BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. CTar1

    I don’t get it, the AEC website says you can enrol if your 16-17. Or does that mean you’re just enrolled not on the electoral roll?

  2. mikeh:

    You can enrol to vote at 16-17 but you won’t be eligible to vote until you’re 18. It’s a sensible thing in my view, to ensure that people who turn 18 are already enrolled and aren’t disenfranchised in the event of an election because they waited until they were 18 to enroll,

  3. TPOF it’s no big deal, just a pet peeve of mine. Hark’s back to the days when every RWNJ in the US claimed to speak for the moral majority.

  4. fess

    Yes I understand that and agree. But his postal survey isn’t a vote under the control of the AEC. The only criteria is that you need to be enrolled which the AEC allows. Of course the government will work that to whatever end suits its means.

  5. mikeh:

    You actually don’t get added to the electoral roll until you are 18. If the ABS is given the electoral roll to work with then there shouldn’t be any 16 or 17yos on it.

  6. Just a twist to the enrolment debate.

    I’m talking a real vote, not this survey thingy.

    What happens if you pre-enrol to vote and an election is called but your birthday is between the close of enrolments and election day?

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #509 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:59 pm

    Just a twist to the enrolment debate.

    I’m talking a real vote, not this survey thingy.

    What happens if you pre-enrol to vote and an election is called but your birthday is between the close of enrolments and election day?

    You have to be 18 on election day, in order to be able to vote. I know this to be true because my youngest turned 18 on election day in 2013 and so was able to vote.

  8. mikeh:

    I’ve actually mused about lowering the voting age to the age at which you can legally gain employment. If you pay taxes you should be able to have a say about their distribution is what I’m thinking.

  9. I heard Tim Wilson briefly on the Karvelas drive program regarding the silent electoral roll. From what he was saying – and it makes sense – the AEC is not handing rolls over to anyone. Instead, the ABS will contract the AEC to conduct the mail out. So, for practical purposes the AEC will conduct the survey, but as an agent of the ABS and governed by the sort of laws that would apply if the ABS was doing it itself.

    In every way, the legal structure of this unscientific survey is inconsistent with the practical process of undertaking it. I’ll be genuinely interested to see the extent to which the High Court takes into account the patent fictionality of the legal process although it is quite possible that might not be relevant if the real issue is whether the Minister’s direction to the ABS was invalid.

  10. fess

    +1 on that. Also if you can have sex + kids ‘legally’ why not have a vote in your future. I’m constantly surprised at how clued up 16 y olds are. They still live in a world of colour, not as jaded as us.

  11. Rex Douglas @ #516 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    Player One @ #514 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #511 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:00 pm

    And, by the way, oh I’m sooo scared of you, Bemused and your sneering put-downs. Not.

    bemused is the reason C+ has a ‘block’ feature. Make use of it.

    shouldn’t have to if bemused was just nice to people in this social setting

    Not possible, Rex. After many years of observation I have come to the conclusion that Bemused is functionally incapable of being nice to other posters for an extended period of time. Sort of like an itch that he has to scratch. Even after his periodic bannings from PB by Mr Bowe he just gets straight back to it asap, after he is allowed to return.

    Sad.

  12. C@tmomma @ #519 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:12 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #516 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    Player One @ #514 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #511 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:00 pm

    And, by the way, oh I’m sooo scared of you, Bemused and your sneering put-downs. Not.

    bemused is the reason C+ has a ‘block’ feature. Make use of it.

    shouldn’t have to if bemused was just nice to people in this social setting

    Not possible, Rex. After many years of observation I have come to the conclusion that Bemused is functionally incapable of being nice to other posters for an extended period of time. Sort of like an itch that he has to scratch. Even after his periodic bannings from PB by Mr Bowe he just gets straight back to it asap, after he is allowed to return.

    Sad.

    perhaps you could show him how to do it by being nicer to me… ?

