Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 11 of 15
1 … 10 11 12 … 15

  4. What he said:

    … it would contravene basic democratic values.

    He warned it would disenfranchise voters who were not at the address listed on the electoral roll, particularly young people and Aboriginal Australians in remote communities, as well as those who struggled with English.

    Among Mr Turnbull’s other concerns were voter fraud, peer pressure from family members and a high informal vote.

    “The voluntary postal voting method … flies in the face of Australian democratic values,”

    “It is likely to ensure that not only will a minority of Australians vote, but also that large sections of the community will be disfranchised

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scorching-malcolm-turnbull-quotes-resurface-as-push-for-samesex-marriage-postal-plebiscite-grows-20170802-gxnpn0.html

  5. Thanks for that link William. Interesting. I’m also struck by the long period of voting. I believe I heard the voting process starts Sept 12 and runs till mid November or something.

    I would predict that in the end those supporting SSM will mobilise, which may well involve them personally placing letters in Australia Post mail boxes on behalf of millennials who probably don’t even know where they are – or if they have seen them, what they are.

    Bemused: You’re showing your age rather. I would have been about 10 at the time but have no recollection. Do you think the telephone poll was done by a private company or the Government? Lost in the mists of time I suppose. Was it considered a fair way to get a reading on public opinion?

  6. ar

    Might as well add euthanasia to the ‘things to do a postal plebiscite on’

    ****************

    Treaty ?????????

    Anti – Dumping glass/rubbish in Qld ?????

  7. [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #495 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 4:47 pm

    If they were exactly the same then they would share exactly the same name.

    I think I am beginning to understand why Australia does not have same sex marriage, and probably won’t for a while yet.]

    Let’s try this

    Women can ride on the public bus, but they must sit at the back.

    Is that equality?

  10. P1 “I think I am beginning to understand why Australia does not have same sex marriage, and probably won’t for a while yet.”

    Yes because John Howard changed a few words in the marriage act and people like Abetz and co won’t change them back.

  11. If the plebiscite will be run by the ABS rather than the AEC, do they have access to the electoral roll?
    I know the ABS have extraordinary powers but does it include access to the electoral role for – for the purpose of sending (for some people) unsolicited mail?

  12. [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #507 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:04 pm

    Let’s try this

    Women can ride on the public bus, but they must sit at the back.

    Is that equality?

    This is not ‘exactly the same’, is it?]

    Yes,it is.

    In both cases you’re allowing full access to something but then dividing them from others with the same right.

  13. I’m trying to catch up, not having seen Four Corners.

    Glass is made up from silicone sand, no? A naturally occurring product which is everywhere.

    If glass is finely ground up and dumped in an unused mine or some such, what is the problem?

    I must have missed something.

  14. Barney in Go Dau @ #512 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    [In both cases you’re allowing full access to something but then dividing them from others with the same right.

    If I reserve the front seats on a bus for men only, that’s neither ‘full access’ nor ‘equality’, is it? A better example would be if I provided an equal number of buses for men only as for women only. That would be equality, wouldn’t it?

  16. [Gareth
    P1 “I think I am beginning to understand why Australia does not have same sex marriage, and probably won’t for a while yet.”

    Yes because John Howard changed a few words in the marriage act and people like Abetz and co won’t change them back.]

    Actually little Johnny did us some favours as he allowed the HC to confirm that Parliament can define marriage as it sees fit.

    At the same time his changes to the Marriage Act in defining marriage made no difference to their ruling in the ACT case.

  18. [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #512 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    [In both cases you’re allowing full access to something but then dividing them from others with the same right.

    If I reserve the front seats on a bus for men only, that’s neither ‘full access’ nor ‘equality’, is it? A better example would be if I provided an equal number of buses for men only as for women only. That would be equality, wouldn’t it?]

    Gee P1, I thought I was obvious.

    Ever heard of Rosa Parks?

  21. Gareth @ #510 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    P1 “I think I am beginning to understand why Australia does not have same sex marriage, and probably won’t for a while yet.”

    Yes because John Howard changed a few words in the marriage act and people like Abetz and co won’t change them back.

    Howard’s change is just as easily changed again. But by making this change he wedged his opponents … who are still fighting over whether they really want ‘marriage’, or ‘equality’.

  22. [alias
    AEC officials will be seconded to the ABS, the Government says.    ]

    Policy on the run.

    They don’t make things easy for themselves.

  26. Fulvio

    I think the point of the 4 Corners show was that it takes less energy to recycle glass than make new glass from sand and sand mining can be environmentally damaging.

  27. JOHN BOY

    So, Roberts is GONE??

    **************

    Gone Troppo – irrational behaviour of a person suffering from the effects of living in tropical heat. ….. but climate change, nah ….

  28. Shorten should come out and say now that regardless of what happens with the plebiscite Labor will revisit the subject of SSM immediately on winning government.

  30. Thaks, Mike, I was obviously looking at it from the opposite direction, ie that the “dumping” was the problem, not the waste of energy and mining damage.

  31. The plebiscite could be a blessing in disguise by encouraging young people and the left-leaning to register on the electoral roll. Karma!!!

  33. bk

    It wouldn’t surprise me if they’ve already supplied the the roll as it is today.

    No new enrolments, no changes of address.

    With the dodgy nature of the postal plebiscite what could stop them doing that?

  36. mikehilliard

    Fulvio

    I think the point of the 4 Corners show was that it takes less energy to recycle glass than make new glass from sand and sand mining can be environmentally damaging.

    *************

    The amounts are staggering too – Australia consumes about 1.36 million tonnes of glass packaging per year: wine and beer bottles, glass jars and containers.

    Glass consumption is at its highest in New South Wales, which produces about 460,000 tonnes of used glass per year.

  38. What’s the difference between Matthew Guy and Tony Madafferi?

    The crime organisation Madefferi belongs to is organised.

  39. What’s the difference between Matthew Guy and Tony Madafferi?

    The crime organisation Madefferi belongs to is organised.
    _____________________________________________
    ratsak
    That’s a cracker!

  43. If you’re a homeless person living in a tent in Martin Place, the Liberals do this to you:

    Determined to defy authority
    CHRIS KENNY
    Those of us who play by the rules and respect authority, wouldn’t get away with this sort of civil disobedience. We’d be taken to court. (Oz headline)

    If you’re the CEO of a large bank that facilitates money laundering by drug runners and terrorists, the Federal Treasurer rings you for a nice chat.

  44. I can just see the letters page equivalent in Trump’s new real news channel will be write ins by primary school children.

  45. BK
    Barney

    So Trump is launching REAL Fake News?

    **************

    ‘It’s not real and it’s not news’: Tapper rips former CNN colleague McEnany for joining Trump’s propaganda unit

    Noting a conservative website called the broadcast “propaganda, straight out of North Korea’s playbook,” Tapper lashed out McEnany’s new gig after sharing a clip.

    “It’s not real, it’s not news, and it is definitely not real news,” he summarized.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/its-not-real-and-its-not-news-tapper-rips-former-cnn-colleague-mcenany-for-joining-trumps-propaganda-unit/

  47. One for DTT …

    Q: Why is Kim Jong-un more dangerous than Donald Trump?

    A: Kim Jong-un’s hands are big enough to press the nuclear button.

  49. “Malcolm Roberts would be a great loss to the Senate!” He’s certainly one of the finest minds on the conservative side of politics in this country.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 11 of 15
1 … 10 11 12 … 15