YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. The biggest flaw I can see in the ‘voluntary’ vote system is the fact that many are unable to avail themselves of this ‘voluntaryness’ because they either have no fixed abode, are not serviced regularly by Aust post

    This is my issue because it applies to me. How do I get ballot papers if an attempt to send them to me fails?

  2. Question @ #1843 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:24 pm

    It will be a relief if the HC stops this before it starts.

    Absolutely! I’m a little worried that some of the SSM supporters who were initially disenchanted and saying they would boycott will by that time have got so keen on fighting for Yes that they will be deflated if it’s all called off. But mass “voting” on this isn’t the right way.

  3. Kevin Bonham @ #1846 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:28 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1841 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:23 pm

    So much bitterness! So many people that don’t care!

    No-one cares about your feeble cookie-cutter attempts while they have no substance to them and you are just making nonsense that you cannot possibly support.

    The difference is my prose cuts through and your turgid self indulgent monologues are glossed over and ignored thereafter.

    You might have something to say. But, you just can’t communicate can you?

  4. jenauthor
    Interesting about the silent electors. The biggest flaw I can see in the ‘voluntary’ vote system is the fact that many are unable to avail themselves of this ‘voluntaryness’ because they either have no fixed abode, are not serviced regularly by Aust post or are silent voters.

    This is discriminatory.
    *****************************************************************
    Or are overseas voters.

  5. KB

    ” I’m a little worried that some of the SSM supporters who were initially disenchanted and saying they would boycott will by that time have got so keen on fighting for Yes that they will be deflated if it’s all called off.”

    —————————————–

    They’ll get over it 🙂

  6. Greensborough Growler
    Kevin Bonham @ #1846 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:28 pm

    The difference is my prose cuts through and your turgid self indulgent monologues are glossed over and ignored thereafter.

    You might have something to say. But, you just can’t communicate can you?

    ooooohhh, I think KB has plenty to say and is in good command of the language, GG. He might post monologues, to which you append a snort.

  7. Even if the High Court rules against this purely partisan political waste of money the dogs have been unleashed now.

    Turnbull is about to lose all of any control he might have had of this.

  8. briefly @ #1859 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:38 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Kevin Bonham @ #1846 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:28 pm

    The difference is my prose cuts through and your turgid self indulgent monologues are glossed over and ignored thereafter.

    You might have something to say. But, you just can’t communicate can you?

    ooooohhh, I think KB has plenty to say and is in good command of the language, GG. He might post monologues, to which append a snort.

    A snort appendage sounds like something you get after blowing your nose!

  9. a r @ #1842 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:24 pm

    bemused @ #1758 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 10:13 pm

    Nope.
    ‘Partner’ is rubbish. Dancing partner? Business Partner? What?
    And it is not just a generational thing, my son refers to his wife as do others of his friendship group.

    Perhaps it’s regional then? All I know is that back in the States basically nobody used “partner” to refer to their spouse. Since coming to Queensland I feel like I get about a 60/40 split in favor of “partner” versus “husband”/”wife”. It’s awkward because my inclination is towards using “wife”.

    a r
    That’s interesting about Qld. In my (mostly Sydney professional) circles, partner is almost the universal expression in longterm homosexual relationships, and while becoming more common in heterosexual relationships – a bit ‘what we are is none of your business’, often second or third long relationships, and seen as a clean nonsexist non patriarchal term – it’s nothing like a 60/40 split.

    It’s the claim to ownership I find so offensive, as epitomised by that Vote NO posted earlier

  10. confessions @ #1809 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 10:52 pm

    Socrates:

    Progressives cannot be allowed to be baited and divided on this. The process isn’t perfect and it is far from ideal. But it is what it is, and if we truly want to see marriage equality we will engage with the process and push for a yes vote with all we’ve got.

    I am on a unity ticket with Confessions on this.

  11. confessions
    Jen:

    If you want your hashtag to take off you need to remove the fullstops.
    ******************************************************
    Do you? it seems #doyourjob was used in the USA last year but #DoYourJob seems to not have a Facebook page.

