BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. I’m willing to go out on a limb, William Bowe, and assert that these few days since the postal survey became a likely event, have been the busiest on this forum outside of a federal or state election campaign, and also excluding the periods when PMs were rolled (ie Rudd, Gillard, Abbott).

  2. Might listen to the audio when I get home if I can be bothered, but wouldn’t want to put anyone into a state of further trepidation.

  3. Oh ok, “what the hell” made it sound like the reference was a complete surprise and that you hadn’t heard it at all in the interview

  4. With any luck the High Court will rule against the government on this ABS survey. In the meantime thousands enrol to vote increasing Labor and Green vote.

  5. Members of my family, who generally keep their political thoughts to themselves and are almost allergic to activism, have suddenly become very vocal….roused to voice their horror at overt, deliberate public discrimination and to declare their contempt for the all the Liberals, and particularly for Turnbull and Abbott.

    Whether this idiotic venture goes the full distance or not, the numbers in favour of ME will surge and the LNP will take a hit….possibly enough of a hit to finish them off entirely for the life of this Parliament.

  6. It’s certainly been busy, Alias, but there would have been a number of big ticket non-election political events over the years that made it at least as much so.

  7. [William Bowe
    It’s certainly been busy, Alias, but there would have been a number of big ticket non-election political events over the years that made it at least as much so.
    ]

    She and he who must not be named come to mind. 👿

  8. antonbruckner11 @ #134 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:42 am

    Bemused – now we have a vulture fund owning a major law firm. This really is neoliberalism gone mad.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/10/stockmarket-crash-how-slater-and-gordon-became-a-casualty-of-the-neoliberal-dream

    That is an interesting article but I think the bits that interest me might not be quite what interests you and other lawyers.
    These points for example:

    Access to the law has become so cripplingly expensive and the system so procedurally bloated that lawyers have had to engineer new ways to lure customers who were otherwise shut out of buying their services. This has given rise to stratagems like no win no fee, litigation funding, litigation lenders and a whole battery of “access to justice” contrivances.

    In the process, the issue of hyper-inflated fees has been left untouched.

  9. For voters, it’s all really pretty simple. If you ask them “Do you favour SSM/ME?” They will say YES or NO. Mostly, they are inclined to say YES.

    To say NO is not only to express a view on marriage and the law, it is also to align yourself with the Crazy Branches, to offer them encouragement. To say NO is to approve of the ghastly spectacle of deliberate public insult of the innocent and the vulnerable, and to overlook the LNP incompetence that gives it licence.

    The NOES are going to get thrashed.

  10. Voice Endeavour @ #135 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:43 am

    @ lizzie – I believe ‘queer’ is a catchall to cover anything that doesn’t fit within the previous labels or straight, considering that gender identity and sexuality can be fluid and non binary.

    ‘Queer’ used to be rather pejorative but without the sexual overtones.
    e.g. ‘Queer as a 3 dollar bill’.
    Of course it got Enid Blyton Noddy books into trouble for the passage about Noddy “feeling a little queer”, but that was after the meaning of queer had shifted.

  11. briefly @ #332 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 3:57 pm

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/rowena-murray/the-postal-plebiscite-is-being-set-up-so-the-no-is-binding-and_a_23071351/

    The past 24 hours in Australian politics has exasperated, frustrated and hurt people and families.

    I do wish commentators would desist with the ‘Australian Politics’ malarkey. To tar the totality of Australian politics with the sins of an easily identifiable and defined subset is really just a form of bias. It is the Coalition that is making a mess of Australian politics. The simple solution to that is to call them out on it, refuse to share the blame they solely own, and promote the fact that they will need to suffer a significant political setback to change their ways (and that such a setback is well and truly deserved).

  12. My understanding of S&G is they were duped. They were encouraged to buy a large catalogue of files in the UK that comprised cases in hearing loss (I think ??). The Tories soon afterwards changed the law and made hearing loss non-compensable. The result is that S&G paid a poultice for files that would never turn a single pound in fees.

    The partners apparently seek to recover from the sellers of the caseload.

    Everything can be commoditised these days…even insurable losses that arise due to personal injury…

  13. ratsak
    briefly @ #332 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 3:57 pm

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/rowena-murray/the-postal-plebiscite-is-being-set-up-so-the-no-is-binding-and_a_23071351/

    The past 24 hours in Australian politics has exasperated, frustrated and hurt people and families.

    I do wish commentators would desist with the ‘Australian Politics’ malarkey. To tar the totality of Australian politics with the sins of an easily identifiable and defined subset is really just a form of bias. It is the Coalition that is making a mess of Australian politics.

    Yes….very pertinent, R.

  14. Guytaur at 4.39

    The best thing about that SMH article is the consistent use of the word ‘survey’. Legally that is the most accurate term.

  15. Meanwhile…

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    49m
    Caption this. Pauline Hanson talks to Malcolm Roberts in the senate chamber. Tweet your captions back @GuardianAus #auspol #auspolitics

  16. If BT were to use the simpler methodology, the number of seats for the Liberals in NT, ACT, Tas, Sa would be 0.

    I don’t believe you’re correct about Barker here. The 7.1% swing figure for South Australia is strictly Labor-versus-Coalition, so clearly Labor wouldn’t overturn the 15.2% margin. It should not be taken to imply that there would also be a 7.1% swing from the Coalition to the Nick Xenophon Team, such as would cause the latter to win Barker. BludgerTrack makes no judgement on this.

  17. Presumably if the so called anti-sweetheart laws had been in effect when Shorten was a union bod then the sweetheart deals would not have occurred and he would not have been in gaol.
    Don’t suppose the “journalists” thought of that.

  18. [guytaur
    All Optus has to do to show support for a yes campaign is to make their yes rainbow coloured
    ]

    Nice!

    It will be interesting what businesses do come out in support.

    Obviously some business leaders already have but will any businesses themselves come out.

    With the polling figures it’s hard to see many businesses, if any, come out in support of the “no” campaign.

  19. I hope this works, apologies if it has already been posted.

    A message from Tim Minchin; OK, he posted it to his Facebook page and it’s worth tracking down as I am a luddite when it comes to sharing things on the computer.

  20. [guytaur
    Barney.

    There are many. Qantas is bjut one. Major banks like the ANZ for example have GayTM’s ™ at Mardi Gras]

    GayTMs?

    That’s just pure evil.

    Maybe they could also rebrand their branches gAyNZ. 🙂

  21. jenauthor @ #312 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 3:27 pm

    I agree with Bemused summation of Shorten v Lane.

    Shorten got. Avery good run and apart from a couple of gotcha attempts, Shorten was permitted to explain the case clearly in any question he was asked

    I am also firmly of the belief that any politician, worthy of his salt, will relish the opportunity to knock over the points put up by his opponents.
    Lane did him a service by raising them for him to knock over.
    One of the key things sales people learn is how to flush out any objections and deal with them. If they remain un-stated, they are not dealt with, and will block a sale. It is the same in politics.

Comments are closed.