The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.
Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.
Iom,
And I don’t think Chan is correct. I don’t think it’s black and white, but voting not to debate at all would likely be treated as a failure to pass similarly to tying a bill up in committee for an excessive time would be.
It’s all hypothetical, but I think it’s not as cut and dried as Chan makes out.
Mimhof
Agreed! Rights aren’t something that can be settled with an opinion poll.
The irony is that this postal thingo is actually far less scientifically accurate than a plebiscite as respondents are self-selecting and are not weighted for age, gender, etc, the way a real opinion poll would be. That’s why I called it a Vox Pop.
Ajm,
We all need to get a life.
DunneBreen: Human rights defender #TaraMoss tells #NPC #Canberra ‘Women In Media’ event that online abuse of women is a human rights issue. @amnestyOz pic.twitter.com/6SGrr71rfE
https://twitter.com/dunnebreen/status/895119054536495106
ratsak @ #401 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 1:03 pm
It’s quite simple. The HoR has passed the bill and sent it to the Senate. The Senate has declined to even debate it. If that isn’t “failure to pass” I’d bee more than astounded.
ratsak @ #403 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 1:05 pm
That was precisely my point! (Although expressed somewhat ponderously)
One article implies this isn’t a DD trigger because it hasn’t repassed the house, rather the Government senators proposed the Senate reconsider the bill.
(Which sounds kind of nuts but no weirder than the rest of this idiocy honestly)
Well that was a complete train wreck of a press conference from Malcolm Roberts and Pauline Hanson. Apparently Roberts’ High Court argument will revolve around the fact that the form he signed as a 19 year old referred to him as ‘a citizen of Britain and Colonies’. Ergo, as a colony, Australia, he was and therefore always has been a citizen of Australia.
Hmm.
The Constitution:
“If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.”
So it does need to pass the House twice.
C@t
“Well that was a complete train wreck of a press conference from Malcolm Roberts and Pauline Hanson. Apparently Roberts’ High Court argument will revolve around the fact that the form he signed as a 19 year old referred to him as ‘a citizen of Britain and Colonies’. Ergo, as a colony, Australia, he was and therefore always has been a citizen of Australia.”
Clearly the strategy is to ensure the High Court cannot make a decision because they cannot stop laughing at the argument. Shades of Monty Python here.
So, when the HC knocks this stupidity over Trumble will find some honour and resign yeah?
Do you really think the government (behind in the polls) would call a DD so that the people can decide which MPs and Senators can decide whether the people can decide whether the MPs and Senators should allow people to marry?
I clearly love politics enough to be on this blog, but that gives me a headache. Imagine how well it will go down at the pub.
TPOF
Yes, it does need to pass the House twice to be a DD trigger. The bit I don’t get is why the government wouldn’t do that pro forma rather than essentially informally asking the Senate to pretty please have another think.
By the way, Australia was never a colony of the United Kingdom – only the constituent states before Federation made them states of an Australian nation.
ratsak
Thanks I needed that laugh 🙂
Ratsak
Lulz. Turnbull will surrender the PM shop over his cold dead political career. And I wouldn’t be sure even then unless he manages to outlast Abbott first.
BW
On Amani I agree a RC needed. All those suits with faulty zips. LoL
If this ‘postal plebiscite’ happens I will be voting Yes.
Elaugaufein
I think it was sent straight back to the Senate because the Government wanted to progress the postal mail-out as quickly as possible under its timetable. It certainly would not have been interested in having a lengthy debate again in the reps. Also, I think it would not be interested at this precise time in creating a DD trigger, in case a DD was imposed on it.
I’m curious, how old is Roberts.
When he was 19, he signed something as a citizen of “The UK and Colonies”
Australia ceased to be 6, UK Colonies back in 1901, when we became one sovereign nation, with Queen Elizabeth II as our head of state.
So unless he is 135+ years old, he got some ‘splainin’ to do
CTar1
Would you vote ‘yes’ if AME advocates returning a spoilt paper as a positive protest?
S44 and the HC rulings are on the question of DUAL citizenship, not whether Australia can be lumped in with ‘the colonies’. You need to have made reasonable efforts to have renounced your other citizenship, and the HC precedents set a high bar for this.
Malcolm Roberts would be best advised to stick with the flaws in the Australia Act, or argue in the alternative, that the conspiracy led by the Rothschilds to enslave Western Society through one world government, whereby our soverignty is handed over tomthe United Nations to combat Climate Change…..
Yes it is true. A university educated Irish vet living on the Sunshine Coast has been failed for a visa on grounds of her spoken english! This farcical result is already being parodied in the UK:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40868315
There was a time when the minister responsible for such an embarrassing failure would be held accountable for his incompetence and be forced to resign. But those days are gone. Immigration minister Peter Dutton will pretend that the computer works as perfectly as health care on Manus Island. He has no intention of giving up his $350K per year of taxpayer paid income. Greed and ego rolled into one ugly package.
I wonder how many of Dutton’s own cabinet colleagues would pass the test? At least the foreign born ones should be forced to sit it.
Surely there’s already at least one DD trigger, standard business usually generates at least a few per term.
guytaur @ #415 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 1:16 pm
I’ll be here all week.
