YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. [Pauline Hanson is planning to personally move the motion referring her embattled senator Malcolm Roberts to the High Court over dual citizenship concerns.]

    That’s simply so she can claim the high moral ground.

  2. AdamSpenceAU: So we’ve gone from ‘won’t somebody think of the children’ to ‘stick it to political correctness.’ Good reason for determining human rights. twitter.com/brihonyspeed/s…

    Another comment on Abbott

  5. Guytaur
    That does not support your position. And even if it did GG would have at least an equal claim against you on the basis of his religion.

  6. E

    It does actually. Targeting one poster continually in a pattern is bullying. Protected groups are minorities.

    eg any covered by anti discrimination laws. This includes in NSW at least LGBTI people.

    As I said I did not say GG had reached the level of breach yet. However the laws are clear and do exist.

  7. Energy meeting:
    Mal IMO is blaming elec consumers for not searching for the cheapest supplier. Suppliers did not inform customers of their options. It was kept very quiet.

  8. lizzie @ #349 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives party will advocate withdrawing from the United Nations refugee convention and halving the immigration intake in an election platform that will put political pressure on the Coalition as it attempts to woo back disaffected rightwing voters

    Cory making his move?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/09/cory-bernardis-party-calls-for-pulling-out-of-refugee-convention-and-halving-immigration?CMP=share_btn_tw

    His time in New York with the Koch brothers well spent (and we funded it)

  9. AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 42m42 minutes ago

    What a joke Turnbull has become. Outcome of meeting with energy retailers has resulted in them promising to produce a pamphlet #auspol

  10. The high court will be busy little bees.
    Over the course of about 26 hours, they have been assigned:
    2 senators to replace,
    2 senators to decide whether to replace.
    Decision on postal plebiscite

  11. G
    Well yes. If GG actually breached the law, the law would be breached. That is not the claim you were making , which is that GGs interaction with you was a breach or heading towards one.

  13. Mr Shelton said the ACL campaign would focus on the consequences of changing the definition of marriage. He said these would include censoring teaching in Christian and Muslim schools, making it easier for people to change their sex and the proliferation of Safe Schools-style programs.

    “All of this flies under the rainbow flag,” he said, adding the campaign would be “respectful to our fellow Australians”.

    I literally cannot even.

  14. Ludlam and Waters are trivial and will either result in an immediate recount order or get kicked to the Supreme Court as Court of Disputed Returns for the same outcome.

    The other 3 is still a lot.

  18. Hey come on, be fair. A pamphlet would rank so high on Trumble’s list of achievement it could well form the centerpiece of his reelection campaign.

  19. Voice Endeavour @ #315 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:25 am

    @ a r – in order to get access to my email, you need to try millions of possible combinations of passwords, whilst thrwarting the security systems of Google, who are smarter than you are.

    In order to get access to my mail, you need to lift a flap. I could lock it, in which case you would need to use some pliers to cut the lock, then lift flap. Either way, you could train a monkey to do it.

    How exactly is mail less secure?

    Try organizing a coordinated nationwide letterbox-robbing campaign, and it gets a bit harder.

    But to go on a nationwide phishing expedition, all I need is a small amount of commodity hardware and Tor (optional, though of course not using Tor is a good way to get caught), or a small chunk of cash to buy some time on someone else’s botnet. I can then quite easily send e-mails that look like they come from the ABS, the AEC, or whomever else I happen to feel like impersonating.

    Some will get caught by spam filters, yes. And by people smart enough to be aware of such attacks. But a surprising number will get through, and be taken seriously. Then I can get their voting links and use them to multiply my own vote, or make them think they’ve voted when they really haven’t, or sow general confusion and misinformation about the process, or all of the above.

    Point is, I don’t attack your e-mail account directly. I use social engineering to get you to do that for me. Or I take advantage of other vectors that let me get in sideways (perhaps your computer is already hosting malware, which is logging and transmitting your keystrokes to anyone who bothers to listen). And if you’re personally too smart to fall for that, it doesn’t matter because I’m targeting the entire nation and not any one particular individual. Some people are less smart, and not everyone uses Google.

    Though if you haven’t set up 2FA for your Gmail, don’t change your password regularly, and have used the same password on other sites, there’s a reasonable chance that I can get the password to your Gmail account by looking at a list of passwords stolen from other, less secure sites. Security only works when people take it seriously, and many people do not.

  21. You can be guaranteed that as soon as possible start moving away from the standard offer, the discount plans will disappear and the power companies will continue to act like bandits. Unbelievable

  23. Lizzie, thanks for the link to the long read

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/08/unlearning-the-myth-of-american-innocence

    It was interesting that she was awoken from the American dream by James Baldwin.

    But I have always been struck, in America, by an emotional poverty so bottomless, and a terror of human life, of human touch, so deep, that virtually no American appears able to achieve any viable, organic connection between his public stance and his private life.

    All of the western nations have been caught in a lie, the lie of their pretended humanism; this means that their history has no moral justification, and that the west has no moral authority.

    White Americans are probably the sickest and certainly the most dangerous people, of any colour, to be found in the world today

    And now I am prompted to contemplate my white male prosperous privileged view on my relationship with my country, with which I think I am increasingly falling out of love, mindful that being in love with country is but a short, if any, step away from nationalism, and that I reject Howard’s rejection of the black arm band view of history, and reconsider myself a member of the invading class, directly descendent therefrom, enjoying the luxury of my life, and it is very, at the expense of others, here or anywhere, and that to take from another is to take from self, and that sharing equally in the path to fulfillment, and why in the name of all that’s Holy are we governed the way we are and spawning the likes of Bernardi.