  13. “…[Abbott] knows they cannot win on the merits of their argument,” explains Wolfson, noting that Australians already overwhelmingly back gay marriage, “so they have to make the debate about something else.” That’s why Abbott announced that this was about political correctness and freedom of speech rather than gay marriage.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-is-ripping-his-antigay-marriage-strategy-out-of-the-us-playbook-20170811-gxu2j2.html

  14. C@tmomma @ #513 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:00 pm

    bemused @ #504 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:43 pm

    C@tmomma @ #480 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:11 pm

    Adrian,
    Bemused is a flat track internet bully. Don’t take what he says about you to heart. : )

    I see the gangs all coming together again.

    Well, think yourself lucky you got away with your vile behaviour for as long as you did.

    And, by the way, oh I’m sooo scared of you, Bemused and your sneering put-downs. Not.

    Bizarre behaviour.

  15. mikeh:

    I’m not sure about the parenting thing. So many parents I’ve met I’ve often thought they should not be allowed to vote!

  16. bemused @ #526 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:17 pm

    C@tmomma @ #513 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:00 pm

    bemused @ #504 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:43 pm

    C@tmomma @ #480 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 7:11 pm

    Adrian,
    Bemused is a flat track internet bully. Don’t take what he says about you to heart. : )

    I see the gangs all coming together again.

    Well, think yourself lucky you got away with your vile behaviour for as long as you did.

    And, by the way, oh I’m sooo scared of you, Bemused and your sneering put-downs. Not.

    Bizarre behaviour.

    Predictable response.

  17. C@tmomma @ #521 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:12 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #516 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    Player One @ #514 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #511 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:00 pm

    And, by the way, oh I’m sooo scared of you, Bemused and your sneering put-downs. Not.

    bemused is the reason C+ has a ‘block’ feature. Make use of it.

    shouldn’t have to if bemused was just nice to people in this social setting

    Not possible, Rex. After many years of observation I have come to the conclusion that Bemused is functionally incapable of being nice to other posters for an extended period of time. Sort of like an itch that he has to scratch. Even after his periodic bannings from PB by Mr Bowe he just gets straight back to it asap, after he is allowed to return.

    Sad.

    Oh dear, all because I called bullshit on Adrian’s post. Sad.

  18. confessions

    Thanks for that link to the AEC statement. I wonder how much the administrative bods implementing this survey have actually been able to plan the process. I suspect it will be disastrous. And I know that Turnbull will just bleat and bleat that it was all Labor’s fault for not agreeing to a real, live plebiscite.

  19. C@ as I said before, what I’d love to see is a standardised protest letter that you can slip into the envelope along with the survey question sheet.

  20. bemused @ #529 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #521 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:12 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #516 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    Player One @ #514 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #511 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:00 pm

    And, by the way, oh I’m sooo scared of you, Bemused and your sneering put-downs. Not.

    bemused is the reason C+ has a ‘block’ feature. Make use of it.

    shouldn’t have to if bemused was just nice to people in this social setting

    Not possible, Rex. After many years of observation I have come to the conclusion that Bemused is functionally incapable of being nice to other posters for an extended period of time. Sort of like an itch that he has to scratch. Even after his periodic bannings from PB by Mr Bowe he just gets straight back to it asap, after he is allowed to return.

    Sad.

    Oh dear, all because I called bullshit on Adrian’s post. Sad.

    No, Bemused, don’t try and re-frame the debate to suit yourself. It was not the ‘what’ but the ‘how’ you criticised Adrian.

    Deeply personal and offensive. And you’ve got plenty of form.

  21. cud chewer @ #533 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:23 pm

    C@ as I said before, what I’d love to see is a standardised protest letter that you can slip into the envelope along with the survey question sheet.

    Will it carry as much weight as individual messages people have taken the effort to write themselves?
    Someone earlier mentioned such messages not being counted.
    It is true there will not be an official count, but I would expect there to be scrutineers who would report roughly how many were including a message of objection in one way or another. Then the media will pick it up.