On Roberts
“Well that was a complete train wreck of a press conference from Malcolm Roberts and Pauline Hanson. Apparently Roberts’ High Court argument will revolve around the fact that the form he signed as a 19 year old referred to him as ‘a citizen of Britain and Colonies’. Ergo, as a colony, Australia, he was and therefore always has been a citizen of Australia.”
I really hope he goes with that. Australia was no longer a British colony then. It was a member of the British Commonwealth. Different thing.
And if they want a DD trigger, they will simply look through their back catalog of things that have been rejected once, at least 3 months ago, and move all of them again. I’m sure there’s some crap in there that would get rejected again.
E
DD is a moot point. Except if its used for leadership tactics. Of course whomever is doing so is IMHO stupid as the polling i crystal clear.
Much as progressives would like an election now it will take extraordinary events for one to even be considered even if possible.
From the Guardian blog:
“Tony Burke has challenged the Coalition’s citizenship legislation in the lower house, calling its tougher English requirements snobbish and suggesting most Australians could not pass the proposed new tests.”
It appears that the Government is heading for a policy of No Irish Need Apply.
Voice Endeavour
Being born prior to 1901 would explain a lot about Roberts world view, but perhaps he was referring to India?
Sorry, I’m trying to understand why the Government didn’t repass this through the House first. Ratsak suggested fear of a DD trigger , I was stating that it seems unlikely because surely such already exists.
I’m still not convinced Roberts is a native of this reality. But as long as he demonstrates sentience I have no problems with that.
@ mikehilliard – haha, would be great.
But even then, India went from a colony to a Dominion in 1947, and to a Republic in 1950, Roberts was born in 1955, if you count wikipedia as Empirical evidence.
TPOF – I will be voting Yes if it happens.
E
Already exist or not doesn’t matter as VE points out they can soon create one.. Its up to a PM to choose to trigger a DD not if one exists or not.
I think thats the relevant point and why the comments on a DD online are overblown.
VE
Let’s just settle for Robert’s being an idiot then.
@ ela – some of the 5-7 who supported a free vote with no plebiscite are in the HoR right?
Seems like nothing to be gained, and a huge potential risk if they crossed the floor.
Roberts, I understand, was born in India after India ceased to be a colony.
According to Indian law he is an Indian citizen simply because he was born there..
if the PP happens I will be voting yes. If someone like William or Antony Green says you can add a rebuke as a comment without making your vote invalid I will do that too.
Roberts actively taking up British citizenship as an adult would have negated his Indian birthright citizenship. So the British citizenship thing probably negates the Indian citizenship thing.
(Parents can’t cause a child to lose Indian citizenship by applying for stuff on their behalf which is why I stipulated as an adult. Not that it matters for much other than pub trivia purposes Indian citizenship was changed such that it doesn’t have birthright simply by location citizenship anymore).
Turnbull has given the energy retailers a stern talking to, and they agreed to send us a letter.
The only one winning out of all this Turnbull shit is Australia Post!
In Sue v Hill (1999) 163 ALR 648, the High Court of Australia decided, in a binding ruling, that the United Kingdom is a “foreign power” within the meaning of the Constitution, and therefore that holders of British citizenship are ineligible for election to the Federal Parliament.
Roberts was not eligible unless he took “all reasonable steps” to rescind his British citizenship before the date of the election.
I predict QT will be EXTRA shouty today.
guytaur @ #427 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 1:24 pm
That’s what I thought. Let’s just assume that a DD trigger does exist. It doesn’t matter, because the Government would be insane to actually pull it given their current standing in the polls.
Unless they credit the Yougov polling, but even that’s a coin-toss for them.
Puff
So true! Buying shares in Aust Post today.
Further to El’s query about why it was not put through the Reps again first, I think that Trumble couldn’t care less what happens as long as it can be taken off the political agenda as soon as possible.
This is killing the Coalition and hard-heads like Cormann, even if they personally oppose it, would rather still see ME go ahead than have the internal Coalition divisions remain open and raw into 2018.
This absurd process decided on last Monday has been determined as the best way forward to get the matter off the agenda. First, the appearance of giving the plebiscite one more go. Then the postal ballot which, once it is over, will allow for a vote in Parliament. I suspect that Trumble would be delighted if the High Court knocked out the ballot and he used that as an excuse to put the matter to Parliament. Although, his political incompetence being such, I can’t see that being the end of the matter if he tries to give Ministers a free vote.
That said, my opposition to a postal vox pop is absolute and I would love to see the HC knock it out, even if that is to Trumble’s political benefit.
El
That is probably right but he’s told so many stories and said numerous times he’ll produce documentation that it’s an ‘unkown’.
It’s likely that he’s not smart enough to know the answer.
abcnews: ANZ refutes reports it laundered criminal funds
ab.co/2unNVc4 (Pic: AAP) pic.twitter.com/HUCEKkXhtU
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/895128263785234433
Malcom Roberts turning out to be a British/Indian/Australian/Sovereign Citizen would be pretty damn funny I admit.
TPOF
That’s what he wants but the chances of it being off the agenda is about Nil.
I like this 🙂