BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. guytaur @ #447 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:40 pm

    The article that Gerard Hendersoson is whining means Richard Glover broke the ABC memo not to comment.

    I don’t necessarily agree with such a memo being issued, but I can see the logic of it.

    The terms ‘equal’ or ‘equality’ are not neutral.

    The ABC is trying to not be placed in a position where it is favouring one side.

    But I really do look forward to when a similar memo is issued proscribing other value laden terms such as ‘pro-life’.

  2. That is utter rubbish and appears to be the product of a disordered mind.

    I really do suggest you seek appropriate therapy to help you get over you obsessions and delusions.

    Now to me that means you accused someone of having a disordered mind, requires therapy, is obsessive and delusional. Quite a lot to pack into one comment and dismiss it as ” describing certain behaviours”.

  3. Barney

    I say “horrifying, terrifying, grotesque, nauseating, hideous, …”

    That too. 🙂
    I like grotesque best. Like an evil goblin.

  4. guytaur @ #447 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:40 pm

    The article that Gerard Hendersoson is whining means Richard Glover broke the ABC memo not to comment.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/richard-glover-its-time-australia-gave-equal-marriage-a-fair-go-20170808-gxrjxk.html

    This bit says it all for me …

    In what is, of course, a less bloody and physical battle, marriage equality has become the battlefield for the proxy war between Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott.

    If you vote ‘no’, Abbott wins. If you vote ‘yes’, Mal wins. If you don’t want either of those cretins to win this stupid proxy war, your best option is to boycott. Because Shorten will win within 100 days of the next election anyway.

  5. mikehilliard @ #454 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:44 pm

    That is utter rubbish and appears to be the product of a disordered mind.

    I really do suggest you seek appropriate therapy to help you get over you obsessions and delusions.

    Now to me that means you accused someone of having a disordered mind, requires therapy, is obsessive and delusional. Quite a lot to pack into one comment and dismiss it as ” describing certain behaviours”.

    I did elaborate later.
    The behaviours are.
    1. Obsessions about the ABC
    2. Delusions about what is said on the ABC

    To so persistently engage in such behaviours does raise questions.

  6. P1

    “If you vote ‘no’, Abbott wins. If you vote ‘yes’, Mal wins. If you don’t want either of those cretins to win this stupid proxy war, your best option is to boycott. Because Shorten will win within 100 days of the next election anyway.”

    ———————————————————-

    I think I speak for almost all of the posters on Poll Bludger when I say that whether Turnbull, Trumble or Shorten wins is of no importance in this issue. The issue is what best serves the interests of LGBTIQ people seeking equality. Just for once, The Politics should not be the driver.

  7. Bemused

    The memo cannot be legally enforced. Why? Fairfax is paying Glover to express his opinion. So just on employment grounds ABC is interfering with Glover’s right to earn income elsewhere.

  8. lizzie @ #455 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:50 pm

    Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 4h4 hours ago

    Here’s the ANZUS treaty in full. It DOES NOT oblige us to join the US in any war. http://australianpolitics.com/1951/09/01/anzus-treaty-text.html … via @mfarnsworth

    Maybe. I read a book a long time ago (by John Pilger? not sure) that says the real treaty (which is top secret) between the UK, USA and Australia does oblige us to do so whenever asked. Which is why we always have.

    Depends if you are a conspiracy theorist or not, I guess.

  9. TPOF @ #457 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:51 pm

    P1

    “If you vote ‘no’, Abbott wins. If you vote ‘yes’, Mal wins. If you don’t want either of those cretins to win this stupid proxy war, your best option is to boycott. Because Shorten will win within 100 days of the next election anyway.”

    ———————————————————-

    I think I speak for almost all of the posters on Poll Bludger when I say that whether Turnbull, Trumble or Shorten wins is of no importance in this issue. The issue is what best serves the interests of LGBTIQ people seeking equality. Just for once, The Politics should not be the driver.

    AHAHAHA !

  10. Who cares what Abbott thinks/votes on these days? I saw that Bronnie Bishop was also dug up by some channel to comment on the MESSM issue.

    These two were poor leaders when they had their day and the represent even poorer voices to listen to today.