  12. Greensborough Growler @ #1854 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:34 pm

    The difference is my prose cuts through and your turgid self indulgent monologues are glossed over and ignored thereafter.

    Cuts through? Your inane drolleries are not even as memorable as P1’s strategic blunders. You’re about as likely to cut anything in a debate as pink fluff stolen from the Mardi Gras and glued to some small slowly rotating rubbery whirring thing.

  13. Kevin Bonham @ #1870 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1854 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:34 pm

    The difference is my prose cuts through and your turgid self indulgent monologues are glossed over and ignored thereafter.

    Cuts through? Your inane drolleries are not even as memorable as P1’s strategic blunders. You’re about as likely to cut anything in a debate as pink fluff stolen from the Mardi Gras and glued to some small slowly rotating rubbery whirring thing.

    You saw me!

  14. bemused @ #1866 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 9:48 pm

    confessions @ #1809 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 10:52 pm

    Socrates:

    Progressives cannot be allowed to be baited and divided on this. The process isn’t perfect and it is far from ideal. But it is what it is, and if we truly want to see marriage equality we will engage with the process and push for a yes vote with all we’ve got.

    I am on a unity ticket with Confessions on this.

    JOHN BOY @ #1875 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 9:54 pm

    I am on a unity ticket with Confessions on this.

    Ditto Bemused.

    Ditto here and so will all of our local branch. Boy are we itching for a chance to fight.

  15. As I scrolled up I just noticed that the YouGov poll is only 1005 — that’s a bluddy small sample … MOE????

    yes.. I worry it will fuck with WB’s BludgerTrack trend…

  16. Washington Post
    9 mins ·
    We’re in the midst of the most alarming escalation of rhetoric between the White House and Pyongyang since President Trump took office.

    Gosh imagine if that warmonger Hillary was elected!

  17. One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers and claims that he was not a Gascon aristocrat, but a descendant of a Sardinian fishmonger and that the Bergerac appellation stemmed from a small estate near Paris where he was born, and not in Gascony, and that he may have suffered tertiary syphilis. She also claims that he may likely have been homosexual and around 1640 became the lover of Charles Coypeau d’Assoucy, a writer and musician, until around 1653, when they became engaged in a bitter rivalry. This led to Bergerac sending d’Assoucy death threats that compelled him to leave Paris. The quarrel extended to a series of satirical texts by both men. Bergerac wrote Contre Soucidas (an anagram of his enemy’s name) and Contre un ingrat (Against an ingrate), while D’Assoucy counterattacked with Le Combat de Cyrano de Bergerac avec le singe de Brioché, au bout du Pont-Neuf (The battle of Cyrano de Bergerac with the monkey of Brioché, at the end of the Pont-Neuf). He also associated with Théophile de Viau, the French poet and libertine.

    Those were the days!

  18. Unless there is an overwhelming position taken by the LGBTI community to boycott the survey, I can not see how a non LGBTI supporter of ME can do anything but vote yes.

    We have no skin in this game apart from our support and to abstain or vote informally would reduce the chances of yes winning and be a kick in the guts to those we support.

  19. a r @ #1842 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:24 pm

    bemused @ #1758 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 10:13 pm

    Nope.
    ‘Partner’ is rubbish. Dancing partner? Business Partner? What?
    And it is not just a generational thing, my son refers to his wife as do others of his friendship group.

    Perhaps it’s regional then? All I know is that back in the States basically nobody used “partner” to refer to their spouse. Since coming to Queensland I feel like I get about a 60/40 split in favor of “partner” versus “husband”/”wife”. It’s awkward because my inclination is towards using “wife”.

    Queensland IS different.
    That is well known.

  20. Kevin Bonham @ #1872 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1854 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:34 pm

    The difference is my prose cuts through and your turgid self indulgent monologues are glossed over and ignored thereafter.

    Cuts through? Your inane drolleries are not even as memorable as P1’s strategic blunders. You’re about as likely to cut anything in a debate as pink fluff stolen from the Mardi Gras and glued to some small slowly rotating rubbery whirring thing.