  24. CroweDM: Rodney Croome says Ron Merkel QC advises that government press release on postal vote enough to trigger court action this afternoon.

  25. A man accused of burgling a southern California home took a bathroom break and left DNA evidence in the toilet that led to his arrest, an investigator has said.

    The suspect “did his business and didn’t flush it” during the October break-in in the city of Thousand Oaks, said Detective Tim Lohman of the Ventura county sheriff’s office.

    The indiscretion allowed investigators to collect evidence to conduct a DNA profile. It matched another profile in a national database and detectives tracked down the suspect at his home in the nearby city of Ventura.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/09/scat-burglar-dna-evidence-left-in-toilet-leads-to-arrest-of-thief?CMP=share_btn_tw

  27. Well in good news for the government this is early enough that they may still get this done on time if they win in court though since the injunction will likely stop anything that requires funds that’s still not looking good.

  28. Someone earlier quoted Chan in the Grauniad saying because the plebiscite Bill was knocked back from being debated that it doesn’t count as a trigger.

    That would be a shaky argument. Failure to pass is the test. Denying the debate is as effective as rejecting at stopping a bill becoming legislated.

    The removal of the funding to the pro and con arguments is much more likely to remove the bill as a trigger. It would only remain a trigger in this case if the change was an amendment proposed by the Senate.

    I haven’t any ideas if it was or wasn’t.

  29. ItzaDream

    We have always suspected that Americans know nothing except their own country, which is ‘the greatest’. Fancy schools teaching no international geography.

  31. Michael Wyres‏ @mwyres · 10m10 minutes ago

    Which plebiscite appointed the ACL and Lyle Shelton to speak for all Christian Australians? #auspol

    This is a VERY good point. AFAIK the Christian Lobby is a very small group, not supported by all churches.

  34. BevanShields: BREAKING: Pauline Hanson to refer her own One Nation senator to the High Court
    brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politi… #auspol

  35. The post in The Guardian by Gabrielle Chan

    “I notice there is some chat in the thread that the plebiscite vote will provide a possible double-dissolution trigger. This is not the case.

    The vote was on a procedural matter to do with the bill – not the bill itself.

    Therefore the bill has not been rejected twice. So no DD trigger.”

  39. MagdaSzubanski: Abbott dsn’t care who what he destroys in his will 2 power. If u reject #politicsfromthepulpit say no 2 @TonyAbbottMHR vote yes #loveislove

  40. The irony of strongly Catholic countries such as Ireland and Argentina being able to steer changes to legislation in relation to SSM makes us look like a mob of hicks.

    Worse, Turnbull has proved to been weak and powerless being held captive to the right-wing Christian mob on his side of politics who now seem to be able to dominate the LNP policies on social issues.

  41. Statement from Pauline Hanson

    Statement on Senator Malcolm Roberts’ High Court Referral

    As the leader of One Nation I have always made it quite clear that there should be the highest level of openness, transparency and accountability in Government.
    With that in mind, One Nation will be supporting Senator Malcolm Roberts’ in his plan to refer himself to the High Court. It was always Senator Roberts’ intention to submit his citizenship documents for public scrutiny and, in light of the major parties decision not to hold a full inquiry into the citizenship of Senators, it was deemed that the High Court would provide Senator Roberts the best opportunity to prove he has complied with the Australian Constitution and is a lawfully elected Senator of the Australian Parliament.
    The people of Australia have a right to know if their representatives are elected according to the Constitution of Australia and we hope these actions taken by Senator Roberts’ serve as an example to all Parliamentarians that the onus is on them to prove to the people of Australia that they were legitimately elected under section 44 of the Australian Constitution.
    Senator Roberts has my full backing and total support from his fellow One Nation Senators.

  43. Very simple:

    YES to Marriage Equality!

    NO to a $122 MILLION Vox Pop!

    Agreed! Rights aren’t something that can be settled with an opinion poll.

    *yes yes, if we need to amend the Constitution then yes. but not in this case.

  45. @ A r –
    Sure, I’ll admit to some password re-use. You gain access to the facebook I never use, then you can get access to the twitter I also never use.

    But why would I reuse my email password? As your email is used for password resets, your email account is as important as all other accounts combined. It warrants its own password.

  47. Sprocket.

    Doesnt Malcolm Roberts not believe Australia actually exist? Something about his Sovereign Citizen beliefs? (Ie hes believes himself not be a citizen of Astralia)

  50. My understanding of bullying is that it implies a disparity in power between the two parties.

    This means that one party must be able to cause a detriment to the other, whether that might be a physical detriment, an organisational one or a legal one. You might argue that psychological injury should also be included, but I think that would need some pre-existing relationship.

    On this blog, we are all equally powerful (or powerless) apart from William, who can perhaps cause us a detriment by suspending our access, and most of us are anonymous as well. We are all able to leave at any time with no penalty.

    Therefore, I think that to talk of “bullying” between posters does violence to the meaning of the word and may trivialise its use in other contexts where people really do suffer.

    The fact that some of us are irrational, extremely persistent, perhaps use offensive language, etc may be reasons for William to ban them if the rest of us get too pissed off with them but can not constitute bullying as far as I can see.

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