a great loss to the Senate!” He’s certainly one of the finest minds on the conservative side of politics in this country.

    You are joking, right?

  3. Coalition sending the plebiscite back to the senate, if it gets rejected they have a double dissolution trigger and can call another election at their leisure(i believe)
    Imagine the irony, calling an early election (compulsory voting) so you can at a latter time have a non-binding, non-complying plebiscite on legislation that has widespread support in society, that most of your party members support in private, but have been convinced has to be delayed because of a promise make to get rid of an unpopular Prime Minister who ‘feels a bit intimidated’ by the people the legislation effects. The same ex-Prime Minster who said he wouldn’t be undermining the new leader like his nemesis did in the previous government, and whos ex-chief of staff expected the current Prime Minster to be gone by December.
    Thats how the transactional leader rolls…

  8. alias @ #504 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    Thanks for that link William. Interesting. I’m also struck by the long period of voting. I believe I heard the voting process starts Sept 12 and runs till mid November or something.

    I would predict that in the end those supporting SSM will mobilise, which may well involve them personally placing letters in Australia Post mail boxes on behalf of millennials who probably don’t even know where they are – or if they have seen them, what they are.

    Bemused: You’re showing your age rather. I would have been about 10 at the time but have no recollection. Do you think the telephone poll was done by a private company or the Government? Lost in the mists of time I suppose. Was it considered a fair way to get a reading on public opinion?

    Sorry, I really don’t recall the details of it, but not because I was too young, I just moved on and didn’t regard it as memorable once the ghastly alternative was defeated.

  10. My post seems to have disappeared (on my computer at least).

    Basically I was trying to contrast the heavy handed attitude of the NSW coalition government to the homeless people in Martin Place with Morrison having a friendly chat with the CEO of the bank that facilitated money laundering by drug runners and terrorists.

  11. Barney in Go Dau @ #506 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:04 pm

    [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #495 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 4:47 pm

    If they were exactly the same then they would share exactly the same name.

    I think I am beginning to understand why Australia does not have same sex marriage, and probably won’t for a while yet.]

    Let’s try this

    Women can ride on the public bus, but they must sit at the back.

    Is that equality?

    Some things can be equal but different.

    e.g. a brother and sister. She is not his brother, she is his sister, but they are both siblings and I would hope regarded as equal.

  14. [bemused
    …
    Some things can be equal but different.

    e.g. a brother and sister. She is not his brother, she is his sister, but they are both siblings and I would hope regarded as equal.]

    Unfortunately, not in all cultures.

  16. Player One

    One for DTT …

    Q: Why is Kim Jong-un more dangerous than Donald Trump?

    A: Kim Jong-un’s hands are big enough to press the nuclear button.

    ******************

    I have visions of Trump with the TV remote in one hand and the Nuclear Launch remote in the other and him pressing buttons – willy nilly – “Where the F*** is Sean Hannity and Fox News” – as 300 ICBM’s head off to Russia and North Korea

  17. John Reidy @ #510 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    If the plebiscite will be run by the ABS rather than the AEC, do they have access to the electoral roll?
    I know the ABS have extraordinary powers but does it include access to the electoral role for – for the purpose of sending (for some people) unsolicited mail?

    It used to be possible for anyone to buy a printed copy of the electoral roll for any electorate.
    More recently you could go to any AEC office and peruse the electoral roll on microfilm.
    And more recently again, you could look things up on a computer terminal.
    Now they are much more protective about it and you can only (supposedly) check your own details.

    All a result of over the top privacy legislation.

    Political parties all have access to the electoral roll for campaign purposes.

  22. Former Liberal minister Bruce Billson has apologised for failing to disclose he was collecting a salary from a powerful business lobby group while still a member of parliament.

    Key points:
    •Bruce Billson failed to notify Parliament he was collecting a salary from the Franchise Council of Australia while still an MP
    •He also failed to disclose he had been appointed a director of the group
    •Mr Billson, a former small business minister, retired from parliament at the 2016 election

    The retired member for the Victorian seat of Dunkley announced in March last year he was taking a job as executive director of the Franchise Council of Australia (FCA).

    However, he did not notify the parliament’s register of interests that he had begun receiving $75,000 salary in the job, months before he was due to retire from his seat.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-08/bruce-billson-sorry-for-not-disclosing-salary-from-lobby-group/8785174

  25. I can see the CBA hank executives penalties following precendent, think Choppergate or any other scandal.
    First those involved downplay the entire thing, then a token measure (like today).

    New evidence will be found, they will then delay, making things worse by doing nothing.
    The government will ‘act’, calling for an inquiry.

    Further evidence, possibly involving a coverup, or misleading authorities will the be revealed.
    Then suddenly they are gone, damaging not just themselves, but their allies.

  26. If ABS suffers the same woes with this postal plebiscite as they did with the 2016 census, it will be interesting to stand back and watch the fireworks.

    A value for money comparison:

    – 2016 census involving five years of planning and collection of vital data ($500 million being $470 m budgeted plus $30 m due to IT problems)

    – postal plebiscite $122 million++ because Turnbull is afraid of the RWNJs.