    Their views, in relation to this issue, is and attempt to again appear relevant. Most voters have stopped listening to both/either some time ago.

  11. Evening all. I see I am not the only one to feel uncomfortable about Turnbull’s “All the way with the Orange Clown” foreign policy when I read headlines like this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/south-china-sea-dispute-china-sends-warships-after-us-freedom-of-navigation-patrol-20170811-gxuh47.html

    Am I the only one disturbed by the parallels to the blind march towards the start of World War One? Trump’s hamfisted diplomacy reminds me of a (dumbed down) version of Austria Hungary versus Serbia. Will somebody please take the matches away from the children.

  12. guytaur @ #461 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:54 pm

    Bemused

    The memo cannot be legally enforced. Why? Fairfax is paying Glover to express his opinion. So just on employment grounds ABC is interfering with Glover’s right to earn income elsewhere.

    ABC can direct its staff in the performance of their ABC duties.
    They cannot do so in relation to what they write for Fairfax.

  13. TPOF @ #457 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:51 pm

    I think I speak for almost all of the posters on Poll Bludger when I say that whether Turnbull, Trumble or Shorten wins is of no importance in this issue. The issue is what best serves the interests of LGBTIQ people seeking equality. Just for once, The Politics should not be the driver.

    Yes, I have noticed that on this issue PB does not seem to be very reflective of the wider community.

  14. I think I speak for almost all of the posters on Poll Bludger when I say that whether Turnbull, Trumble or Shorten wins is of no importance in this issue. The issue is what best serves the interests of LGBTIQ people seeking equality. Just for once, The Politics should not be the driver.

    This!

  15. TWO WHOLE DAYS WITHOUT THE INTERNET!

    The house I was minding while a friend was in Quinceland, was an old cottage which had been renovated. Inside and out. However, not between the walls where the wiring is. So, it went on the fritz for half the house while I was there. Hence, no TV, no internet, no nuttin!

    Boy am I glad to be home!

  16. One thing I heard on the way home was that the AEC said that, since the postal poll on SSM had been called, 68000 had updated their address or registered to vote. I’m thinking they were mostly young people who want to make sure the old conservative codgers in Canberra, and elsewhere, get their message.

  17. [guytaur
    The article that Gerard Hendersoson is whining means Richard Glover broke the ABC memo not to comment.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/richard-glover-its-time-australia-gave-equal-marriage-a-fair-go-20170808-gxrjxk.html]

    I can’t see how this could constitute breaking any ABC rules.

    It is abundantly clear he is not writing as an ABC employee, there is nothing in the piece that identifies him as an ABC employee.

    If his contract allows him to write for other media outlets I don’t see how they can expect to hold editorial control over his work for that other outlet.

    Social media that identifies him with the ABC would be a different matter, not that I particularly agree with the direction in the first place.

  18. Socrates @ #463 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Am I the only one disturbed by the parallels to the blind march towards the start of World War One? Trump’s hamfisted diplomacy reminds me of a (dumbed down) version of Austria Hungary versus Serbia. Will somebody please take the matches away from the children.

    Not so easy Socrates.

    Before launching a pre-emptive attack, Trump would presumably meet Mattis, his Chief of Staff John Kelly, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford and the White House National Security Adviser Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster.

    However, it would “really be uncharted territory” if they sought to stall or slow down an order from the President, Blair said.

    Under the existing War Powers Act of 1973, a president is also not required to seek congressional approval for any military action until 60 days after the start of a war.

    With new legislation in January, lawmakers Ted Liu, a Democrat from California, and Senator Edward Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, sought to stop the President from launching a first-strike nuclear attack until Congress declares war, but the effort hasn’t gone anywhere and is unlikely to do so with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/if-trump-wants-a-first-nuclear-strike-against-north-korea-his-advisers-have-few-options-20170811-gxud1v.html

  19. “I think I speak for almost all of the…”

    TPOF I’ve got to say I cringe when people presume to speak for almost all of any group. You might be right but it’s still irks me. For the record though I do agree with you on this but reserve the right to speak for myself.

  20. The inexorable logic is that the expression of the people will have political effects. Everyone understands that, including all the voters.