    My old man told me never give anything away. There’s plenty of money to be made in second hand pink fluff!

    I’ll bow to your greater knowledge about the 1001 uses for rotating rubbery whirry things.

    Plus, my inane drolleries are what keep you coming back for more!

  21. JOHN BOY @ #1877 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:56 pm

    As I scrolled up I just noticed that the YouGov poll is only 1005 — that’s a bluddy small sample … MOE????

    yes.. I worry it will fuck with WB’s BludgerTrack trend…

    It is not too bad for a national figure.
    The MOE doesn’t decrease linearly but as the square of the sample size.
    In other words, you have to go a lot bigger to make a lot of difference to the MOE.

  22. Kevin,

    If you’re still here.

    Don’t you and William just work with the Primary numbers when you do your aggregates?

    If so YouGov isn’t that far away from the other polls.

  23. briefly @ #1879 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:57 pm

    One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers and claims that he was not a Gascon aristocrat, but a descendant of a Sardinian fishmonger and that the Bergerac appellation stemmed from a small estate near Paris where he was born, and not in Gascony, and that he may have suffered tertiary syphilis. She also claims that he may likely have been homosexual and around 1640 became the lover of Charles Coypeau d’Assoucy, a writer and musician, until around 1653, when they became engaged in a bitter rivalry. This led to Bergerac sending d’Assoucy death threats that compelled him to leave Paris. The quarrel extended to a series of satirical texts by both men. Bergerac wrote Contre Soucidas (an anagram of his enemy’s name) and Contre un ingrat (Against an ingrate), while D’Assoucy counterattacked with Le Combat de Cyrano de Bergerac avec le singe de Brioché, au bout du Pont-Neuf (The battle of Cyrano de Bergerac with the monkey of Brioché, at the end of the Pont-Neuf). He also associated with Théophile de Viau, the French poet and libertine.

    Those were the days!

    It’s great that PB indulges you and lets you reminisce about your youth!

  24. Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1879 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:57 pm

    One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers

    Not much has changed…specially the bit where rivalry is conducted by the exchange of satirical texts… 🙂

  25. I sense you might be missing the point that Confessions and I are old sparring partners.

    Nah, as a lurker of 4 years before John Boy account spoke, I’ve noticed, lol.
    It is the way to go – the ONLY sensible way for a Labor voter that is..

  26. briefly @ #1878 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:57 pm

    One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers and claims that he was not a Gascon aristocrat, but a descendant of a Sardinian fishmonger and that the Bergerac appellation stemmed from a small estate near Paris where he was born, and not in Gascony, and that he may have suffered tertiary syphilis. She also claims that he may likely have been homosexual and around 1640 became the lover of Charles Coypeau d’Assoucy, a writer and musician, until around 1653, when they became engaged in a bitter rivalry. This led to Bergerac sending d’Assoucy death threats that compelled him to leave Paris. The quarrel extended to a series of satirical texts by both men. Bergerac wrote Contre Soucidas (an anagram of his enemy’s name) and Contre un ingrat (Against an ingrate), while D’Assoucy counterattacked with Le Combat de Cyrano de Bergerac avec le singe de Brioché, au bout du Pont-Neuf (The battle of Cyrano de Bergerac with the monkey of Brioché, at the end of the Pont-Neuf). He also associated with Théophile de Viau, the French poet and libertine.

    Those were the days!

    Tertiary syphilitic noses were subject to collapse into an ugly ‘saddle’ shape as the cartilage of the nose eroded – a disfiguring sign of shame, or deformed with the bulbous deformity of excess granulation (inflammatory) tissue. Much room to speculate on M. Bergerac and his nose therefore, including the Renaissance Rhinoplasty!

    When I was a new graduate, the Professor of Medicine took me aside to counsel me to be sure to pick a speciality for which there was no imminent cure. People used to make a living out of syphilis came his warning … . until they discovered penicillin. Dermatology was the safe bet – never get better and never die!

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