  30. citizen @ #559 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:12 pm

    My post seems to have disappeared (on my computer at least).

    Basically I was trying to contrast the heavy handed attitude of the NSW coalition government to the homeless people in Martin Place with Morrison having a friendly chat with the CEO of the bank that facilitated money laundering by drug runners and terrorists.

    It’s there, you just needed to scroll back in time a bit.

  31. Craig Emerson‏ @DrCraigEmerson · 2h2 hours ago

    Taxpayers forced to shell out $122m to settle an internal Liberal Party dispute on SSM. So return to surplus not that important after all.

  32. Barney in Go Dau @ #563 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    [bemused
    …
    Some things can be equal but different.

    e.g. a brother and sister. She is not his brother, she is his sister, but they are both siblings and I would hope regarded as equal.]

    Unfortunately, not in all cultures.

    We are not in ‘all cultures’, we are in Australia. But my point is made.

  33. Chris Kenny suing the Chaser must go down as one of the great own goals. Now he’s got his very own Kenny Awards with a statue of a Gold Dog. I wonder if he’s had his lawyers look at it. But what can they do?

  36. In addition Citizen, this is going to be a rush job, to a deadline, by the ABS, what could possibly go wrong?

    Re the electoral roll Bemused, I do recall it being available, but as you say it is generally not accessible.

    The ABS probably has access, to cross check their own data for example, but access might be restricted to specific purposes, for as you say ‘privacy’. They might need some enabling legislation.

  38. Friends of mine say they were advised they could not get on an electoral roll because they had no fixed address. I would think this is incorrect, but did not delve further. Can somebody advise, please?

  40. bemused
    citizen @ #559 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:12 pm

    My post seems to have disappeared (on my computer at least).

    Basically I was trying to contrast the heavy handed attitude of the NSW coalition government to the homeless people in Martin Place with Morrison having a friendly chat with the CEO of the bank that facilitated money laundering by drug runners and terrorists.

    It’s there, you just needed to scroll back in time a bit.

    I did that. Voila, the post has now reappeared.

  41. [bemused
    Barney in Go Dau @ #563 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    [bemused
    …
    Some things can be equal but different.

    e.g. a brother and sister. She is not his brother, she is his sister, but they are both siblings and I would hope regarded as equal.]

    Unfortunately, not in all cultures.

    We are not in ‘all cultures’, we are in Australia. But my point is made.]

    I agree in Australia, but my sphere of influence is a little wider and wasn’t trying to disparage your valid point. 🙂

  42. John Reidy @ #586 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:36 pm

    In addition Citizen, this is going to be a rush job, to a deadline, by the ABS, what could possibly go wrong?

    Re the electoral roll Bemused, I do recall it being available, but as you say it is generally not accessible.

    The ABS probably has access, to cross check their own data for example, but access might be restricted to specific purposes, for as you say ‘privacy’. They might need some enabling legislation.

    The only form in which you could actually obtain a copy was the printed ‘books’ which could be purchased readily from the AEC, I think from any local AEC offices.

    I have never known of a copy on computer media other than the one made available to MPS and political parties.

    It was damn handy for tracking down friends who had not notified you of their change of address and similar purposes.

    The Victorian Electoral Commission is a bit more permissive in letting an individual inspect the roll.

  43. From the SMH, on the CBA
    “On Tuesday, the board decided to throw the public a bone ahead of a record profit result with a statement that “Mr Narev retains the full confidence of the board”.

    ‘Confidence’ in CBA boss is a hollow cliche
    CBA boss Ian Narev will be hoping the move by the bank board to publicly back him isn’t consistent with recent examples.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/confidence-in-cbas-ian-narev-is-a-hollow-cliche-20170808-gxrua4.html?btis

  45. Watching the Drum I have to say that much as we pay out on K Murphy sometimes she makes sense. She calls the postal pleb for what it is, “a joke”.

  46. confessions

    Friends of mine say they were advised they could not get on an electoral roll because they had no fixed address.

    Read here for more info.
    http://www.aec.gov.au/enrol/

    I seem to remember from my homeless days that very often those without a fixed address often are assisted by the Salvation Army or Vinnies etc.

    😊

  48. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey makes a good point on SSM:

    The only people who want marriage equality to continue to make life difficult for the government are the far-right trio Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews, plus assorted hangers-on like Craig Kelly. They oppose marriage equality, but that’s entirely incidental to the more important goal of knocking off Malcolm Turnbull.

    And yet, remarkably, last night’s outcome was the single best way of ensuring the marriage equality will continue to occupy a prominent place on the political agenda. It would almost be impossible to craft a process that would be more likely to maximise the level of distraction and debate. Even simply declaring that there would be no action on marriage equality before the next election would have been a better outcome in terms of the impact on public debate.

    Yes this may have alienated the 7 moderates who wanted a vote, but a) they are vastly outnumbered within the partyroom, and anyway b) they rolled over in the end and accepted the outcome so it wouldn’t have mattered if their noses were put out of joint by Malcolm. How have the Libs so royally stuffed this up?

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