    The democrats – the Constitutionalists – among us would prefer not to have a spectacle of deliberate public denunciation and degradation of our much loved brothers and sisters, parents, children, friends and partners. But if this is to happen, then the people will express themselves on it. There is just no doubt at all that in this country as in others, equality, decency and dignity will defeat malice, cheating and fear.

    I’m not afraid of democracy, though I cannot help despising the demagoguery of the LNP and cowardice of Turnbull.

    There will be just one winner from this. It will be equality. All of us should be bending our efforts to that end.

  21. One thing I heard on the way home was that the AEC said that, since the postal poll on SSM had been called, 68000 had updated their address or registered to vote

    I don’t know about anyone else, but that call to update your enrollment details has been on high rotation in my facebook feed the last day or so with friends sharing and tagging people in it.

  22. William Bowe @ #434 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 6:29 pm

    Allow me to save you some money, Adrian. You haven’t been defamed, because you haven’t identified yourself here. That said, Bemused shouldn’t invoke mental illness in his personal attacks.

    Thanks for your concern WB, but I can assure you that it won’t cost me any money, and I am aware of the er impedement that you mention.

    Like any common garden bully, the poster known as bemused will act tough when he thinks he’s achieved his objective, but fold like a pack of cards when confronted.

    Anyway, that’s it from me on this subject…

  23. I was pleased to hear today that Justice Michael Kirby had been persuaded overnight by the speech Bill Shorten gave yesterday in support of taking part in the plebiscite.

    I wonder if Rex Douglas might show Bill a bit of respect now as well? Or is that too much to hope for? ; )

  24. C@tmomma @ #483 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    I was pleased to hear today that Justice Michael Kirby had been persuaded overnight by the speech Bill Shorten gave yesterday in support of taking part in the plebiscite.

    I wonder if Rex Douglas might show Bill a bit of respect now as well? Or is that too much to hope for? ; )

    it was a great speech

    congrats to whoever wrote it

  25. [ItzaDream

    Before launching a pre-emptive attack, Trump would presumably meet Mattis, his Chief of Staff John Kelly, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford and the White House National Security Adviser Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster.]

    Doesn’t the Order require explicit agreement by the restating of the order by one of an approved group.

    I think that’s what you’re getting at with the people you named but was under the impression the VP was also included.

  26. briefly

    But if this is to happen, then the people will express themselves on it. There is just no doubt at all that in this country as in others, equality, decency and dignity will defeat malice, cheating and fear.

    Yes to that. Good post.

  27. [guytaur
    Barney

    Well it is Henderson doing the whining.]

    I thought so but your grammar gives the impression that it’s your opinion that he’s breaking the directive.

    The article that Gerard Hendersoson is whining means Richard Glover broke the ABC memo not to comment.

    🙂

  28. It looks like 16 & 17 yo’s will be unable to vote in the PP. However of course it seems many are enrolling to vote at the next election in any case.

    The Australian Electoral Commission says 16- and 17-year-olds will not be able to vote in the postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage.

    “There has been speculation that 16- and 17-year-olds will be allowed to participate in the marriage survey. This is not correct,” a statement from AEC says.

    “The survey instruments will be sent to those who are on the roll; 16- and 17-year-olds are not on the roll.”

    Acting Special Minister of State Mathias Cormann also said the vote would not extend to teenagers under the age of 18.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-campaign-proposals-considered/news-story/5e35d6fb73b03ce5b2201c61953e0138

  29. Barney in Go Dau @ #487 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    [ItzaDream

    Before launching a pre-emptive attack, Trump would presumably meet Mattis, his Chief of Staff John Kelly, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford and the White House National Security Adviser Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster.]

    Doesn’t the Order require explicit agreement by the restating of the order by one of an approved group.

    I think that’s what you’re getting at with the people you named but was under the impression the VP was also included.

    Pleading ignorance BiGD. It’s all too terrifying to think about. They were snaps from the Washington Post via SMH which just came on line this arvo. Here again:

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/if-trump-wants-a-first-nuclear-strike-against-north-korea-his-advisers-have-few-options-20170811-gxud1v.html

  30. mh

    So the AEC says, but they’re not running the show.

    They do however control the list of who can vote.

    I can’t see the ABS making their own list.

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