  22. cud chewer @ #531 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:23 pm

    C@ as I said before, what I’d love to see is a standardised protest letter that you can slip into the envelope along with the survey question sheet.

    Though, as has been commented before, the only person likely to see it is the person opening the envelopes, before they have to throw it away.

  23. C@tmomma @ #534 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:28 pm

    No, Bemused, don’t try and re-frame the debate to suit yourself. It was not the ‘what’ but the ‘how’ you criticised Adrian.

    Deeply personal and offensive. And you’ve got plenty of form.
    A poster here once did a tally of who was abusive on PB and I was well below the level of others.

    I mocked Adrian for his stupidity and lying.

  24. Tim Minchin has mocked the Turnbull government’s decision to hold a non-binding postal vote on same-sex marriage in a pithy music video uploaded to his social media channels.

    The Australian composer and comedian has reworked Peter Allen’s classic song I Still Call Australia Home into a tune called I Still Call Australia Homophobic.

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/tim-minchin-mocks-homophobic-politicians-in-reimagined-aussie-classic-20170811-gxu1v1.html

  25. bemused @ #535 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:32 pm

    C@tmomma @ #534 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:28 pm

    No, Bemused, don’t try and re-frame the debate to suit yourself. It was not the ‘what’ but the ‘how’ you criticised Adrian.

    Deeply personal and offensive. And you’ve got plenty of form.
    A poster here once did a tally of who was abusive on PB and I was well below the level of others.

    I mocked Adrian for his stupidity and lying.

    According to. You.

    See what I mean? Who do you think you are to be the judge, jury and verbal executioner of who is guilty of ‘stupidity and lying’? To the point where you cause that person emotional distress.

    As I stated originally, that just makes you a flat-track bully in my book.

  26. [confessions
    That editorial from the now Small Business Minister dated to 1993. He’s actually offered an apology today, which begs the question as to what the precedent is over a minister apologising for something happening 24 years ago.

    https://twitter.com/TomMcIlroy/status/895866457866682368]

    Apparently it’s come up before in different forums and he has had to apologise for it on multiple occasions in the past.

    Just shows the wonderful people the Nats attract.

  27. BK

    Gerard has got a touch of “Marvin” and “Droopy” .As Gerard said post the end of the
    Soviet Union and the fall of the Iron Curtain”The first ten years were the worst. And the second ten years: they were the worst, too. The third ten years I didn’t enjoy at all. After that, I went into a bit of a decline. ”
    Gerard on The Insiders

  28. C@tmomma @ #542 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:36 pm

    bemused @ #535 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:32 pm

    C@tmomma @ #534 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:28 pm

    No, Bemused, don’t try and re-frame the debate to suit yourself. It was not the ‘what’ but the ‘how’ you criticised Adrian.

    Deeply personal and offensive. And you’ve got plenty of form.
    A poster here once did a tally of who was abusive on PB and I was well below the level of others.

    I mocked Adrian for his stupidity and lying.

    According to. You.

    See what I mean? Who do you think you are to be the judge, jury and verbal executioner of who is guilty of ‘stupidity and lying’? To the point where you cause that person emotional distress.

    As I stated originally, that just makes you a flat-track bully in my book.

    Well take it up with William. He may not have agreed with my choice of words, but he and others were in agreement that Adrian was, to put it in its politest form, wRONg.

  29. You have to be 18 on election day, in order to be able to vote. I know this to be true because my youngest turned 18 on election day in 2013 and so was able to vote.

    I know it to be true because I turned 18 11 days after the 1980 federal election. I was not allowed to vote at that election, despite my name being on the list.

    The first federal election I was allowed to vote in was the one in 1983, the one that swept the Hawke led ALP to victory.

  30. Bemused: Were you just showing your stupidity or were you lying when you stated that my living 10 km NNE of Killcare put me in the middle of the ocean.

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